Rock started off well this AM, but got greedy and gave it all back. Sigh.
I shoulld Learn to be patient.
Looking at the SPY, it could be we see a bounce of this 10% correction. I am thinking now this might be a buying opportunity.
Because of the suddenness of the fall, I'm not thinking it will continue. True, I'm still long the VXX, but I'm thinking of reducing my position. And reducing my short positions on RVBD and WBMD.
@Mutt:
thanks. It's good to be back. Now I just have to take posession of the house. We'll see how that goes.
I don't think I will go to Taiwan. I know, when the boss says to jump, on the way up you ask "how high?" But this time, I think I'm pretty done and will stay here.
Looking at the S&P on the monthly chart, the last 4 months have dropped us out of the upchannel which started March, 2009. I'm thinking this spike will draw European money because nobody wants to be there, and we'll get less regret here.
So if we go back up this month to 1290 and beyond, we'll be back in the upchannel.
That's what I'm looking for. Check Dastro's post, he's thinking around Aug/M we could see a rally. But if we don't pop back into the upchannel, I'm thinking the next stop is about 1000.
We'll have to measure the regret from the world. As we know, Brazil, whose president said he was waiting for Obama to ask him for a loan, plummeted 8% over the last couple days. some regret there, for sure. And I think somebody commented yesterday that there was a run on Italian banks. Sure some regret there, looking at the credit spreads.
I think the MSM focused us too much on the debt ceiling circus, and kinda forgot the rest of the world's regrets.
Just want to tell everyone here, thank you for the market lessons, what to look for, how to look for it, but above all Patients – Not expecting the market to act the way you think it should has been an extremely important lesson to grasp.
Among several of the stocks I follow is an ETF called DRV (It is a Real Estate Bear) I have played with it (A quick in and out) in the past couple months and done ok-ish.
Because of last weeks Debt Ceiling debate, I bought some DRV to hold into this Monday or Tuesday at which time I was going to sell and reverse my position and go with DRN, hoping for a quick bounce. As that had been the pattern, DRV goes up a little only to have any upside wiped clean and given to DRN (That is why I only held for the day)
Well Monday the Market was looking pretty bad, so I held until Tuesday, Tuesday the Market looked even worse and so on, until we end up with a continued Market slide into today.
I have never hit a grand slam home run, so I do not know what it feels like to do so, but I could not have, nor would have done as well with this if it were not for you folks and people like Denise, Andy and Ben22 (And SEVERAL others) who have let me learn from not only your mistakes, but from your successes too.
By no means does this make me a skilled trader (Yet) but I am slowly and surely learning.
I will be closing my position out and tonight will be ordering a Large Domino’s Extravaganza Pizza in all your honor.
Thor - I have never been a big fan of BoA, they were the only major bank in the town I left so they knew they had their custmers where they wanted them.
They did nothing to help the people and infact (seemed) to go out of their way to squeeze every dime they could.
I don't trade the financials. From my take, many of the earnings reports may be um, adjusted, but since the financial Institutions are all made up of liars, I expect all their earnings reports are fabricated. Especially when we know they've sold worthless tranches.
Bloomberg said the economists estimate for year-end averages around 1400. That's below our upchannel, The algos may notice this, as well as Bloomie said people were removing large amounts from funds.
It could be that your negative numbers could be seen, after a short rally.
Morgan Stanley's ex-spurt has it at 1238, and one was as high as 1530.
They're looking for s&P companies earnings to be 18% this year, and 12% next year.
These numbers don't make much sense to me. with a GDP heading for 2.5% in the US, that says the earnings have to come from overseas. But it looks like Europe's going to be weak through the end of the year, so I guess it's Kenya that's going to start buying.
Really, how are earnings going to get to 18%? HSBC announced a huge layoff, and let the financials lead the way.
Good work, man. It's hreally hard to keep on keeping on.
I'm looking for a sell-off toward the end of the day. So it's good to see the market up a percent now. I have some dry powder waiting for thaat to start, then I too, like you, will be out over the weekend.
I agree, Rock. There's is nothing legitimate about their financials, as they basically have carte blanche by the Feds and regulators to lie for as long as possible to "restore confidence". Who doesn't think this is just a joke at this point?
Rock - Thanks, it is nice to have the hard work and effort start to pay off.
Last year was my first year of actually trading and I expected to loose money (Which I DID!!!) in the learning process.
