Hello everybody.
This post is going to be short basically I was doing a lot of work for several months and started separating sometimes one stock performance's from the whole market, a long desired target. Still a lot of work to do but I'm getting there.
Basically mentioning what stocks I'm watching for either side of the trend.
I mentioned already that I'm monitoring APKT, COH probably not, DECK, VRSN, ACTG and TXRH as candidates for a drop if the general market went down back at the end of April. Some dropped some not, and COH was the one that went up so that's why I still watch it but with less enthusiasm.
VRSN is becoming after almost a month more of a wild card, up or down now so I want to studied it further because could generate a very strong move and I want to get it more clear the timing.
And on the long side I'm watching HAS, BANR, TSYS, NPSP PLXT besides following the ones that I mentioned a long ago like ACAS, EZPW or BSX and some other that maybe will pass the screen test by next week.
I don't have wrapped up both groups yet this is just following them to see what are they doing and how correlated their movements are with the main trend (or lack thereof).
So by next week I'll probably have some candidates that regardless what the main trend do have a good potential to do it's own stuff; all this of course in a normal kind of market (not explosive but really explosive upward move or rapture's time for equity markets). Just a market that acts like it does 90% of the time.
Good luck
Dan
Dan - Thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteThere are a couple on your list that I am familiar with, but others I do not know.
I will check some of them out to see if there is anything I can make of them too.
Thanks
Mutt
Yesterday, GS upgraded oil. Today, GS downgrades China, upgrades the nikkei???.
ReplyDelete"Goldman downgrades China, upgrades nikkei, as it hikes oil and other non-sequiturs". Zerohedge.com.
Downgrades China, upgrades oil?
ICan
The recoveryless recovery train rolls onward for most in this country.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/fed-governor-duke-recession-impact-on.html
C$D is up only against the Yen. It's odd if risk is on! Something is amiss.
ReplyDeleteICan
The world will now end on October 21 - businessinsider.com
ReplyDeleteCan believers/banks sue Harold Camping - those who took his advise and splurged on debt? Bailout?
Subprime?
What's the difference between Harold Camping and and money managers?
ICan
ICan - For the Memorial Day weeked we were thinking about heading up to Seattle then Possibly catching a fairy into Victoria B.C.
ReplyDeleteWe have made simular trips in years past and have kind of always enjoyed seeing our American dollars be able to purchase more then the Canadian dollar.
But this time one of the hotel rooms I was looking at had almost a 20% difference between what a Canadian and an American would pay.
It took me a while to figure out why... So now if we go it will not be over night.
Mutt
Guys - Correct me if I am wrong on this, but over the past couple years, on those rare occations the market had a strong down day, hasn't it typically recovered the next day?
ReplyDeleteIf so, what's up with today?
Mutt
@Mutt: Great point but we've basically been going sideways for months now. I'm staying with my stance that I have a hard time believing this goes too much higher right now, at least until some form of more QE is announced (and it WILL be done, but maybe not officially announced, although those in the know will get the word first and then we'll know it by the subsquent market action).
ReplyDelete@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteBeautiful British Columbia. I have family in Vancouver, Victoria, and other towns in B.C.
I am surprised that you have to pay 20% more. 20%?? The exchange rate I am looking at right now is 1C$D = 1.02xx. Even if you if pay 2 cents more for conversion cost - It'll be cheaper. Am I missing something?
Anyhow, I you have a good time and good luck.
ICan
Mannwich - Much agreement on QE -WHEN- the next round of QE takes place no one should be surprised.
ReplyDeleteAlso as far as world economies goe, we known that the U.S. is the best of the worst and no one should be surprised that TPTB will act in their best intrest instead of the good of the cause.
But with all weakening in China and the PIIGS, will Ben Bernanke, stall QE for a while allowing things to crack and crumble then ride in on his one trick pony shooting more QE all over the place or will he start shooting now to save any more down turn?
And seriously - If we (People who have no formal training in world ecomomics) can figure out that this all falls apart when QE and such games are stopped, why can TPTB see the danger they are causing?
Mutt
@Mutt: Aside from some taking VERY significant sacrifices (read: big financial losses from deflation) by TPTB, I don't think they believe they have a choice but to do what's being done. Remember, what's being done isn't for the good of the majority, but very small minority of elites. They're merely taking everything they can (e.g. undercaptilized banks with fraudulent financial statements taking bailout money and paying themselves big bonuses with it) and shifting the burden of real losses onto everyone else until the house of cards falls again. Once we all wrap our brains around this very thing, everything they do makes perfect sense.
ReplyDeleteSo they know damn well what they're doing and the "danger" they're causing because that "danger" is being foisted onto other people, namely, We the Sheeple.
ReplyDeleteICan - I do not have the numbers in front of me and it was only one hotel that broke out their prices in such a way, so I do not rememeber the exact numbers.
ReplyDeleteAlso I was checking for the Memerial Day weekend, which (I believe) is more of an American holiday. So that might have had something to do with the price diffence.
But now I am more curious on it and wondering if I should call some of the hotels closer to the border, to see if there consistantly that much a difference.
Cuz if it meant saving 20% it would be easy to pretend to be Canadia - I would have to do is call people Hosers and say Ehe A lot :)
Mutt
Morning folks! Late start today.
ReplyDeleteSeem to log in to Thor this morning for some reason
ReplyDeleteThor - It is probably because you are not using one of those cool, Blackberries or Droid phones.
ReplyDeleteGet with the program :)
Mutt
@Mutt,1:36PM: +1. QOTD.
ReplyDeleteExcept for the Blackberry part that is.
