Anyway, I came across Stockcharts.com through AmenRa’s introduction of the 3LB to me. The 3LB is available there, and is a kind of point-and-figure charting technique which establishes a mathematical requirement to make a vertical bar. In a sense, it removes the chop and noise of a quickly changing market. It has quieted my entry-exit strategy a lot. So I was looking around on Stockcharts.com and found they have a bunch of indices that may prove to be useful. I found a ticker $SPXA50. This ticker is an index which shows how many stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average.
The other day, Dss was saying interesting things about market internals, so I’ve been reviewing some of the internals available at Stockcharts.com. Just for fun, I thought I’d overlay the $SPX.X (S&P 500 index) with the $SPXA50 index, and found found a highly interesting correlation. When you look at the pullbacks in the price chart of the S&P they are led by a trending down of the $SPXA50, except for one pullback which I’ve labeled pullback 4, which seems to coincide exactly in time. I did the best I could to line-up the two charts vertically. I did verify the start of the pullback timings using a feature that Stockcharts has called “interactive charts. Anyway, have a look:
This indicates that the $SPXA50 is a leading indicator to the price action of the S&P500..
It is interesting, is it not? The other thing to notice is the depth of the pullbacks on the A50. I could talk myself into believing that the depth of pullback indicates how deep the pullback will be on the price chart. Remember if you look at this, to calculate percentages, not absolutes, because the base continues to change.
One other comment is the pullback we’re in seems not too strong, from an A50 standpoint. But the A50’s not turned around yet. It is just that it’s slope is not so steep.
What? No comments?
ReplyDeleteGet ready for emotional swings. I think 100 point swings per day will be the norm for awhile because people are willing to sell off now on bad news. I think a few months ago while QE2 was going strong, the markets could (and did) absorb bad news without a whimper. But now, I think people are thingking "pullback is gonna come" so when there's bad news, look out below.
I think there's going to be more bad news than good news for the foreseeable future. I can't wait to see what happens when Iran gets pissed off.
@greg:
ReplyDeleteWhat happened? Can't Goldman spell "profits"?
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteGreat insight. Thank you for sharing with us. I think market was edgy before the Japan quake - no QE3. So obviously the market had no catalyst to go up.
ICan
I am watching the U.S. banks. There have been rumours of dividend increase. Have to find a link.
ReplyDeleteICan
In all this mayhem EPI didn't sell off.
ReplyDeleteDisc. no position.
ICan
@ICan
ReplyDeleteCENX is a strong one too. It's just marching along in its upchannel since Jan 21.
From Cobras Intraday comments thread:
ReplyDeletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=58
Institutions are in distribution mode(could be lagging info).
99er chart -diamond target -S&P 1242.
ICan
Morning all! Excellent post Rock!
ReplyDeleteOil back around 100 - well that didn't last long did it?
ReplyDeleteGood post, Rock.
ReplyDeleteIt pays to look at the internal statistics of any rally (and decline), when divergences start appearing it is time to look for an exit strategy.
Consolidation day after the large range day of yesterday. Consolidating around the close of yesterday and not making new lows given the continuing bad news in Japan is mildly positive.
ReplyDeleteRemember BOJ just did another QE of their own.
ReplyDeleteThat money will stay in the system.
"BOJ pours $183 billion into Japan economy - doubles asset purchaes on quake". noir.bloomberg.com
Japan will import lot of food/fuel and building materials.
ICan
Alright, scratch that last statement as we fall to new lows.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what just happened, a rumor or real news, but the volume on that plunge was huge.
ReplyDeleteWe are getting close to testing yesterday's lows.
ReplyDeleteYen is up sharply and oil is collapsing.
ReplyDeleteNasdaq taking out yesterday's lows.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - on our coverage of what's going on within Japan. We're not the only one's who notice the general incompetence of the MSM.
ReplyDeleteThe foreign press misunderstood this and started reporting that the TEPCO staff had evacuated the reactor causing a broad panic. Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times contacted the Nuclear Industry Safety Agency and TEPCO directly to clarify and confirmed that they had not in fact been evacuated, but just moved temporarily to a safer area inside the plant during the spike. Jun Seita then reported that as of 11:30AM, NHK was reporting that the staff were back to work.