If I would have bailed on Tuesday I would have been even on the year, which is nothing to complain about as there is still a lot to learn.
But holding into the down market was a good move and allowed me to turn my very first profit (Which part of will go into Pizza, in honor of you guys)
I believe people and the markets are waking up to the BTE news being full of shit, so am expecting more moves down, but I also believe TPTB will do anything to keep the games going, I got lucky last weekend - but holding was also part of that plan.
This weekend I have no plan, so there is no reason to stay in - I missed the DRV top by 0.48 cents a share, which would have meant extra anchovies, but am happy to be out.
As happy as I am right now, I realize and know that a trip to the caves is always around the corner.
By the way, I know the "Manny indicator" has broken down lately, but I am leaving town the middle of next until the following Tuesday. Place your bets accordingly.
Mannwich (2:08) - "Who doesn't think this is just a joke at this point?"
For the last two years you have know this has all been a joke, but TPTB would not listen to you.
Now J6P are starting to see things the way you and some of the others here have seen it and starting to realize the joke is on them - And it ain't a funny joke.
It seems that Syria's Assad may be headed toward a similar fate to Mubarak. Maybe ditto Qaddafi. Maye they can all share a hospital bed cage at their trials?
Trust in society and culture (in each other and the system) is the most precious thing you can have (as we're find out here). Once it's gone, it's hard to get back very easily. Shouldn't be taken for granted.
I'm still dumbfounded by this bizarre (but highly eventful) period that we're living through. How/When does it all end? Me-thinks the banks (and maybe big corps and politicians) have a really big boomerang style backlash coming, as I'm starting to see people talk more openly about it.
If we lapse into another recession or worse after everything that we've done to save the very culprits in this mess, how do you think the Sheeple will respond and to whom will they direct their ire? I think I know the answer and have known it for a long time now.
Mannwich (2:59) - Yes I think we will end in green, I think the major part of the sell of is currently over and at this point TPTB will do what they can to keep the market from slidinf further.
Depending on the news that comes out over the weekened, I would not be surprised to see Monday being up big.
But I am not trading anything, cuz there is way too much uncertainty.
So the ECB is going to start buying Italian Bonds?
I've shocked people haven't figured out that that's what happened to the fabled "bond vigilantes". Once the Chinese and "public" decides they've had enough, the central banks pick up the slack. Yet people still continue to think that interest rates are going to go up.
Thor - If interest rates go up and down as a gauge of how much risk lenders and buyers are willing to take, but buyers are no longer willing or capable of taking on any more risk then how can interest rates go up?
I know that interest rates can be kept artifically low, so it only stands to reason they can be held high too.
But besides Barak Hussain Obama and our wonderful Congress, who else really wants or is able to borrow?
It seems like all these countries are buying each others debt, hoping they can sell it to someone else before they get burned.
So we find out how worthless the rating agencies are, again.
They can't even add right.
You'd think somebody who knows something would go over the numbers, wouldn't you?
Over at the fly's blog, there is a guy who bombs analyists. He quit a week ago. I'll bet right now he's widhing he didn't quit. As I am, I would love to hear his analysis.
86% of the time, a country's stock market rose after a debt downgrade. In this case, I believe the market will go down, because regardless of the ratings and math errors in the statement, and S&P's opinion of our politicians, everybody already knew that stuff. The collateral damage will be that sheeple will now have fear, and money will move from the market into gold.
But Emmanuel117's option trade is the winner: 1/2 his options will be worthless, and will expire unexercised, and 1/2 will make him big bucks. Actually I don't know the details of his trade, but if he put a 1 month timeframe, he's a winner.
But the best bet would be to long the VXX. If nothing else, volatility will go up.
That's why I'm out of all stocks every night, except for my investmennt accounts which is holding a very very very low-volatile asset, gold. One that doesn't get whacked on the pee-pee at every headline.
I think I commented on it when the GDP numbers were revised and announced, but I forget esxactly. so here it goes again:
Because of inflation, and lower-than-inflation GDP growth, we are still in recession. We never got out of it.
What that means:
So since we're in recession, and asset growth is still negative, we have deflation.
The deflation is variable by region, of course. Deflation is really bad in LA, MISS, St. Louis. If you want the details, hit the NY Fed website and read.
To resolve it for yourself, personally, just work real hard to make sure your assets grow more than 2.9% per year. That will offset the inflation aspect, and leave the asset growth issue. That will resolve itself in time. If you have a short timeframe for your house, as I do, you need to protect that. However, being young and virle, you should have no problem outlasting any asset devaluation you're facing.
