Time for a new herds report.
This report will be a little different than the previous ones. This one will include a new datapoint, called profits. It’s good to have relative strength greater than the market, but it’s even better to have profits.
Of course, with relative strength, you can feel good about your picks even when the market goes down, right? I mean, I lost less than the market, so I feel really good.
Nope.
Need profits. Gotta feed that insatiable hunger in my 40 pound overweight belly that increased in size while I was in Singapore (excuses, excuses…….)
So how do we get profits? Do we invest in individual stock names and pray for no bad headlines to take the wind out of our sails? Nope. Not me. I was doing that, being very very careful with my trades, and found that last year (2010) I increased my net worth 90%, but this year (for the first half year) only about 15%. After about May, I started to trade on volatility (still on individual stock names). I made a little more, but not enough more to make all that work worthwhile.
So I have a new theory. Go long ETFs with strength. Hence the herds report.
We’ve had a run since October 4th. I feel it’s time for a little rest before all the money coming in from Europe takes us higher again, so I’m looking for a pullback of maybe 5%. Well, rather, I’m hoping for a pullback of maybe 5%, because I’m only long at most one position at a time, primarily due to the volatility. I was hoping we’d hit the bottom of the trading range again, but I don’t think so anymore. I think the money flowing in from Europe will push us UpUpandAway again. So here’s my analysis: (the profit picture is since Oct 4) (the relative strength is based on the last 20 day period)
UYM, DIG > 50% profit, relative strength of 18%, RS slopes positive
USD > 40% profit, relative strength of 8.66%, RS slopes positive
UXI > 40% profit, relative strength of 10.2%, RS slopes slightly positive
XOP > 40% profit, relative strength of 14,5%, RS slopes positive
XES > 30% profit, relative strength of 10.2%, RS slopes high and flat
KOL > 30% profit, relative strength of 10.9%, RS slopes slightly positive
UYG > 30% profit, relative strength of 10.5%, RS slopes down
URE > 30% profit, relative strength of 12.9%, RS slopes down
SLX > 30% profit, relative strength of 9.4%, RS slopes slightly positive
XME > 30% profit, relative strength of 9.4%, RS slopes slightly positive
ROM > 30% profit, relative strength of 5.1%, RS slopes flat
If anyone’s interested in weakness (short weakness) I can post the weakest ETFs. It’s just that it’s really hard to short, and everybody hates you if you do.
Or, if anyone’s interested in a particular ETF, I can quickly run the analysis and give the results. I don’t monitor every ETF, so if you’ve got a favorite, let me know.
An update: Here's one of my favorite leading indicators. You know the last 6 days were up, right? But it looks like the 3LB of the number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average is down.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteI keep my shorts on until I get committed volume in the positive direction......
Iran is preparing to make nuclear weapons.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/un-report-said-to-conclude-iran-is-moving-toward-making-nuclear-weapon.html
I guess it's ok now that saddam is dead....
Bloomberg reports that Italy needs to roll over 2-3B euros in the next year to cover their debt interest coming due. The interest rates are likely to rise, to attract concerned investors, whoever they may be. Until they rise to the point where the risk is too great and nobody wants to buy the bonds.
ReplyDeleteMore trouble for the banks ahead. And other owners of european sov debt.
After the bears won, I was watching Bloomberg (nothing to do) who had a guy on who understood CDS's. Something I didn't realize until he said it is that you don't need to own the security to buy a CDS. You just need to bet on default. So the CDS investment is far greater than the value of all sovereign debt.
Wow, are the banks screwed, or what?
Morning guys!
ReplyDeleteRock - One of the very first things I learned about was CDS - And I still have NO clue how they work, but the more I learn about them the more it seems apparent NO one truly knows how they work.
ReplyDeleteBut from the little I can relate to them, they are like deadly viruses, that when added to other organic substances, helps them grow and flourish, the problem is once you add the virus to a substance you can not control where it goes or how it reacts.
This type of experiment may work good in a science lab where it can be controlled or shut down when needed, but out in the real world they will make everything grow and flourish until there is nothing left to consume and once it is started, it can not be stopped.
I hate to be pessimistic but it seems like the banks and now our gobermints are so infested and leveraged with the CDS virus that there is little chance this will be resolved orderly.
But only time will let us know.
