forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisors analyzed Republican and Democratic debt proposals and said either plan would significantly slow economic growth if enacted.
Whether you agree that we need to cut our addiction to debt (and I do) We can't pull 3 Trillion in the economy and expect things to get better.
I don't know why we're even calling this a Great Recession anymore, I think we're at the beginning of a long slow slide into Depression.
So maybe 2012 will be an anti-incumbent year. Maybe The Sheeple are waking up and we'll throw out all the extremists on both sides. Bring back the moderate republicans and the blue dog democrats.
More freak weather for us. Out in the desert this weekend, it's 84 degrees and 80% Humidity with thunderstorms all around us. Feels like Hawaii outside!
Thor - Just saw the picture you put up and thought, my...my...Someone is being pessimistic this morning :)
On an aside note, does your partner do any business with McKesson Drugs Co?
Back when I worked at the pharmacy, we did business with them all the time as they were our supplier and I was able to pilfer.....Errrrr Collect several of their purple plastic tots (Which are great for storing stuff)
The reason I am asking is because I saw a couple jobs they have listed and was curious if it would be worth while to apply.
I entered VXX at the open this AM. I know it's a short trade, but will be looking for more weakness and shorting possibilities. I think the politics won't let us get through what we need to get through to recover. There's just too much playing around iwith the market.
So long-term, I'm looking for a retreat.
But I lose my opinion when the market opens so I don't lose my money.
As Thor said, a cut in government spending means the overall economy will suffer. The reaction you saw this A was a knee-jerk.
If the US receives a downgrade from S&P, it may push the market higher, but that too will be a short-term reaction, so if you're short and we get that pop, hold on.
S&P is the source of my quote above.
But don't focus on what the MSM is focused on. this is only news. Focus on the real truth which is the debt situation in Europe far outweighs the situation in the US. They just want us to look away. Kind of like a 2-ring circus.
HSBC, Europe's largest bank, has announced a 30000 job cut rogram. US CPI is 2.9%. The fed's hands are tied, they can't do anything right now to limit or lower inflation to the 2.1% they want.
You remember the graph of an LC response to a unit step function? We're there in the market, with the government providing the EMF pulse. With no internal resistance to damp it, we may be oscillating for awhile.
LOL emmy. We may see some really crazy ass low rates before this thing is over. And all the while the idiots will keep crowing about invisible "bond vigilantes". It's absurd but fits perfectly with everything else that's going on.
That article I posted, however creepy, is a THE must-read of the day. This country is on a slow motion train wreck to oblivion. In the meantime, party down all! LOL.
The OBL Top lives on. Since his actions on 9/11 basically caused us to destroy ourselves as a nation over the past decade, it's eerily quite fitting that his death should be THE top in this latest Potemkin run up in the markets.
Rock – Congratulations on finding the right car for you, I hope you have fun with it.
And I hear you on the exercise program, I would not say I am way out of shape, but I am getting soft and once my son starts back to school, I will hopefully be able to get back at it.
Emmanuel117 (10:13) - You did the smart thing by getting out of your position this weekend. Especially with as much uncertainty there is out there.
The only reason I kept mine over the weekend, was because I really did not think they would pass the Debt Ceiling until today or so.
When I got up this morning and checked which way the market was going, I almost crapped my pants, cuz I was down about 3.5% and that had taken almost all of the profit, fortunately (Only due to luck) I was not able to exit on the opening.
But in the end it is always better to take a profit - And hopefully you did that :)
My program of choice is Thor's P90X. As soon as I get a permanent address, I'm ordering the pull up bar (only 59 + S&H) and will put those tapes back on the PC.
I won't have access to a gym, but that P90X program took 20 lbs off me before, (and I held it off) now I have about 35 more to remove.
Rock - P90X is an awesome program. We're actually developing another new product, one I'm in the test group for. Can't tell you what it is or I'd have to kill you, but I can say, that the results are incredible after only 5 weeks. . . 10 more days to go in the program but I think this one will be a huge hit as well.
