With my best Maxwell Smart voice...
"The old trick to mention what you said is my view as opposed to your view just to make me talk about my true view" aha...it was a good one. So I'm going to talk a bit.
Rock dude, you need to calm down. If you thought that we are in some kind of pissing contest …well, probably you need to read reality better, and find another buddy.
Again and for the last time:
1)I said Sep 2 that the market was going to be in an uptrend at least 10-14 months. And was going to look like a giant wedge with three peaks in it‘s trajectory.
This means that July-November 2011 is the time for an end. I mentioned that no big drops like 25%-30% during that period will occur.
Why you say that you are bullish opposite to my view?
2)For months was letting everybody know that April-May was my main target for a decent correction. As time draw near I mentioned the first week of May as the point where it should start falling.
A decent correction is a secondary trend and I mentioned that several times.
A secondary trend means that the primary goes the opposite way and is still current.
3)Three Tuesday's ago I mentioned that I expected the market to bottom Thursday 16 with a puke and or late Wednesday or early Friday, like a 3rd order prediction. The puke didn't come but as long as the market makes the bottom that day, Thursday 16, with or without a puke, is good enough to me . Planets don’t wait for me to decide if I feel satisfied with their performance, they don’t do recaps for me.
Anyone can take a chart of the s&p500 and see that June 16 is a bottom. The puke is a violent form of bottoming usually called pipe bottom, so the FORM that I expected didn’t come but that doesn’t imply that we didn’t made a bottom June 16 for anyone to see..
So in my quest for bringing unparalleled excellence to the readers I kept looking for that puke. And probably came in a weak manner June 22nd and 23rd again with that big drop. I wasn’t too sure Thursday 22nd but Friday23rd did it again without breaking the June 16 bottom, the 200 mov. avg. and showing a rounded not impulsive bottom plus the Greek theater.
All this with certain astrological factors made me go long SPY calls at 3:16 past Friday. So I don’t really know what are you saying that my view is, but I can assure you is wrong.
My objective is to bring to people 3-5 calls that are the salient ones along a year, as a way to help (in case I’m correct) them develop their plans. That’s all.
Regarding trades is hard to keep updating what I’m doing not commenting too often
So Rock if you mention my views again in your post…(suspense)they have to be accurate. Lol.
Dan
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The Herds Update
Time for the herd update from Rock.
As you know, I continually monitor ETF funds which are sector-focused to determine their relative performance to the S&P, and to attempt to determine if there is sector rotation going on. I call them "herds".
In addition to the ETF’s, I also draw channel trend lines for the stocks I follow in the various sectors. I look for an overview of the individual stock’s performance, and how it relates to or deviates from the market and herd indicator.
As a general comment, lately it seems the stocks I’m following are somewhat choppy. The research into the herd list supports this, the last 5-8 days are up-down-up-down days. A good way to make money is to identify a market trend, identify a sector trending with the market, and identify and trade in a stock trending with the market. As long as you’re monitoring the performance, then you ride the trend and get out or reverse your position when the market breaks trend, the sector breaks trend, and the stock breaks trend. This chop probably indicates a trend direction change, and is not an investment market.
Rock is always early. I said I think this week that the S&P weekly stochastics were on the bottom, as were the daily. This is the time to invest. This is the one time of the year you’ll make the most money. Well, over the last 3 weeks, the S&P has closed within 3 points, which says we’ve got some price stabilization. The Dow Transports are showing near all-time highs. Things are on the move. Early, but I’m full of bull again.
I saw a good pullback in AAPL, so I went long, and added over the last couple of days to a full position. I believe it to be undervalued. I think it’s time for that one to at least beta up and even beat the market.
We’re going into earnings season now. I look at the retail sector, and it’s pretty much holding steady. Holding steady means we’re likely to see like last earnings season, a significant number of outperforms. So I’m thinking the rally will likely come during the earnings season.
I know this is opposite to what Dastro thinks.
Looking at the media, the gloom and doom boys can’t see that solvent countries are going to do everything in their power to save the banks. Actually, the rich have the most to lose: If you’re holding dollar denominated securities and the dollar disappears, your securities can be used as wallpaper. So we’re going to save the rich.
Now let’s trade this one!
I went through the herd list, and found that many had broken their downchannel trend, such as XRT, IRET, $DJT, UCC. However, breaking their downchannel, and being positive relative to the S&P are different things. If their downchannel is so steep, breaking out may simply bring them to par with the S&P. Anyway, here’s the data:
0.03 BBH
0.02 XBI IBB XME XES
0.01 UTH ITB IGV XRT KOL UCC OIH SLX TAN
-0.01 GDX $BKX KRE KBE KIE
-0.02 KCE
-0.03 GLD
So if you’re investing in capital markets or gold, that’s down. Banks are suffering. People are getting out of that and getting into biotech, and metals again.
I will be going long in CENX into earnings. I believe in them more than AA but AA will report first and set the trend, for sure. That’s why I’ll get out of CENX before AA reports.
