What kind of swan?

Events in Japan made me postpone the discussion about the performance of the second batch of stocks from late November.

It's very sad what's happening and comes to mind the idea of some atomic curse for the japanese population. My hope is that they overcome the tragedies (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcano and nuclear spills) to get back to at least a certain kind of life where a sense of normalcy can piously mask what probably is going to be a permanent scar for a generation, this asumming that things don't spiral out of control like in a real black swan which I still don't think is present.

These are to me catastrophies but a black swan could be (if it's possible to imagine it), containments metal walls that unbelievably crumble (because more earthquakes or poor damage control or whatever) ending with half country obliterated from life, unusable, fleeing to the Korean Peninsula for safety, conflicts starting to escalate...and then panic will feed a black swan. I think cooler heads will prevail thanks to common sense.

But talking about common sense I was badly surprise reading MSM about the nuclear reactors and it's inmediate shutdown when the earthquake hit. About needing 48 hs to cool the fuel.

Not much common sense I saw in a sort of plan that doesn't provide for itself to complete the shutdown process safely without external input (electricity), the back up generators being low enough to the ground to get caught by the water (who designed this?) instead of being in an antiseismic structure 70 meters above ground and water stored already and ready to be pumped till everything stops.
Waste rods inside the main chamber with the risk of overheating and of course compounding the risk. The nuclear facilities close to the population instead of being deep in the mountains so if an earthquake hit it and damage them, being able to bury the damn thing with tons of concrete.

At that moment I thought that maybe common sense best practices weren't follow as I naturally assume in that kind of sensitive work.So that alone increases the odds of black swans and poor designs that we experience here (New Orleans-levees) it happened there too. This is very fertile terrain for unimaginable events because the cockiness of believing that an earthquake is not going to alter power lines, and if it does diesel generators are going to work even put close to the ground. And if they don't work we have batteries for 8 hours while the cool down requires days...

That's the point folks, when shit happens what we thought was under control and is not, we panic, black swans dwell right there.

The Nikkei is down 12% today, that is either panic or some big fish get caught flatfooted and the market is destroying him and making everybody nervous.

Overconfidence is at the root of tragic events with lack of common sense. Again hope cool heads prevail.


The market sounds panicky and I want to see what happens between Thursday to Monday.The drop yesterday night make me more wary of a clean break to the upside without more consolidation.

I was expecting several weeks ago an up move around now, the peak for that impulse is this weekend. There's not too much time left.

Anyway I'm more skeptic after the drop in the futures few hours ago below the lowest (in the past couple months) that we can move swiftly up, chances are that more retesting will come, at the minimum.

And if fails to brake up by late next week I'll be clearly on the correection camp for a while, so at the latest in 10-11 days we will get clarity about the direction that everything will take.April-May still remains like my primary target.

Still calls sppi- somx
spy puts and a less spy calls for insurance, if wrong.

Dan