So much for the "low/no corporate taxes or regulations" (and "free markets") meme as the cure-all in that magical imaginary paradise where everyone, including the global elites and their handmaidens, are honest and altruistic, and things are certainly nothing gamed or fraudulent for the benefit of a few. Ireland is merely the latest domino to fall in the aftermath of the global credit bubble, and it's citizens now must be "austeritized" to save large European banks and large banker bonuses. And silly me, I didn't realize that Ireland also had the CRA and Fannie/Freddie as the main cause in distorting the housing market over there as well. Oh, they didn't have those two things? Nevermind. But I digress.
Now that an IMF/EU bailout of Ireland appears imiment, another crisis is heating up in Ireland, namely the mass exodus of people fleeing the country in search of jobs. This article in the NY Times about thousands of people fleeing Ireland in search of jobs caught my eye over the weekend.
Here are a couple of key excerpts from the article:
Experts say about 65,000 people left Ireland last year, and some estimate that the number may be more like 120,000 this year. At first, most of those leaving were immigrants returning home to Central Europe. But increasingly, the experts say, it is the Irish themselves who are heading out — unsure that they will ever come home.
Among those leaving are the country's so-called "best & brightest", which could hollow out the country of its citizens that are most capable of helping to turn things around, thereby further contributing to a vicious downward cycle.
And there are risks, too, that Ireland’s best and brightest — the very people who could help turn things around — are leaving.
Edwina Shanahan, the marketing manager of Visafirst, a company that helps emigrants settle abroad, said there might be some truth to this. “A lot of the countries giving visas are quite choosy,” she said. “You need to be highly qualified and have recent job experience to get into Australia. They are getting the best among us.”
History is apparently rhyming in Ireland, as this jobs "famine" and subsequent human exodus is eerily reminiscent of other time periods of hardship there:
Ireland experienced its sharpest population drop during the 19th-century potato famine when the population dropped sharply from 6.5 million. More than a million people emigrated, and another million died. But there have been other waves of emigration during economic downturns in the 1930s, the 1950s and the 1980s.
Read the whole article here:
The Hunt for Jobs Sends the Irish Abroad, Again
So who's next in the "Save the Banker Bonuses & Elites at all Costs to Humanity" Global Welfare Program, otherwise known as the "Collective Sheeple Austeritization Congo Line?" Portugal? Spain? Italy? And when is it our turn to "suck it up" (hat tip: Charlie Munger, 'ole Uncle Warren's partner) here in the United States?
In the meantime, this bailout announcement is likely good for another 2% pop in the markets this week, as bankers everywhere celebrate by buying stocks and commodities. We should just have one of these sovereign bailout announcements along with a major IPO every week. The DOW will be at 36K in no time, thus fulfilling that markets and economics sage Kevin Hassert's ill-fated prediction (until now) from back in the late 1990's.
Re, Jobs and exodus, they are coming to Canada too. Especially, Western Canada - Alberta, the oil patch area.
ReplyDeleteI Can
@Wolfstreet:
ReplyDeleteFrom the weekend thread:
I, yes, I am an expert.
EX: has-been
Spurt: Big drip.
EX-Spurt: Well, I guess you can add.....
this thing
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MU&ql=1
an MU "Buy-Write" that faded the Nov 8c
MU ~7 3/4
Nov 8c ~.40
ended 'dead flat', after 'trans.& fees'
~~
re: Post
so much for the 'Celtic Tiger' ..
it, really, was bad news when the Irish punted the Punt..
AAIP
It's all one trade. U$D and the rest of the world assets - from businessinsider.com
ReplyDelete"Once againg, gold and silver are absurdly correlated with the rest of the 'risk on' assets".
"Gold and silver bulls freak out the suggestion that two One True Curriences behave just like other 'risk on' assets. Observe the overnight behaviour of S&P, silver, gold, the euro".
I Can
Morning all! Great post Manny, Businessweek has a great cover story on Ireland this week as well.
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteDo you short banks? Look at RF.
I Can
The whole shebang still about currencies is right. Hhhhhmmmm, you know one of other "PIGS" is next so this will likely push the Euro down, while the dollar rises, no?
ReplyDeleteThis should do wonders for housing prices in '11 and beyond. As Borat would opine, "not".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/corelogic-shadow-housing-inventory.html
So much for my call that the bailout announcement would be good for another bounce
ReplyDeleteNope, but looks like you were right this correction ain't over just yet.
