China ratings agency downgrades U.S. after Fed move
(Reuters) - A Chinese credit ratings agency downgraded the United States' sovereign credit rating on Tuesday, citing the Federal Reserve's controversial move last week to pump more dollars into the U.S. economy.
As Beijing and Washington locked horns on economic policy ahead of a Group of 20 leaders summit this week, the Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd cut the U.S. local and foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating to A-plus from AA.
The ratings agency, which warned it might cut the U.S. ratings further, said its move reflected the United States' "deteriorating debt repayment capability and drastic decline of the government's intention of debt repayment."
China and Germany slam U.S. policy before G20 summit
Fed Global Backlash Grows
@Dss:
ReplyDeleteYeah, but consider the source.
I wonder who's got the most mud on their side. And the largest catapults.
@Mannwich
at 114%, I was about to fly home so you could take me to dinner!!!
@Dastro
I am still bull-ish as several of my longs haven't been stopped out yet; in fact they are still longing to the upside (like ICan's WOW on MOTR). But I too believe there will be a pullback, or perhaps correction. I think it will be sharp and narrow, and will get the bears to sign-on so they can lose their money on the snap-around and the bulls will pull out so they will lose their money on the drop-then-reversal.
There are structural things pointing to a pullback: Dss' post above, sovereign debt for Ireland and Portugal(and IIGS), Bucky down under QE2. There are fundamental things pointing to a pullback: Deficits getting bigger, inflation in UK, China putting on the brakes on cash flow in, and of course the poor emerging market countries that didn't peg the dollar. There are Technical things pointing to a pullback: The % of companies dipping below the 50 day moving average on the rise, the relative strength charts for the leaders are flattening.
I'm trying to think but I can't think of any psychological factors for a pullback. Everybody I know is so positive for the economy and market...... :-)>
But I'm thinking the pullback will only whack the pee-pees of the insecure bulls, and the overzealous bears.
I can't wait for the next couple of weeks; I'm very excited! For a rock, that is.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteThis thing can go either way, up, down or even sideways. We pulled back a bit but it doesn't feel like a major or even minor correction is imminent. (famous last words) My small short was stopped out so we'll see what happens today.
I agree that China is saber rattling prior to the G20 meeting, but it is a change in the character of their prior stance.
Now this is interesting:
ReplyDeleteModern art was CIA 'weapon'
Revealed: how the spy agency used unwitting artists such as Pollock and de Kooning in a cultural Cold War
For decades in art circles it was either a rumour or a joke, but now it is confirmed as a fact. The Central Intelligence Agency used American modern art - including the works of such artists as Jackson Pollock, Robert Motherwell, Willem de Kooning and Mark Rothko - as a weapon in the Cold War. In the manner of a Renaissance prince - except that it acted secretly - the CIA fostered and promoted American Abstract Expressionist painting around the world for more than 20 years.
The connection is improbable. This was a period, in the 1950s and 1960s, when the great majority of Americans disliked or even despised modern art - President Truman summed up the popular view when he said: "If that's art, then I'm a Hottentot." As for the artists themselves, many were ex- com- munists barely acceptable in the America of the McCarthyite era, and certainly not the sort of people normally likely to receive US government backing.
(waits for the PBoC to dump Treasuries)
ReplyDelete(crickets)
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteAnd we can boycott Chinese made stuff, except everything is made in China these days.
OOH, did you see Polo? Wow! did we call that? Go SKS, TIF, COH, JWN and all those other upscale names!!!
ReplyDeleteWho was it, Mutt? Did you get your blue bag?
There's lots of free coffee out there!
@Emmanuel117
ReplyDeleteI'm still giggling. Good one.
Exactly emmy and rock. That's just a lot of noise. CR last night had a post calling "Onion-worthy".
ReplyDeleteBarry was on Bloomies. Same story. Looking for Citibank, Verizon, some technology. Said they were 30% cash.
ReplyDeleteHis call for C was $5. I think that's a good, although low, call.
Well, Ican, I'm out of MOTR. Stopped out today, with only a small loss, because after adding, and the gain, the pop out today was pretty much covered. Typical lesson: don't chase. Wait for your setup and pounce.
ReplyDeleteInteresting developments the past few days.
ReplyDeleteSPY, EMA(13) day - Trader Mark - fundmymutualfund
ReplyDeleteAlgos trading
I Can
Rememberance Day today.
