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Monday, November 22, 2010

Manny Mondays: Return of the Irish Famine....For Jobs?

So much for the "low/no corporate taxes or regulations" (and "free markets") meme as the cure-all in that magical imaginary paradise where everyone, including the global elites and their handmaidens, are honest and altruistic, and things are certainly nothing gamed or fraudulent for the benefit of a few. Ireland is merely the latest domino to fall in the aftermath of the global credit bubble, and it's citizens now must be "austeritized" to save large European banks and large banker bonuses. And silly me, I didn't realize that Ireland also had the CRA and Fannie/Freddie as the main cause in distorting the housing market over there as well. Oh, they didn't have those two things? Nevermind. But I digress.

Now that an IMF/EU bailout of Ireland appears imiment, another crisis is heating up in Ireland, namely the mass exodus of people fleeing the country in search of jobs. This article in the NY Times about thousands of people fleeing Ireland in search of jobs caught my eye over the weekend.

Here are a couple of key excerpts from the article:

Experts say about 65,000 people left Ireland last year, and some estimate that the number may be more like 120,000 this year. At first, most of those leaving were immigrants returning home to Central Europe. But increasingly, the experts say, it is the Irish themselves who are heading out — unsure that they will ever come home.

Among those leaving are the country's so-called "best & brightest", which could hollow out the country of its citizens that are most capable of helping to turn things around, thereby further contributing to a vicious downward cycle.

And there are risks, too, that Ireland’s best and brightest — the very people who could help turn things around — are leaving.

Edwina Shanahan, the marketing manager of Visafirst, a company that helps emigrants settle abroad, said there might be some truth to this. “A lot of the countries giving visas are quite choosy,” she said. “You need to be highly qualified and have recent job experience to get into Australia. They are getting the best among us.”


History is apparently rhyming in Ireland, as this jobs "famine" and subsequent human exodus is eerily reminiscent of other time periods of hardship there:

Ireland experienced its sharpest population drop during the 19th-century potato famine when the population dropped sharply from 6.5 million. More than a million people emigrated, and another million died. But there have been other waves of emigration during economic downturns in the 1930s, the 1950s and the 1980s.

Read the whole article here:


The Hunt for Jobs Sends the Irish Abroad, Again


So who's next in the "Save the Banker Bonuses & Elites at all Costs to Humanity" Global Welfare Program, otherwise known as the "Collective Sheeple Austeritization Congo Line?" Portugal? Spain? Italy? And when is it our turn to "suck it up" (hat tip: Charlie Munger, 'ole Uncle Warren's partner) here in the United States?

In the meantime, this bailout announcement is likely good for another 2% pop in the markets this week, as bankers everywhere celebrate by buying stocks and commodities. We should just have one of these sovereign bailout announcements along with a major IPO every week. The DOW will be at 36K in no time, thus fulfilling that markets and economics sage Kevin Hassert's ill-fated prediction (until now) from back in the late 1990's.

37 comments:

  1. Re, Jobs and exodus, they are coming to Canada too. Especially, Western Canada - Alberta, the oil patch area.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Wolfstreet:
    From the weekend thread:

    I, yes, I am an expert.

    EX: has-been

    Spurt: Big drip.

    EX-Spurt: Well, I guess you can add.....

    ReplyDelete
  3. this thing
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MU&ql=1

    an MU "Buy-Write" that faded the Nov 8c

    MU ~7 3/4
    Nov 8c ~.40

    ended 'dead flat', after 'trans.& fees'
    ~~
    re: Post
    so much for the 'Celtic Tiger' ..

    it, really, was bad news when the Irish punted the Punt..

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  4. It's all one trade. U$D and the rest of the world assets - from businessinsider.com

    "Once againg, gold and silver are absurdly correlated with the rest of the 'risk on' assets".

    "Gold and silver bulls freak out the suggestion that two One True Curriences behave just like other 'risk on' assets. Observe the overnight behaviour of S&P, silver, gold, the euro".

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  5. Morning all! Great post Manny, Businessweek has a great cover story on Ireland this week as well.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Rock,

    Do you short banks? Look at RF.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  7. The whole shebang still about currencies is right. Hhhhhmmmm, you know one of other "PIGS" is next so this will likely push the Euro down, while the dollar rises, no?

    ReplyDelete
  8. This should do wonders for housing prices in '11 and beyond. As Borat would opine, "not".