So hang in there. work hard, and good things will come to you in the long run.
I do wonder, however, why the US MSM seems to be ignoring this little Gem in the S&P release last night.
They single out Republicans for ruling out tax rises. "It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options... Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist an
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14431319y measure that would raise revenues."
Anyone else seeing this mentioned in the news this weekend? Is this a failed attempt at "fair and balanced"?
So the way I decided to protect my short term assets from falling prices, I mortgaged my houses and put the money in investment accounts at various brokers. (I use the tools of TDAmeritrade for trading and evaluation, I just use the others to buy/sell).
Because of the trending of the market during QE2, those assets grew about 40%. I think that covered the deflation of my asset value, so it was a lucky decision. Now all those accounts are in gold.
I read many articles on gold, and hav come to the conclusion that gold does not increase in value, it simply retains its value as other things change. So many of the articles I read said "it's a hedge against inflation". I started to believe it.
We believed the rating agencies' evaluation of MBS's, why shouldn't we believe them now? Simply because their math is wrong?
Really, I was watching MSNBC during dinner last night ahd they had on a Bloomberg analyist (go figure?) who explained it like this
The rating agencies are supposed to rate how safe a bet the specific investment is. In this case, the investment is more risky as a result of the political system's inability to get a viable solution in place.
So, let's see, what sovereign debt now has AAA rating, so after I pull out of US Treasuries, where should I put that money?
Rock (1:19) - Smart move on protecting your ass....ets
The area I moved from is normally pretty protected from economic down turns (And upturns), but when we saw houses that should have been selling in th 80k range selling for 150k you just know something is not right.
So we sold our house (Owner Contract) and moved away.
The place we are in now is not as nice of a house as the one we sold, but the neighborhood is good and we only owe 20k left on it.
But what I see as an increasing deflationary period is one of the biggest motivators to getting the Charger sold and with falling gas prices and the article that Mike just posted, it hopefully wont be too difficult.
Very Smart move on your part to protect yourself, most people just don't seem to want or care to take the effort...Oh well.
Rock - wow! You've thought about this a lot more than I have. I've been wondering what might be a "safe haven" in years to come. For some reason, I keep coming back to assets. Things I can hold in my hand, or live in. I have quite a bit just sitting in a money market fund at Vanguard though. It's been sitting there, in cash, for about three years now and I intend to just keep it there for the time being. I also have some gold, and a good amount of physical cash in a safe place.
I know it's just paranoia on my part, but I keep having these images in my head of everything just coming to a screeching halt at some point and no one being able to get money out of the banks, investment companies, 401K's.
I was out last night when I heard this news and immediately the irony of Obama and the Feds not shutting down these criminal organizations and charging anyone with a crime hit me. Now these same firms are biting them in the ass. Just perfect. That's what they get for not pursuing those mostly responsible for meltdown and choosing to "look forward". No balls Obama (or willfully and purposefully corrupt, not sure which I favor) strkes again. I'm guessing that this irony isn't lost on anyone here either? The theater of the absurd rolls onward. You couldn't make this shit up.
I agree with Rock though. The damage is largely one of the confidence by the Sheeple, who will likely be shaken by this development, which could then cause further retrenchment and then another dip back into a recession or worse. Heckuva job fearless leaders in D.C! The irony is that in the short term Treasuries could actually benefit from those fleeing stocks and looking for a "safe haven". As will gold and maybe silver.
@Thor: I truly shudder to think about that one. Buckle up everyone. The next few years could really be a doozy. And we thought the previous few years were eventful. I believe (and hope I'm wrong, believe me) that we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Real "change" (if not hope) may well be foisted upon all of us soon.
We must all remember that the two most important commodity in a country, culture and community is TRUST (and confidence in EACH OTHER and the system). It is the very foundation for a such complex entity to thrive and survive. Once that breaks down in any meaningful fashion, all is lost.
First, based on the numbers, we never left recession.
Second, with 17 million unemployable that are unemployed, the %age is around 19%.
I did the numbers for you guys, and just the other night, I heard Christina agree with it. She is great. She would make a terrific vice-president to Hillary. That's a pair that would beat 3 of a kind, and get this country back on the right track.
So who's an opinionated old man?
