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Monday, March 28, 2011

Manny Monday Open Thread

What does the week have in store for us? Full steam ahead? Or a pause followed by another leg down?

33 comments:

  1. Dude.. My portfolio is taking a beating this morning. %%%% you GS, you can take your recommendation and stick it where it belongs, gosh!

    Ok, I'm aware one of the "rules" of successful trading is that you don't blame others for your mistakes. No matter what/who you think affected the outcome of your trade, it's your loss, and the consequence of your decision only.

    ==
    That being said, doesn't hurt flaming GS right...:'(

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  2. @Thor,previous post,7:01PM about advertising.

    re Thor:right, didn't cross my mind that you've worked in that industry, despite you mentioning it previously. You may want to share some memories/analysis of this business someday, may prove interesting I think.;)

    As for : I don't miss advertising, no way no how. Toxic business.", I trust your words on that one. Also,author Augusten Burroughs seems to adhere to this view, in one of his memoirs called "Dry". This autobiography takes place over a period where he was a successful ads creator (maybe he still is).

    The book therefore provides a peek into the world of the profession, and a gloomy one. A toxic, quite crazy business (which fits with the man's very peculiar personality).

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  3. An aside about Burroughs: in my opinion, one of the best memoirs authors, and book authors in general. If you enjoy reading non-fiction literature / memoirs (though some lives seem so dysfunctional that they may fit into the fiction category), odds are you won't be disappointed by that one.

    I've greatly enjoyed both "Running with scissors" (his childhood), and "Dry" (early adulthood). Not for the faint-hearted though,namely because of the heavy dose of "bad French" :p

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  4. Morning all! Heading into LA, long commute!

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  5. DealBook:Is It A New Tech Bubble?

    "Let's see if it pops?".
    http://global.nytimes.com

    "Market rally or false spring? Drivatives may hold the answer.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe_investor/investment ideas/features/taking stock/


    ICan

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  6. @Emmy,

    EPI. Maybe due to Buffet in town.


    ICan

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  7. "market at key level". ritholtz.com/blog

    vix was down on Friday. ALso we still have POMO until June 30th.


    ALso, those who like intraday charts etc - Cobras intraday site.

    ICan

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  8. Greetings from sunny Colorado. Amazing thing, we left Nebraska with 29 degree temperatures, small snow falling, winds that would blow the doors off of your cars, and grey, grey, grey skies.

    2 1/2 hours later we are 2000 feet higher in elevation, 25 degrees warmer with blue skies. Still a bit windy, but the difference was between winter and spring. And the mountains are beautiful. Looks like a place we can call home.

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  9. Wolfie,

    When did French people start saying "Gosh"?

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  10. Emmy,

    Thanks for the link fest yesterday. Not all the way through it yet, but great stuff.

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  11. Market up once again, is this ground hog day again, in March?

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  12. Thunder boomers outside today. Looks like no pool today but pretty cool to watch. Meanwhile, The Bernank Put, the put to end all puts, rolls onward.

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  13. Out to look at some real estate today. I'll report back my findings.

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  14. Please do, Denise. We have our sights set on CO as well for the mid to longer term.

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  15. Denise - Are you anywhere near those fires? So sad that it's been so dry there that they're having fires so early in the Spring.

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  16. Rainy day here in senior land. Check out this amazing )long, but worth it) article. A reminder that real live conspiracies, however far-fetched they may seem on the surface, do exist.

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/04/04/110404fa_fact_grann?currentPage=all

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  17. Manny, what part of Florida are you in if you don't mind me asking?

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  18. SP500 turning red in the last 20 minutes, closed at the lows for the day:-0.27% at 1310.19. Kind of the usual EOD pumping, in reverse.

    Nothing to write home about either. But it may give us an impulse for breaking important supports tomorrow, starting with a confirmation of the 1312 support failure (ya I hear you, wishful thinking:p)

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  19. We should get a pretty decent payroll number for March. They just announced here recently that we had 100K new jobs created in CA last month. Not sure how much layoffs in public employees will affect the numbers.

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  20. In retirement land near Ocala, FL. Place called "The Villages". Someone should do a documentary film on this magical extended summer camp for seniors. Place buzzes with continual activity.

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  21. Manny - Don't forget that I live in such a place part time. I don't know how many old people there are in Palm Spring, but it's very high. Seems like old people love the heat!

    We stayed at a friends condo while our house was being finished and it was at a resort mostly for seniors. I couldn't believe how many different activities they had for seniors.

