Hello everybody, well here they are, half of the stocks that I mentioned in November just to keep track of what happened.
XOM Among the best of the pack. If keeps grinding up now will last at leat to the second week of February. Posible correction Jan16-29.
Correct.Up only 20% but smooth ride.Second have of Jan only saw consolidation not correction.
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MA Another with first class potential.If it drop will be little now. If it drops more should be till around Jan 21 and snapp back.September 2010 saw her bottom for a long while. Mid 2011 could be excellent for her.
Wrong, drop 20% with the wikileaks, spent all time recovering.Could still perform good by mid 2011 we are not there yet.
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TDW First days of July 2010 made the low for the year.Could keep going up now indeed but I'll pay attention to the first two weeks of December because there's risk to repeat the same impulsiveness observed in July so watch out.
After that is probably moving very steadily in a measure up movement till at least mid february 2011.
Correct moved more than XOM but less smoth by early Feb.Good one.
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EMC Is going to drop. Maybe not right now (it can keep going up with the trend) but I would be carefull. Around Dec 8 is the first weak spot and/or March-April 2011.
It should see a sizable drop or start chopping even though the trend goes up and when the trend stops she should correct 25%-30%. (Percentage numbers doesn't come with Astrology I mentioned them to offer a picture of what I would expect).
Who knows will see March-April first.
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PLCE This is good probably will outperform the trend in case it goes up but nothing spectacular.
But a very good one.
Wrong.Went up 15% the first two weeks but made a top there.
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PVG There are reasons to believe that this could have a very huge run up right now, like end of Nov early Dec. Can correct a little more but not for long.Keep an eye on any strong movement because can keep going and going. If I'm right by March can display an important 3-4 months leg up in a chart.
Hmmm, the run up was only 10% so was wrong, correct about doing it early december. will see what happens by March regarding a multimonth movement.
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HTS During the second week of December can finally resolve the choppiness.
It very much depends what the trend do at that time. There are good things but all in all honestly I don't like it too much. Will see.
Correct that resolve the choppiness by mid Dec that's very important to me.I'm trying to develop timing.Correct about that I didn't like it. Wrong because as of today it recovered and is at the same price level that in Nov.
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URBN This is a very good one could jump more then start consolidating something but will resume to the upside; good for a long term (couple years) of course with ups and downs but is very good.
Mmmm too early to tell.It didn't jump just kept consolidating 3 months.Will see next couple years.LOL.
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SLB I don't like this too much (to the upside) till mid 2011 to clear several things and at that point the trend could not be helping much.Even though can have it's moment late Feb mid March 2011 after that not too impresive.
Wrong. Will see if late Feb mid March instead of having it's moment means the opposite (a reversal).
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BJ I don't see it going anywhere for months. Will see how wrong I am LOL.
Probably reach a top for a while and will start correcting-chopping.
Correct. The graph is pure choppiness.
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DRQ It got chances to keep going up.Sure, but I will be terrorized if I had to be long around Christmas (26 really) and Feb 16. Of course is going to come down sometime and the first two dates are what I mentioned above, if it survives should be a good profit but man that's risky.
Somehow correct if we measure the drop between Dec 14 and Jan 10 we will get Dec 26 like the axis, the center of the correction, but the important thing is that pricewise is wrong by Christmass didn't dropped.
Very correct about Feb 16 at that point stop in it's track the up move and drop.
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Will present the second batch next week and see if it's worth as a methodology to research stocks.
Dan
Hello,
ReplyDeleteThks Dan for sharing your work, and updating us on current developments.
I seldom trade US stocks (when I trade real money that is), but may prove useful for other fellows.
My 2 cents to Mannys Mondays ending question :Is this most recent, and very short, shallow "correcton" over, with yet another push higher in offing? Or, do we go higher from here, or simply go sideways for a while?
ReplyDeleteI'd go for the continuation of the correction.
Still early in the week, but I think yesterday has printed key additional information on SPX weekly chart. Indeed, our steep little climb started in August 2010 has lost steam (broken the up trendline as shown on my updated chart).
ReplyDeleteNow I see 2 options:
ReplyDelete1) pause in the trend: we move sideways in the 1295/1345 trading range for some time
2) correction:markets fall and SPX gets to test the 1230 mark (that's only 6.5% south from where we stand now, and not even 10% from 1345 top)
I'd be inclined to go with the second option. Note that this same prediction failed once already, when I stated on Jan10th that we would correct to 1230.
Then we'll see how it behaves if it indeed reaches the 1230 line. If it holds, that would hint to a resuming of the uptrend. If it breaks, then we could see some dire action to the downside.
ReplyDelete(disc: not invested in this market, except for a big loser position in FXP..)
