I came across an on the long term budget difficulties for the State of California and a chart from the report really stuck out for me. I was aware that many of the states were going to be facing large budget deficits over the next several years, but I didn't know until today, just how bad that problem was going to become. Take a look.
All of these deficits will be money cut from state budgets, money being pulled out by way of less spending, less hiring, and less economic output. These budget shortfalls will be occurring at the same time the Boomer generation enters retirement and starts drawing down their retirement savings. All of which is coming to fruition in an extremely anti tax environment in this country.
Thor - Good post, thank you for taking the time to put it up for us.
ReplyDeleteAs you know, from running your own house hold, you need to pay for what you get and there are certain things we need to have that go without saying the only way to purchase them is on credit.
But if we decide we are going to throw parties and buy nick knacks that we don't need and put those things on credit, it wont be long until we have more bills and un-necessary stuff then we can handle.
For years...Decades the states have been living the high life and putting in place un-necissary programs, only because they could put it on credit.
Now the bills are due.
What truly amazes me is how long they can hold out and how slow they are to make necessary changes.
Mutt
Last we I took a small position in F and got a chance to set, re-set and move my stops.
ReplyDeleteAnd for the last week I have watched F wonder all around but never past the points I set, so yesterday it finally hit a stop and after trading fee's there was literally enuff profit for a cup of coffee. But at this point it is not about making big profits as much as learning.
Anyway, this morning Toyota announced it was shutting down some plants and F went up.
You just got to love how life works sometimes...
Mutt
Morning all! Congratulations on F Mutt. A profit is a profit!
ReplyDeleteThanks Thor - Yup a profit is a profit and it sure beats losing money. There is still a ton of stuff to learn and timing seems to be one of those things.
ReplyDeleteBut had I held it..... Woooo Hooo :)
Mutt
looks like our correction might be over, or at least taking a serious breather. Rally on Garth.
ReplyDeletePortugal doesn't even appear to have registered with the markets.
ReplyDeleteThor - It is Ben BerStupidAnke and all his money printing.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way this is going to end well, but until it does, up...Up...AND AWAY...
I am not big on making predictions, especially short term one, but my target is the market meanders upward till about DOW 13000 and S&P 1387, then we finally reach the threshold on things start to come apart, slowly at first then looooooook OUT BELOW.
Mutt
[calmly polishing his "sell short" weapon with a tissue, WolfStreet raises his eyes to watch the euphoria, then his gaze pauses briefly at the 1312 roof hanging above.
ReplyDeleteTurning his head, he gives a confident pat on a bag of dry powder sitting nearby the chair. Laughing to himself, he gets back to rubbing his shiny trigger...]
Mutt,
ReplyDeleteThe whole point of the trade is to observe, and learn and maybe make a few pennies while doing so.
You are approaching trading in the right way, using stops, making trades for the right reasons and using what you have learned to prepare yourself for your next trade.
There isn't a trader I know that hasn't gotten stopped out just to see the stock take off, so you are in great company.
Oh yeah, forgot to mention the soundtrack that goes with my comment above. Must be some music from Ennio Morricone, preferably from the movie "Once Upon a Time in the West". lol
ReplyDeleteCongratz Mutt also. Hopefully for you, you'll see more of this shiny green as your skills keep improving.
ReplyDeleteManny is probably already sitting on the beach!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteAs I was saying last week, the market showed extreme resiliency over the events in Japan, Libya and now the Portugal/European debt mess.
When a market doesn't crater on bad news, it means it is going up.
Denise - Thanks for the kind words and encouragement.
ReplyDeleteA teacher does not become a teacher, just by getting their degree, a police office does not become and office just because they finished training.
Like most occupations it takes a couple three years of actual experience to gain the skills they need to, to be effective.
You, Rock, ICan, Emmanual, Mannwich, Wolfstreet (Not including Thor in this list -Yet :p)and the others did not just wake up one day and became effective traders, it took years and you guys are still learning.
So for now it is one lesson at a time and maybe some day, I will get decent at this.
Mutt
Wowzers - look at what those socialists in Japan can do in six days. I wonder how they were able to do this, I thought government was inept and incompetent?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1369307/Japan-tsunami-earthquake-Road-repaired-SIX-days-destroyed.html
Denise - and going up like there's no tomorrow! These up days over the last week have been pretty impressive.
ReplyDeleteI think it says that maybe they think that money should be used for infrastructure repairs rather than tax cuts for the rich and corporations.
ReplyDeleteJust like those socialist hell holes in Scandinavia, (Norway has the highest standard of living in the world) other countries have their priorities straight, we get moronic birthers and tea partiers.