ReplyDeleteMutt - Hah, well I was using my iPhone - maybe Google is pulling a Microsoft ;-) I thought we'd get more of a bounce today. That we're not careening down right now is telling.
ReplyDeleteTHis is good -
ReplyDeletehttp://pragcap.com/10-banks-which-pose-the-greatest-systemic
BofA and Citi are numbers one and two.
“The first step that Engle and colleagues propose is to calculate what they call the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) associated with a given financial institution. This is an estimate, based on recent dynamic variances and correlations of observed stock prices, of how much the stock valuation of a given institution would be expected to fall today if the overall market were to decline by more than 2%. This is essentially a time-varying tail-event beta, details of whose estimation can be found here.
They next used a dynamic simulation to extrapolate from the MES an estimate of how much the stock would fall in the event of a full financial crisis, defined as a 40% decline in a broad market stock index over a space of 6 months. They estimate this number to be around 18 times the daily MES.
The last step is to compare the magnitude of the decline with the firm’s current equity and liabilities, and calculate how much more capital the firm would need to raise in order to remain solvent in the event of another financial crisis. This measure, which they describe as the “systemic risk” associated with the firm, can either be reported in terms of how big the shortfall of that firm would be (in billions of dollars), or in terms of the percentage of the shortfall across all financial firms contributed by that single institution.”
re QE3: that perspective looks so crazy. Especially so in a Western world which is already crawling under debt, with the end game even looming for one European nation.
ReplyDeleteAdd to this the fact that economists are far from reaching a conscensus about the positive effects of QE1 and 2 on US economy, while they seem to agree on the bad side effects (inflation mostly).
Finally, add into this mix deteriorating economic perspectives for the world economy (as emphasized by Mutt).
Given all this, (and again, not being an "expert" - thanks god), I believe it is just common sense to wonder the rationality behind yet another round of QE.
ReplyDeleteI for one don't think there will be a third round. However, in case it does happen that would mean one thing to me, at least: that US authorities don't have an exit plan for getting out of their now obviously failed economic policy.
Just my 2 cents. Gotta go. Trade safe all;)
ReplyDelete@Wolfie: Great point, but aside from actual fiscal stimulus (which is a non-starter right now politically), what other choice do they have from a policy standpoint to keep their reflation efforts from collapsing in on itself? They are way too far down this path to turn back now without severe political and real repercussions.
ReplyDeleteManny - I think they'll continue with QE3 but call it something else. Remember, the Federal Reserve don't technically have to worry about politics. I'll bet we really start sinking again this summer, something will be done to prevent another crash.
ReplyDeleteOf course, they may very well have fired every bullet in their chamber.. . .
WolfStreet - It seems having an Exit Plan is something TPTB do not think they need. George Bush Sr, had one in the first Gulf War and exercised it with great skill (IMHO) George Bush the Jr, got the U.S. into Gulf War II and Afghanistan - With NO Exit Plan.
ReplyDeleteAnd just as we kill OBL the U.S. now sits in Libya, with NO Exit Plan.
It almost seems as if TPTB consider an Exit Plan a trivial detail.
I would not be surprised if Ben Bernanke, believed so strongly that QE and most certainly QE2 would work that he never considered needing and Exit Plan.
Now what choice does he have?
Either way we fail, it just might take longer to get to the fail point with another round of QE
Mutt
Man TBP has really quieted down a lot the last couple months. Wonder what that's about, people just burned out on the topic?
ReplyDeleteSo I read this article about Strouss Kahn and had to laugh.
ReplyDelete"He has been calling around, but no broker wants to work with him," a top broker said. "He wants to find a broker who will help secure a place for him with more privacy so he won't be harassed, and he is not particular about the neighborhood."
The Poor baby doesn't want to be harassed, but can not find anyone to help him - BAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Now THAT makes me happy - I hope the piece of shit rapist gets run out of every neighborhood.
Mangy Mutt
Different rules for the Plutocracy :-/
ReplyDeleteWolfie,
ReplyDeleteI left a message for you on the previous thread.
Back from an incredible tapas dinner and then we walked by two Gaudi structures so elegantly lit at night.
Casa Batllo
Also at that link is the magnificent "La Sagrada Familia Basilica" which we visited today.
ReplyDeleteBarcelona is just a beautiful city with a quaint older city and wide boulevards in the newer sections. Great food, too.
Denise - I'm so jealous!!
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to tell how the economy is doing here as where we are in the central city it is crowded with tourists and citizens. Our hotel is fully booked, but we had heard of many discounts being offered to bring people in.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteIt is quite overwhelming to be here in Spain with all of it's history, beautiful landscapes and cities. I was not prepared for the totality of the experience with the icing on the cake of Barcelona, and Gaudi. Plus our lectures have provided a foundation for understanding the history, politics, economy and lifestyle here.
The people here are warm and will converse with you at every opportunity. Very different from England or France. (sorry, Wolfie) Fascinating discussions have come out of casual conversations.
ReplyDeleteThe only downside is the fear of pick pockets so we don't carry anything we don't want to lose. Just a few Euro, sun glasses, water and maybe a map is all we carry.
Other than that we feel very safe walking the streets in the evening, lots of night life, cafes, and people walking about.
Now that I have finally adjusted to the time change it is almost time to come home. But we will be glad to come home and hope that the volcanic dust will not come this far south.
ReplyDeleteDenise - sounds like you're having a fascinating trip! You have to hook me up with your travel company, I like all the cultural and political stuff you have included in yours. I love talking to locals as much as I do seeing new places. You get such a different perspective on life. Things that are important to you, or to people in this country, are of no concern to people in other places, and that makes you reflect on just how badly you really need some of those "things". . .
ReplyDelete