ReplyDeleteThanks to all who scarificed their lives for our freedoms and their families. For courage and valour.
Special mention to Emmanuel and his family and Ahab
I Can
Indeed I Can. Isn't Vet's Day tomorrow?
ReplyDelete@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteYes, You'r right.
I Can
Bloomberg here just had Charlie Rose segment (they think it's 11:30; Hah!
ReplyDeleteHe had Thomas Friedman, NY Times on the show. Here's the quote:
"There's always somebody who didn't get the word. They try to think of ways to help other people, create something, and make it work. They don't know they're supposed to fail, be depressed, and watch Fox network".
"The US is like a moon rocket: There's incredible engines with huge thrust, and the pilots are arguing over the flight plan".
I'm going to find his stuff and put him on my reading list.
Morning all! Three days in a row! Am I seeing this correctly? I'd forgotten what a correction looks like.
ReplyDeleteCrude stocks havn't followed the commodity bubble. My Suncor is still range bound. No convinction? OIl is green after inventories.
ReplyDeleteI Can
ICan - have you seen how supply and demand have been holding up lately? I haven't followed oil in awhile and wonder how much of the latest rise has to do with inflation vs increased demand from China and India
ReplyDeleteIt's time for me to work again.
ReplyDeleteXME: Choppy. no clear direction. It's been positive over the S&P, but it's not clearly a winner or a loser. Everybody says commodities are the winner in these times, but I can't prove that with XME performance relative to the S&P. I think it's not a top herd.
SLX: also choppy. and a little lower performance than XME.
Conclusion: metals are not where you want to be, right now. There are of course winners and losers, but based on XME and SLX, there's no clear differentiation over the S&P.
KOL: A winner. it's bee outperforming the s&P since Sept 3. It started to come back during its consolidation form oct 15-Nov 3, but it's still pisitive over the S&P, and the trend is started up again. Look to the coals as a good herd. I think I mentioned JRCC seems managed from around 15.5 to 20, so it might be a good one for $1.50.
RTH: it's pulled back from around sept 30 to now, and althought it's negative, it looks like it's about to trend up.
$DJTRET about the same as RTH. The trend has clearly started up.
XRT: sliding downwrds since Sept 27. The trend went from .07 down to 0 (where 0 means it's exactly tracking the S&P, positive means it's better than the S&P) This seems contrary, so the retail sector needs more investigation before I could delcare it a good herd.
(Rock's guess is that the upscale names will outperform, the MOTR names will underperform, and the DLTR like cheapies will outperform)
UCC: positive over s&P by .05. Really good. Very stable since Sept 09 or so. This looks like a good herd
$DJTENG clearly rising. I was around 0 on Oct 29, and is currently 0.02. Clearly a good herd.
IYE: same; clearly rising. was around 0 at OCT 26 and now is .03. a good herd.
OIH: A stable, good herd. Was around 0 on Sept 3, and has been positive (choppy, though) around .04 since then.
$oix.x It did a pullback from Oct 18 until Oct 29, but has stabilized and is slightly above the S&P. There is no clear trend, the downtrend ended around Oct 29.
XOP: Tracked the s&P from about Aug 2 until sept 30. Then a slight trend up until now, and just lately since NOV 07, we've seen a big jump, around .04 over the S&P. This herd needs further study. There could be some real winners here.
XES: It's been outperforming the S&P since Aug 31. This looks like a winning herd. It's been pretty stable, and is now increasing to .05 over the S&P.
TAN: don't go there. It's been underperforming the S&P since Oct 18. Look for shorts here. Bad herd.
$DJTBAS: Good herd. Been outperforming the S&P since , um, since, well forever. It's on an upswing now, and is at 0.05.
ReplyDeleteIt's time for me to work again.
XME: Choppy. no clear direction. It's been positive over the S&P, but it's not clearly a winner or a loser. Everybody says commodities are the winner in these times, but I can't prove that with XME performance relative to the S&P. I think it's not a top herd.
SLX: also choppy. and a little lower performance than XME.
Conclusion: metals are not where you want to be, right now. There are of course winners and losers, but based on XME and SLX, there's no clear differentiation over the S&P.
KOL: A winner. it's been outperforming the s&P since Sept 3. It started to come back during its consolidation form oct 15-Nov 3, but it's still positive over the S&P, and the trend is started up again. Look to the coals as a good herd. I think I mentioned JRCC seems managed from around 15.5 to 20, so it might be a good one for $1.50.
