In addition to Thor's links, here's a couple of good reads, and my comments on them.
Since we're (probably) long, set appropriate stops.
I'm thinking Tuesday will be up, and as the action proceeds, look out for a turn-around Wednesday. The reason I'm saying that is because the strength indicators are really pushing positive, and it may take a day at least to turn.
I think if there is a turn south, it will be short-lived, at least positive again through Christmas and into early January.
Contrary to Mutt's opinion, I do not think it's too late to go long. I agree with the article above. I feel the pressure on the retail stocks (we mentioned the upscale ones, but do you feel the mood changing? How's the traffic in your area? Are the aisles in your costco and target clogged on weekends?) and I feel retail, though risky, is looking for further recovery. Bloomberg had a vignette on the upscale retail same-store sales, and they agree.
I think the Financial stocks might rally, as well. Remember the Fed is giving money to the primary Treasury buyers, and they are likely to invest that into more derivatives, in order to leverage it. Who sells derivatives? GS. MS. etc. etc.
And, we're 200 days in to the presidential term. Well, ol' Ben really helped Obama out with the additional money supply. Have a read at:
By itself, it's not enough to set strategy, but just another interesting correlation with all the other stuff going on to push Mr. Market "Up, Up and Away". (BTW, Bloomberg played that Friday)
Thor - I think it was you who mentioned "The WalkingDead" as being good.
It was on last night, so I watched it and it was very good, had I known it was going to be a series, I would have avoided it. Because now I am going to have to make time to watch it.
Something to pay atention to, it was published in January 2008.
Sometimes it's difficult to determine what kind of facts are inside the categry "it's not different this time" and what kind of things are just noise.Media noise.
Well, looks like this is the kind of information that keeps repeating itself over and over and over.So is valuable.
Regarding "green shoots" past year and "the light at the end of the tunnel" kind of chat the sp500 botomed in March 2009 five month later the recession was declared over.
I'm am highlighting the equity market behaviour here, not making an extensive interpretation of the health of the whole economy as a precondition to determine market direction.Just what makes me tick, stocks.
Regardless a future recession or not is importasnt to check this kind of data to guesstimate sp500 middle term performance.Because is solid information.
Yes, to me looks like is going up (and nov 17 +/- two days) means the moment where a decent correction has the chance to occur for a while, but is neither a sure thing nor a trend reversal in my view.
@ICan: I agree with your assessment on alternate energy. The way energy companies invest in it makes it too expensive over coal and oil, which is the cheapest. And I agree, for PR purposes, they need to be seen "doing something". But I believe this to be all "lip service" and has little to do with the reality of sending power to me. I believe there is no great trend up for the alternate energy sector for tens of years, until we actually do start running out of fossil fuels. I'm staying out of that sector, unless I see a good short opportunity like FSLR is now.
Thanks for your emerging market recommendations. I'd like to follow up with a little math: (I don't know how to get columns to line up so I'm using underbars)
Ticker_____OCT 6____NOV 6___%change_____trend SPY________116_____122.72_____5.7%_____ base EEM________46.10____48.49_____5.4%______down ADRE_______46.34____48.37_____4.4%______down INP________79.16____83.63_____5.6%______turning EWZ________79.68____81.16_____1.8%______down MOTR_______12.92____27.90_____116%______WOW!! ICIC_______Can't find it HDF________Can't find it
By trend, that means the trend of the stock as compared to the trend of the SPY. In other words, if the SPY is climbing faster than the ticker, the trend of the ticker is "down". That's my definition of "relative strength of the ticker as compared to the SPY".
Of this emerging market list, MOTR is going to be further evaluated but I think I'll start a position here. The trend is up. I should have said "up" instead of "Wow!!". But it's trading volume * price is a little low for me, because I know one fund can do a buy or sell short and move that stock 30%.
I'll watch INP for awhile because it's trend has been down, but may be turning up, it's too soon to tell. Which is why I said "turning" in the chart above.