Mangy Mutt
@Rock: Good thing we got rid of Iran's main counterbalance over there, Saddam. Glad that's been taken care of. Now can justify us attacking Iran too.
ReplyDeleteI'm with you, Rock, on the European money flows coming into U.S. equities and treasuries. Have been for a couple of weeks now.
Well, Bill Daly's gone. Obama is a poor CEO. I think the only cabinet member not replaced is Hillary, and I have suspicion that there was a written agreement at the convention.
ReplyDeleteHere's a fun article:
http://www.enduringvision.com/news/politics_021309.php
CDS' should be outlawed. Isn't that obvious by now after everything we've seen? The global bankers and elites have created a doomsday machine whereby they take outsized risks, and we bail them out when they go bust. What's not to like? For them, anyway.
ReplyDelete@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYeah. And thinking about it, it may be *us* that are screwed. I wonder how much is owned by AIG. I think we still own 60% of that.
Man, is this one slow train wreck or what? We're entering year four of this mess. . . .
ReplyDeleteOh, one of these days in the distant future the FED will just "forgive' all that treasury debt they keep buying up.
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteFor the last 5 days, IWM has been losing to the S&P.
This is not a good sign. Many think IWM leads the way to "risk on" trading. It may be the money is not flowing to the US (or it is going to the S&P companies, not the little guys, which could be a logical conclusion).
I have 2 concerns: 1) Bloomberg reported that european investors are going to Russia, and 2) the market volume is extremely light, and one would think if money were coming in, the volume would be higher.
It's not going into treasuries, TLT has been losing to the S&P for the last 5 days.
@Rock: Well, maybe that move is done then? For now, anyway?
ReplyDeleteI think '12 will likely be even crazier. Election year and all.
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteYou may be right. After all, we've topped our trading range so now is really not the time to enter. Maybe the Europeans did enter earlier, because now the volume's so light, it's easier to keep prices up there. Just looking at DIA, the volume's been going down for 6 days, and the price is going up.
One of my trainers taught me that when the price goes up and the volume goes down, that's a sign to sell or go short, because the price isn't justified. I don't know, I'm just sayin'.
Also, Bloomberg said that since the ECB isn't printing Euros to deflate themselves out of this problem, the Euro is holding its value. If the Euro goes down, the Bucky goes up, and the market typically declines. I wonder, if the Europeans have invested in our market already, this is why they don't want the Euro to devalue, but would rather devalue the debt.
On another note, this Penn State story is truly vile and disgusting on many levels. The arrogance by those in power everywhere is simply breathtaking.
ReplyDeleteManny - I haven't been following that, was the guy in question married and a right wing nutjob? ;-)
ReplyDeleteBerlusconi very close to retiring according to this. . .
ReplyDeleteNow watch the market explode 250 points up.
http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/11/live-blog-eurozone-crisis-3/#axzz1d8rrP4wr
resigning I meant
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDelete"Italy's Berlusconi Pledges To Resign After 2012 Budget Bill ApprovedLast update: 11/8/2011 2:21:21
PMROME (Dow Jones)--Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised to the country's head of state, Giorgio Napolitano, that he will resign after the 2012 budget bill is approved, a statement by Italy's presidential office said."
SKF started dropping at exactly 1:21, precisely to the minute 1 hour before the news hit.
You might think somebody got early warning? By exactly 1 hour? Hmmmmmm......let me think......
Thor (2:15) - It must be all that Frigid 50 degree weather you are having over there that is making you mis-type like that.
ReplyDeleteMaybe you need some mittens :)
Mangy Mutt
Not sure about that, Thor, but, as usual, the cover up nearly as bad as (or worse than) the crimes themselves. The insitutional arrogance by those in power is just out of control. Apparently it's nobody's responsibility to stop predatory behavior in its tracks, on anyone else.
ReplyDelete@All:
ReplyDeleteI updated the post above with a 3LB chart which is interesting. Refresh your browser and have a look.
Interesting indicator, Rock!
ReplyDeleteGreat NC article on exactly what is wrong with Italy.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/questioning-italys-solvency-means-ecb-intervention.html
Mutt - BRRRRRR! :-) It's at least warmed up to close to 70 today!