The frustrating thing was that once this corrosive and sensational misinformation was in the main stream media via the wires, it was very hard to get them to fix it. Al Jazeera was the first that I saw to edit their news story to reflect that indeed they had not been evacuated.
At the same press conference Edano accidentally said 1000 millisievert instead of 1000 microsieverts causing further confusion in the media.
Is anyone else seeing these spikes and valleys? Down 116, then down 170, then down 120, then down 155. Or is that just Marketwatch?
ReplyDeleteRumor is that the Japanese nuclear plant is now out of control.
ReplyDeleteJP) EU's Energy Chief: Sees potential for catastrophic events in the next few hours as situation at Japan's nuclear plant is out of control (related EWJ ) $$
"U.S. stocks plunge after EU energy cheif's reporte comment on Japan's nuclear crisis". market watch.com.
ReplyDeleteResponsible?
ICan
That is what caused the sell off. Not sure if there is any truth to it. If it was only a rumor, it was a really tragic way for people to make some money from a catastrophe.
ReplyDeleteAs I said last night, since the situation in Japan is still unfolding, this market will be extremely volatile.
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteThis is where Twitter can be invaluable, someone hears the news and posts it immediately, the MSM sources have nothing.
Comments from Art Cashin about the Bahrain situation:
ReplyDelete...there are many who believe Iran has operatives in Bahrain fomenting unrest among the Shiite. Some see it as the key battleground between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance of the entire Persian Gulf. A geo-political earthquake, perhaps more powerful than the physical one that hit Japan may be brewing. What happens here may change the entire Middle East and could shift the balance of power in the world. The next five days may be critical.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-bahrain-is-a-geo-political-earthquake-more-powerful-than-the-one-that-hit-japan-2011-3#ixzz1GmDoq1hi
Never let a good crisis go to waste?
I think the selloff was due to NY Fed's announcement that the auction was cancelled. They mis-spoke, the auction was delayed.
ReplyDeleteSo you should see some recovery.
Time to buy SSO? Just for a scalp?
The Swans are certainly circling. Really incredible. No way is it time to buy. Maybe another 5-10% down leg and I'm a buyer. Maybe.
ReplyDeleteRock - You rock man, that was great stuff and fairly easy to understand.
ReplyDeleteI know Denise and a few others kind of dig on the noise of the market, because it allows them to grove to their own beat. For me (At this point in time) it is just noise and way to much of it at that.
But being able to look at the nuts and bolts and then be able to filter the noise through that, is a more simple concept that hopefully will be easier to understand.
Thanks
Mangy Mutt
Race to the bottom:
ReplyDeleteOhio Town Sees Public Job as Only Route to Middle Class
"Now, as Ohio’s legislature moves toward final approval of a bill that would chip away at public-sector unions, those workers say they see it as the opening bell in a race to the bottom. At stake, they say, is what little they have that makes them middle class. "
These people make too much money if they have enough to blow on a meal at "Hot Wings"! $9.00 an hour - what greedy bastards!
Japan earthquake: Japan warned over nuclear plants, WikiLeaks cables show
ReplyDeleteGod bless Wikileaks.
A test of the lows was inevitable, but now we will see if the next test doesn't hold.
ReplyDeleteIt's not look Japan isn't a total earthquake epicenter. How foolish of the Japanese government.
ReplyDeleteAnd there are many people alive who still remember or suffer from the effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs.
@Denise: The hubris of man. We don't know a lot more than we think we do. A lot more.
ReplyDelete...and woman. Excuse me.
ReplyDeleteDenise - yup yup, the MSM is becoming increasingly irrelevant. I hope that continues unabated, they have destroyed any shred of of what they had in their endless pursuit of panic and hype driven ratings.
ReplyDeleteFriend of mine just coined a good term for CNN - Coopers Non News.
Ican - All of that makes me wonder about the US's crumbling infrastructure. You'd think a bridge collapsing in Minnie and Hurricane Katrina would have been a big enough wake up call for us to get our house in order.
ReplyDeleteManny - were you there for that?
Dow down 152.
ReplyDeleteI was, Thor. Go over that bridge quite a bit too. They rebuilt it very quickly. Did a nice job, I think. That's the caveat. Under budget and time too.