As you know, I continually monitor ETF funds which are sector-focused to determine their relative performance to the S&P, and to attempt to determine if there is sector rotation going on. I call them "herds".
In addition to the ETF’s, I also draw channel trend lines for the stocks I follow in the various sectors. I look for an overview of the individual stock’s performance, and how it relates to or deviates from the market and herd indicator.
As a general comment, lately it seems the stocks I’m following are somewhat choppy. The research into the herd list supports this, the last 5-8 days are up-down-up-down days. A good way to make money is to identify a market trend, identify a sector trending with the market, and identify and trade in a stock trending with the market. As long as you’re monitoring the performance, then you ride the trend and get out or reverse your position when the market breaks trend, the sector breaks trend, and the stock breaks trend. This chop probably indicates a trend direction change, and is not an investment market.
Rock is always early. I said I think this week that the S&P weekly stochastics were on the bottom, as were the daily. This is the time to invest. This is the one time of the year you’ll make the most money. Well, over the last 3 weeks, the S&P has closed within 3 points, which says we’ve got some price stabilization. The Dow Transports are showing near all-time highs. Things are on the move. Early, but I’m full of bull again.
I saw a good pullback in AAPL, so I went long, and added over the last couple of days to a full position. I believe it to be undervalued. I think it’s time for that one to at least beta up and even beat the market.
We’re going into earnings season now. I look at the retail sector, and it’s pretty much holding steady. Holding steady means we’re likely to see like last earnings season, a significant number of outperforms. So I’m thinking the rally will likely come during the earnings season.
I know this is opposite to what Dastro thinks.
Looking at the media, the gloom and doom boys can’t see that solvent countries are going to do everything in their power to save the banks. Actually, the rich have the most to lose: If you’re holding dollar denominated securities and the dollar disappears, your securities can be used as wallpaper. So we’re going to save the rich.
Now let’s trade this one!
I went through the herd list, and found that many had broken their downchannel trend, such as XRT, IRET, $DJT, UCC. However, breaking their downchannel, and being positive relative to the S&P are different things. If their downchannel is so steep, breaking out may simply bring them to par with the S&P. Anyway, here’s the data:
0.03 BBH
0.02 XBI IBB XME XES
0.01 UTH ITB IGV XRT KOL UCC OIH SLX TAN
-0.01 GDX $BKX KRE KBE KIE
-0.02 KCE
-0.03 GLD
So if you’re investing in capital markets or gold, that’s down. Banks are suffering. People are getting out of that and getting into biotech, and metals again.
I will be going long in CENX into earnings. I believe in them more than AA but AA will report first and set the trend, for sure. That’s why I’ll get out of CENX before AA reports.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Trend Day Up
Today was about as pretty as a trend day can be, gapping up and never looking back. These are rare events so I thought I would post a chart of of it.
Trend days often start with a gap up and they close on their highs. Price tends to follow the 20 ema. Today there was a fake out near the close with everyone expecting a sell off which never materialized.
After hours the ES has not pulled back significantly (as of 9:58 central) which is bullish.
This trend day was also interesting because it came on the heels of yesterday's almost trend day which did sell off in the last hour.
Getting close
Hello everybody,
Well I'm narrowing the list of stocks to pay attention to from all the ones that I follow now.
I mentioned APKT VRSN DECK ACTG to the donside as good candidates.Now the market is moving up so I'll check how they fare, in order to confront their astrological weakness with the reality of the price action.
TXRH is on the rise but had in the past 6 months two triple tops so to speak and is close to the high of 2005 so I'll keep an eye on her particularly next week around Thursday and or Friday to see if corrects more heavily or the correction is over and plans to make a new historic high.
On the long side I'm paying attention to JBL HERO MDCO JBLU TSYS MKSI and to my regulars SPPI ACAS BSX I started paying more attention to NVTL which past year mentioned in early Oct that I liked it but wanted to see what would happen in November first. October 26 started dropping and didn't stop until past month.Followed the drop (but not getting short, just watching what kind of personality it has).
And MTW AKAM PMTI appeared under the radar too.
Regarding the s&p 500 still mantains the Thursday 16 as the low and the chances for a puke like I mentioned are getting closer and if it's going to happen should be in the next 3-4 days. Otherwise I'll have to consider Thursday 16 like the weakest point and a failed puke at least a few weeks.
Dan
Addendum
June 28, 2011
I didn't mentioned CSCO just because I forgot but is of course an important candidate in the list too.My apologies.
Dan
Well I'm narrowing the list of stocks to pay attention to from all the ones that I follow now.
I mentioned APKT VRSN DECK ACTG to the donside as good candidates.Now the market is moving up so I'll check how they fare, in order to confront their astrological weakness with the reality of the price action.
TXRH is on the rise but had in the past 6 months two triple tops so to speak and is close to the high of 2005 so I'll keep an eye on her particularly next week around Thursday and or Friday to see if corrects more heavily or the correction is over and plans to make a new historic high.