Wowzers, just catching up on my reading. You guys weren't kidding about the ISM reading.
I've heard that the vast majority of these cuts will come in the next fiscal year. I don't know why the MSM keeps saying that, as if the economy is going to be any better in a year or two than it is now.
So we'll see once and for all whether or not Keynes was right. Sucks that us little guys are really just along for the ride here. We need a new government. A completely new government, at this point I fear we'd be better just trashing everything we have an starting from scratch. Cut out all the cancer.
I realize the way our systme is set up that it's VERY tough to have more than two viable politicle parties in this country, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the parties splinter off into four parties at some point. It may take some time, but I see at forming over time as the following: the hard left and right, as both become more disenchanted with the Dems and GOP, and then the two corporatist parties in the center who would be the current Dems and GOP fighting for the interests of their corporate masters. How that plays out is anyone's guess.
Manny - that's one possibility. I've often thought the silent third party (Independents) would just form their own political party at some point. Independents are a larger overall voting block that Republicans these days aren't they?
A comment over at NC that I think sums it up for me pretty f***'n well.
And I had just written this and posted it at The Washington Post before I read your column: “The immorality is staggering. And to think everyone thinks Obama is weak, and here in his moment of triumph he has gone against the wishes of over 80 percent of America, handing the decision making in this country over to some of the most dishonest and uneducated and vicious characters we have seen on our public stage in my lifetime. Obama proposes that hundreds of thousands of people should lose heath care coverage, and many will die, but Bank of America and General Electric and Exxon will not be required to pay any taxes. It is warfare by drone — the target is America– the sickest first, and then affecting every man, woman and child in the country. I will never vote for anyone who signs on to this monstrosity. It presupposes that our democracy is dead and buried and no longer functions. Ahem, and that is what it proves.”
And can we PLEASE put to bed the idea that obama is even remotely "left leaning". He took a position in this monstrosity that was quite a bit farther to the right than Clinton. Who himself was already pretty far to the right!
Figured I'd put up something dramatic for the weekend open thread pic. Seems like we're just about to here anyhow. . .
ReplyDeleteforecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisors analyzed Republican and Democratic debt proposals and said either plan would significantly slow economic growth if enacted.
ReplyDeleteWhether you agree that we need to cut our addiction to debt (and I do) We can't pull 3 Trillion in the economy and expect things to get better.
I don't know why we're even calling this a Great Recession anymore, I think we're at the beginning of a long slow slide into Depression.
Good article here. Here's the money quote:
ReplyDelete"Oddly, many voters prefer the policies of Democrats to the policies of Republicans. They just don’t trust the Democrats to carry out those promises."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/opinion/sunday/tuning-out-the-democrats.html
Manny - I would agree with that, how about you?
ReplyDeleteSo maybe 2012 will be an anti-incumbent year. Maybe The Sheeple are waking up and we'll throw out all the extremists on both sides. Bring back the moderate republicans and the blue dog democrats.
AND - Maybe Grampa McCain can begin to repair his shattered reputation and lead the charge from the Right to eject the Tea Baggers. . .
ReplyDeleteMore freak weather for us. Out in the desert this weekend, it's 84 degrees and 80% Humidity with thunderstorms all around us. Feels like Hawaii outside!
ReplyDeleteThor - Just saw the picture you put up and thought, my...my...Someone is being pessimistic this morning :)
ReplyDeleteOn an aside note, does your partner do any business with McKesson Drugs Co?
Back when I worked at the pharmacy, we did business with them all the time as they were our supplier and I was able to pilfer.....Errrrr Collect several of their purple plastic tots (Which are great for storing stuff)
The reason I am asking is because I saw a couple jobs they have listed and was curious if it would be worth while to apply.
Thanks
Mangy Mutt
Mutt - I'll ask him when he gets back with his parents.
ReplyDeleteAlso - Re: this deal. I wonder if the R's are now going to lose Seniors? They look pretty serious about wanting to chop Medicare.