But the others aren't showing me any reason to invest in emerging markets. And, with what I understand, the emerging market countries who do not peg their currency to Bucky are going to lose out as the Bucky falls in value the probable result of QE2.
BTW, my favorite short X is up 10.1%, and the trend is positive, relative to the SPY in the same time period. (needless to say, I got stopped out at around 41.33)
Here is another one I kept an eye on for long time.
Ivanhoe mines. It's a huge copper/gold mine in Mongolia - owners are a Canadian company and Rio Tinto.
The reason I never bought it was China. Everyone in the media kept on saying China is a bubble waiting to burst. People like Jim Chanos and Hugh Hendry.
Think that Jim Chanos was short Ford past December.(Probably he changed his position, who knows) Regardless how sound his analysis was he was wrong moneywise.Being wrong happens all the time (narcissism), reverse inmediatetly when wrong (timing)and read the tape above all is a way to have a chance in the markets. Without timing is just a bunch colourful opinions that are irrelevant in the quest to make a profit out of the market.
Dec 2009 Ford- $ 9 Past Friday $ 16. Even if it goes bankrupt tomorrow so to speak the stock went up almost 80% this year, so a lot of money was left on the table.
Of course almost everything crashes at one point and go to the moon at another, the challenge is to be in the right route to get a "ride". Dan
Nobody is correct 100% of the time. One has to do their own due diligence. Cannot even rely on your own investment manager. We, my parents and I had our investments with some mm. She always sold us crap. Our portfolios went zigzag from 2007- 2009.
It was easy from 2003 - until summer of 2007. Anyone long, made money. For an average investor like us, it's becoming harder.
Just like everything else in life, one has to be in control of their own finances!
Around the same time Dough Kass was saying AMD was going bankrupt.
He appeared to be closer (during the whole year it dropped 50% then recovered).
But the main point to being asked is why? If only a few can make money at the expense of the vast majority why they become sooo nice to me, taking the time and trouble (through a mass media outlet) to just let me know what he is betting on?
Isn't cute? I'm just giddy because he wants me to participate in what he states as his strategy to make a profit? Am I lucky or what?
Yes you got the picture.Asking for a used car salesman for advice if we want a car that he has in his lot sounds, well not that bright.
They jus make bets. Sometimes what they say sometimes something else waiting to see if it gets any traction and in the worst case (for us) we bacome the patsy. Dan
I think it's nice to get ideas from others. When he's a MM, you can write them down, and track them, and judge whether or not that guy knows what he's talking about.
For example Barry Ritholz and Peter Green post on Minyanville. On 9/23, they recommended AMT BWZ DXCM PCS RAX RVBD SBGI TDC WAB ROL and ROVI. Of these, PCS, RAX, RVBD, SBGI, ROC and ROVI have outperformed the S&P.
So that's about 50%, more or less. Of course, in his post, he did not identify the timeframe, but it looks like it's been long enough to get through one cycle of daily stochs.
I guess when the best hit 50%, well, what else can I say.
I really like posting here: I did research on bla bla and it looks bla....what do you think? That's so very helpful to me. We call it "bouncing ideas off of someone else". I find that very helpful, because others have perspective I don't have. Like Ican's and Dss' post on emerging markets.
In addition to Thor's links, here's a couple of good reads, and my comments on them.
ReplyDeleteSince we're (probably) long, set appropriate stops.
I'm thinking Tuesday will be up, and as the action proceeds, look out for a turn-around Wednesday. The reason I'm saying that is because the strength indicators are really pushing positive, and it may take a day at least to turn.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304316404575580630736596518.html
I think if there is a turn south, it will be short-lived, at least positive again through Christmas and into early January.
Contrary to Mutt's opinion, I do not think it's too late to go long. I agree with the article above. I feel the pressure on the retail stocks (we mentioned the upscale ones, but do you feel the mood changing? How's the traffic in your area? Are the aisles in your costco and target clogged on weekends?) and I feel retail, though risky, is looking for further recovery. Bloomberg had a vignette on the upscale retail same-store sales, and they agree.