ReplyDeleteWe have such short memories in this country and are always scrambling around chasing our tails in survival mode dealing with the squeakiest wheel about the here and now. 10 minutes ago is usually completely forgotten.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteThe country has spoken! They want budget slashing Republicans in power and the infrastructure be damned.
Bilionaires before bridges! Penny wise and pound foolish, but hey, aren't we the best country in the world?
Closing in on the lows of the day, again.
ReplyDeleteIt really is incredible, isn't it, Denise? Nevermind that's not what the people really want. They want JOBS. The tone deafness of both parties is just astounding. The pretty big cynical side of me thinks it's not an accident. Nobody can be this clueless, even those in D.C.
ReplyDeleteSad thing is that many of those people continue to vote against their own interests and with the party who is out to off shore their jobs, bust their unions, reduce their pay and eliminate their benefits, eliminate unemployment compensation, social security, medicare and medicaid, not to mention food stamps and free health care to indigent children.
ReplyDeleteBut hey, I still gots me my gun! And we want to see a white man in the white house.
It's leading us all off a cliff too. But those at the very top will be fine. Guess who the ire will get turned to next when all of the false enemies are done hammering each other, though?
ReplyDeleteThis could get really ugly if we break through the lows. Really ugly.
ReplyDeleteDenise - Oh, but when we do get our asses in gear, like they did in San Francisco with rebuilding the Bay Bridge, it takes forever.
ReplyDeleteManny - you make a very good point on that bridge - rebuilt in less than three years, while it's been nearly 22 years since the Bay Bridge was damaged in an Earthquake - delayed mostly be red tape, lawsuits over everything from bike lanes, or whether the bridge should go directly over some historic homes on Treasure Island. The Mayor of SF (Willie Brown) was party to many of the lawsuits.
So - careful what we wish for, a place that is 90% Democrat with absolutely no one on the right to oppose their agenda is no better than what we have now. I spent most of my life living in such a place and trust me, it's no paradise. They once tried to pass an ordinance in SF making it a crime to defecate on public sidewalks but had to withdraw it because the outcry from the homeless community was so loud.
A MUCH smaller bridge though, Thor. Really tiny compared to the Bay Bridge, but your point is well taken.
ReplyDeleteAt risk of sounding obnoxious, the top is in guys. Time for equity longs and any longs in risk assets to run for cover. The Swans be circling the globe.
ReplyDelete@Thor: This place generally leans left but has an independent and moderate streak in it that keeps it pretty well balanced overall, in my view.
ReplyDeleteNext possible support 1225 SPX.
ReplyDeleteWow, my little TLT humming again.
ReplyDelete"UBS on Japan's impact on S&P earnings and the american export industries most at risk".
ReplyDeletehttp://businessinsider.com/ubs-on-japan-impact-on-us-earnings-2011-3
Japan account for about 1.5% of S&P 500 revenue.
4.7% U.S. exports
5.3% of sales of foreign affliates of U.S. firms.
ICan
Manny - Until you realize that they originally built both the Golden Gate AND the Bay Bridge in less than three years to begin with. Most of it was lawsuits and red tape :-)
ReplyDeleteNothing in SF happens without a series of lawsuits. Just a way of life there. The city attorney's office had over 500 employees just to handle the load. Remember, SF was one of the principles with the lawsuits against big Tobacco.
Manny - LA is more to my liking politically. It's very liberal here obviously, but it's not nearly as strident or dogmatic as it is up in SF. Maybe we're more far right and SF is more Fringe right? Like the difference between Boner and Bachmann?
ReplyDeleteI find it hilarious and somewhat sad that our former GOP governor, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate while in MN, tring to recast himself as a far right Tea Partier. Same goes for Romney. Someone said this other day but it's obvious that the GOP fears its base, while the Dems despise theirs.
ReplyDeleteManny - Now if we could just figure out a way to swap the two we'd be set!
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteYour points are well taken, but in Chicago we have been Democrats forever, here it is just different Democratic factions fighting turf wars so there is plenty of opposition. CA is a nutty place no matter who is in power and does not represent the country as a whole.