Here we go again with this WMD meme, only this time in Iran. History repeating itself? An attack in Iran is inevitable, no? Just a matter of time. Could take a while, but I'm guessing it happens at some point in the next presidential term, but the arguments start percolating next year during the eleetion season. What a bunch of dopes we are for believing anything that our "leaders" say at this point.
ReplyDeleteAfter all, we are supposedly getting out of Iraq but increasing our presence in the Persian Gulf. For what, if not another war? With Iran, most likely?
ReplyDeleteManny - I worry about that. Don't think it would be a cake walk for us either, even if it's just an air campaign. Iran can do a lot of damage to our supply of oil from the ME fairly easily. I'd bet money that Israel acts on their own though. Netanyahu has always struck me as far more aggressive than he needs to be.
ReplyDeleteI agree, Thor. That one has the potential to be a bloodbath. And then I wonder if other powers ultimately get involved leading to WWIII?
ReplyDeleteWhat a web we've sown with our imperialistic tendencies. Our policies all coming home to roost. No wonder we're so reviled around the world.
True, but once Israel goes out on its own, we'll be forced to jump in.
ReplyDeleteYou don't suppose when this war starts, all sovereign debt held by "foreign banks" will be forgiven, do you? Except of course for the losers who will have to pay reparations.
ReplyDeleteSee para. 2:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2023140,00.html
Anyway, that's for sure one way out of this debt crisis. Simply proclaim the debt doesn't exist anymore.
Bingo Rock. Exactly what I was thinking.
ReplyDeleteI proclaim the phone bill doesn't exist.
ReplyDeleteI am proclaim the line at the grocery store doesn't exist, nor do the tellers.
I proclaim I don't have to pay taxes any more.
BUT OFFICER!!!! A guy on the internet named Rock said it was ok to just proclaim things the way we want them to be, so I procliam you should not arrest me and instead wash my car.
Hey Rock I like this fantasy land.
Laaaaa....laaaaaa...laaaaa.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYou can't believe everything you read on the internet, buddy.
We got another one. Another body parts ring goes down. International, of course. We can't "observe" US citizens on the internet.
ReplyDeleteGlobalization has its advantages.
Good link from BR's
ReplyDeletehttp://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/11/06/deja-vu-all-over-again/
@Thor
ReplyDeleteBR was on bloomberg today. I had a conference call at exactly that moment and couldn't get his info.
Work really gets in the way. Why can't I get out of this gig?
Interesting vote results in OH and Miss tonight.
ReplyDeleteNice elections today, all over the country. And the author of the Arizona immigration law was thrown out in a recall as well.
ReplyDeleteManny - Maine and Arizona as well. I think the country realizes now what the Tea Baggers are really up to and who really controls their "message"
ReplyDeleteThe Social Graph is Neither
ReplyDeleteLets see if we get a selloff today. With the start around 1248, the daily SPY is starting to form an "M" with the right side lower than the left.
ReplyDeleteThat's a clue for me to think we may be on the downside, headed back to 1080.
If we do go down, I'm not looking for 1080, there's weak support around 1220. But 1080 would be good.
Rule 48 in place this AM. They may delay the open to be sure volatility doesn't get in the way.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm. What does this say about the HFT's?
TRINs up around 4. wow! It dipped down to 2 for a couple of minutes, but it's slope is positive again.
ReplyDeleteThe charts aren't behaving the way I think they should this AM. With the TRIN so high, and the TICK negative 200, I would have expected the volatility to be on the rise.
It's not.I wonder why.
Yikes. Here we go again. This is getting beyond ridiculous. Shades of '08. Can we at least agree now that most of them have no clue what to do now?
ReplyDeleteIt's all going to end in tears again, but possibly violence this time. The elites and bankers had better have some damn good security at their diposal.
Must...save....banking...elite...at...all...costs.
ReplyDeleteSomeone needs to make a satirical film on this - call it "The Attack of the Zombie Bankers".
Speaking of such.
ReplyDeleteThor last year you got me hooked on "The Walking Dead"
Have you been watching it this year?
And if so
What is your take?
Mangy Mutt
Morning guys! This is a good (albeit long) article.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109?print=true
Mutt - yes, I've been watching it this year, loved the first season, they fired the director who did all that though and I think the story is getting a little stale now.