I think the Financial stocks might rally, as well. Remember the Fed is giving money to the primary Treasury buyers, and they are likely to invest that into more derivatives, in order to leverage it. Who sells derivatives? GS. MS. etc. etc.
And, we're 200 days in to the presidential term. Well, ol' Ben really helped Obama out with the additional money supply. Have a read at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/business/10stra.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=A%20Presidential%20Reason%20To%20Buy%20Stocks&st=cse
By itself, it's not enough to set strategy, but just another interesting correlation with all the other stuff going on to push Mr. Market "Up, Up and Away". (BTW, Bloomberg played that Friday)
@Rock,
ReplyDeletePlease check comments section at the previous thread regarding your inquiry. I hope I was able to answer what you were looking for.
I Can
From New York Times blog -
ReplyDelete"How Obama Saved Capitalism and Lost the Midterms". http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02
For no matter your view of President Obama, he effectively saved capitalism. And for that he paid a terrible political price.
I Can
Hope u all are having a good weekend! Have a friend in town from SF for the weekend so am spotty here!
ReplyDeleteThor - I think it was you who mentioned "The WalkingDead" as being good.
ReplyDeleteIt was on last night, so I watched it and it was very good, had I known it was going to be a series, I would have avoided it. Because now I am going to have to make time to watch it.
Mutt
Something to pay atention to, it was published in January 2008.
ReplyDeleteSometimes it's difficult to determine what kind of facts are inside the categry "it's not different this time" and what kind of things are just noise.Media noise.
Well, looks like this is the kind of information that keeps repeating itself over and over and over.So is valuable.
Regarding "green shoots" past year and "the light at the end of the tunnel" kind of chat the sp500 botomed in March 2009 five month later the recession was declared over.
I'm am highlighting the equity market behaviour here, not making an extensive interpretation of the health of the whole economy as a precondition to determine market direction.Just what makes me tick, stocks.
Regardless a future recession or not is importasnt to check this kind of data to guesstimate sp500 middle term performance.Because is solid information.
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0801/document/dd010708.pdf
Dan
I meant... bottomed
ReplyDelete@Dan,
ReplyDeleteI am keeping your Nov.17 in mind. Thanks for sharing that. Rock, above saying bull, Denise 1300, and you're saying maybe correction.
Interesting.
I Can
Yes, to me looks like is going up (and nov 17 +/- two days) means the moment where a decent correction has the chance to occur for a while, but is neither a sure thing nor a trend reversal in my view.
ReplyDeleteI'm just waiting and see what happen.
Dan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI agree with your assessment on alternate energy. The way energy companies invest in it makes it too expensive over coal and oil, which is the cheapest. And I agree, for PR purposes, they need to be seen "doing something". But I believe this to be all "lip service" and has little to do with the reality of sending power to me. I believe there is no great trend up for the alternate energy sector for tens of years, until we actually do start running out of fossil fuels. I'm staying out of that sector, unless I see a good short opportunity like FSLR is now.
@Dss and ICan:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your emerging market recommendations. I'd like to follow up with a little math: (I don't know how to get columns to line up so I'm using underbars)
Ticker_____OCT 6____NOV 6___%change_____trend
SPY________116_____122.72_____5.7%_____ base
EEM________46.10____48.49_____5.4%______down
ADRE_______46.34____48.37_____4.4%______down
INP________79.16____83.63_____5.6%______turning
EWZ________79.68____81.16_____1.8%______down
MOTR_______12.92____27.90_____116%______WOW!!
ICIC_______Can't find it
HDF________Can't find it
By trend, that means the trend of the stock as compared to the trend of the SPY. In other words, if the SPY is climbing faster than the ticker, the trend of the ticker is "down". That's my definition of "relative strength of the ticker as compared to the SPY".