"anything short of 4 trillion won't do it"
ReplyDeleteI entered VXX at the open this AM. I know it's a short trade, but will be looking for more weakness and shorting possibilities. I think the politics won't let us get through what we need to get through to recover. There's just too much playing around iwith the market.
So long-term, I'm looking for a retreat.
But I lose my opinion when the market opens so I don't lose my money.
I figured they would reach a deal on the debt ceiling and before the August 2 dead line, I just figured it would be today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel117 If you got out over the weekend, good for you, if not the market is sinking fast, so hopefully you sill still be able to take a profit.
It seems the big question is "Where to from here?"
As a nation we can not keep taking on this kind of debt can we. Yet if they cut off/back some of the social programs we just may see riots.
Mutt
Rock - Good luck with your VXX, if you got it first thing this morning, it looks like you will be doing great.
ReplyDeleteThankfully I did not bail on my short either and am actually a little green.
Crazy market
Mutt
ISM falls. Lowest number since we were in recession.
ReplyDeleteFriday's numbers are going lower.
Hope you are all playing the tape with an ear to the news. As Thor says, the ecnomic near-term future is bleak.
A downgrade of the Treasury may give us a market pop as people exit treasuries, but it may be people like cash better, so the pop may be short-lived.
WOW - is that a straight line Down?
ReplyDeleteI thought the debt deal was supposed to be good for the market.
Maybe the market was partying too hard this weekend and someone needs to take it a cup of coffee.
Mutt
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteI got out. Beginning to travel the Path of Regret after hearing about the ISM numbers.
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteAs Thor said, a cut in government spending means the overall economy will suffer. The reaction you saw this A was a knee-jerk.
If the US receives a downgrade from S&P, it may push the market higher, but that too will be a short-term reaction, so if you're short and we get that pop, hold on.
S&P is the source of my quote above.
But don't focus on what the MSM is focused on. this is only news. Focus on the real truth which is the debt situation in Europe far outweighs the situation in the US. They just want us to look away. Kind of like a 2-ring circus.
HSBC, Europe's largest bank, has announced a 30000 job cut rogram. US CPI is 2.9%. The fed's hands are tied, they can't do anything right now to limit or lower inflation to the 2.1% they want.
You remember the graph of an LC response to a unit step function? We're there in the market, with the government providing the EMF pulse. With no internal resistance to damp it, we may be oscillating for awhile.
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteI bought a silver coupe 2005. AutomaticMy days of shifting are over. It has 12000 miles, and looks like it just came off the showroom floor.
I now have incentive to start a serious weight-loss program and take a course in yoga to increase my flexibility. Gettiong in and out is a challenge.
I would venture to guess this reversal this morning is an ominous sign for the markets and possibly the economy, no?
ReplyDeleteMy little TLT Engine that could is doing quite well though. LOL.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteBond vigilantes!
Neo-feudalism debt slavery in action?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/29/seeking-arrangement-college-students_n_913373.html
LOL emmy. We may see some really crazy ass low rates before this thing is over. And all the while the idiots will keep crowing about invisible "bond vigilantes". It's absurd but fits perfectly with everything else that's going on.
ReplyDeleteThat article I posted, however creepy, is a THE must-read of the day. This country is on a slow motion train wreck to oblivion. In the meantime, party down all! LOL.
ReplyDeleteThe OBL Top lives on. Since his actions on 9/11 basically caused us to destroy ourselves as a nation over the past decade, it's eerily quite fitting that his death should be THE top in this latest Potemkin run up in the markets.
ReplyDeleteRock – Congratulations on finding the right car for you, I hope you have fun with it.
ReplyDeleteAnd I hear you on the exercise program, I would not say I am way out of shape, but I am getting soft and once my son starts back to school, I will hopefully be able to get back at it.
Mutt
Heckuva a job, Washington. We are utterly leaderless and rudderless in the USofA.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel117 (10:13) - You did the smart thing by getting out of your position this weekend. Especially with as much uncertainty there is out there.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason I kept mine over the weekend, was because I really did not think they would pass the Debt Ceiling until today or so.