RTH: it's pulled back from around sept 30 to now, and althought it's negative, it looks like it's about to trend up.
$DJTRET about the same as RTH. The trend has clearly started up.
XRT: sliding downwrds since Sept 27. The trend went from .07 down to 0 (where 0 means it's exactly tracking the S&P, positive means it's better than the S&P) This seems contrary, so the retail sector needs more investigation before I could delcare it a good herd.
(Rock's guess is that the upscale names will outperform, the middle quality names will underperform, and the DLTR like cheapies will outperform)
UCC: positive over s&P by .05. Really good. Very stable since Sept 09 or so. This looks like a good herd
$DJTENG clearly rising. I was around 0 on Oct 29, and is currently 0.02. Clearly a good herd.
IYE: same; clearly rising. was around 0 at OCT 26 and now is .03. a good herd.
OIH: A stable, good herd. Was around 0 on Sept 3, and has been positive (choppy, though) around .04 since then.
$oix.x It did a pullback from Oct 18 until Oct 29, but has stabilized and is slightly above the S&P. There is no clear trend, the downtrend ended around Oct 29.
XOP: Tracked the s&P from about Aug 2 until sept 30. Then a slight trend up until now, and just lately since NOV 07, we've seen a big jump, around .04 over the S&P. This herd needs further study. There could be some real winners here.
XES: It's been outperforming the S&P since Aug 31. This looks like a winning herd. It's been pretty stable, and is now increasing to .05 over the S&P.
TAN: don't go there. It's been underperforming the S&P since Oct 18. Look for shorts here. Bad herd.
$DJTBAS: Good herd. Been outperforming the S&P since , um, since, well forever. It's on an upswing now, and is at 0.05.
GDX: What can I say. Outperformed since Aug 05. It crawled back to 0 around O around Oct 18, but as been choppy upwards and is now around .01 better than the SPX.
IAU: Almost the same as GDX, sust slightly south. Not a good one.
I guess the golds are not the place to be now.
$DJTNCG: tracking S&P exactly.
XLP: Below S&P. Bad herd.
DBA: HAs been slightly outperforming the S&P since Oct 19. Currently at .03. It seems very unstable. Consider before you go here; there are better choices.
$HGX.X started to outperform around NOV 1. But the trend is down.
$DJTCNS: Very choppy since Sept 10. There was a trend up form oct 27 until Nov 9, but the trend is back down. It's too unstable for me. It could be agood herd, but I'm staying away.
ITB: Bad herd. Stay away.
conclusion on homies: Stay away.
XLU don't go here. Underperformed the X&P since around Sept 3. Bad herd.
ReplyDeleteIDU: Same.
Natural Gas: bad herd. XTXI, UNG, DVN. All below the S&P
Tellys IYZ, $djttel: below the S&P. Trending not good. Not a good herd.
Transports not so good. $DJT is trending down and below the S&P. Same for $djttr
$DJTCHE trending down, currently at .01 but was at .05 around oct 14th. Not a good herd
Need to take a break, more after I sleep.
Sleep well Rock!
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, my typos didn't get corrected...so much for cut-and paste.
ReplyDeleteMOTR means "Middle of the Road"
CME going after Cotton speculators after silver.
ReplyDeleteICE increases Cotton initial and Maintenance margins.
I Can
Rock (9:35) - I am making a cardboard sign as we speak and will take it to a Tiffany's later this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteIt will read - "Will shop here for free coffee" "God Bless"
The big question I have is, should I wear my combat boots and wife beater tee shirt or the old stinky tenny shoes and hooded sweat shirt.
Mangy Mutt
@Rock, re Coal, Trader Mark put up some charts Monday(?). It may be doing well because of that Coal India IPO was spectacular? Check it out.
ReplyDeleteCoal is long term story, yes, if the Green Crowd doesn't go after it. Short term I don't know.
I Can
NY Gold 1388.2 -21.9 -1.57
ReplyDeleteNY Silver 27.115 -1.791 -6.65
CRB Index
316.85
-2.26 -0.63%
US Dollar
78.115
+0.672 +0.86%
yon' Paperback Is catching a bid~!
AAIP
@Denise, "China and Germany Slam U.S. policy before G-20 meeting".
ReplyDeleteBoth protecting their turf! Both are net exporters and why they want competition from U.S.