ReplyDeleteThe New Yorker magazine, a little late to THIS party, chimes in. Interesting that this MSM now catching up a bit here. This shit is NOT going away for bankers any time soon. The veil has been pullled back for all to see.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/11/29/101129fa_fact_cassidy
"Ireland and China: Here we go again". Opinion and analysis by Andrew Pyle.
ReplyDeletehttp://ca.finance.yahoo.com
The EU bailing a nation and China trying to control inflation does not look good for risk assets -
But North American markets look ok unless interest rates start to go up.
I Can
Good call by Cobra - for short term down,
ReplyDeleteCobrasmarketview.blogspot.com
And Dan
I Can
@MEH,
ReplyDeleteDid you short cotton?
"QE BOMB GROUND ZERO". Macro-man blog
ReplyDeleteHong Kong. Comments are a good read too.
I Can
@ICan
ReplyDeleteRE: Shorting Banks
I neither short nor long the financial sector. Because of the structural support, I'm afraid the charts of the banks are typically meaningless technically, and only reflect the market's opinion or feeling, not actually where the bank stands, whether it's going to fail, etc.
But it looks to me like last week there was a big short sell, so that may have been the time to get in short.
If you decide to do it, start small, please. Watch the 60 minute chart, and if I were you, I'd get out at 5.41. I think You'll see big volume being squeezed at that point.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteHere is the unofficial list of banks in trouble. RF is not among them:
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/11/unofficial-problem-bank-list-nov-19.html
Just FYI.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteRF, I owned it once and read about it's problems. It's not going up fast any time soon.
Banks everywhere are back stopped by printing machines
I Can
re: Cotton Shorting..
ReplyDeleteno, was selling Longs when asking ~"Who likes 120, before 160" ..
not Short..
AAIP
Mannwich - Great post, I think I will move to Mexico, before everyone else does.
ReplyDeleteComo esta friolles - That is "How you bean"
Mangy Mutt
Katy. Where are you?
ReplyDeleteAt least it's warm there, right Mutt? Our weather here lately has been downright depressing. Hello, sun? Where are you?
ReplyDelete@james,
ReplyDeleteOr move to HK or Ho Chi Minh city.
Look at the property prices and rentals through those two links provided at Macro-man blog today.
I Can
Mannwich - katy heard, "Bar the door" and she thought they were telling her to go the bar and have afew.
ReplyDeleteShe will be back to actually bar the door later.
Mutt
Confusion.
ReplyDeleteCAD/USD,JPY,HKD,AUD red
CAD/EUR, GBP green.
European money buying the loonie today. So not really a 'risk off' day today.
I Can
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteRock,
Do you short banks? Look at RF.
I Can
RE: RF
again
and again
maybe let them run up some... then buy puts :)
RE: RF
ReplyDeleteMay buy long calls Jan 15 XLF into next week... might be good for 25+%
FBI raids two hedge funds - marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteI Can
"Flaherty talks tough to Canadians". www.financialpost.com
ReplyDeleteDon't expect more stimulus from the govt. Worried about what's happening in Europe. Balanced budget to return in 2016.
I Can
Ireland plunged into political turmoil -ft.com
ReplyDeleteIreland = Iceland?
From the same link:"Pessimistic Fed to slash growth forcast".
One down days, Nat. gas goes up. Couldn't be winter coming?
ReplyDeleteHNU.TO
I Can
Correction ovah?
ReplyDelete@Jeff(3:03)
ReplyDeleteLet's ask BAC trading desk. They're the ones who had perfect trading record!
Otherwise who knows? Range bound market.
I Can
Sideways until year-end? I still think we have at least one more pump to new y-e highs and then all bets are off in '11.
ReplyDeleteGotta pretty up those mutual fund y-e statements and get those bonuses.
ReplyDeleteManny - sheesh - that was a pretty impressive turn-around. Someone must have got wind of HP's numbers.
ReplyDeleteAnon - Re: Ireland. Interesting idea. Wouldn't be surprised. There are a lot of similarities. First and foremost, that it was the banks that brought these countries down. Different story than Greece.
Still can't get over the size and scale of this bailout in relation to the Irish economy and population. They're saddling the next 4 generations with crushing debt :-/
"SLV holds uptrend, GLD does not". www.bespokeinvest.com
ReplyDeleteBut, gold bounced off 50 dma(1338.64) and closed above 20 day ema(1361.02).
I Can