And I think you have to differentiate between federal, state, and local governments. Where balanced budgets are mandatory you don't get many unfunded wars, unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, unfunded anything, at least for long.
Federally, we supposedly have a system of checks and balances which I totally agree is what we need, no party should control everything.
But what has happened in this country is the abdication of all common sense, morality, ethics, in the name of greed.
Where the top 1% control everything and are D, R, and I. Where people have been lied to and brainwashed to accept everything that politicians say and ridicule and despise what made this country great. We have ventured so far to the right that Richard Nixon and the Republicans of his era would be tarred and feathered as ultra left wing loony liberals.
Imagine a Republican proposing the EPA today and other programs proposed and enacted by Nixon.
@Denise: Me-thinks this is what happens when a culture goes completely to the extreme end of things in focusing on the individual over the collective. There needs to be a balance there, and we've slowly gone so far to tilted to the individual since the days of Reagan, that the pendulum needs to swing the other way at some point soon.
ReplyDeleteYes, and we all like to see a balance - everywhere. What is different about our lives now is the capture of the government, financial institutions, and corporations by a group of people who care nothing about governing, only for enriching themselves and strengthening their power base. The quaint notion that one side will check the other's excesses is gone.
ReplyDeleteAs we saw in Wisconsin, the right wants to destroy the unions, for purely political purposes. They want the working men and women to have no power over their destiny. How they do that is by taking away their benefits, and reducing their pay. And by union busting they take away the Democrats largest source of funds. Win, win for them.
Newpapers everywhere on that EU energy expert remarks!
ReplyDeleteC$D sold off against major currencies.
ICan
Wrote this over at BR's . . .
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised the Libertarians and Republicans are in support of Nuclear Energy at all. It's my understanding that the industry will require massive government subsidies just to get off the ground again. Isn't that technically Socialism? Why is it ok to subsidize oil, farmers, and the nuclear industry, but not ok to subsidize schools, poor people, or public transportation?
Denise - Most people I know who either live in, or have spent any time in Chicago, would say that it's every bit as dysfunctional and corruption prone as SF. Same for Boston - The Big Dig, being the most recent example I can think of.
ReplyDeleteMy point is that any place that has no opposition, even internal opposition, is going to have these kinds of problems. Houston or Oklahoma City are no exceptions.
@Thor: However, at least with the Big Dig, they have a tangible, useful thing that will help that city for decades. I loathe the corruption and waste all around but if we're going to waste money, at leat let there be something at the end that be of long term benefit to the public.
ReplyDeleteI guess my base point is that I very strongly believe that Democrats are just as bad as Republicans, just in a different way. What we really need in this country is a viable third party. Not the endless extreme back and forth we get every two years.
ReplyDeleteManny - I suppose, I'd rather live in a country where that kind of stuff doesn't happen at all. I realize there is no such country, but I can still hope right? :-)
ReplyDelete@Thor: Indeed, but I've come to grips that anything big is going to be rife with corruption and probably fraud and criminality. The key is to minimize it as much as possible and endure the end result is worth the means.
ReplyDelete@Dss
ReplyDeleteSorry for being so late in comment, have to pop in and out for work tonight.
about your 12:16, how 'bout a white woman? Haven't men scewed this up long enuff? I think it's time to see what a woman could do.
Hillary for President.
Christine for VP
Thor,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if I agree with the dysfunctional, but without corruption our city wouldn't function.
Things work pretty well here, but a big difference is that homeless people get no say about poop on the sidewalks. No one listens to them. Not a lot of crazy ballot initiatives, mostly we are a city of boring Midwestern working class people trying to get by.
I think that the difference is also because of the weather. And SF as a city is way more affluent than Chicago.
Denise - I wonder if that's because while Chicago focuses the bulk of it's liberalism on the the political system itself, SF spends more of it's time focusing on the social aspects of Liberalism.
ReplyDeleteLike Manny says though, it would probably be nearly impossible to have government without corruption.
Meanwhile on Wall Street - sheesh Louise, are we going to correct more than 10% I've started hearing the perma-bears come out with their old 600-900 mantra again.
ReplyDeleteRock - While your at it lets write Sarah Palin if for VP.
ReplyDeleteNow that would make for some interesting politics.