I Can
@I Can: Which is why their comments should be taken with a BIG grain of salt. Someone should tell Ms. Sarah Palin and d-bag, philanderer Newt that the U.S. interests trump China's and Germany's interests.
ReplyDeleteManny - which is hilarious when you think about it - these are the same people who went on about "old Europe" and how we shouldn't be giving a shit what other countries think about us. Wasn't it P-tard who was going on about the big O apologizing to the rest of the world and how wrong it was?
ReplyDeleteI so hope these two run in 2012
@Thor: The utter incoherence (or dishonesty, I don't know which is worse) of it all is just astonishing.
ReplyDeleteInteresting happenings in London. A preview of what's to come in the U.S. when those who thought they were voting to "austeritize" OTHER people (you know, THOSE people) down the street realize the joke (and austerity) is on them?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/world/europe/11london.html
Manny - I've been wondering when we're going to see that in California. They're increasing the cost of a college education for the 4th time in two years this winter. I don't understand how it is acceptable that we live in a society that requires that a child become a debt slave for the rest of their lives just to get an education. An education, I might add, that may or may not give those who graduate, enough earning potential to ever pay that debt off.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about about other states, but in California, a college education was at one time free. Now it costs over 11K a year to go to a UC school.
Denise and Rock - you have college aged children don't you, what would your kids do if you weren't able to help them out with their education costs? Would they go to less expensive schools? Or get massive loans? Would any of them be able to pay those loans off?
ReplyDeleteI consider myself extremely lucky that I not only went to college when I did, but that my grandparents were kind enough to pay for my college education.
@Thor: I believe that this is all a by-product of our increasingly stratified society between the have-more's, have's and the bigger group, the have nots. Placing most of the wealth in the hands of a few contributes to driving up the costs of housing, education, health care, and other "essential" items needed to prosper.
ReplyDeleteShadow inflation?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/simon-black-growing-phenomenon-shadow-inflation-value-deflation
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI thought that the whole China downgrading our bonds thing pretty silly, but it is a change in character for them.
The politicians keep trying to push the same old turds around, trade issues, socialism, debt levels, etc., when it suits them and ignore them floating in the swimming pool when it doesn't.
Agreed, Denise. This strategy seems to be working fine for the global elites (for NOW), so I fully expect more of the same until something or thingS put it an end to it. The question, as always, is what thing, and when?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of turds, I wonder if TLT would be a good buy again sub-90 like it was the last time around or is it going even lower this time?
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteMy youngest would have had to stay in-state, but the best state school, U of I, Champaign Urbana, is very competitive. Believe it or not they have been increasing the number of out of state students so that Illinois kids have a much more difficult time being accepted. Unlike other state schools where residents get first priority, Illinois has tried to become a more elite school, with our tax dollars, but not our kids.
And don't get me started on the athletic scholarships and athletes with mediocre grades and scores that get into many schools. These kids work so hard so that some meat head can take a spot that should be reserved for a better and more deserving student.
Thor - I have long held the belief that we are on the wrong pathway to education.
ReplyDeleteNot only are costs skyrocketing, more and more people (Young and old) are being persuaded to get a college education.
Many of those people should not be in college and (I believe) the teachers getting pressure to "pass" these people, which errods the value of the education.
Many good jobs are no longer avaible and as we get more papered people into the work who NEED to pay off their loans there will be a downward pressure on wages.
I have one who is getting ready to graduate, she has a good internship, but she has been telling me stories about classmates who are not one bit worried about what they are going to do - Because they will have a degree.
But to answer your question about going to school without parental fincial help - NO!
Unless they are on schollarship or special program, they can not afford to go to school without taking out loans. All students up to age 23 must declare their parents income, so even though they are adults on their own they are still bound by their parents income - Unless they can prove hardship.
Most students who take out loans need their parents as co-signers and even after that the amount of loans they recieve are not enuff, so the parents need to either pay the differenc or get loans themselves.
Of course there are special circumsances, but I think you will find the vast majority are in this type of situation.
Mangy Mutt
Denise - oh yes, and what does that say about our society? That we pay the people who have no other function in society other than to entertain us, such insane salaries!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeletePSU just announced increases in R&B to U$D 43xx.+/Semester..
it, really, wasn' t that long ago that Tuition+ R&B was less than U$D ~4300/Semester..
yes, this is the same 'School' that put in "Green" Countertops, in their new Dorms, at a cost of U$D 150/ sq. ft. ...