Of this emerging market list, MOTR is going to be further evaluated but I think I'll start a position here. The trend is up. I should have said "up" instead of "Wow!!". But it's trading volume * price is a little low for me, because I know one fund can do a buy or sell short and move that stock 30%.
I'll watch INP for awhile because it's trend has been down, but may be turning up, it's too soon to tell. Which is why I said "turning" in the chart above.
But the others aren't showing me any reason to invest in emerging markets. And, with what I understand, the emerging market countries who do not peg their currency to Bucky are going to lose out as the Bucky falls in value the probable result of QE2.
BTW, my favorite short X is up 10.1%, and the trend is positive, relative to the SPY in the same time period. (needless to say, I got stopped out at around 41.33)
@ Rock,
ReplyDeleteHere is another one I kept an eye on for long time.
Ivanhoe mines. It's a huge copper/gold mine in Mongolia - owners are a Canadian company and Rio Tinto.
The reason I never bought it was China. Everyone in the media kept on saying China is a bubble waiting to burst. People like Jim Chanos and Hugh Hendry.
Timing is everything. That's lesson for me
I Can
I-Can
ReplyDeleteThink that Jim Chanos was short Ford past December.(Probably he changed his position, who knows) Regardless how sound his analysis was he was wrong moneywise.Being wrong happens all the time (narcissism), reverse inmediatetly when wrong (timing)and read the tape above all is a way to have a chance in the markets.
Without timing is just a bunch colourful opinions that are irrelevant in the quest to make a profit out of the market.
Dec 2009 Ford- $ 9 Past Friday $ 16.
Even if it goes bankrupt tomorrow so to speak the stock went up almost 80% this year, so a lot of money was left on the table.
Of course almost everything crashes at one point and go to the moon at another, the challenge is to be in the right route to get a "ride".
Dan
@ Dan,
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Nobody is correct 100% of the time. One has to do their own due diligence. Cannot even rely on your own investment manager. We, my parents and I had our investments with some mm. She always sold us crap. Our portfolios went zigzag from 2007- 2009.
It was easy from 2003 - until summer of 2007. Anyone long, made money. For an average investor like us, it's becoming harder.
Just like everything else in life, one has to be in control of their own finances!
I Can
Around the same time Dough Kass was saying AMD was going bankrupt.
ReplyDeleteHe appeared to be closer (during the whole year it dropped 50% then recovered).
But the main point to being asked is why?
If only a few can make money at the expense of the vast majority why they become sooo nice to me, taking the time and trouble (through a mass media outlet) to just let me know what he is betting on?
Isn't cute? I'm just giddy because he wants me to participate in what he states as his strategy to make a profit? Am I lucky or what?
Yes you got the picture.Asking for a used car salesman for advice if we want a car that he has in his lot sounds, well not that bright.
They jus make bets. Sometimes what they say sometimes something else waiting to see if it gets any traction and in the worst case (for us) we bacome the patsy.
Dan
@ICan
ReplyDeleteThanks!
I'll go have a roti prata in your honor!
@Dastro
ReplyDeleteI think it's nice to get ideas from others. When he's a MM, you can write them down, and track them, and judge whether or not that guy knows what he's talking about.
For example Barry Ritholz and Peter Green post on Minyanville. On 9/23, they recommended AMT BWZ DXCM PCS RAX RVBD SBGI TDC WAB ROL and ROVI. Of these, PCS, RAX, RVBD, SBGI, ROC and ROVI have outperformed the S&P.
So that's about 50%, more or less. Of course, in his post, he did not identify the timeframe, but it looks like it's been long enough to get through one cycle of daily stochs.
I guess when the best hit 50%, well, what else can I say.
I really like posting here: I did research on bla bla and it looks bla....what do you think? That's so very helpful to me. We call it "bouncing ideas off of someone else". I find that very helpful, because others have perspective I don't have. Like Ican's and Dss' post on emerging markets.