Patiently waiting here, that's really the tough part.
I expected Thursday 7th or Friday 8th, to be the last chance for a reversal that, if gaininig momentum, could very well have meant the end of the Sept 2010 uptrend.
It had a promising start Friday and Monday 11 but I mentioned that it had to go down fast and furious so to speak, to muster some strenght. But after past Monday it just went quiet and become a back and forth ping-pong kind of game among two 950 pounds gorillas in slow motion, with the clear intent to make the public appreciate the nuance of each and every one of the movements they have for display, between naps.
Yes, today we close at the lows but to be an important drop it should have had to do better than what it did. A mere 5% from the top since July 8th doesn't sound too strong.
My view is going to start switching back to the original trend by this coming Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday to the long side, if we keep performing in the same range of the past week. Because the time to mount an attack to the uptrend and make it revert big time is almost over, in my view, for several weeks at least.
The amount of constrains, astrologically speaking, that a potential down move have to face after Wednesday or Thursday are probably too great for it to become successful.
So back to square 1 and watching if 1280-1300 holds for two more days, in that case off to the races to the upside again.
Good luck everybody
Dan
It's Apple day. Could be their most important quarter yet.
ReplyDeleteThks Dan.so.. another push up in the making,possibly. I share your view for the 1294 line in the sand,can be extended to 1280.trade safe all.
ReplyDeleteWell,not exactly:you mentioned 1280 1300,close enough to1280 1294 being "final" supports,so to speak.:p
ReplyDeleteDan - Great write up, thank you for taking the time to share your point of view with us.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Morning all! Busy day so far :-/
ReplyDeleteGreat article - another nail in the coffin for the propaganda we keep hearing about US companies sitting on trillions.
ReplyDeletePlease respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1ff9be8-a3e5-11e0-9f5c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1SZVgXHA9
US companies have relatively high levels of cash compared with their total debt levels, though less than they had in 2006. Over the past decade, at least, these cash ratios have been a leading indicator of equity purchases by companies. There is therefore a good chance that corporate buying will support the equity market and may even drive it higher.
But official data from the Federal Reserve and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis show that US companies have near-record levels of debt, whether measured gross or net of cash, and whether compared with net worth or output.
This is startlingly at variance with the claims frequently made that US company balance sheets are in great shape. These claims derive from misuse of the data found in the balance sheets published by quoted companies.
Unlike the Fed’s data, these should not be used for comparing leverage at different times. One reason is that changes in inflation, for which the Fed’s data make due allowance, have a large impact over time. You should use the official data if you are in pursuit of the truth, though not necessarily if you are in pursuit of commission.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f1ff9be8-a3e5-11e0-9f5c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1SdOsevfJ
@Thor: Too much debt everywhere is really strangling everyone and everything, isn't it? Well, maybe everyone but the very top of the food chain, that is, but eventually it will strangle them too, which is why're they're in the process of taking everything that's not nailed down, exchanging their bad debts for actual assets, in the form of public assets, or the public commons. Asset stripping on a grand global scale.
ReplyDeleteQuite a difficult trading market these days, isn't it? Back and forth we go in a VERY tight range. This battle has a very toppy (as in THE top) feel to it to me, but of course I could be wrong. Again. LOL.
ReplyDeleteManny - Agree, wonder how they're going to get around to getting anything OUT of those public assets once deleveraging really takes hold. If RE prices around the word continue to fall, or even start to accelerate, those assets won't be worth a whole lot in another decade right?
ReplyDeleteWe tried to do something similar in CA but the bids that came back on the properties they wanted to sell came in far below what the state thought it would get that the sales was canceled. . .
@Thor: It's called massive "deflation" and I honestly think there's nothing they can do about it, but maybe slow it down over time, which means a long, slow slide in standard of living for most of us with the elites hoping that we won't notice it (or overtly rebel) if it's long enough and slow enough. Me-thinks that's wishful thinking.
ReplyDeleteWhat will happen once more and more throw in the towel on the wish that their homes will start to appreciate again (or at least start falling in value) and then on making their mortgage payments en masse? Me-thinks more banking troubles and bailouts. Obama and the Dems had the opportunity of a generation to show real leadership back in '09 and failed badly on an epic scale.
ReplyDeleteWhen in trouble, just move the goal posts, create your own "reality", and hope the Global Sheeple don't notice. Or care. And why not? It's worked like magic for decades now.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/senate-nears-debt-ceiling-consensus-which-revolves-around-changing-cpi-definition
Manny - I think it's wishful thinking as well. We joke about "The Sheeple" here a lot, but I think the internet has been a game changer as far as getting the news out there on what's really going on in the country, or has been going on for the last 30 years. GE not paying taxes as an example, or the lie that corporations are sitting on record amounts of cash.