AAIP
Jeff,
ReplyDeletere: November 10, 2010 12:53 PM
get out your mirror, it's the 'new', improved "y"-'Economy'(Pachinko Parlor)
AAIP
Looks like this "dip" being bought a little? So long "correction"? We barely knew ye. LOL.
ReplyDeleteMEH - Horrible isn't it? My first semester at San Jose State in 1992 (after three years of Junior College) was about $475. When I left SF State in 1995, tuition had risen to about $800 a semester.
ReplyDeleteThat same college education today costs $2,150 a semester - with more cost increases coming this winter and next spring. This doesn't include books, which when I went back to finish my degree four years ago were running over $500 a semester. It's egregious.
Mutt - oh yes, I saw quite a bit of grade inflation when I went back. I couldn't believe it. Professors who would go over everything that would be on the test or final the class before the test, throwing out your worst test score, not to mention grading on a curve. I feel so bad for all these kids in college today.
Here we go on the austerity. I hope everyone enjoys it, although I'm sure many didn't think they'd have to sacrifice anything when they voted.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/deficit-commission-draft-proposal.html
Thor - When I went to school, I took ALL kinds of math classes (2+2=4...stuff like that) one of my favorite classes was Linear Algebra, I could see the concepts and what was being done, but I could not get the ideas from my head to the paper.
ReplyDeleteI spent hours and hours in the study hall the teacher even spent a couple hours a week after class with us.
I ended up getting a C in that class, it was the lowest grade I had gotten, but I earned it and was proud of it.
There was no grade inflation from that teacher and that is the way it should be.
Mutt
But we mustn't ever, EVER, raise taxes in the uber-rich to help address the situation. No sirree bobby. They must never be forced to sacrifice. The luxury sector of our economy would go in the tank.
ReplyDeleteJeff,
ReplyDeleteyou should pull up Charts on Tiffany's, and Sotheby's .. to your point..
AAIP
pink sheet poppage...
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NASDAQ_PHOS
Phosphates~! who knew? :)
ibid.
Exactly my point, Hoffer.
ReplyDeleteMEH - Good point. I drive by the Rolls Royce / Bentley dealer in Beverly Hills every morning on my way to work. I spend a good deal of time stuck at the traffic light right across from their showroom on Santa Monica Blvd. I'm often struck at how often their inventory changes. These cars are not cheap, yet they don't seem to have any problems at all moving them.
ReplyDeleteTalk about a contrary indicator.
ReplyDeleteFinancials poised to gain
Commentary: Seven reasons to buy bank stocks now
ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) — While the broader market has cobbled together a nice run since Sept. 1, major financial stocks have largely been sitting out the rally.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seven-reasons-to-buy-bank-stocks-now-2010-11-10
Of course, he may very well be right. QE2 should be pretty good for the banks.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteWhat is going on is the educational winnowing out process where countries have too many qualified students so they now ration higher education to those who can either pay or those who are awarded scholarships, or be debt slaves the rest of their lives. (Student loans in the US are not discharged during bankruptcy)
Countries like the UK and the US obviously have too many college grads; we don't value them and don't care if they fall behind other nations. A race to the bottom.
Agreed, Denise. It's also the winnowing out of the middle class. Or hollowing out. All with dire long term implications that nobody has any answers to address (even if that was assuming they wanted to do something about it).
ReplyDeleteEveryone and their brother in the econoblogosphere talking about another top forming. How soon until we see the hundreds of "I CALLED THE TOP!!!" posts from bloggers if and when we do correct again.
ReplyDeleteIt is only dire to those who are actually in the middle class.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteI totally agree. Time stamped and everything, but they will only post the one that called the top not the 20 other ones that didn't.
The technicals are deteriorating but these things can go on for months while the market goes ever higher. I still see no fear and a great deal of complacency, which can also go on for a long time.
We've talked about this before as well; I wonder if, or how many boomers will immediately move their 401k's out of equities as soon as they get back to where they were before 2008.
ReplyDelete@Thor: If too many are calling THE top, I'm guessing it won't actually be THE top then.
ReplyDeleteI dunno, Thor. Memories are obviously short in this country and the ethos of greed seems to trump all, even common sense. I think some will hang on too long, AGAIN. I really do. I think part of the miscalculation of the bears is assuming that the masses will look at things to the level of detail that we do. Most don't. They simply don't or won't take the time to do it, and only care that they're assets are up nominally, but not why they're up. It's the same bubble mentality all over again. Deep down most people know it's bullshit but don't want to take money off too soon and hear their friends talk about how "rich" they're getting.