In the SJ Merc News today, there's a front page article where the headline is "indian firms hire scores of US workers".
the text includes "Indian outsourcers are hiring thousands of expensive engineers and business development specialists in silicon Valle and nationwide. The shift in strategy reflects the growing complexity of outsourced work that now requires levels of expertise not widely found in India. It's getting harder to hire the best Indian engineers--as competion fros from such US giants as HP, IBM and Accenture....and harder to move them overseas."
Now here's a stroke of reality for you younger guys: When there was a serious problem in computers, management always sent us BIOS programmers, because we knew our shit. Now all the dotNet programmers can't even spell assembly language, so when something goes wrong, there's no one to call for help.
the only other person I ever knew who was as good at machine and assembly language as me was my age. And I'm about to retire.
As you may know, Intel's latest processor had a math co-processor error, and had to be recalled. That included Intel had to pay a lot of money to rework HP and Dell computers that had already installed the processor.
That's only the start of payback for Intel's chairman. The Merc news tells it like it is, and if I were on the board, I'd throw that chairman out.
So, in conclusion for this comment, the US exported the advanced technology tools, but not the expertise on how to debug the problems that arise. That takes home-grown skills and knowledge, which doesn't go with the Mentors and their user manuals.
There is hope to reduce the US enemploment. We just need a champion of our knowledge, and a marketing organization who knows how to position it.
Manny - I agree. I'm still holding out hope that at some point, possibly next election, maybe even sooner, the GOP will forcibly eject the Tea Baggers, they have to see the writing on the wall, they are extremely unpopular and likely will be a liability for them going into the next elections. The Democrats can now push as far as they want to (if they eventually get the guts, the people are already on their side). They could force a shut down of the government and I think the population would once again blame the GOP and Tea Party.
So maybe, if we're really lucky, some good things will come out of this. As much as I think he's a shitty president, I can't see anyone who's running now, even Romney, beating him next year, can you?
Rock, I agree. No offense to my Indian friends and co-workers, but we have quite a few developers of Indian origin in our office, some are good, some are not so good, overall, we find that US born developers have a higher quality of work. Same for the outsourcing we do in India, the fine detail work is always finished locally.
As much as we have fallen behind in a number of important industries, we are still the world leader in quite a number of them. Rock, would you agree that we pretty much own the computing, especially the higher end computer industry in this world? All the best work is done here correct? China and India don't even come close. . .
I dunno, Thor. A LOT can happen in a little over a year, as we know. Expect the unexpected.
@Rock: Firing up the jobs engine in this country is largely about the will by our leaders to do what it takes to do so. Those at the very top of the food chain need to understand that as an American citizen it's in THEIR best interests as well to do some substantive things (and maybe even sacrifice something in the short term) to help improve our employment situation as well.
I have no opinion about that. I do have the opinion that Caucasians, American, Indians, and Chinese all make equally boneheaded plays.
After PFE lobbied and lobbied, and got the concession from Congress to make their R&D expense a tax credit, they then proceeded to move all their R&D offshore. 20,000 US jobs were eliminated. They relocated many of their top scientists. Those guys went because they would have found it difficult to find another job except teach, and even PHDs have to get a certificate. And the result? PFE has not developed a single new important drug over the years of offshore R&D.
I used to read patents. I found that most of the patents resulting from basic research were done in the United States, but the names on the patents were pretty-much multinational.
Looking at the education system in Singapore, the children there are taught to memorize and repeat. There has been some activity by the Sing government to shift over to the US method of teaching, but they still have pretty much a memorization focus. Which is why their, and Chinese, children score better on international math tests than US children (which makes many people believe their children are smarter).
I do believe, like the SJ Merc News says, that it takes closely-coupled business creation and development skills (marketing) and highly creative implementation skills (engineering) to form a successful business.
Anyone can memorize a Mentor manual and lay out chips. Anywhere in the world.
I do have one observation, and that is the Chinese are bigger risk-takers.
Here's the thing though - didn't most of us predict this very thing would happen, namely a sovereign debt crisis, as a result of basically not solving the banking problems back in '09 and pushing those debts onto soveriegn balance sheets instead? I mean, it's not like a "nobody could have predicted" scenarior here, although I'm waiting for someone to trot that oldie but goodie out again.
Reality finally sinking in with the MSM too. Where have they been? There was never a real "recovery", as Rock and many of us have been saying all along. Good grief.
MSM finally waking up to reality. Good grief. Where have they been? As many of us have opined for the last couple of years, there was no real "recovery". Wake up.
