Among many wrong TA calls, one fundamental forecast I've got right so far is the growth in private security businesses, due to the unveiling crisis. Easy cynical call? right... I hate it too!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,796733,00.html "With a struggling economy, massive austerity measures and increasing uncertainty, crime is surging in parts of Greece. This has sparked a boom for some in the private security business. Greek officials are considering plans to make the streets of Athens safer."
"JC PENNEY SWINGS TO LOSS AMID LOWER SALES J.C. Penney swings to a 3Q loss of $143 million, or 67c a share, from a year-earlier profit of $44 million, or 19c a share, due to higher restructuring and management-transition-related charges and lower sales. "
The other day the Bloomberg talking heads were saying that everything's good for a spending holiday season.
I think it's the TIFs and COHs that will reap the benefits, again. the trend on RTH is positive, with a 2% better than S&P, TIF just had a pullback, TIF and COH just had a minipullback, and the slope of the relative strengths are positive.
Looks good, if RTH continues to rise, but I'm worried about the JCP report quoted above. It's the "and lower sales" that worries me.
Rock - I am not sure how the talking heads can say everything's good for a spending holiday season.
When the prices of food, gas and other things we need continue to climb, it seems like that takes money out of pockets for the stuff we want and well 95% of Christmas shopping is all about what we want.
Along with higher prices, we also have high unemployment, with people coming off the 99 week extended unemplyement, so those people get no assistance.
Plus we have a multitude of college graduates who owe tons of money, but have not means of getting a job and those who are fortunated enuff to find a job, they usually get paid at a lower rate.
Yup everything is set up for a stellar holiday spending season.
Yep yep. I think we have cheerleaders, instead of thinking commentators. Most of the market right now is confidence. Look at the divergences; who's up today? LOW, AMZN, ANF, ANN, COST, DDS etc.
How many sectors I follow are up? none.
Except for today, down days are usually big volume. Up days are light. An up day is a "hope day", that is people are buing on hope. Down days are "reality" days.
Now, who's gonna win? Hope in the short term and reality in the long term?
Will there be enough hope to carry us through until reality changes? I doubt it. But, I lose my opinion as soon as I put a trade on.
Rock - I read your above comment about light volume this morning and it seemed strange that the market was down, cuz if memory was serving correctly that was what I thought was happening over the past couple few months....Light volume up we went....Heavy volume down we went.
Those poor HFT machines must be all overworked and stuff.
Meanwhile, Cain weighs in on how he would have handled Libya. Sort of. You can't make this shit up anymore that is the three-ring circus called the GOP.
Here's something from the LATimes I thought was interesting. I've been going on about this for a couple of years now. The longer term changes that will result from the Great Recession.
Rock – if you are serious about marrying your lady friend from Singapore you may want to consider doing it sooner than later as immigration laws are starting to change.
My wife does immigration papers for people (Mostly Mexican) and about a yearish ago, she started noticing the paper work was getting harder to file. Paper work would get kicked back on minor technicalities or they would claim the packet was incomplete – My wife could tell you a lot more about it than I could though.
Anyway if you are serious about it, the sooner you start the process the better. Mangy Mutt
I have not had a chance to read Thor’s Article yet, but figured I would toss my two pennies in. The cost of picking fruit sky rocketed this year, some farmers where paying $27 a bin plus an end of harvest bonus, this I know because I have heard it straight from the people picking the fruit.
To put into perspective what $27 a bin is – All things being equal (weather, time of day, size of apples, working conditions) an older, slow moving white guy like me could easily pick a bin in an hour and 15 minutes that is 6 bins in an 8 hour day 6 x 27 = 162. Of course a younger more motivated picker could easily pick more. I also read an article on how some farmer’s were paying up to $22 an hour to have local prisoners (Yes Prisoners) come over and pick the fruit, well somehow these poor deprived prisoners were only able to pick 3-4 bins a day,
The question I have is where are all the struggling college students, they should be able to pick a couple three bins before class started.
Because California grows a wider variety of veggies and they had/have a higher influx of illegals I am sure they will be harder hit, but I know up this way, trees need to be pruned, thinned and sprayed and fields need to be fertilized and tilled.
Then in late May early June some crops start to come it, there is a lot of work to get done and those willing to do the work are getting fewer and fewer, this could get very interesting in the next couple few years.
The last few days have not been good for ol' Rock. Looking at the history, every setup that used to work has failed.
As you all know, I enter small and add on confirmation. Well, there's been no confirmation, and the setups almost immediately reverse, and my stop limit is hit. So the losses have been small, but it's quite odd that absolutely 0 of the setups haven't gone the way the charts expect.
It's almost as if "they" are out to get me.
Looking at the SPY, the last 5 hours have traded almost flat. Hard to make money at flat.