If you REALLY want to see a great show, watch American Horror Story. AMAZING
You guys wanna see something funny? look at last week's post, and see in the first chart the blue line labeled "Resistance" and see exactly where we stopped on the VXX today.
ReplyDeleteamazing.
So, do charts work, or what?
@Mannwich:
ReplyDelete10 yr bond auction came off with demand up, but only slightly. 2% yield, so that may be why--maybe they want 6% like they can get with Italy's bonds?
:-)
Tonight I expect a big selloff in the market when Italy can't get buyers. I may try a 1 position short at the close, just for fun.
A market that goes up fast on good news and down slowly on bad news is one short market!
Thor - One of the guys I work with was also a big fan of the show last year so he and I talk about it every week and have come to the same conclusion.
ReplyDeleteIt is going now where pretty fast, each week they have some major conflict, but they never resolve the old conflict and everything is starting to melt into a big blurry blob, kind of like "Lost" did a few years back.
I plan on finishing this season, but if next season starts out like this one, I will find better things to do with my time.
Mutt
Rock - I believe in watching patterns develop and a pattern is nothing more then a chart, so heck yea I believe charts are a good tool.
ReplyDeleteBut I kind of have to question how accurate the charts are and by accurate I mean they seem too precise.
Just like your last weeks chart.
I have also seen several occasions where the market hits a certain "Resistance" point and goes in the opposite direction.
Does this mean there are so many people watching and waiting for these points to develop and even worser are the HFT machines programmed to take advantage of these points that the markets are actually being effected by them.
If that is the case, it would seem when/if things ever broke down a very wild ride would ensue.
Mangy Mutt
Some real gems in that Rolling Stone article, Thor. Are people finally (albeit still way too slowly) getting the picture now? Maybe?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-the-gop-became-the-party-of-the-rich-20111109?print=true
Holy market tanking. Shades of late '08/early '09.
ReplyDeleteI think the Euro is toast, my friends. Now my question is, what will be the fallout?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/09/france-germany-eurozone-european-union_n_1084314.html
ReplyDeletea break-up of the Euro into a smaller club?
Manny - WOW ! down 425 . . . . so much for my "up 250" call for yesterday
ReplyDeleteWhen Thor says right, turn left, when Thor says down go up..... That should pretty much explain his (2:26)
ReplyDelete:)
Mangy Mutt
Trading the trend is good. Recognizing the trend change can be difficult, and risky.
ReplyDeleteAs they say, "sometimes you make the beast with 2 backs, and sometimes the beast makes you."
I have to go into the office for a meeting, so I won't be able to put my short order in at the close. Oh well.
@Mutt: Yes. HFT algos definitely know about support and resistance points, and based on lots of stuff including bid/ask, sizes of orders, where the orders came from, etc etc, and knows how to hunt around these points to find how strong the support/resistance is, they can definitely cause what we just saw about the mad dash for the doors.
@Mannwich:
So who will be kicked out of the Eurozone? How 'bout Germany? They have the most to gain.
Bloomberg just said Papandreou just went on TV to say grease has a new government. He just didn't say who it was.
ReplyDeleteI could take lessons in comedy from that guy!
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/world/europe/greek-squabbles-prolong-selection-of-new-leader.html
ReplyDeleteForgot the link, sorry....
@Rock: The coming of the Fourth Reich?
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that Merkle is the one that seems to support a country leaving the EU. I haven't read the treaty which established the EU, but my limited understanding is that there is currently no documented method for any country to leave the EU. So, let's just suppose France, and Germany, and all the EU nations agree independently to kick out grease. I'm no attorney, but I would bet dollars to donuts that would support the position that the treaty has been dissolved.
ReplyDeleteThen, Germany's out.
Germany could simply buy Greece and Italy. If they liked salads with feta and pizza.
Well, actually, greek pizzas are better than italian, but you get my drift.
I just have to say this.
ReplyDeleteHow the fuck was Herman Cain ever a Federal Reserve President?
Rock - I've been hearing on the news today talk of German and France wanting to eject some of the weaker member of the Euro, or to only keep a smaller, core group.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteA year or so ago, before the EU was in "crisis", that is, before the media started whistle blowing, that it would be to the benefit of countries in debt trouble to get out of the Eurozone, create their own currency, and inflate themselves out of trouble. They can't individually inflate the Euro, and the ECB won't print euros the way the Fed is doing.