    If you've got money in this country, retirement can be pretty damn sweet.

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  22. @ICan,9:54AM: "market at key level". ritholtz.com/blog"

    Thanks buddy;) I had not checked his market updates today.

    Quote:"I have previously mentioned key levels to watch on various markets. I have been especially watching the S&P500 levels at 1310-15 — and we are right there."

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  23. Wolfie - close to your levels!

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  24. Rally petering out?

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  25. @Thor,4:43PM:yes, more than close, we're on the front lines. The bulls gave back the 1312 just before today close.!

    I find we're lucky that BR is sharing that much information, with frequent updates.

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  26. While BR weighing in on the 1310/1315 certainly gave me more confidence that we'd meet resistance, I wanted to clear some doubts about the timing:

    IIRC, the first time he mentioned this 1310/1315 area was on march22th:

    "Watch the S&P500 1310-1315 level — that could be key resistance where this rally fails"
    Media Appearance: CNBC Fast Money (3.22.11), at 4:30PM.

    I can say I pointed to this level just a few hours ahead of me:
    "I for one would like to see the SPY test the 1312 mark this week. In the perspective of 1312 being our lower high, that would provide a great opportunity to reenter the market on the short side (with tight stops set)."
    1:26 PM March 22, 2011, from Dan's thread comment section.

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  27. Libya:

    Iman al-Obeidi

    One brave woman. She was raped and held for two days. Escaped, went to a Tripoli hotel to speak to foreign correspondants where she was tackled by waiteresses and government minders and dragged away infront of the cameras. The NYTimes was the first to report her story!

    The govt tried to hush her story by saying she was insane, drunk, then they said she was a prostitute. Then they said she's been released.

    Her parents were on T.V. to say she is being held in Gaddaffi's compound as a human shield. The regime tried to bribe them also. "Give up all you want, but change your story".

    I guess they are afraid she'll be a credible witness at the Hague?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/


    ICan

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  28. Again, I'm not stating such stuff to prove anything to anyone (PLUS it may end up being wrong). I admit I would feel somewhat embarrassed in the event the markets end up rallying from here.

    But I know I wouldn't have no ego hindering me from jumping to the long side, if I decide it makes sense at the time. I'm not tied to any particular view. Profit is all I'm looking for.:p

    So, in regard to my comment above, I just wanted to clear any possible doubts about my technical analysis just being a mix of other people's opinions. This world is full of crooks, so doesn't hurt giving additional information, just in case.

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  29. @ICan, on Lybia: I've seen a video of this woman trying to make her case to the journalists at the hotel. That was pathetic to see the Lybian gestapo running all over the place trying to confiscate videos. You don't control information in the age of mobile internet. Not that way at least.

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  30. Also, I don't think you'll need that woman's case as food for a trial. There already are evidences of KGQKwaddafi's regime atrocities.

    Namely the Abu Salim case, which partly is at the origin of the current rebellion. I've read an account about that one, which is totally reminiscent of scenes from World War II genocide.

    For the info, in case you've not read about that one, here's a version of the events (emphasis mine):

    One of the most serious incidents of gross human rights violations, one which has become emblematic in Libya, is the Abu Salim mass prison killing of 1200 prisoners in 1996.

    (...)

    "By 9:00 a.m. they had forced hundreds of prisoners from blocks 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 into different courtyards. They moved the low security prisoners in block 2 to the military section and kept the prisoners in blocks 7 and 8, with individual cells, inside. Al-Shafa’i, who was behind the administration building with other kitchen workers at the time, told Human Rights Watch what happened next:

    At 11:00, a grenade was thrown into one of the courtyards. I did not see who threw it but I am sure it was a grenade. I heard an explosion and right after a constant shooting started from heavy weapons and Kalashnikovs from the top of the roofs. The shooting continued from 11:00 until 1:35.

    From Human Rights Watch

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  31. Syria's regime has its share of atrocities, too.. even more so, possibly.

    Ok, on those sad words, I go to enjoy a peaceful night, in a still peaceful and fine country. Evening all.

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  32. Wolfie - I need to start watching what's going on in Syria more closely. I'm specifically interested in what these protests there are going to do to the regimes support of Hamas. How much mischief is Syria going to be able to get itself into in Lebanon and Israel if their own street is actively working toward their demise?

    I think the long term consequences of the events going on in the Arab world today are going to have far reaching ramifications.

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  33. @WS,

    Consolidation day?

    http://www.tradermike.net

    httP://fundmymutualfund.com

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