@Rock, yesterday 8:54AM: (...)it would be wonderful to know when these were happening and how it could be detected, maybe in the tick or trin or some other measure we could see before the close. Sigh.
ReplyDeleteJust my thoughts also. How do you profit from monitoring those unusual by recurring overnight moves? Must be feasible to design a strategy using this information.
In case someone missed it, here's your second chance to read that fascinating commentary by PragCap, as linked by Denise last week. Tries to find explanations to suspicious high volume buying in overnight SPX futures.
@I Can, yesterday 5:44PM:I hope she gets her Karma.The protesters burn down her home as she fled to Tripoli to be with her saviour.
ReplyDeleteDitto. And that's my belief. Natural laws taking care of giving justice.
With that, I think I've done more than my share of work in boosting your comments Dan.:p
ReplyDeleteSee you all later.
@Dastro
ReplyDeleteThanks for your review.
I think it's really hard to make long term calls, so I prefer making calls more short-term, maybe < 1 month timeframe, and make sure I have an exit strategy.
Still, you did a pretty good job, overall.
@WolfStreet:
ReplyDeleteIt's truly anybody's guess, and after reading that article the other day, I think the author forgot HFTs and their ability to calculate where and sizes of orders are.
The way it works is kind of like this: an order at ask goes in followed by another order at the same ask. How fast that second order is filled gives you a clue as to how much volume exists at that ask. If there is some time, then you've taken out all the volume at that ask, and somebody had to move an order down to that ask for your second order to be taken out. This would indicate a probability that there is no more at that ask, and you might move your order up, again measuring the time to fill. Then you might drop back to the original order to see how long it takes to move the ask down to your order. By doing this you can generate a probability map of how much volume is available at various asks. You might then decide to try to move the market and generate an order substantially above ask, and see how many other programs follow suit to see if you can start a trend.
I couldn't find access to the overnight data in chart form; TDAmeritrade doesn't let us trade overnight, and doesn't give us emini data at all.
But that's my guess what's happening. IMHO, it's not illegal. It's just using your leverage.
Weber Indicates ECB May Raise Rates Several Times This Year
ReplyDeleteNML up 7%. All that free "advertsing" in WSJ and Canadian newspapers yesterday.
ReplyDelete@Dan,
Thanks for sharing your picks with us.
ICan
Morning folks! Thank you for the post Dan!
ReplyDeleteDan - congrats on your calls! It takes a good character to revisit! Haven't seen very many traders (at all!) who will tell you the ones the get wrong. Just a lot of crowing about the one or two good calls they do make.
ReplyDeleteGood one Dan! This can't be good for the economy, and should continue to serve as a drag on things. I wonder if Benny can print enough to offset it in some material way?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, anecdotally, I've noticed that restaurants in my neighborhood don't seem quite as crowded recently. Any correlation with rising gas prices putting the kibosh on discretionary spending at these establishments?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/corelogic-111-million-us-properties.html
Here's our little bounce.
ReplyDeleteManny - Depressing, one thing to note. The "near negative equity" the people who have 5% or less. Wouldn't these folks technically have negative equity after the 5-6% commission they would have to pay just to sell? Together, negative and near negative (which is functionally negative) is 1 in THREE US homes with a mortgage?
ReplyDeleteThat stat revealing the homes over 50% underwater is just staggering. Why continue to stay and pay? Shows you just how irrational human beings are in reality. Someone should remind the economists from time to time.
ReplyDeleteYes, they (WE, meaning ME) would.....
ReplyDeleteThat was in response to you, Thor.
ReplyDeleteTLT sub 90 again.
ReplyDeleteRitholtz and Zerohedge both have posts on the end of QE2.
ReplyDelete"What Does QE2's End Means For Various Asset Classes?"- ritholtz.com
"Guest Post: The Coming Route". ZH
ICan
Manny, I think the end of QE2 will be the beginning of our true transformation into Japan. I can already feel it can't you? I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so! :P
ReplyDeleteWe'll keep this up for a decade, watch.
I'd tend to agree, Thor, although I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the Fed won't do QE3. Too much politicial pressure to do so.
ReplyDeleteManny, that's true, I'd say that they may face pressure for QE3 if the economy clearly starts to sputter. In this political climate though, I think there might be quite a few people in Washington actively hoping for another crash sometime sooner rather than later. I've often wondered if that's part of the plan here. Cut as many of the social programs as possible to inflict as much pain on the base of the Democratic party so that they're angry enough to abandon the democratic party. . .