However, the reality is that for one country to withdraw, or be kicked out, there is a huge overhead to pay. A new treaty is needed, and it's not likely you'll see one because of the nationalism and protectionism we see lately.
Also, the reality of the huge number of euro-based agreements and accounts in multi-national banks makes the dissolution a very very difficult thing to do. And since it's so difficult, the unintended consequences will be many, and perhaps more damaging than keeping the union together.
I think talk of ejection of one or a few countries is just that: talk.
"Will see".
So, did I read this right. A former European central banker as PM now? Might as well make it official. Bankers run the world anyway. Blanky for prez?
ReplyDeleteI gather his job is to play ball with the EU and ram austerity down the Greeple's (Greek Sheeple's) throats?
ReplyDeleteAAPL getting smoked today. Not good.
ReplyDeleteManny, I think the official term for Bankers running the countries is "technocrats". None of this will end well. They should just rip off the bandage and be done with it once and for all.
ReplyDeleteGreeks get to cuz their debt by half? That'll be fine until two years from now when it's right back where it was before and we do this all over again.
Rock - I'll bet you a quarter that when this is all said and done, the Euro is either scrapped, or modified to be a much smaller club. ;-)
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteSorry for my poor english on that 9:10. The first sentence was supposed to say:
"A year or so ago, before the EU was in "crisis", that is, before the media started whistle blowing, I saw some talking head say that it would be to the benefit of countries in debt trouble to get out of the Eurozone, create their own currency, and inflate themselves out of trouble."
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll take that bet. Again, because of my lack of long term memory, you'll have to remind me when all this is said and done.......which by just kicking the can down the road is likely to need long-term memory capability......
Mike Tyson as Herman Cain. Have to watch this. Utterly brilliant.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watchv=usNhDwc7azg&feature=colike
@Thor: Or, another term, neo-feudalism. Guess who the serfs are.
ReplyDeleteThe scary thing about this whole euro deal is that governments are now in a position to tell a government how much money they get to run their country.
ReplyDeleteAs we saw, the perhaps biggest debt risk, Italy, sold plenty of bonds and is able to continue on continuing on. They haven't been told by the governments (yet) how to run their government. But it will come.
Can you imagine when Canada, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panema all tell the US how many Dolesos we can spend on Defense when China spends so much less than us?
It's financial warfare, Rock. Don't even need to fire a shot or use military. Yet. Michael Hudson has been talking and writing about it for a while now.
ReplyDeleteManny . . . who's Michael Hudson? I want to read! :P
ReplyDeleteROck . . .
ReplyDeleteEuropean debt crisis spiralling out of control
Reports that Germany and France have begun talks to break up the eurozone amid fears that Italy will be too big to rescue
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/09/european-debt-crisis-eurozone-breakup
what say ye? :-)
You've read him, I think. He posts a lot at Naked Capitalism. Google him.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteDead link in your 11:50. Did you mean
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usNhDwc7azg
Yes, that's right, Rock. I got a good chuckle out of it. Thor - watch it!
ReplyDeleteHAHAHAHAH, that was hilarious! Tyson is so funny!
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteROck says "nay!"
But I've been wrong before.
Here's a pretty good interview of Michael Hudson, from his website:
http://michael-hudson.com/2011/11/occupy-systemic-change/
I believe his summary to be accurate. There is no solution. Which is why the "SuperCommittee" hasn't come to any conclusions. Which is why the Euro will stay intact.
Making these changes does not provide a solution to our financial problems. I know I'm glad I'm not in politics, because I see no solution either.
Looking at the chart above, I wonder what will happen when the VXX gets to 44.50.
ReplyDeleteBTW, GLD is pulling back for anyone wanting to buy in. I don't know how far, but the last pullback Oct 14-19 pulled back 3.1%. That would make a pullback to 170.19 a possible buy-in, but the indicators are still very positive, so the pullback could be a little more than that.
Rock - I can see your point. Dissolution of the Euro would cause massive worldwide economic dislocation. I just wonder though, are they really stupid enough to just muddle along like they've been doing for the last three years? I mean, this has moved into the Euro's third largest economy now.
ReplyDeleteAlso, does anyone really think the French are really any better shape? Wolfie, if you're around you might know. . .