Forgot about the bailouts to those who caused the meltdown, Sweden, another socialist hell hole, let their banks go bankrupt rather than bail them out. I think I see a pattern here...
ReplyDeletere Thor,2:37PM:and going up like there's no tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteThere may well be no tomorrow for bulls before weeks. At least that's how I've been playing it so far anyway. I've enjoyed a (virtually) profitable ride from 1294 to now.
As mentioned previously, I was watching for the 1312 line. And here we are.
I believe this level represents a significant resistance, therefore providing for a high probability short trade. Cautious traders may want to wait for prices to pull back from the line, thus hinting at failure from the bulls. Reckless traders like me have already jumped in today. Only 10 minutes to go to get your tickets lads! Pick your weakest stock and take a seat:p
And here's the call:THAT is our lower high. Remember you heard it here first! (unless I'm wrong, in which case you didn't hear it from me right?)
ReplyDeleteI'll author my first post tomorrow morning :D, where I share my analysis for this scenario.
WolfStreet, I look forward to you post tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteAlso like you, I believe we are due for a pull back, just not sure how to play it.
Maybe I will take my tiny wienie profit from F and actually buy a coffee, to contemplate tomorrow.
Mutt
Another rate hike likely by India:
ReplyDelete"Food inflation back in double digits, rate hike likely".
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110325/biz.htm
ICan
@WS, Mutt,
ReplyDeleteI think I-Man was looking at 3/25 date? Important, trend change?
ICan
ICan - Not sure how or what I-man, was basing his trend change off of and I would really like to hear from Dan, to get his point of view.
ReplyDeleteWith the events of the past couple months along with how long and hard the market has pushed forward in the last two years without any meaningful correction, it seems like something ought to give.
But BerStupidAnke has kept the money flowing, which of course has pushed everything into speculation mode.
Last week, I said the market would continue upward until yesterday, so with the small sell off and F not doing as well as I thought it would, gave me enuff reason to pull out, because I thought today would be another down day and into next week.
But it seems now the news is turning good again, Japan is no longer in crisis stage, the Middle East is going as planed and no one seems to care about Portugal...This and the continued money printing has given me pause on tomorrow and next week being weakish.
Who knows, but as Thor says - Rally on Garth.
That is my 2 cents...Which is by the way exactly how much playing with F paid.
Mutt
Wolfie,
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your first post and your analysis.
We are in an area of resistance and have pulled back to the 61.8% retracement level.
"Bernanke to hold briefings". marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteFed Chairman says he'll hold regular press conferences for the first time in history".
Everyday single time he'll say,"JBFTD". No intrest rate increase. The Fed's got your back.
What else there to say.
The samething he says now.
ICan
Also from marketwatch.com
ReplyDelete"Bulls ride earnings hope". Q1 earnings, bonuses.
Japanese auto - trouble with parts. Ford is ok now, but may have to shut production later.
@Mutt,
Thanks!
ICan
Another day from hell. I shouldn't complain, I'm employed. Back after I drive home.
ReplyDeleteBuffet and Gates are in India:
ReplyDelete"Buffet and Gates prod India's wealthy to be more philanthropic".
"New Delhi: India's behind only the United States and China in its number of billionaires. But by global standards, its charitable giving is miserly".
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/business/global/
Ever heard an expression "Indian giver". And how they got so rich in the first place?. They were rich when the British left. They were the major beneficiaries to all that fiat money and know-how that landed in India under "globalisation". Kudos to the current Prime Minister for opening up India for trade.
Indians only give to religious organizations - billions. Funny how our people wrap their temple walls with gold, yet you see so much human misery. Religious giving is also due to belief in Karma(Indian giving).
India is a socialist/democratic country. No one should go hungry if they are willing to work. There is plenty of work, cann't find workers in my state. There are so many govt.schemes to bring the poor into mainstream. Food,fuel, medi-care, education for the poor are subsidised.
ICan
http://www.japanquakemap.com/
ReplyDeleteThis is fascinating to watch for awhile. I've gotten so nervous since this quake for some reason. It's been very very seismically quiet on the west coast. It seems like there have been huge quakes all up and down the plate boundaries, south America, japan, Indonesia, yet the west coast has been surprisingly quiet. That's not good!
We are still building in downtown LA - Check out this skyscraper, they're going to trick it out with LED lights. No advertising or text allowed though, just graphics apparently.
ReplyDeletehttp://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/03/wilshire_grand_shows_off_new_rendering_of_architectural_lighting.php