Mutt
Zerohedge.com:
ReplyDeleteEU commissioner was just expressing fear?
"Bull in china shop update: EU energy commissioner did not say a catastrophe was going to happen. Jest expressed his fear".
Wow. What moron.
ICan
Thor,
ReplyDeleteYour comment of 1:12. I strongly disagree with your point. While there are R's and D's in power that are terrible examples, but without Democrats there would be no laws and programs like anti-Child Labor, Workman's Comp, SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Unions, Minimum Wage, Public Schools, the GI Bill, public Universities, the Civil Rights and Equal Opportunity Bills, etc., the list is endless.
All of these programs were vigorously opposed by Republicans and they want to dismantle, defund, and eliminate all of these things. (Wisconsin is a great example)
It truly upsets me when people say there is little or no difference between the two parties; life in America would be very different without Democrats. And year by year we are headed toward a world that I do not recognize.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteNot a fan of Hillary as president, she would do an excellent job, but I could not take another 4 or 8 years of Bill.
Not sure who Christine is.
I am gender neutral with regard to politicians, I just want the best we can find to do the job.
When you see the socialist hellholes that are the Scandinavian countries and New Zealand just to name two, who are doing so much better than we are in things like infant mortality, providing health care to all of their citizens, free university to their students, etc. not to mention beating the US on so many measures, it is sad. Our country has squandered so many opportunities to be great and we are losing our standard of living inch by inch.
Testing the lows.
ReplyDeleteAAPL down 4%.
ReplyDeleteDow Down 225
ReplyDeleteWow, there it goes. Some crazy times we're living in.
ReplyDeleteEerily reminiscent of the second and more deadly market crash from GD I? I honestly hope not. The wheels could really come off everywhere in a big way if that happens. PPT anyone?
ReplyDeleteS&P 1242?
ReplyDelete99er chart from this morning.
ICan
Slo-mo Crash.
ReplyDeletewiped out all gains of 2011
ReplyDeleteICan
Commodities deflating with it too. TLT and Bucky smiling though.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Ben should just skip QE3 and jump right to 4?
ReplyDeleteAnd I think Japan is far from the only worry. We got the makings of WWIII potentially brewing the ME.
ReplyDeleteLink...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/middleeast/17bahrain.html?hp
Manny - I was thinking about that last night. This little proxy war going on in Bahrain between the Saudi's and the Iranians. How far could that go? And would we back Saudi Arabia if it came to it? Or let the two countries duke it out and send the economy back into the dark ages?
ReplyDeleteDude. Tighten your seatbelt. 1230 in sight, we will attempt a landing there.:p
ReplyDeleteSome buyers swooping in.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm not one of them.
ReplyDeleteMight be up, up, and away into the close.
ReplyDeleteI'll ask Greg's question from yesterday: do you think we could end up positive?
ReplyDeleteUm, nope.
I don't think so. Buying this dip a big gamble, IMO. Way too much uncertainty, and somewhat similar to '08/'09 in that regard. Maybe not quite as dire but we don't know for sure yet.
ReplyDeleteHey guys, sooo did I miss anything?
ReplyDelete@Rock, not sure what you mean by your Goldman comment this a.m.?
Market Watch has this yellow background and red letters headline: "Investor alert: Fear of Japan crisis heightens".
ReplyDeleteMSM feeds on fear.
ICan
Greg - naw, nothing at all, just a minor market correction :P
ReplyDeleteICan - sad isn't it? Is it the same way in Canada with your MSM?
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteBoring, bland.
ICan.
We will get a snapback rally soon, I think, but when? And will that just be to a sucker trap for the bulls?
ReplyDeleteTomorrow Manny, tomorrow's another day.
ReplyDeleteI'm going out on a limb and say snapback rally tomorrow but I don't know if it lasts even beyond tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI thought this was a very good post:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/japan-earthquake-shows-business-reengineering-relies-on-bogus-thinking-similar-to-financial-engineering.html
@Greg
ReplyDeleteThis morning, a brain-dead Goldman analyist said that because of Apple's iPhone supplier only made 24% more money, that Apple was in trouble. Of course, AAPL is about 5% of their business, but I think GS wanted AAPL stock to go down for some reason. Maybe they will be buying tomorrow, or soon. We'll see.