So I'm changing my trading philosophy for this flat. I am setting buy long orders at 126 and sell short orders at 124.75. We'll see if we get volatility greater than that.
I watched that video. Yes he fumbled. But in the end he made sense. I guess he was caught off-guard. If you followed events in Libya, as I did, he made sense. I guess he was saying he didn't want Libya to be another Iraq, too many factions(including Islamists) fighting for power.
Rock - On one hand I am sorry to hear nothing is working for you on the other hand I am am somewhat relieved as it is not just me.
I do not remember the exact date, but sometime about a month ago I stopped trading because all my patternes (Charts) broke down and I have been searching for something ever since and it seems like as soon as something starts to take shape it vanishes into the fog of flat trading.
And with that being said (The fact that I do not have a stinking clue) I will make a prediction on how things seem to currently be setting up.
We will finish the day about 0.83% up on the DOW and S&P if that happens we should have a huge day up tomorrow, but after that is anyones guess.
And if that does not happen, then something else will
@Rock: Me-thinks it's VERY valid. I have someone close to me in that biz and they are wobbling big time again. Looking pretty dire. Of course, much of that could be due to their mismanagement and hopes to make the quick score (prettying up the balance sheet and selling off to a sucker), but I'm guessing it's a combo of both.
@ICan: Mr. Cain is just another in a long line arrogant, narcissists who make snappy commments about things that get the right all fired up, but he too will fade away over time as he gets exposed as someone who's clearly not fit to lead this country, much less a bad pizza chain (of course you could say that about nearly all of our current "leaders", but).....
The inmates are running the assylum. I wonder if this is how it played out in ancient Rome too?
One other thing I heard on Bloomberg: the fund managers are bailing out of the banks and the Phizers (their last quarter filings).
And Buffett went into IBM. High quality, low volatility.
Interesting. I also heard on Bloomberg one baking expert saying our banks have very very little exposure to European sovereign debt, but the bank stocks are tracking Euro bank stocks.
Doesn't add up. Why would you get out of banks if there's no exposure to Euro sov debt? Volker rule overhang? Can't (wont) lend?
@Rock: I think the denials mean there's LOTS of exposure to Euro sov debt? It's almost like when the bank execs come out and say there's no problem. If they have to say it, it means there's not only a "problem", but a damn big one. See Bear, Lehman, Merrill, etc.
It seems that Obama has already determined there's no "stink" there to be found, or at least HE doesn't want to be the courageous (or unlucky, depending on one's perspective) one to find it.
Rock (12:41) - Congradulations on being able to put a couple bucks in your pocket.
But it is still early to say whether my 0.83% call was good or not, but do keep in mind the call was made when both the DOW and S&P were down over. 0.40%
Aw fooey. I typed a cool comment, and I hit the wrong key and it was eaten. Should learn to compose in notepad then cut-paste to here.
anyway, it goes like this:
Dell missed top line and bottom line. PC sales are down. Whose only or main business is to supply PC components? This is our short list during earnings.
I thought we could use a new thread.
ReplyDeleteAmong many wrong TA calls, one fundamental forecast I've got right so far is the growth in private security businesses, due to the unveiling crisis. Easy cynical call? right... I hate it too!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,796733,00.html
"With a struggling economy, massive austerity measures and increasing uncertainty, crime is surging in parts of Greece. This has sparked a boom for some in the private security business. Greek officials are considering plans to make the streets of Athens safer."
No EOY rally ? too bad..
ReplyDelete@Wolfstreet:
ReplyDeleteVery light day. Even lighter than Friday, which was the lightest day in a long time.
NYSE STOCK TRANSACTIONS AT NOONLast update: 11/14/2011 12:06:53 PM
Today Prev Day
11:34-NOON 35,100,000 32,210,000
9:30-NOON 251,520,000 282,550,000
Today, a guy could get hurt by the HVT's. Must watch very very carefully.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteFrom the DJ newswire:
"JC PENNEY SWINGS TO LOSS AMID LOWER SALES
J.C. Penney swings to a 3Q loss of $143 million, or 67c a share, from a year-earlier profit of $44 million, or 19c a share, due to higher restructuring and management-transition-related charges and lower sales. "
The other day the Bloomberg talking heads were saying that everything's good for a spending holiday season.
I think it's the TIFs and COHs that will reap the benefits, again. the trend on RTH is positive, with a 2% better than S&P, TIF just had a pullback, TIF and COH just had a minipullback, and the slope of the relative strengths are positive.
Looks good, if RTH continues to rise, but I'm worried about the JCP report quoted above. It's the "and lower sales" that worries me.
Rock - I am not sure how the talking heads can say everything's good for a spending holiday season.