When I got up this morning and checked which way the market was going, I almost crapped my pants, cuz I was down about 3.5% and that had taken almost all of the profit, fortunately (Only due to luck) I was not able to exit on the opening.
But in the end it is always better to take a profit - And hopefully you did that :)
Mutt
Wow.. 1280 line taken. So much for the relief rally on US Debt ceiling deal, then...
ReplyDeleteCongratz to those fellows here who've ridden/are riding this little selling.:)
Passing by the Caves of Trader's Regret.
ReplyDelete@emmy: I've passed that cave MANY times in the last few years, mostly on the long side, but not on the short side.
ReplyDeleteThere's always my trusty little TLT, I guess. Small wins.
Mannwich - Passing those caves is part of the lesson plan, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteAnd it is never difficult to be put on that pathway.
Mutt
Goin' green again? A very difficult trading environment, to say the least. Glad I'm not a very active trader. Way too tough for this amateur.
ReplyDelete@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteMy program of choice is Thor's P90X. As soon as I get a permanent address, I'm ordering the pull up bar (only 59 + S&H) and will put those tapes back on the PC.
I won't have access to a gym, but that P90X program took 20 lbs off me before, (and I held it off) now I have about 35 more to remove.
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteIt was a good day for Rock. Being nimble was critical this AM. I was pretty much out this afternoon, had some meetings.
Hey guys, man what a tough day at work :-/
ReplyDeleteRock - P90X is an awesome program. We're actually developing another new product, one I'm in the test group for. Can't tell you what it is or I'd have to kill you, but I can say, that the results are incredible after only 5 weeks. . . 10 more days to go in the program but I think this one will be a huge hit as well.
Wowzers, just catching up on my reading. You guys weren't kidding about the ISM reading.
ReplyDeleteI've heard that the vast majority of these cuts will come in the next fiscal year. I don't know why the MSM keeps saying that, as if the economy is going to be any better in a year or two than it is now.
So we'll see once and for all whether or not Keynes was right. Sucks that us little guys are really just along for the ride here. We need a new government. A completely new government, at this point I fear we'd be better just trashing everything we have an starting from scratch. Cut out all the cancer.
I realize the way our systme is set up that it's VERY tough to have more than two viable politicle parties in this country, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the parties splinter off into four parties at some point. It may take some time, but I see at forming over time as the following: the hard left and right, as both become more disenchanted with the Dems and GOP, and then the two corporatist parties in the center who would be the current Dems and GOP fighting for the interests of their corporate masters. How that plays out is anyone's guess.
ReplyDeleteManny - that's one possibility. I've often thought the silent third party (Independents) would just form their own political party at some point. Independents are a larger overall voting block that Republicans these days aren't they?
ReplyDeleteA comment over at NC that I think sums it up for me pretty f***'n well.
ReplyDeleteAnd I had just written this and posted it at The Washington Post before I read your column:
“The immorality is staggering. And to think everyone thinks Obama is weak, and here in his moment of triumph he has gone against the wishes of over 80 percent of America, handing the decision making in this country over to some of the most dishonest and uneducated and vicious characters we have seen on our public stage in my lifetime.
Obama proposes that hundreds of thousands of people should lose heath care coverage, and many will die, but Bank of America and General Electric and Exxon will not be required to pay any taxes.
It is warfare by drone — the target is America– the sickest first, and then affecting every man, woman and child in the country.
I will never vote for anyone who signs on to this monstrosity. It presupposes that our democracy is dead and buried and no longer functions. Ahem, and that is what it proves.”
And can we PLEASE put to bed the idea that obama is even remotely "left leaning". He took a position in this monstrosity that was quite a bit farther to the right than Clinton. Who himself was already pretty far to the right!
ReplyDeleteManny - Who knows if this will go anywhere, but. . . . sheesh. . . . :-/
ReplyDeletehttp://www.americanselect.org/about