On the long side I'm paying attention to JBL HERO MDCO JBLU TSYS MKSI and to my regulars SPPI ACAS BSX I started paying more attention to NVTL which past year mentioned in early Oct that I liked it but wanted to see what would happen in November first. October 26 started dropping and didn't stop until past month.Followed the drop (but not getting short, just watching what kind of personality it has).
And MTW AKAM PMTI appeared under the radar too.
Regarding the s&p 500 still mantains the Thursday 16 as the low and the chances for a puke like I mentioned are getting closer and if it's going to happen should be in the next 3-4 days. Otherwise I'll have to consider Thursday 16 like the weakest point and a failed puke at least a few weeks.
Dan
Addendum
June 28, 2011
I didn't mentioned CSCO just because I forgot but is of course an important candidate in the list too.My apologies.
Dan
Monday, June 27, 2011
Manny Mondays: Gone Fishin' Open Thread Edition
Morning all! I'm not really going fishing, but my wife and I did leave a day early for our 8th wedding anniversary trip to Madeline Island, our first visit there, so have at it, folks. We've heard good things about it and are very excited about the trip. Therefore, since I didn't have time to keep up with the news this weekend and write a post, the floor is yours. Back late Thursday! Enjoy the week. Sorry for the short notice, but put your shorts on. Manny's heading out of town!
http://www.madelineisland.com/
http://tinyurl.com/66j2plz
http://www.trek-trail.com/
http://www.madelineisland.com/
http://tinyurl.com/66j2plz
http://www.trek-trail.com/
Saturday, June 25, 2011
June 26, 2011 Linkfest
A guide to the escalating conflict in the South China Sea
WSJ: Investors Hazard Bold Bet on Yuan
YOKU not looking good
The Sensex is bipolar
WSJ: Hungry China Shops in Argentina
FT: Strong balance sheets help fuel surge in US buy-backs. 2011 is on trend for $548 billion compared to $655 billion for 2006...
Groupon’s idea of going quiet. Bonus: Groupon's CEO prepares his "**** you, shareholders!" face.
Top court rules for Janus in securities case
What I Think Technical Analysis Is
WSJ: Investors Hazard Bold Bet on Yuan
YOKU not looking good
The Sensex is bipolar
WSJ: Hungry China Shops in Argentina
FT: Strong balance sheets help fuel surge in US buy-backs. 2011 is on trend for $548 billion compared to $655 billion for 2006...
Groupon’s idea of going quiet. Bonus: Groupon's CEO prepares his "**** you, shareholders!" face.
Top court rules for Janus in securities case
What I Think Technical Analysis Is
Friday, June 24, 2011
Friday Pot Pouri
Astute Illinois Farmers Make Out Like Bandits
"Farmers, who bet on the weather each growing season, have emerged as the shrewdest gamblers in the housing industry.
A decade ago, they began seeing land values escalate as homebuilders needed raw land to satisfy demand. They sold land to homebuilders at high prices, took their profit and invested in land downstate that they leased to local farmers. Now they are back in Chicago's far-flung suburbs, spending a pittance of what land sold for five to 10 years ago, planting crops and profiting from surging commodity prices."
One Eerie Thought About Magnificent Mile Gang Violence
"Over the last few days, I've been asked by many people: "Why aren't you writing about the downtown 'flash-mobs'? There's so much to say about race."
I've been thinking about the situation a lot. Pondering it. Wondering what's going on to make these crimes that are so very ordinary just a few miles away from the Loop finally happen there.
The truth is, I don't have much to say. I could go on and on about how this sort of criminal activity happens all the time, and why doesn't the media cover it? But that's too naive. I know perfectly well why they don't."
A storm that shook the ’burbs
Any of these photos could have been my block. It looked like a war zone when I left town. Interestingly enough, it did not seem like a terrible storm as it happened. Just a bit of high winds and not much rain.
"Farmers, who bet on the weather each growing season, have emerged as the shrewdest gamblers in the housing industry.
A decade ago, they began seeing land values escalate as homebuilders needed raw land to satisfy demand. They sold land to homebuilders at high prices, took their profit and invested in land downstate that they leased to local farmers. Now they are back in Chicago's far-flung suburbs, spending a pittance of what land sold for five to 10 years ago, planting crops and profiting from surging commodity prices."
One Eerie Thought About Magnificent Mile Gang Violence
"Over the last few days, I've been asked by many people: "Why aren't you writing about the downtown 'flash-mobs'? There's so much to say about race."
I've been thinking about the situation a lot. Pondering it. Wondering what's going on to make these crimes that are so very ordinary just a few miles away from the Loop finally happen there.
The truth is, I don't have much to say. I could go on and on about how this sort of criminal activity happens all the time, and why doesn't the media cover it? But that's too naive. I know perfectly well why they don't."
A storm that shook the ’burbs
Any of these photos could have been my block. It looked like a war zone when I left town. Interestingly enough, it did not seem like a terrible storm as it happened. Just a bit of high winds and not much rain.
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