ReplyDeleteWhen the prices of food, gas and other things we need continue to climb, it seems like that takes money out of pockets for the stuff we want and well 95% of Christmas shopping is all about what we want.
Along with higher prices, we also have high unemployment, with people coming off the 99 week extended unemplyement, so those people get no assistance.
Plus we have a multitude of college graduates who owe tons of money, but have not means of getting a job and those who are fortunated enuff to find a job, they usually get paid at a lower rate.
Yup everything is set up for a stellar holiday spending season.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYep yep. I think we have cheerleaders, instead of thinking commentators. Most of the market right now is confidence. Look at the divergences; who's up today? LOW, AMZN, ANF, ANN, COST, DDS etc.
How many sectors I follow are up? none.
Except for today, down days are usually big volume. Up days are light. An up day is a "hope day", that is people are buing on hope. Down days are "reality" days.
Now, who's gonna win? Hope in the short term and reality in the long term?
Will there be enough hope to carry us through until reality changes? I doubt it. But, I lose my opinion as soon as I put a trade on.
Rock - I read your above comment about light volume this morning and it seemed strange that the market was down, cuz if memory was serving correctly that was what I thought was happening over the past couple few months....Light volume up we went....Heavy volume down we went.
ReplyDeleteThose poor HFT machines must be all overworked and stuff.
Mutt
Meanwhile, Cain weighs in on how he would have handled Libya. Sort of. You can't make this shit up anymore that is the three-ring circus called the GOP.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/cain-talks-libya-pulls-perry
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteAfter that, if Cain is the nominee, I think I'd have to vote for Abel.
Anybody else.
Whoa what a busy day.
ReplyDeleteHere's something from the LATimes I thought was interesting. I've been going on about this for a couple of years now. The longer term changes that will result from the Great Recession.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-migration-20111115,0,6585941.story
mmigration from Mexico in fast retreat, data show
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYeah, I know. I haven't been able to find a decent gardner or housekeeper.
I've been thinking about marrying my housekeeper from Singapore to get her over here......
Rock – if you are serious about marrying your lady friend from Singapore you may want to consider doing it sooner than later as immigration laws are starting to change.
ReplyDeleteMy wife does immigration papers for people (Mostly Mexican) and about a yearish ago, she started noticing the paper work was getting harder to file. Paper work would get kicked back on minor technicalities or they would claim the packet was incomplete – My wife could tell you a lot more about it than I could though.
Anyway if you are serious about it, the sooner you start the process the better.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteWell, she *is* hot.....No, cooler minds must prevail.
@ICan:
Well, so much for my concern about retail numbers, eh?
I have not had a chance to read Thor’s Article yet, but figured I would toss my two pennies in.
ReplyDeleteThe cost of picking fruit sky rocketed this year, some farmers where paying $27 a bin plus an end of harvest bonus, this I know because I have heard it straight from the people picking the fruit.
To put into perspective what $27 a bin is – All things being equal (weather, time of day, size of apples, working conditions) an older, slow moving white guy like me could easily pick a bin in an hour and 15 minutes that is 6 bins in an 8 hour day 6 x 27 = 162. Of course a younger more motivated picker could easily pick more.
I also read an article on how some farmer’s were paying up to $22 an hour to have local prisoners (Yes Prisoners) come over and pick the fruit, well somehow these poor deprived prisoners were only able to pick 3-4 bins a day,
The question I have is where are all the struggling college students, they should be able to pick a couple three bins before class started.
Because California grows a wider variety of veggies and they had/have a higher influx of illegals I am sure they will be harder hit, but I know up this way, trees need to be pruned, thinned and sprayed and fields need to be fertilized and tilled.
Then in late May early June some crops start to come it, there is a lot of work to get done and those willing to do the work are getting fewer and fewer, this could get very interesting in the next couple few years.
Mangy Mutt
Rock - There is nothing wrong with having a hot wife.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteAt my age there is.
But you can die with a smile on your face :)
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Rock,
ReplyDelete"U.S. retail spending climbs"-marketwatch
ICAIN
@Mutt: I already will. Oh Wow! Oh Wow! iGod!!!!
ReplyDeleteGeneral comment:
The last few days have not been good for ol' Rock. Looking at the history, every setup that used to work has failed.
As you all know, I enter small and add on confirmation. Well, there's been no confirmation, and the setups almost immediately reverse, and my stop limit is hit. So the losses have been small, but it's quite odd that absolutely 0 of the setups haven't gone the way the charts expect.
It's almost as if "they" are out to get me.
Looking at the SPY, the last 5 hours have traded almost flat. Hard to make money at flat.
So I'm changing my trading philosophy for this flat. I am setting buy long orders at 126 and sell short orders at 124.75. We'll see if we get volatility greater than that.
@Manny
ReplyDeleteRe Cain.