If this market sinks, watch out for buyouts and mergers. The big difference between now and 2008 is the amount of residual cash held by corporations.
Just so you all know, that if you decide to ignore Mutt's sage observation, and trade, that you for sure a. immediately after your trade you input a stop loss; if the trade is going your way change it to a trailing stop. b. you watch that trade every second and get out the second it moves outside it's channel, up or down. c. don't look back.
I think one of the big banks is going down, Thor. BAC could be the prime target. Citi is way too important internationally to go down so they will be saved at all costs. I can see BAC getting served up as the sacrificial lamb and broken up though to throw a bone to us nabobs.
One of the many ironies is that our debt and deficit will only get worse under a full on deflationary scenario too. I fear that far too many people fail to understand this simple fact.
Not sure, I Can. It seems that many forces are hellbent on bringing the house down again, but possibly even worse this time. Yet another Shock Doctrinaire shakedown in progress?
When will the Global Sheeple finally see through this ruse of epic proportions and actually fight back, instead of working to undermine their (our) own interests?
Here comes the urgency to cut more from the "debt panel". This is all one giant charade to scare the Sheeple into giving up even more for our masters in the rentier class. Is this not obvious to anyone else?
Funny, they find the money for:
Endless wars Endless bailouts for the super rich
But no money for:
Everything else Global Sheeple
Ain't "Lemon Socialism" grand? I'd call it something else. Fascism.
The bill on the last crash and bailouts coming due and everyone except for the very top (and the very culprits in this very mess) will now pay for it. Freaking-fantastic!
I truly worry this latest crisis could be worse than the last one. Far worse. What happens then when basically all trust and confidence in our leaders, each other and the system has basically evaporated for good? There really is no commodity more precious to keep things together.
I think you're right, emmy. Damn cave is as crowded as an NYC subway at rush hour. I think many of us are in shock that we were right. Again. Not surprised, really, but shocked, yes, that our leaders and fellow citizens could be this misguided, selfish, nihilistic, greedy, you name it.
It's amusing how many "fiscal conservatives" become Military Keynesians when the budget axe calls for defense cuts. I'd say S&P hit the nail right on the head...
Isn't it amazing, emmy? The intelletual dishonesty is just mind-numbing.
I'm not saying S&P is necessarily wrong but I'm quite sure they have an agenda of some sort too and for me they have no credibility left, so I won't listen to them about anything even if they may be right. Their execs should be in prison and companies shut down.
But here's the thing - perhaps this does represent just how dysfunctional our country really is? Everyone seems to want cuts but never ones that adversely affect them. That's for the other guy/gal because their interests aren't as worthwhile. There's no feeling of "community" or "unity" in this country anymore. Not paying for, or sacrificing anything for, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has only fostered this narcisstic, selfish viewpoint. Trust in our soceity has broken down so nobody feels like they should have to sacrifice anything that they value, but this mantra starts at the very top, so it's no wonder the Sheeple are following their lead in this regard. It's truly sad and pathetic to watch unfold.
Mannwich (12:16) - I am not sure anyone here is surprised or shocked, heck I ma not even sure there is a word for it, it sure is not Amazement, is DisMazement a word?
Will our PTB have one last trick up there sleeve or is this the begining of the slid to the other side?
Yes emmy. We somehow have the money to destroy nations, people and things, but no money whatsoever to build things here at home, rebuild infrastructure, foster jobs growth, etc.
The so-called "magic" of the "free markets" and confidence fairy will simply take care of all of those. It's truly tragic to watch such a wealthy nation destroy ourselves over such greed and selfishness.
I wonder if people are also now putting off large expenditures like we saw in '08, which will further excacerbate the fall back into a recession or worse? I'm sure quite a few.
Emmanuel117 – So they say Defense Spending is stimulative.
How can that be?
They spend tons of money on building bombs, if they do not use the bombs…Well that spending was rather wasted, why spend money on something you aren’t going to use.
However if the do use the bomb, they just wasted all the money when the bomb went BOOM!!!!
Same thing for ships and planes and tanks, hmmmm Not sure that is the kind of stimulation that is healthy.
I was just thinking the very same thing, emmy. Not kidding. What choice do they have at this point? Even the teabagger idiots themselves (well, maybe not all of them) may well come around that to the thought that there's really no other choice, unless they truly want a second GD, or worse? Which is, of course, very possible with these ignoramus nihilists. There weren't any good choices before and there certainly are none now. Only less bad choices by varying degrees. Are we adult enough as a nation to accept that and act accordingly (and stay together doing it)? What a failure of leadership by everyone, starting with the president himself. Very sad.
