What capitalism?

A couple weeks ago I mentioned that it was a chance to get a correction if we go down fast and without interruption. Started going down a Thursday like I mentioned, but failed to pick up speed.

Past week I switch to the bull side mentioning that past Thursday should start going up.

It really started Tuesday, getting consolidation Wednesday and effectively Thursday going up but what bothers me the most is not that started two days before, but the fact that it just stop flat. It didn't break the area. So no impulsiveness, neither to the downside nor the upside.

Bottom line is that we are trapped in this range for half a year, and looks hard to break this general zone.

I'm going to wait until July 30th as the first chance to brake out of this zone, that point in time has some chances of a breakout.

But I found August 9th an onwards for 3 or 4 more days, as the most clear point to produce a strong pivot and finally get out of the zone.

Which direction?

I want to study more carefully Aug 9-12 before picking a side, because is made of alignments that I'm very familiar with, who tend to produce nosedive action like in some stretches of the 1931-32 era. Where a 30% leg down was very common.

They are not exactly the same, they never are. Each time are different, but the players are still the same, just in different roles.

I found out that at another times in the past 140 years, even though not too often, it did produce the opposite result, breaking out of a long held range to the upside. Like a pivot point but only in cases where stocks were battered for a decent amount of time.

Can the past six months be defined as that kind of long range with battered stocks?

I'm not that sure, having a nice move up for a couple years being met with a correctionless correction in 2011.

Of course unlike 1931-32 there are elements that are missed to produce that kind of perfect storm, but different to the past 10 months, now is at least possible a big down move.

1931 saw the complete banking industry collapse, went to hell in a handbasket so to speak. Eerily similar, we now have the very same actors walking a very fine line where if just one among a lot of moving parts gets out of whack, we will end up with another fucking crisis in no time.

Same actors, similar astrological alignments ( not that many to the downside and more to the upside) and the potential for some big splash bank failure in two or three weeks, so and I'm just waiting.

Maybe some pundits can find all this debt issue almost amusing, something easily resolved in the next few days. Like no chance at all that anything could go wrong.

That confidence unnerves me, while witnessing how the maffia rings of the ruling class fight to see which group gets the lion's share this time.

If it hadn't been for this fine astrological moment I would have been in that same camp too, about the debt (just a well crafted, well timed fear instilled to the population in order to exact benefits).

In what can probably be define as a rare and highly sophisticated form of "capitalism" but just for a few, we notice that they require an extremely active presence of the state (Federal Governmnet) as a sugar daddy figure, to whom all of them love to beg to, so they don't fail.Negating of course, the creative destruction of real capitalism.

Talking about sugar, sugar growers live out of subsidies from the state/consumers, and ethanol producers, and...where capitalism went?

All these criminal clowns, like any aristocratic clown is going to sell people hard that they are capitalists, ruling from Gotham City the nation. What did you expect? Ever heard of the 5th ammendment?

Their lack of practice mastering real capitalism is what make me nervous about the whole debt thing.

All this thinking aloud does not mean a definite direction but is way to show that there's chances of a big move Aug 9th-12th, in my view.

I'm wary to see a lot of alignments that can reenact in a mini scale, a painful time like the 30's but at least the forces that can produce an upward break now are present, and are many, compared to that old time who displayed only two bullish potential alignments. And we all know what happen to them, got crushed with massive amounts of downward antagonic forces .

So no clue yet about the direction but July 30th could mean a smaller pivot and August 9-12 as the big pivot that after all these months, can get the stock market moving again.

Next time I'm going to see if I can fine tune the direction.

Good luck everybody

Dan