ReplyDelete@Thor: I'm quite sure there's ONE party that would LOVE a crash leading up to the election, although they may share quite a bit more in the blame than they think, so they should be careful what they wish for. It could end up as the demise of BOTH parties and the current system as we know it. The public would be BEYOND furious.
ReplyDeleteRock and greg from yesterday looking quite prescient.
ReplyDeleteManny - was thinking the same thing earlier, our peeps are getting really good with their calls! I'm still playing the role of comic foil!
ReplyDeleteDaily S&P chart still looking mighty choppy. I think I'm in the sideways camp for a while.
ReplyDeleteDemocracy?
ReplyDelete"There are signs that a 'million women march' being held in Cairo to coincide with the International Women's Day is turning ugly".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/blog
A counter-protest attacked women's march. No woman on that new constituition committee.
ICan
@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteCiti is having hard time breaking through $4.62. Q1 earnings is what I am waiting for.
ICan
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteI had to look that up. At first, I thought it meant "expensive".
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteGood call on SU yesterday.
ICan
Good article - if I understand this correctly, QE and QE2 cannot induce inflation because the money supply is not increasing. Banks are not taking the money from the FED and loaning it out, they're just keeping it in reserve, evident in the extreme low level of new borrowing.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if that can change though, once the economy starts improving.
THE EXPLODING U.S. MONEY SUPPLY MYTH….
In recent weeks some hyperinflationists have succumbed to the reality that QE2 isn’t really adding net new financial assets to the private sector – it is indeed just an asset swap. But this hasn’t stopped them from claiming that QE2 directly results in an exploding money supply. This convoluted thinking claims that QE is directly funding government spending (as if the US government would have stopped spending money and folded up shop without QE2). So now the theory is that QE is really resulting in excess of $1.5T in new money in the form of deficit spending. This is flawed for reasons I have previously explained, but let’s not theorize about the money supply – let’s allow the facts to speak for themselves.
Over the years many have been quick to cite the monetary base as the direct transmission mechanism that would lead to the great hyperinflation. We all know the story – the Fed’s balance sheet explodes, the monetary base shoots higher and money starts flowing out of bank vaults like a volcanic overflow. But regular readers are all too aware that the monetary base has no correlation with the broader money supply. The reasoning is simple – the money multiplier is a myth. So, it doesn’t matter how many apples (reserves) the Fed puts on the shelves. It doesn’t result in more apple sales (loans). Banks are never reserve constrained. The explosion in reserves and continuing decline in loans makes this crystal clear. The Fed can continue to stuff banks with reserves and unless we see a substantive increase in lending the expansion of the monetary base will continue to be insignificant.
I've been watching NFLX, which is in a serious downchannel.
ReplyDeleteThe economy is improving, so people are going out, and not renting movies as much? Maybe. Maybe AMZN and GOOG competition will eat their lunch. And I don't follow AAPL closely enough to know if they've got movies yet or not. If they don't I'll bet dollars to donuts that's on the horizon.
I don't understand why the IPood 2 didn't have HDMI out. It would make the perfect AAPL movie download target if you could watch the movie on a real screen or theater.
Anyway, I'm thinking of shorting NFLX if it gets up to the top of it's downchannel at around 206 or so.
Really good article actually - the graphs on M2, more importantly China's own QE over the years is astonishing. I wonder how much the increase in food and energy prices has to do with China as opposed to the FED.
ReplyDeleteI'd hate to be the sucker that bought NFLX at 247.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI don't believe US banks are selling treasuries, and even if they tried, I'll bet the Fed would choose other candidates.
Remember, the banks can go to the window and get as much money as they want for 0% interest. The only reason to sell treasuries is to get cash. What for? buying more treasuries? I don't think so. No, the reason to sell Treasuries is to buy equities (or commodities but it's too late for that). (or loan for mortgages, bahahahaha)
So if I were a US bank, why would I sell something that's giving me 3% on my money when I can go get as much money as I want for free?
But who can't get that free money? Foreign banks, that's who. And foreign governments. Those are the folks that want to sell treasuries. So they can invest in equities, or perhaps Greek bonds that are paying what, 7% now?
And maybe the equities they're investing in are companies in their own countries, propping up their homeland. Or perhaps doing what I'm doing and buying RMB for 6%, probably safer than Greek bonds.
But that's why the money supply in the US isn't increasing. That money is going overseas.
And the Fed won't tell who's the recipient of those dollars.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteBTW, if China were at the door trying to sell treasuries, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Fed wouldn't consider those bids regardless the price.
Rock - Are we seeing huge volumes in the reselling of treasuries? Is that tracked anywhere? I thought the banks were taking the free money and parking it back at the FED itself which now pays a small amount of interest on it.