So it seems to be in good stead at GS, not only does your company need to make huge profits, but all your suppliers need to make huge profits as well.
When the trend turns, I'll be looking back at AAPL to re-enter.
Mannwich - Over the last couple days, I did fairly well. I was able to actually put into practice some of the things that have been discussed here and have done ok. So all that green has me feeling a little froggie - Just hope it doesn't make me croke -
ReplyDeleteI have not made enuff to buy a retire on yet, but it has been enuff to get a double Grande mocha latte. So TIF with your free coffee… drink it yourself...Well do save me a little for next week.
Anyway all that is to say, I am out of my short (Hey Denise- No peeking) and took a small long position. The number one reason behind that, is Ben Berstupidanke, is a student of the GD and it is his belief that higher equity prices will save us from ourselves. Second today’s humans seem to have the attention span of....Look A Squirrel.... Well their attention span is rather limited. We have already lost interest in the Middle East and by now (Unless they go Thermal Nuclear) the nuclear crises in Japan is getting kind of...LOOK anther Squirrel.....
I may be early, but I do believe we are due for a snap back, the only down side with my position is if we open well below my stops...then it is back to TIF's for free coffee, but I did save my latte cup, so at least it will look like I am still a big shot :)
Mangy Mutt
@mannwich
ReplyDeleteI think any rally will depend on the news. And the news in the middle east isn't so good.
Oops, did I forget about the news in Japan?
Oops, did I forget about European Sovereign debt?
Before we rally up to take out the highs, I think we have to get rid of at least one of the Bad News Bears. A snapback rally may happen but I doubt there will be conviction, so look for small volumes. Volumes the past 2 days have been 10 billion. Big volume.
Sheesh Rock - how can they stay in business with a mear 24% profit.
ReplyDeleteI would poo my pants if I made a 24% profit....Um just how much is 24% of nothing (I bet it is a HUGE number)
Mutt
Should have waited for your point of view Rock, cuz in a lot of ways you are right, but believe it or not, I have enuff faith in Ben Berstupidanke that he will somehow try and game things tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnyway if the market is way way up (At least 1%) you owe me a grande mocha latte, but if the market is down and closes red, I will wash out my Starbucks cup and get you a nice fresh coffee from TIF. If it is anywhere between 1% up and red then Thor owes us both a stake and lobster dinner :)
Mangy Mutt
Great point, Rock. The Swans, or vultures, rather, or circling hard again. Amazing. I think many of us knew the Benny-induced party wouldn't last that long but it's quite shocking to see events totally beyond their control bringing it to a halt, even though many predicted that's what ultimately would likely happen. Sometimes it's shocking to be right after being wrong about so much, especially when being right is so damn depressing.
ReplyDeleteWay to go, Mutt.
ReplyDeleteSo true about our attention spans. Sadly enough to admit.
Somehow I think this wouldn't bode well for global markets?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-holiday-imminent
And with that, I need to get my sweat on. Back later folks. How can I stay away?
ReplyDeleteyou better not stay away :P
ReplyDelete@Rock, I think it was some guy at JPM securities, which frankly sounds like a made up name to me, that downgraded, however your point is taken. I don't understand the need for analysts especially since they so rarely get anything right. I view them in the same light as bank CEO's, they can pretty much do whatever they like, without ever having to face any consequence. Their predictions, and let's face it, that's all they are, are always worded in such a way that they can't be wrong. If, or rather when Apple's numbers prove this guy wrong, he'll simply come up with a way to explain why the deceleration in Hon Hai's growth had no correlation to Apple. He also sees ipad sales,,,,,,wait for it......cannibalizing (yes) imac sales, although being sqeamish he chose to say "eating into", instead. We'll see next month.
ReplyDeleteGreg (5:51) - If analyst serve no real function in life and the normally get things wrong, that means I am well suited to be an AnalYst.
ReplyDeleteWooo Hoooo I found my calling in life thanks Greg.
Where do I sign up, does it pay good?
Mutt
I'd like to update you on my current trading progress, for I think that could motivate you too. It's all virtual, but I'm taking it extremely seriously, since my current system will dictate my results when I get back in for real.
