Hello everybody
Well I don't have too much to say because I said it in advance the past two weeks.
The giddiness that unnerved me I think it was solved.If any remained, yesterday at the close, it was smack out of people's faces for sure. The panic mode was palpable.
Regarding my mentioning two weeks ago about a 1931-32 kind of move (but not that drastic) well I think that this two weeks were a really good primer about what the greater generation endured.
And we are now at August 9th so between today and Friday we can have a rally or at least a bottoming process which I'm going to follow closer than the past weeks movements. Still out and in no rush at all.
On a political-financial note I have to admit that this standard & poor's dudes did a good hit job, like they did in 2007 luring lots and lots of foreign investors in their racket.
Now, remaining true to their very core principles it's time to attack USA. Did they got help in this sad outcome?
Of course there were a lot of sinister actors involved, but I always remember fondly the inestimable help that George W Bush provided (some democrats too for sure) who took the debt from 4.1 trillion in 2000 to 9.1 trillion when he left office. To me he is the epitome of a traitor.
Why?
Because you have to badly weaken and corner a strong and proud nation before the ransacking goes full steam.Using for almost doubling the debt, the Irak war. A "preemptive war", which means we attack just in case, but there's not a relevant cause whatsoever.
So they succeded augmenting the debt, and a nation this indebted starts to only expect less and less. Just not being badly mistreated, or beaten up too much starts becoming the good outcome for the population.
Doubling the debt burden put her on her knees, and once proud it just fucking stop complaining and now is starting to open her mouth to entertain the creditors.
I'm sick to my stomach but that is probably the great legacy of "The Uniter".
Dan
Great post Dan.
ReplyDeleteTurnaround Tuesday as of now. The market waiting for BB.
S&P futures green.
ICan
OMG greenage!
ReplyDeleteGreat post, Dan. Hhhhhmm, maybe time to take some TLT off the table?
ReplyDeleteDastro - The Party was in 1999, I hated that song when it came out in the mid 80's
ReplyDeleteGood stuff, especially the political take in the second half.
Make no mistake I am not a GWB fan, but at this stage of our history it seems doubtful many of our politicians know the rights and responsibilities they are elected into office for in the firsrt place.
But that was an excellent call over the past couple week, keep up the good work.
Mutt
Already selling into this rip?
ReplyDeletewe've got chop. right now. Saw some initial selling volume, but the volume's quieted now.
ReplyDeleteNo confirmation volume shows me that until more good/bad news is available, we'll pretty much stay in this range.
Nice gap covering.
ReplyDeleteVolume has really dropped off, which is favorable to the HFTs.
ReplyDeleteFollowing the Flash Crash script, we would get 2-3 days of rallying/sideways trading before selling returns.
ReplyDeleteThese Hedge Funds May Be Blowing Up Right Now
ReplyDeleteMorning folks! Great post Dan!
ReplyDeleteGod call on today's action Ican !
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteGood article.
I have a question: even with getting prospectsuseses from the funds, how could Monkey know their current positions? And because of printing and mailing delays, including the fact that each prospectus is constructed quarterly, how can Monkey get accurate information?
I think, without looking at an article that has their estimates, against the funds' documented quarterly performance, this one could be all guesswork. (They may hve put out such an article, I don't follow Monkey so I don't know). Although the article is written from "a we know it all" perspective, I wonder how that can be so.
Any ideas?
Rioting in London? 16000 police in the streets?
ReplyDelete"For What it's Worth" comes to mind.
Rock - I hardly ever listen to MSM, but when I was on the internet yesterday, I saw an article about the London Riots so I turned on T.V. and the only mention of it was about t 3 minute long piece 2/3 the way through the programming.
ReplyDeleteAlmost like...Oh By the way, there is some rioting in London, but the bad guys will be caught, now carry on.
Personally I think 16,000 police in a major city, who are about to do battle with their own country men is news worthy.
Keep in mind to that it is 100% illegal for anyone to own a fire arm in Britain.
Mutt
After Bernanke speaks, does the market usually rise or fall?
ReplyDeleteI googled and couldn't find a report, so I counted articles, and the count is
15: fall
11: rise
Not very scientific, but the best I could do without doing the basic research. (time is limted here).
Rock - I say the market continues up after Bernanke speaks.
ReplyDeleteIt is already up big and TPTB want it to continue up.
Some how in their minds they believe the higher the stock prices the better the economy is, they want...NEED it to go up
That is my two pennies.
Mutt
Rock - I've been reading about the riots in London. It looks like that what we're seeing there is more along the lines of the LA Riots back in the 90's, as opposed to what we're seeing in Greece and Spain.