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/corelogic-shadow-housing-inventory.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. So much for my call that the bailout announcement would be good for another bounce

    ReplyDelete
  10. Nope, but looks like you were right this correction ain't over just yet.

    ReplyDelete
  11. The New Yorker magazine, a little late to THIS party, chimes in. Interesting that this MSM now catching up a bit here. This shit is NOT going away for bankers any time soon. The veil has been pullled back for all to see.

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/11/29/101129fa_fact_cassidy

    ReplyDelete
  12. "Ireland and China: Here we go again". Opinion and analysis by Andrew Pyle.

    http://ca.finance.yahoo.com

    The EU bailing a nation and China trying to control inflation does not look good for risk assets -

    But North American markets look ok unless interest rates start to go up.

    I Can

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  13. Good call by Cobra - for short term down,

    Cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com

    And Dan

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  14. @MEH,

    Did you short cotton?

    ReplyDelete
  15. "QE BOMB GROUND ZERO". Macro-man blog

    Hong Kong. Comments are a good read too.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  16. @ICan

    RE: Shorting Banks

    I neither short nor long the financial sector. Because of the structural support, I'm afraid the charts of the banks are typically meaningless technically, and only reflect the market's opinion or feeling, not actually where the bank stands, whether it's going to fail, etc.

    But it looks to me like last week there was a big short sell, so that may have been the time to get in short.

    If you decide to do it, start small, please. Watch the 60 minute chart, and if I were you, I'd get out at 5.41. I think You'll see big volume being squeezed at that point.

    ReplyDelete
  17. @ICan:

    Here is the unofficial list of banks in trouble. RF is not among them:

    http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/11/unofficial-problem-bank-list-nov-19.html

    Just FYI.

    ReplyDelete
  18. @Rock,

    RF, I owned it once and read about it's problems. It's not going up fast any time soon.

    Banks everywhere are back stopped by printing machines

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  19. re: Cotton Shorting..

    no, was selling Longs when asking ~"Who likes 120, before 160" ..

    not Short..

    AAIP

    ReplyDelete
  20. Mannwich - Great post, I think I will move to Mexico, before everyone else does.

    Como esta friolles - That is "How you bean"

    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  21. At least it's warm there, right Mutt? Our weather here lately has been downright depressing. Hello, sun? Where are you?

    ReplyDelete
  22. @james,

    Or move to HK or Ho Chi Minh city.

    Look at the property prices and rentals through those two links provided at Macro-man blog today.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mannwich - katy heard, "Bar the door" and she thought they were telling her to go the bar and have afew.

    She will be back to actually bar the door later.

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  24. Confusion.

    CAD/USD,JPY,HKD,AUD red

    CAD/EUR, GBP green.

    European money buying the loonie today. So not really a 'risk off' day today.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  25. Anonymous said...
    Rock,
    Do you short banks? Look at RF.
    I Can


    RE: RF

    again

    and again

    maybe let them run up some... then buy puts :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. RE: RF

    May buy long calls Jan 15 XLF into next week... might be good for 25+%

    ReplyDelete
  27. FBI raids two hedge funds - marketwatch.com

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  28. "Flaherty talks tough to Canadians". www.financialpost.com

    Don't expect more stimulus from the govt. Worried about what's happening in Europe. Balanced budget to return in 2016.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  29. Ireland plunged into political turmoil -ft.com

    Ireland = Iceland?

    From the same link:"Pessimistic Fed to slash growth forcast".

    ReplyDelete
  30. One down days, Nat. gas goes up. Couldn't be winter coming?

    HNU.TO

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  31. @Jeff(3:03)

    Let's ask BAC trading desk. They're the ones who had perfect trading record!

    Otherwise who knows? Range bound market.

    I Can

    ReplyDelete
  32. Sideways until year-end? I still think we have at least one more pump to new y-e highs and then all bets are off in '11.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Gotta pretty up those mutual fund y-e statements and get those bonuses.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Manny - sheesh - that was a pretty impressive turn-around. Someone must have got wind of HP's numbers.

    Anon - Re: Ireland. Interesting idea. Wouldn't be surprised. There are a lot of similarities. First and foremost, that it was the banks that brought these countries down. Different story than Greece.

    Still can't get over the size and scale of this bailout in relation to the Irish economy and population. They're saddling the next 4 generations with crushing debt :-/

    ReplyDelete
  35. "SLV holds uptrend, GLD does not". www.bespokeinvest.com

    But, gold bounced off 50 dma(1338.64) and closed above 20 day ema(1361.02).

    I Can

    ReplyDelete