ReplyDeleteRock - oh yes, and remember, China can't sell those bonds anytime soon. They are the main mechanism in which they keep their currency peg.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYes, there are huge volumes of Treasuries being resold. The Fed bought 6.5 Billion $s worth yesterday.
600B$+/- by June/E unless they stretch it out.
And remember, the FED is apolitical. It won't matter to them at all if they decide to go to QEn. Unless Congress passes new laws redefining what the FED is and can do. Not likely. And also remember that Ben can't be jailed; Congress gave him complete immunity for anything and everything.....it's in the Tarp law, and never expires.
Rock, very good point! Can we expect a renewed "End The Fed" push from this new congress? or maybe the next new congress?
ReplyDeleteInteresting -
ReplyDeleteSprint Nextel may buy T-Mobile USA: Bloomberg
Shares of Sprint jumped nearly 5% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The Overland Park, Kan.-based mobile phone company is mulling the purchase of T-Mobile USA from its parent Deutsche Telekom AG, according to a report from Bloomberg, which cited unnamed sources. In return, Deutsche Telekom would take a major stake in the combined entity, the news service said. Talks have stalled over a disagreement about the value of T-Mobile USA.
And this . . . . .
ReplyDeleteIcahn returning all outside money from hedge fund
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Carl Icahn is returning all outside money from his $7 billion hedge fund firm Icahn Capital because the activist investor doesn't want to be responsible for losing other people's money if there's another financial crisis, according to a letter he sent to clients. "While we are not forecasting renewed market dislocation, this possibility cannot be dismissed," Icahn wrote in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by MarketWatch Tuesday. "Given the rapid market run-up over the past 2 years and our ongoing concerns about the economic outlook, and recent political tensions in the Middle East, I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis. After careful consideration of all relevant factors, we have determined to return all fee paying capital to investors."
Wonder if he knows something we don't . . .or maybe he knows something we DO!
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteWasn't it JFK who started a serious campaign to modify the FED's powers? He got dead.
@Thor: Sprint is awful. They clearly need to do something.
ReplyDeleteIs that right, Rock?
ReplyDeleteWow, that's interesting news about Icahn, Thor. Very interesting.
Department of Energy just released a statement saying their target for oil in 2011 is $105, so these high gas prices are here to stay awhile. Whether they cause a double dip or not, that's disposable income going away that many people are going to have to cut from somewhere else.
ReplyDelete"Banks flash a 'yield' sign". www,marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteBanks lead U.S. stocks higher as B of A reveals plan to up dividends and share buybacks.
Shitty(C) finally broke through $4.62.
ICan
Wolfie - SEE?!?!?! :-)
ReplyDeleteMalicious Apps Make Their Way into Android
MarketWatch
March 8, 2011
Google has come under fire after computer-security experts last week uncovered more than 50 malicious applications that were distributed from Google's Android Market. The exposed vulnerability raises questions about whether Google is serious enough about vetting apps before they hit the marketplace.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteYou need to ask a better historian than me. But to the best of my recollection, Kennedy fought against Cuba, Big oil (texas oil specifically) and the Fed.
A Texan was his predecessor, and a texan was his successor. He was shot in Texas. And he tried to get Texas Oil to pay their tax. I guess the odds are that Texas killed him. I think Jack Ruby was a texan too, but I forget.
But he also moved money creation to the Treasury, which was abolished when the silver certificates were abolished.
Who knows?
Tech bloodbath cometh?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/finisair-plummets-35-after-company-stuns-weak-outlook-chinese-business-slowdown-blamed
I thought this was very good:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/07/afghanistan-paul-craig-roberts_n_832427.html
QE3 inevitable?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/trimtabs-finds-social-benefits-are-equal-one-third-all-us-wages-and-salaries
Manny - VERY VERY good. The money quote warrants repeating.
ReplyDeleteThe GOP has changed. Under the influence of the neoconservatives, the GOP is becoming a Brownshirt party.
I am a constitutionalist, a civil libertarian who believes that the Constitution and the Bill of Rights are the FIRST things to be defended, not the last to be defended or that can be pushed aside in the name of "national security." Without the Constitution and the civil liberties that it guarantees, there can be no security.
When it comes to the market economy, I am a realist. I understand that, compared to a nation of farmers and artisans, a market economy--especially under free trade, jobs offshoring globalism--subjects people to massive economic insecurity and requires a strong social safety net. The idea that Republicans are espousing that the social safety net can be sacrificed in the name of deficit reduction in order to pay for wars of hegemony is insane, inhumane, and evil.
Such Republicans have nothing in common with President Reagan.
@Thor
ReplyDeleteOffshoring jobs and profits and avoiding taxes ain't in the constitution, pal.