ReplyDeleteThis is lawlessness, people (mostly youth) rampaging around cities, breaking windows, setting shit on fire, and basically looting.
When I was in London earlier this year I saw a morning news show that was a special on the violence and disrespect for authority of many of the UK's youth.
Agreed all. I find it a little strange (and telling) that 3-day rioting in London is barely "news" here. Could you imagine if that happened here in NYC? Chicago? LA? Anywhere in the U.S? Strange days indeed.
ReplyDeleteThor - When people are bold enuff to make a call like you did yesterday about Ford, I enjoy watching the stocks to see how they perform and get a better understanding of the thinking process that goes into making such a call.
ReplyDeleteAnd to tell you the truth, yesterday I thought you were just a little off your rocker for going long at this point.
But it looks like no matter what price you bought at yesterday, you hit a home rum.
I hope you bought a lot and at yesterdays lows, cuz that would mean you are well over 15% in under 24hours.
Good call that one took are real set of balls.
I hope you take some of your profits and enjoy yourself.
Mutt
Manny - Maybe TPTB don't want the violence in London sparking anything like that here. Can you imagine if that sort of thing went down in NYC or Chicago?
ReplyDeleteAnd let's not forget, the main difference between violence in the UK, as opposed to violence here:
ReplyDeleteGuns
Mannwich - Maybe uninhibited lawlessness is happening more often the we hear about.
ReplyDeleteSchool, is out for the summer, cities, counties and states are needing to cut back on parks and recs programs, law enforcement is under monetary strain as well as EMS services
And parts of our country just went through a major heat wave, this means more youths up late at night trying to avoid the heat, but they have nothing constructive to do.
I can not imagine they were not out causing problems
Maybe there is a lot more lawlessness going on, but it's being treated like nothing is happening - You know ignore it long enuff it will go away.
Mutt
Ah, I can't wait for additional cuts in law enforcement and emergency responders.
ReplyDeleteEmmie - me too. Crime in LA is lower now than it's been since the early 60's.
ReplyDeleteI also think that we're living through SO many global newsworthy events almost daily now that it becomes kind of like, "oh, London is in its third day of riots with 16K police out in force?....yawn, what's for dinner?" Seriously, so much happening, you almost become numb to it.
ReplyDeleteThor - I would argue the point of guns being the main difference in violence here and else where.
ReplyDeleteWhen pushed to the point of acting in violence, I doubt most people think "Ghee, I wish I had a gun". No they will use whatever means necissary to act out.
Guns make a lot of headlines, but are not the only way violence is undertaken.
I do believe if riots broke out in the U.S. more EMS service and innocent by standards will be hurt and or killed by guns, but I honestly do not believe they would either help or hinder people from acting violetly.
And I sure as hell am not going to give up fire arms.
Mutt
Manny - That's a very good point. Hard to get too upset about street riots in London when everything here is such a mess. Here, China, Paris, Tokyo, Mumbai, Ottowa, etc etc. Everyone has their "big problems" :-/
ReplyDeleteMutt - I won't get involved in arguing the merits of the Second Amendment, sorry ;-)
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Barney's on live TV ripping farts. He couldn't hold it?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/while-everyone-watching-paint-dry-waiting-chairsatan-either-kill-market-or-send-it-soaring
This is encouraging. . . a drop in the bucket, I know, but still. . .
ReplyDeletehttp://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-pension-rollbacks-20110809,0,1605170.story
State pension agency slashes benefits for top-paid officials
CalPERS reviews 2,250 retirement payments and determines that 329, including those of former Bell officials Robert Rizzo and Angela Spaccia, need to be cut.
Rally fading a bit here. Makes me nervous that we got more to go on this selloff. Maybe much more.
ReplyDeleteAh, margins reqs were raised. That explains a little of today.
ReplyDeleteWow, everything just got lit up like a candle.
ReplyDeleteLow rates until 2013. What are savers to do but take risk! Sorry for old folks who are in GICs!
ReplyDeleteLooks good for NLY. Good for risk assets and ems like India.
ICan
Manny's going to squeal when he sees his TLT.
ReplyDeleteWhat a market.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteThe VXX, on the 10 minute chart, is showing the "bird" pattern. The "bird" is a very narrow and tall head-and-shoulders.
I know with the volatility out there now, it's difficult to call, but often the bird ends with a break down.
We may see a picorally toward the end of the day.
Or maybe not.
@ICan
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on NLY.
Thv VXX breakdown has taken place. If you're day trading, you may want to get out on the channel exit.
ReplyDeleteI am looking for another choppy day tomorrow. Based on the buying trend at the end of today, I'm thinking tomorrow will be a pop up.