ReplyDeleteI also think the fear of a significant downward move is gone, with the perception being that the FED will always put a floor under all assets and prop shit up no matter what. Always. The Put to end all puts. When all is said and done, this could be the bubble coup de grace. It really could.
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteWhat I think is going to happen is this giant trading range, for years to come. Up and down, up and down. There is a lot of money to be made with that type of market. :-)
@Denise: Totally agree. Kind of like Japan.
ReplyDeleteDenise - Have been thinking the same thing! Good thing I found an awesome trading club ;-)
ReplyDeleteOf course, learning how to trade beyond "buy and hold" would be helpful. Time to get off my ass and start doing some much needed homework!
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI never thought about funding college. It just came as part of the deal with kids. You just did it.
I was luckier than some. Two of them had undergrad full scholarships, one because she was a division 1 track star, who graduated in 3.5 years and went to Harvard Med, another because she was smart and graduated Summa in 3 years and went to Cornell Vet. But then I had 2 in grad school at the same time, ouch.
Many years ago, I was assigned to sit on the WPI admissions committee as an industry consultant. Boy, you talk about a lot of work for no money, that one was a time eater. But back then, the college was really looking for people that would be successful in life and donate back to the school. Grades were important, but not everything. Today, because there are so many applicants, grades are simply a way of reducing the number of applicants.
Regarding costs: Harvard's endowments make enough money to run the school. They don't need tuition; they charge a lot because they can. Other schools have caught on. UofI, for example, has one of the best electrical engineering schools in the nation (or used to when I was following). So they can charge a lot. And do.
(looks at SLW price, points right)
ReplyDelete(looks at silver price, points left)
What the hell?
Whoa - has anyone seen this yet?
ReplyDeleteA draft proposal to be released Wednesday by the chairmen of President Obama’s bipartisan commission on reducing the federal debt calls for deep cuts in domestic and military spending starting in 2012, and an overhaul of the tax code to raise revenue.
...
The plan would reduce Social Security benefits to most future retirees ... and it would subject higher levels of income to payroll taxes to ensure Social Security’s solvency for at least the next 75 years.
But the plan would not count any savings from Social Security toward meeting the overall deficit-reduction goal set by Mr. Obama ...
The proposed simplification of the tax code would repeal or modify a number of popular tax breaks — including the deductibility of mortgage interest payments [and the exemption from taxes for employees’ health benefits] — so that income tax rates could be reduced across the board.
Anyone care to take a bet on how much, if any, of this ever goes through?
Continuing the herd review:
ReplyDeleteIYH trending down, under the S&P by .03. IXJ agreeing. XLC, same, all underperforming and have been since around Sept 07, which was the start of the current rally. I wouldn't recommend healthcare.
$DRG.x Pharma index, has been trending down since Sept 1 as well. It's really bad now, under the S&P by .05. IHE agrees, but it was at par with the S&P since Sept 10, but has trended down tsince Nov 1. So Pharmas are a bad herd.
IHI, on the other hand, looks pretty good. They outperformed the S&P during the entire Sept 1 rally, went to par, then lately have started trending up again. Looks like a good herd.
Biotech, IBB looks bad. Since September, it's been at par with the S&P, and since NOv 1 it has trended negative to -.04. BBH, about the same, right at par with the S&P and trending down a little now. XBI was a little higher during the September rally, but has trended down dramatically since Oct 27. Biotech is a bad herd.
The providers, IXJ, is not good. At par with the S&P through the September rally, but significantly below now. IYH agreeing almost exactly. Not a good herd.
KCE, financial services looks pretty good. They've been outperforming since around OCT 6, and the trend is up. $DJTFVS is agreeing, has been on a positive slope since around Sept 10, but has a slight downtrend since around Nov 4. It is still outperforming the S&P by .01. I'd rate financial services a good herd.
The Banksters, $BKX, has not been good. It has been below S&P performance since, um, forever. It's latest trend since Nov 1 is up, from around -.07 up to -.01. A fast slope, but it hasn't gotten positive for the length of my chart, since around Jul 2. Bad herd.
$DJTBAK, big banks, is agreeing, except they fell below S&P around Aug 11. I heard a report "7 reasons buying banks now is good" I haven't read, but their performanc doesn't show me anything. Bad herds here.