ReplyDeleteThor (1:05) – I am in complete shock and dismay that the MSM would try and bamboozle us into thinking everything is ok with corporate cash rates.
ReplyDeleteI am in the same boat as both you and Mannwich as far as deflation is concerned,
My wife has been wanting to start buying houses and renting them out and under the current conditions her thought process and math are spot on, but my fear is real-estate prices still have a ways down to go and like Mannwich (1:44) points out if people start walking away en mass from paying their mortgages, the housing market has a long way down to go.
But the truth is houses were way over priced for years and during those years instead of getting an increase in pay, which then increased their purchasing power, many people took out ever increasing home loans to fund their vacations, cars and other expenses. And although they had money to (literally) burn people were not increasing their purchasing power, therefore the increase in their standard of living was only smoke and mirrors.
Now most Americans are swimming in debt, jobs are scarce and places that are hiring are doing so at a lower pay. College graduates are receiving their degrees with the chain of 10’s of thousands of dollars of debt which will drag them down And many of these degrees are in fields such as social work, which even in a great job market traditionally do not pay very well.
Until people are able to first find a job, then increase their income while paying down their student loans, there is a slim to no chance they will be able to afford to buy a house (At least not at current prices)
Which all helps point to deflation – When do the jaws snap shut, is anybodies guess, but I do believe they are starting to close.
Mangy Mutt
Agreed Thor. The awakening may be slow, and still a bit stubbornly delusional that everything is going to work out OK for them personally, but it is happening, albeit VERY slowly, so it's hard to notice unless you pay very close attention.
ReplyDeleteBOTH TLT AND equities up big today. Party on. Saved again by the bell! What a farce this is.....but it's OUR farce and if everyone who matters agrees to play along, this thing can go on for a long, long time.
ReplyDeleteThor (2:29) and the sheeple starting to see the truth.
ReplyDeleteI learned years ago not to listen to the news media and I believe most people learn this fairly early on in their lives, but listening to them is kind of like seeing a car crash.
There are injured people stuck inside the car, you know there is little to nothing you can do to help their suffering and in fact the sight of their blood is somewhat repulsive, but do we look away? No.
And it seems like most people are compelled to these things in the hope that understanding someone else’s suffering and pain will some how make thiers better.
They will say:
“Wow that poor bastard is all messed up, sure glad that wasn’t me”
Will they really try to help?
I believe most people know that the MSM only shows us car wrecks and that the truth of what is really happening is not too far off, but do they care?
Do they care that their rights and freedoms have been stole from them?
Sadly it just seems that most people are just glad they are not “That poor bastard”
Mutt
Mutt - so very many lies out there!
ReplyDeleteThat we need to lower corporate taxes so that businesses can create more jobs. . . . in China. :-P
@Wolf
ReplyDeleteYes I'm not precise with final numbers because I can not determine them using astrology. When I mention somme number I'm just trying to give a general idea about what I have in mind, I'm not beinng rigorous.
@Mutt
It's all good my friend.
Dan
Apple.....$7.79/share.
ReplyDeletePretty impressive, greg. Makes sense though - they are a high end (and trendy status) product that the affluent can afford so it's their time right now. And to think, I once owned that stock in the low 100's. One of my biggest mistakes ever.
ReplyDelete62% of sales from outside U.S. though?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/apple-crushes-earnings
@Manny, that's because there is more people outside the U.S. than in it.
ReplyDelete@Thor: So much for that "onerous" corporate tax rate meme. For large muli-national corps, that is.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-apple-cash-bank-vs-cash-taxes-paid
Greg - impressive. 20 million? Did Motorola ever sell that many Razers in a quarter?
ReplyDeleteManny - more of the same BS :P
Thor- not sure, but if they did I doubt they made any where near the same revenue.
ReplyDeleteoh no - the margins on those were razor thin.
ReplyDeleteGet it? nyuck nyuck nyuck :-P
you know it just occurred to me. We still have to go through the nightmare of the 2012 budget later this year.
ReplyDeleteCongrats S.Jobs and crew then.
ReplyDeleteHowever, judging by their current legal move against HTC and Android in general, it seems they know too well the end of the good times is near.
They deserved the profits for their great iPhone innovation. But, just like any innovation, others are coming to take their share of the pie.