Will See.
Anyway, I'm staying long with a couple of my good performers overnight. I'll probably regret it in the morning. could be Coyote Stocks.
Wait a second here, we got a 430 point bounce on news that interest rates are going to stay low indefinitely? How in god's name is it positive news that we are becoming even MORE Japanese?
ReplyDelete+53 on the SPX. Probably not a sustainable rally...
ReplyDeleteI notice Gold also went up today. Looks like not everyone is buying the snake oil being sold by the Fed.
ReplyDelete@Emmy(3:42)
ReplyDeleteThanks to you too and all who post and comment here and other places(takes time/effort).
Good to see you back.
ICan
I think some weird form of "stagdeflation" (as Roubini has put it a while back) is upon us.
ReplyDeleteHoly rally into the close. Was on the elliptical at the gym watching it zig-zag around after Banana Ben, then went lift weights not knowing how things closed. Wow, crazines. Lot of green again on my screen though, including TLT. Crazy days.
ReplyDeleteStagdeflation, I like that a lot!
ReplyDeleteGood god, what happened with TLT in that final hour? Touched 109.37 briefly, I see, and then sold off, settling back at 105.87. Question is, what to do now with? It's kind of a core holding so I don't want to dump it all, but may want to trim it a bit. But I'm leaving town tomorrow. Really sucks. Going to be really tough to pay close enough attention starting tomorrow through next Tuesday. What to do, what to do...
ReplyDeleteManny - that's a hard one. I agree with Emmie, I don't think one days large snap-back rally is telling us too much yet. . .
ReplyDeleteI agree with that, Thor. It's kind of a "working vacation", so I may be able to pay soem attention parts of Thursday and Friday, but tomorrow I'll be in the car all day and then in the car again the better parts of Monday and Tuesday of next week. Will have to follow on my iPhone (when not driving, of course).
ReplyDeleteI chuckled a little at the gym when I saw headline of "Fed holding rates exceptionally low through mid-2013. I can just see it now when we get to mid-2013 with Banana Ben announcing the very same thing but extending it to mid-2015. And so on and so on. Without any real help from the clowns in Washington in terms of getting the economy back on its feet again and creating jobs again, we are totally screwed. It's going to be a lost decade or worse and the many ripple effects of that will likely be very significant. Maybe that's what S&P's rating really reflects, the realization that our country is now ungovernable politically and is essentially a vote of "no confidence" that our political leaders will actually help (or not harm) matters here.
ReplyDeleteThink about just how much of a farce these "markets" have become as well. I mean, seriously, do these crazy moves either way really inspire any confidence at all that this is something to put a lot of money into if you're average Joe/Jane. For this reason, I think many of have already gotten out of equities, for the most part, for this reason, and that this latest dumping, will mostly hurt the pro's. Just a theory though.
ReplyDeleteManny - agree with that. I think when this is said and done, we'll have another entire generation that will have nothing to do with the stock market for the rest of their lives.
ReplyDeleteI agree with that, Thor. I think that's why I'm not seeing that much angst in the real world from people about the stock market these days. Most people either know it's a farce and/or are already out for the most part (or are pretty conservatively positioned overall). I'm serious. I'm just not seeing that much angst about it from people I know. Just a lot of shrugging at this point.
ReplyDeleteI do think REAL quality dividend stocks will be good plays though, for the most part.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to everyone.
ReplyDeleteI realize that is starting to become common to get into good trades, Mutt with shorts, Thor with F, Manny (with TLT),Rock and the rest are very experienced already.
So looks like we are advancing, I'm really glad.
Dan
Dan - Thank you very much! :-)
ReplyDeleteManny - Agree with the dividend stocks. I want to own stocks in companies that make things well. I admire Ford quite a bit, have owned three of them, my best, by far, being the one I just bought in November. Plus I was impressed by their having their shit mostly together during the 2008/2009 fiasco.
If these idiots in DC and Wall Street keep at this much longer, I fear that they are going to ultimately destroy the entire world economy. It's not as if the EU, China or Japan are doing much better. My mind just keeps going back to what would happen if that entire house or cards came tumbling down at once. What would ultimately be worth something. Hard assets, paper money, hell, in a worst case scenario, ANY form of paper or digital monetary wealth could ultimately be worth almost nothing. It's the hard physical assets that will be valuable. I HOPE! :-)
PLUS - along with Ford. At some point in the not too distant future I think that the Sheeple might wake up and figure out that not buying American is not necessarily working to their advantage. American cars are every bit as well built, and FAR better designed than anything coming out of Japan these days.
ReplyDelete