Regional banks, KBE and KRE are showing the same. Really at 0 or below 0, so their performance compared to S&P is poor.
The Eats, $DJTFOB, is not a good herd. Been at or below 0 to the S&P since Sept 10. Trending down, now. I think I saw insider trading sells at Chipotle, when that report got posted. Bad herd, here. Let them eat alone.
Techs: XLK has been outperforming since the Sept 1 rally started. It's currently choppy now, but still above S&P by .02. $DJULTC is in perfect agreement. This looks like a good herd.
Semis: SOX.X has been on a positive slope since Aug 18th, and is outperforming now by .05. This looks like a good herd. SMH is in agreement, outperforming since Sept 23, and on a positive slope since Sept 1. Semis are a good herd.
Software, IGY, has had its ups and downs. Currently it's outperforming by .02, but the trend is down. I think there are better choices. Bad herd.
Industrials, XLI, bad herd. Trend is down. Stay away.
Automobiles, $DJTATO, has been outperforming since the Sept 1 rally started. It's trend is up right now, and is above S&P by .04. Good herd.
Insurance: $DJTINN is at or below par with the S&P. KIE agrees. Bad herd.
OK, that's all I follow.
Good Herds:
KOL (Coals)
RTH (UCC) Retail (understand the probable caveat)
$DJTENG, OIH oils
XES Oil equipment (figures they would go together)
$DJTBAS basic resources
IHI Medical Devices
KCE Financial Services
XLK Big Techs
SOX.X and SMH semis
$DJTATO automobiles.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI think there's a mortgage loophole. I think if you move out, rent it for a tax year or two, put it in an LLP, then move back in, I think you get around the mortgage is not deductible issue.
My attorney said each house should be in its own LLP. But you should check with an attorney on this. He said that every case that's gone to a judge and lost has been reversed at appellate on rule of law. I guess there are a lot of LLPs being used as a tax dodge.
So I don't think I'd worry too much about the mortgage deduction.
HAH! Manny, did you see that Lou Dobbs is joining Fox Business News? How much you wanna bet he starts down the union's are the root of all evil meme right out the gate?
ReplyDeleteRock - naw, I don't personally worry about it too much. I put a large deposit down on my home so the mortgage interest deduction isn't all that large.
ReplyDeleteAt this stage in my life I'm hoping to take my grandparents advice, which was to never sell a house, just buy a new home and rent the old one out.
@Thor(4:17),
ReplyDeleteThey also say increase retirement age, and cut corp. taxes? Another words, fry John E. and pay the rich(shareholder).
I Can
POMO schedule, if anyone cares-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ny.frb.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Starting this Friday, Nov. 12, Monday 15,16,17,18,19,22,23,29,30, Dec. 01,02,03,06,07,08,09 and next schedule releaase on Friday Dec.10 at 2PM.
Can the market go down on these days?
I Can
U.S. Stock Futures Drop After Cisco's Forecast Misses Estimates
ReplyDeleteU.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may erase today’s gain, after Cisco Systems Inc. projected less profit than analysts estimated.
Cisco, the sixth-largest U.S. technology company by market value, slumped 13 percent. S&P 500 futures expiring in December declined 0.6 percent to 1,206.40 at 5:53 p.m. in New York. Contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Index, which gets 65 percent of its value from computer-related companies, lost 1 percent to 2,153.50.
Interesting, Denise. I continue to smell a correction in the air.
ReplyDeleteNothing like turning a nice gain into a 15% loss. Had to cover my short today as it broke out and was up 15%+ today. So since Monday mid-day that puppy is up over 35% on nothing. Crazy moves in that thing back and forth on nothing. Good traders having a hey day batting it around and up and down. My damn cover didn't fill and I got smoked. Sucks.
ReplyDeleteManny :-/ That blows
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteI didn't hold on to my short which would have been a nice winner, instead I took a small loss. As Scarlett would say, "tomorrow is another day...".
But in the end I review all of my trades to see if there was something I could have done better and try to keep improving. This is the best way to see if you are repeating the same mistakes over and over. (as every trader/investor is prone to do, discipline is the name of the game)
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteDid you have the great weather we have had the past three days?
Thanks Denise. What I could have done better is not get greedy with my cover price. ;-)
ReplyDeleteYes, we had unbelievable weather the past few days. Was nearly 70 outside. Amazing. I think it ends today though.