DOW sub 10K. Get those Dow 10K hats ready again? Are we headed back to the March '09 bottom? Long way to go yet, but a few more days like today and not that far when you think about it.
This is what happens when people learn the exact wrong lessons from things. Over and over and over again. After a while, I start to think it's on purpose (takes off tin foi hat).
Glad I didn't sell my TLT. The only thing making me not bury myself completely in my own personal cave of regret. But still in there. Just not as deep.
Manny, yes, I sorta bought the dip. I bought stock last time the market tanked like this (in 2008). Had I held on to what I'd purchased, even just a couple of years, I'd have made a killing :-(
Saw that, Thor. I think they're going to be ultimately served up as TBTF sacrificial lamb and broken up. Yet another one I had right but didn't "get right" by pulling the trigger. Someone please shoot me.
I wonder where old cognos is these days from TBP? Pretty interesting he's nowhere to be found now, isn't it?
Oh no, Thor. TLT is one of my few trades that I've gotten right almost every time the last couple of years. It's been my only consistent winner. This one's no different.
Next bump gets sold off hard (if we have a next bump). Negative wealth effect means the 401k crowd goes to cash for the rainy days that may be coming. The Europe and BAC matters are going to hang over the market.
Remember it wasn't too long ago that I asked if anyone thought the boomers we going to be smart enough to pull out their money in stocks after the last two years of positive returns. Somehow I think the answer to that question is "not many".
I keep forgetting that most Boomers hadn't saved enough before 2008, never mind now.
I agree with emmy. Next rip gets sold hard as peeps panic and flee this farce of a "market", maybe for good (or least for a long time). Hard to get that trust back, even with a culture this greedy for a quick buck. Some hard lessons need to be learned and re-learned, apparently.
@Thor: The good news is I advised my Dad, who's 75 and not a Boomer to not get into stocks when we were near the OBL top. Thankfully he heeded my advice. Same thing with my wife's 95 year-old grandfather, who recently got out in time before this latest downdraft and has no business being in stocks in this farce of a so-called "market", even if they were dividend-paying.
Yes Rockk Welcome home.
ReplyDeleteI hope you get to enjoy your family.
Mutt
Good job numbers.
ReplyDelete...and scratch that.
ReplyDelete*Snark*
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel117 - When I got up this morning the headline read "Stocks Rally 1% After Strong Payrolls, Sell-Off"
Um doesn't look like it's going to hold.
Mutt
I have a TLT put spread position on. For QE3.
ReplyDelete(fastens seat belt)
Good Lord, what swings.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel117 - This is more fun then eating a Big'O breakfast at Denny's then going for a ride on the Tilt-A-Whirl.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteI think we just finished another breakfast (with bacon).
Rock started off well this AM, but got greedy and gave it all back. Sigh.
ReplyDeleteI shoulld Learn to be patient.
Looking at the SPY, it could be we see a bounce of this 10% correction. I am thinking now this might be a buying opportunity.
Because of the suddenness of the fall, I'm not thinking it will continue. True, I'm still long the VXX, but I'm thinking of reducing my position. And reducing my short positions on RVBD and WBMD.
@Mutt:
thanks. It's good to be back. Now I just have to take posession of the house. We'll see how that goes.
I don't think I will go to Taiwan. I know, when the boss says to jump, on the way up you ask "how high?" But this time, I think I'm pretty done and will stay here.
@Rock
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the Caves of Regret (which currently spreads from sea to shining sea).
@Emmanuel117
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Looking at the S&P on the monthly chart, the last 4 months have dropped us out of the upchannel which started March, 2009. I'm thinking this spike will draw European money because nobody wants to be there, and we'll get less regret here.
So if we go back up this month to 1290 and beyond, we'll be back in the upchannel.
That's what I'm looking for. Check Dastro's post, he's thinking around Aug/M we could see a rally. But if we don't pop back into the upchannel, I'm thinking the next stop is about 1000.
We'll have to measure the regret from the world. As we know, Brazil, whose president said he was waiting for Obama to ask him for a loan, plummeted 8% over the last couple days. some regret there, for sure. And I think somebody commented yesterday that there was a run on Italian banks. Sure some regret there, looking at the credit spreads.