ReplyDeleteA word of caution first: this virtual portofolio that I describe here was started on January 5th.
It's important to note that it's already my 7th to 10th virtual portfolio, since I've dumped the previous ones each time it went wrong too far... BUT, this is the first I've made it that far in terms of length, and of gains.
Hopefully I will remain steady in the long term, but that is very encouraging already.
So now, for the results:
ReplyDeleteProfits: 22.6% locked, 24.77% if I include the potential gain of 3.5% on my open trade up.
Nb of trades: 16 successful out of 21, +1 trade open which is green.
Average length: about 8 days.
If you're interested, you can see every details here. My profile page is linking back to this blog, so maybe we'll have new "frogs" drop by eventually :p (doubt it, since we're bad at foreign languages on average..:( )
BR really hit a nerve with that Confirmation Bias post.
ReplyDeleteHuge gap ups in Yen, Swiss.
ReplyDeleteDespite assuming you know by now that I'm not that kind of person, I emphasize again that I'm not showing this for bragging about how great I am.
ReplyDeleteI do it because I know I am glad seeing when other members of our community show some progress, so my guess is you like being updated on this from time to time too.
Talking of which, congratz Mutt! :D
ReplyDeleteI've got one tip: I know we're not there yet, but may come in useful in the future: instead of keep buying ever more mugs of coffee with the profits, consider buying factories. They make coffee AND profits! handy;)
WolfStreet - Good advice, but I will only concider companies that make more then a 24% profit year after year....Oh yea their suppliers need to make that much too.
ReplyDeleteIf you ain't mak'n at least 24% you ain't doing nothing :)
Mutt
Wolfie - No, not at all, you're most definitely not a braggart. I for one like the updates and I think we should all take credit for our good calls! I know I have so very few of them so I'm gonna take props when I can!
ReplyDeleteCongrats, Wolfie. The road to success and profitability is filled with stops and starts, profits and losses, and much anguish along the way. It is a very tough way to make a living, but it can be done.
ReplyDeleteIt took me years and years to find my way and I still stumble from time to time, but the most important part is the journey along the way.
I should share some of my stories when I first started out as they are pretty funny and scary.
Hope you have continuing good fortune and as we all know you make your own luck with hard work and dedication!
Thanks Denise! Well, I'm trying not to get ahead of myself. I've been in a string of great trades lately.
ReplyDeleteI won't jump in with real money tomorrow just based on a virtual 2m old porfolio. I think I'll see how I'm faring at the end of this year, at which point I'll put real cash if virtual profits are still good.
By the way, the last time I went to FL to see my folks, it was the lows of late Feb/early March. I go again next Thursday. I wonder if that's when either the bottom falls out or we get a snapback rally?
ReplyDeleteThis is what happens when morons misread (or pretend to) and overreach:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/16/conservatives-we-are-bein_n_836794.html
Charts at CA.
ReplyDeletere Good too know. We should all have a Manny and/or DSS "out of town" plugin to feed in our trading software.
ReplyDeleteAs for the datasource, you would not mind your car being tracked with the info sent online in real time, would you ?
If the experience proves conclusive, we could probably dig further, and see if we can find a correlation between the markets and Manny's out of bed, or Manny's out of toilets, or Manny's out of paper... ok. forget bout that. (For now:p)
re Denise: "I should share some of my stories when I first started out as they are pretty funny and scary."
ReplyDeleteWe'd sure enjoy reading about those sometimes.
That's 128 comments! Not bad for a thread which first comment (by the author himself what's more) reads:
ReplyDeleteWhat? No comments?
(Rock, 9:38 AM)
We may break more AT records quite soon, me-thinks.
ReplyDeleteFrom Barry's blog, and the post,"Bad Oehman:Confirmation bias, Sources & Astroturfing", a commenter provides a link to a story,"Fukushima situation as of Wednesday worsens, STILL NO CAUSE for alarm".
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/16/fukushima_wednesday/
"There remains no grounds for anyone to fear for their health".
Trying to read both sides of the story. The MSM and the blogs.
ICan
Another thought about posting updates.