Government Workers Seem to be Doing Well
ReplyDelete@anon,
ReplyDeleteNot a meaningful article as it only addresses those who make more than $150k.
What % of federal workers make $150k?
I am sure that Lou Mish will have something to say about this terrible offense of paying people what they are worth rather than what the corporate world pays them.
http://search.yippy.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&v%3Aproject=clusty&query=Marvell+Avanta+System-on-a-Chip
ReplyDeletehttp://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?ticker=MRVL:US
should be a 'killer app'..
AAIP
Barack Obama: We Must Embrace Globalism And The Emerging One World Economy
ReplyDeleteThe Economic Collapse
Nov 10, 2010
Although it received very little coverage in the mainstream media, Barack Obama made some comments about globalism during his speech in Mumbai, India that were very eye-opening. As he was discussing the new realities of world trade in 2010, Obama warned against “those who see globalization as a threat” and he spoke of the “integrated world” in which we all now live. But is merging the entire globe into a one world economy, a one world financial system and a one world labor market really the best thing for the American people?
For the past two decades, all U.S. presidents have been heralding the benefits of merging the American economy with the rest of the globe. George Bush Sr., Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have all steadfastly supported the emerging one world economy. These presidents have each used different terms to describe this process such as “globalism”, “globalization”, “an integrated world”, “the global economy” and even “a New World Order”, but they have all meant the same thing. All of these presidents have sought to integrate the United States even more deeply into the developing one world economic system.
Barack Obama showed very clearly how he feels about globalism when he made the following statement during his speech in Mumbai….
“This will keep America on its toes. America is going to have to compete. There is going to be a tug-of-war within the US between those who see globalization as a threat and those who accept we live in a open integrated world, which has challenges and opportunities.”
This is something that Barack Obama has obviously thought quite a bit about. In fact, during the same speech he warned that those supporting globalization will need to “guard against” those who would seek to put up barriers to the full integration of the economies of the world…....
http://www.bushstole04.com/monetarysystem/obama_globalization.htm
ibid.
@anon 7:23
ReplyDelete"I am sure that Lou Mish will have something to say about this terrible offense of paying people what they are worth rather than what the corporate world pays them."
Yes. The government definitely does a better job in knowing what people are worth.
"China Jails Father of Tainted Milk Victim". http://www.ft.com/home/us
ReplyDeleteJailed for 2-1/2 years for disturbing social order.
Activist organised support groups for parents.
Corrupt, Paranoid state.
I Can
Funny video, U.S. - China currency war-of-words.
ReplyDelete"Complex China,U.S. Currency Issue Expalined in Bizarre News Animation".
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/complex-china-us-currency-issue-explained-in-bizarre-news-animation/article1793666/
I Can
@AAIP
ReplyDelete"System-on-a-chip"?
"Marvell Technology Group Ltd. announced that it will demonstrate its quad-core processing, enterprise-class cloud computing platform, Marvell ARMADA XP (Extreme Performance). The company said its new platform is based on Marvell-designed ARM v7 MP compatible CPU offering 1.6GHz processing per core performance, delivering 16,600DMIPS. It integrates 2MB of L2 cache and supports 64-bit DDR3 memory interface with ECC at 800MHz clock rate to enable a high throughput memory sub-system design. The platform is an integrated System-on-a-Chip (SoC) that combines quad x4 PCI-express (PCI-e) interfaces, multiple USB ports, Gigabit Ethernet ports, SATA ports, security engine and other I/O peripherals. In addition, its advanced power management architecture allows the platform to offer high performance per watt to alleviate the challenges of energy and cooling costs faced by enterprise and server class systems. The ARMADA XP is currently sampling to customers. No pricing details were disclosed."
emmy,
ReplyDeleteArmada is different than Avanta..
tho, Armada could be a scorcher, as well..
AAIP
Maybe You Can't Buy Elections Afterall?
ReplyDeleteWhy would any corporation be stupid enough to try to buy an election in this day and age when it's common sense that all politicians, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, are already bought and paid for?
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteThere are a few who are not, but a very few.
Fascinating
ReplyDeleteChina marking up prices
Consumer inflation prints well above forecasts
Is this the beginning of serious inflation? Or are we witnessing a currency war in progress? Or both? Either way, I can't see this ending well.
@Dss:
ReplyDeleteJust curious, who's not?
Bernie Sanders.
ReplyDelete