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteFrench bond yields are up. The bond vigilantes are going to smack them as well.
S&P sent an email to some subscribers saying they cut French bonds, but an hour or two later, they sent another that said "oops, no change. Sorry. do over". That didn't help matters much.
Do I think they want to muddle along? Yes. I think they want to cut spending (austerity) and get people to pay taxes to reduce the level of sovereign debt. Will take years, maybe 10s of years.
@Thor: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/s-p-roils-global-markets-with-erroneous-message-on-french-rating-downgrade.html
ReplyDelete:p
While that was a mistake, there are growing fears out there that France may lose its perfect rating.
According to "experts", financial markets may already be pricing this by asking record yields on French 10-year bonds.(up to 3.4%)
Rock beat me to it.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, we need to lower our deficit to 4.5% of the GDP by 2012, and 3% of the GDP by 2013. And some say it means much bigger cuts and taxes than what's currently being done.
All in all, we are in a slighlty better condition, but the dominoes seem to be getting closer to us each day ...
@WolfStreet:
ReplyDeleteYou add credibility. Just because Rock says it, doesn't make it so. But when Bloomberg says it, well, that carries some weight.
Keep me honest, please. I mean, I already said MFGlobal was levereged 80:1.
Big volume yesterday on the selloff. 1.1B yesterday, 800M today.
ReplyDeleteSee the 60 minute SPY chart, and look at the volume trail off towards the end of the day. Also notice the pennant. Lots of energy being built up here, as folks move their stops closer and closer together, and their buy orders coming in closer behind the stops.
One good headline, and look out above! One bad headline, well, bye-bye in free fall.
With the light volume, it's easier to move the market up, so I expect a move up to the end of the day. If I see that move up, I will stay long one position overnight.
Carol Massar seems to be gone from Bloomberg. Sigh. She had a couple nice attributes....
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to think the end game is complete uprising against the global financial system. It's basically a financial war at this point of them vs. everyone else. Buckle up.
ReplyDeleteI liked her too, Rock. Guess she isn't young and pretty enough for the suits at Bloomie. Really pathetic if you ask me.
Manny - same here, I think it's going to be long and drawn out, more like the Vietnam War protest movement, can you imagine the chaos if it all comes to a head at once?
ReplyDeleteSino-Forest Confirms Probe by Royal Canadian Mounted Police
ReplyDeleteLooking at GLD, it seemed to have what kind of looks like a pullback, and is on the rise again. I don't call it an "official pullback" because the stochastics didn't hit oversold status, but it went down to beyond my 3% pullback target. Yesterday's low was 168.83, and the high was 175.
ReplyDeleteSo I guess it's formed its next "W" and I will be adding to my position at 175+
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteYou think Sgt. Preston is involved? He was my hero.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0182633/
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteI would have been proud to take her to the Senior Prom. For sure.
I've been playing DIG for awhile now. I like it's volatility, and oil has definitely been moving up, so it's had a pretty good basis for support.
ReplyDeleteNow, as oil is almost at the $100/barrel, I will be setting stops pretty close, and will start a pullback. Recently it's had peaks at 49, then at 48, and now is just over 47. I stayed in overnight, but after moving my stop up to 86, was stopped out.
The volume is on the rise (on the 60 minute chart), relative strength is over 2%, and MACD is on the rise, all very positive signs so it may still go higher.
I will re-enter long on a pullback/setup.
"Will see".
More austerity deals = market ramp. Yee-haw....
ReplyDeleteLet the good times roll.
I'm a DIG-renter as well, Rock. Not bad.
ReplyDeleteSo in an hour, it will be 11/11/11 11:11.
ReplyDeleteTime to buy.
AAPL STILL weak. Where's greg?
ReplyDeleteWas our Apple store here yesterday afternoon wand was jammed, as usual.
The market (and gamblers, I mean, bankers) LOVES austerity deals. For a few days anyway, until reality sets in. Fun times.
ReplyDeleteGreat post here about the financial warfare we discussed yesterday that's going on in Iceland (still) and globall. It's bankers and and top .01% vs. everyone else. In their eyes, WE must sacrifice everything, while they give up nothing. The arrogance is breathtaking. I'd say go long guillotines, but maybe not just yet. Takes a while (and much more suffering) for people to get truly pissed off en masse.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/iceland%e2%80%99s-new-bank-disaster.html
Remember what happened in Russia.