ReplyDeleteI think this blog has been one of the most important contributor to my trading progesses. (another critical one is experience, namely the "cold steel" part, that was for real!:p)
So that's another reason that decided me to publish detailed results. As a general thank you for your insights (and for the good humor), with a special thanks to maestro Rock for his weekly trading lessons;)
@Manny, 7:55PM: I'm assuming the record was on Monday, 164 comments. Still some way to go there:)
ReplyDeleteI won't see it live anyway, going to bed, getting late on this side of the pond.
Have a great evening all!
Futures:
ReplyDeleteS&P 500 low 1244.50
ICan
It will be a double whammy when we are both gone the last week of March.
ReplyDeleteWolfie,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a gmail account?
Of course Wolfie has a gmail account. He's MISTER Google remember? :-P
ReplyDeleteSomething light for tomorrows post. I though we could use the levity.
ReplyDeleteDenise and Manny, you are both forbidden to be away at the same time. I'm sorry, but that's the way it is. One of you has to reschedule, and we'll leave that up to you to decide.
ReplyDeleteI found his gmail.
ReplyDeleteAnd it seems that Rock will be gone for a while during that same time frame. So three of us will be gone at the same time.
ReplyDeletegreg,
ReplyDeleteWho died and left you boss? First I have to buy Manny an iPad and now we can't leave town? Sheesh! :-)
Hah! A tri-fecta - thank god I'm staying in town. I fear if the four of us were all gone at once the planet would implode.
ReplyDeleteWe've talked about turning points - I'm learning quite a bit about my own biases lately. Watching so many of you turn bearish, some more so than other (cough, Manny, cough ;-). I'm struck by just how SLOW I am to change my outlook! I'm still clinging to "this correction is almost over". I don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. One the one hand, I'm not quick to change my mind, on the other hand, that slowness could cost me if I'm not careful!
ReplyDeleteAnd I must say, it's pretty cool that everyone is not only very respectful of everyone elses points of view, but no one judges people who's positions are evolving while yours are not staying the same. That none of us is actively trying to convert other people to our own position is a testament to something . . . I can't think of the right word at the moment :P
ReplyDeleteThor,
ReplyDeleteWe have our own brand of crazy here in Chicago:
Man trying to smoke out a squirrel sets his house on fire
Resident Robert Hughes was tired of hearing squirrels run around inside his walls, so he decided to smoke them out, WLS reports. Hughs set off a "rodent smoke bomb" in the gutter of his home, hoping the squirrels would run out of the hole that allowed them access to his walls. Unfortunately, the plan backfired.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteSome of us have been known to get into our gladiator suits and duke it out, but pretty much we are an accepting group. We all bring special things to the table but that doesn't always mean we have to agree on everything.
I especially like our international flavor, and mix of personalities.
I think educate is a better way to approach differences rather than covert. You can educate without converting.
ReplyDeleteabsoluately!
ReplyDeleteHilarious article!
Here's one from LA - I came across it in the planning and real estate blog I follow.
Number of Wig Shops on Crenshaw Boulevard Called "Alarming"
You don't have to click through to the article, I think the headline says it all.
Since many of our retailers went out of business during the recession they have been replaced by nail salons, which do not add to the tax base so everyone is all upset about them.
ReplyDeleteThere are things about urban living that I really enjoy. The grocery store is across the street, Chinese foot massage is across the street from that :-) Tranny hookers on the corner at Sunset at 7:00am on my way in to work in the morning. Not so much.
ReplyDeleteThor - Even though we are living in much bigger city, we still don't have a grocery store within walking distance and well the Chinese foot massage, would kind of be a silly thing to walk to because by the time you walked home, you would need to go again.
ReplyDeleteYears ago the girl I was dating was moving to Arizona and she asked me to go with her, I was really good friends with her family so I did. I do not remember what town we were driving through, but we kind of got lost but we got lost.
Here we are 5 white folks driving through a bad part of town in a Lincoln Town Car and on the corner on a pay phone we see a huge black guy in a hot pink dress and high heels.
So we did what any rational white folks in a Town Car would do....Drove around the block to get a better look.
We must of looked pretty silly with our faces pushed against the windshield staring at him and he obviously saw us, because he turned around flipped us off and yell "Fuck My Ass".
Anyway that is my tranny hooker story.
Mutt
Mutt - Hahaha, that's a great story!!
ReplyDelete