I watched that video. Yes he fumbled. But in the end he made sense. I guess he was caught off-guard. If you followed events in Libya, as I did, he made sense. I guess he was saying he didn't want Libya to be another Iraq, too many factions(including Islamists) fighting for power.
ICan
Rock - On one hand I am sorry to hear nothing is working for you on the other hand I am am somewhat relieved as it is not just me.
ReplyDeleteI do not remember the exact date, but sometime about a month ago I stopped trading because all my patternes (Charts) broke down and I have been searching for something ever since and it seems like as soon as something starts to take shape it vanishes into the fog of flat trading.
And with that being said (The fact that I do not have a stinking clue) I will make a prediction on how things seem to currently be setting up.
We will finish the day about 0.83% up on the DOW and S&P if that happens we should have a huge day up tomorrow, but after that is anyones guess.
And if that does not happen, then something else will
Mangy Mutt
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteOops, WalMart missed earnings. Staples lowered forcasted revenue expectations.
Maybe my retail concern is valid?
@Rock: Me-thinks it's VERY valid. I have someone close to me in that biz and they are wobbling big time again. Looking pretty dire. Of course, much of that could be due to their mismanagement and hopes to make the quick score (prettying up the balance sheet and selling off to a sucker), but I'm guessing it's a combo of both.
ReplyDelete@ICan: Mr. Cain is just another in a long line arrogant, narcissists who make snappy commments about things that get the right all fired up, but he too will fade away over time as he gets exposed as someone who's clearly not fit to lead this country, much less a bad pizza chain (of course you could say that about nearly all of our current "leaders", but).....
The inmates are running the assylum. I wonder if this is how it played out in ancient Rome too?
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteLooks like you made a pretty good call. And I made some money (finally!). I popped out here after my 1% profit.
"nibble nibble, little mouse....who's that nibbling at my house?"
Things starting to reach a boiling point, me-thinks. Will it last?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/nyregion/patience-grows-thin-for-banks-foreclosure-excuses.html?src=rechp
One other thing I heard on Bloomberg: the fund managers are bailing out of the banks and the Phizers (their last quarter filings).
ReplyDeleteAnd Buffett went into IBM. High quality, low volatility.
Interesting. I also heard on Bloomberg one baking expert saying our banks have very very little exposure to European sovereign debt, but the bank stocks are tracking Euro bank stocks.
Doesn't add up. Why would you get out of banks if there's no exposure to Euro sov debt? Volker rule overhang? Can't (wont) lend?
@Rock: I think the denials mean there's LOTS of exposure to Euro sov debt? It's almost like when the bank execs come out and say there's no problem. If they have to say it, it means there's not only a "problem", but a damn big one. See Bear, Lehman, Merrill, etc.
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteHmmmm..
I do love the line from your article "Like a man reaching into a barrel of dead fish, he found a great stink."
It seems that Obama has already determined there's no "stink" there to be found, or at least HE doesn't want to be the courageous (or unlucky, depending on one's perspective) one to find it.
ReplyDeleteA real nice cup-and-handle forming on the DIA 60 minute chart. Interesting. I can't see the volume, it's too low. But could be a triple-top soon.
ReplyDeleteRock (12:41) - Congradulations on being able to put a couple bucks in your pocket.
ReplyDeleteBut it is still early to say whether my 0.83% call was good or not, but do keep in mind the call was made when both the DOW and S&P were down over. 0.40%
Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteI got the SPY at 0.8. I know that's not a close, but it's "close" enought for me. Good insight.
But I'm out now, and nibbled a little VXX at 44.03. the VXX is *exactly* at the Support/Resistance line from my chart last week.
That's flatter than my first girlfriend!
Rock - Sorry to hear your first girlfriend could not sing, I am pretty flat and tone deaf too....
ReplyDeleteHuh????? WHAT????
Ohhhhhhhhhh Not flat in her singing....
My bad.
Mangy Mutt
Aw fooey. I typed a cool comment, and I hit the wrong key and it was eaten. Should learn to compose in notepad then cut-paste to here.
ReplyDeleteanyway, it goes like this:
Dell missed top line and bottom line. PC sales are down. Whose only or main business is to supply PC components? This is our short list during earnings.
Checkpoint CKP
Trend Micro (don't know ticker)
Symantec SYMC
nVidia NVDA
AMD AMD
Western Digital WDC
Phoenix Technologies (don't know ticker)
These are on my short list, and I think I'll play some shorts here just for fun. Just a little bit, no huge bet, because this is just gambling.
Anybody else got any suggestions?
Rock - Sadly at this point in time it seems like there is more luck then analysis going on.
ReplyDeleteKind of hard to say which one will be the better short, I will hack into a HFT this even to find out though.
Mutt