ReplyDeleteThey took everything from the rich, gave it to the poor (and ruling class) who squandered it and left nothing for anybody.
Time to watch Dr. Zhivago again. Besides, I like whats her name's voice.
@Manny....Apple's fine. Usually down 4 weeks after earnings.
ReplyDeleteAh! DIG is pulling back! Hope it gets below 46.60. If it does, I'm back in.
ReplyDeleteAnd whew, the Euro's going back up. UUP is down 1.15%.
Trin's .55, very very bullish.
All's good with the world!
@Greg:
ReplyDeletewhat do you think should be a re-entry point? Looking at the chart, pressure's still on the downside. There's really no support until around 378, where there is big support.
I'm thinking maybe 381, 1% above the big support point. I missed it today.
So do you remember the BP oil rig disaster, and what happened to the stock after that one? Well, we may have the next one.
ReplyDeletehttp://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-11/gm-volt-battery-fire-is-said-to-prompt-u-s-probe-into-electric-car-safety?category=%2F
Remember the recall of the notebooks when the Lion batteries were catching fire? The reason was because the batteries were mounted right near the processor, and I forget whose application used the processor so that it ran hotter then normal, causing the batteries ambient temp to get too hot without any heat sink.
Maybe some cars are at risk. The Prius has a special cooling system for the battery, with a vent by the rear passenger's ear. Don't go to sleep in the back of a prius and let your head nod over to cover that vent!
@Rock....any time now I think. The January $400-$420 call spread at $8.00 is a good bet for a double, or if you're just buying shares, then anytime is good.
ReplyDeletelate morning to you all!
ReplyDeleteThe fact that BR and others even have to keep refuting this crap THREE years later is beyond absurd, but that's life trying to battle the hard-headed idealogues on the right. Facts don't matter to them. Only ideology.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/government-blameless-in-bubblebustbailouts/#comments
Manny - What's sad is that there are still so many people in his comments section who defend this BS!
ReplyDelete@Greg
ReplyDeleteI agree. Too bad I mist that 381 Got 382.80 for an entry.
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteIt is sad how people will twist your words into something to make them feel justified.
Anyway, I think there is enough blame to go around. But I think the blame lies mainly in basic human greed. Now I think we've had enough blame and simply need some positive efforts to bring the economy back to life.
I read something, somewhere, that (maybe it was) the Cisco CEO said if they were allowed to bring their billions back from overseas, they would start to innovate again.
In my line of work, I do need another layer of innovation. Especially as people get more creative in the abuse of technology, for Greed's sake.
Thinking about it, maybe I'll substitute "for greed's sake" for "for God's sake". It could fit.
(the other substitute I use all the time is "fat" for "cream". Ice Fat. Fat Cheese. Sour Fat. like that).
@Rock(9:51)
ReplyDeleteMy brother is an Inspector with the RCMP.
ICan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteDoes he know Sergeant Preston?
TRP's Keystone XL pipeline is delayed yet again.
ReplyDeleteBig story in Canada. Over 1000 comments on a story in the Globe and Mail.
Canadians are saying, if the U.S. doesn't want our oil then ship it China or refine it at home.
ICan
@Rock(3:27)
ReplyDeleteDon't know. I'll ask, next time I talk to him.
ICan
11-11-11
ReplyDeleteRememberence day in Canada. Those who sacrificed their lives for our freedom are true Heros!
ICan
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteYou remember Gomer Pyle -Sergeant. The reruns on t.v. in the 1980s.
ICan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI heard the pipeline story yesterday. Seems Obama doesn't have the cahonies to make a decision to piss off the environmentalists or piss off big oil until after the election.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI never liked gomer very much, maybe because I worked on a farm in the summers in Illinois, and there were a lot of them around.....but that man can sing. I saw him at a theater in the round, and he has an unbelievable voice.
re ICan,3:42PM: remembrance day, ditto. Cheers to them.:)
ReplyDeleteIran, after Iraq?
ReplyDelete"Defense minister says he will speak with Israel about reported plans to attack Iran". www.theglobeandmail.com
Comments are worth reading too.
ICan