I think the MSM focused us too much on the debt ceiling circus, and kinda forgot the rest of the world's regrets.
Yes, it's good to be back. Thanks.
Europe closed, biggest weekly drop since 2008.
ReplyDeleteOuch.
WOW guys! That was quite the bounce this morning wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteJoke :-)
Naked Capitalism is starting a BofA Death Watch. . .
ReplyDelete<http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/bank-of-america-death-watch.html
Just want to tell everyone here, thank you for the market lessons, what to look for, how to look for it, but above all Patients – Not expecting the market to act the way you think it should has been an extremely important lesson to grasp.
ReplyDeleteAmong several of the stocks I follow is an ETF called DRV (It is a Real Estate Bear) I have played with it (A quick in and out) in the past couple months and done ok-ish.
Because of last weeks Debt Ceiling debate, I bought some DRV to hold into this Monday or Tuesday at which time I was going to sell and reverse my position and go with DRN, hoping for a quick bounce. As that had been the pattern, DRV goes up a little only to have any upside wiped clean and given to DRN (That is why I only held for the day)
Well Monday the Market was looking pretty bad, so I held until Tuesday, Tuesday the Market looked even worse and so on, until we end up with a continued Market slide into today.
I have never hit a grand slam home run, so I do not know what it feels like to do so, but I could not have, nor would have done as well with this if it were not for you folks and people like Denise, Andy and Ben22 (And SEVERAL others) who have let me learn from not only your mistakes, but from your successes too.
By no means does this make me a skilled trader (Yet) but I am slowly and surely learning.
I will be closing my position out and tonight will be ordering a Large Domino’s Extravaganza Pizza in all your honor.
Thank you for your lessons.
Mangy Mutt
Lunch break = 20 point swing.
ReplyDeleteThor - I have never been a big fan of BoA, they were the only major bank in the town I left so they knew they had their custmers where they wanted them.
ReplyDeleteThey did nothing to help the people and infact (seemed) to go out of their way to squeeze every dime they could.
I will be happy to pee on their grave.
Mutt
Yeah welcome to your home good ol' Rock ;)
ReplyDeleteAnd congrats for the bearish stance. Mightyly fine position, as well as some other friends here from what I've gathered.
We've all been awaiting something of this kind for quite some time now, but sure feels creepy when it happens! Trade safe (or not at all lol).
ReplyDeleteThe charts today looks like the EKG of someone in the middle of a heart attack.
ReplyDeleteAnd well done Mutt. You, too, "Rock" :D
ReplyDeleteNow we're up again - Schizophrenia anyone?
ReplyDeleteBig lunch we're eating, Mutt. Does the Tilt-a-Whirl go supersonic?
ReplyDeleteQuite the rolleroaster today. Something tells me we aren't done with these wild intra-day swings for a while.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Wolfie. It's not surprising but still a little shocking (or creepy, as you said) when it actually happens.
ReplyDeleteI weep for getting out of my C and RIMM shorts. And VXX.
And for NOT shorting BAC into oblivion.
ReplyDeleteFutures:
ReplyDeleteBin Laden Top: 1373.5
Today's Low: 1163.25
-15.3%
Pre-Flash Crash Top: 1216.75
Flash Crash Low: 1056
-13.5%
Post-Flash Crash Low: 1002.75
-17.6%
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteI don't trade the financials. From my take, many of the earnings reports may be um, adjusted, but since the financial Institutions are all made up of liars, I expect all their earnings reports are fabricated. Especially when we know they've sold worthless tranches.
Nope. I don't trade the financials.
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteBloomberg said the economists estimate for year-end averages around 1400. That's below our upchannel, The algos may notice this, as well as Bloomie said people were removing large amounts from funds.
It could be that your negative numbers could be seen, after a short rally.
Morgan Stanley's ex-spurt has it at 1238, and one was as high as 1530.
They're looking for s&P companies earnings to be 18% this year, and 12% next year.
These numbers don't make much sense to me. with a GDP heading for 2.5% in the US, that says the earnings have to come from overseas. But it looks like Europe's going to be weak through the end of the year, so I guess it's Kenya that's going to start buying.
Really, how are earnings going to get to 18%? HSBC announced a huge layoff, and let the financials lead the way.
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteGood work, man. It's hreally hard to keep on keeping on.
I'm looking for a sell-off toward the end of the day. So it's good to see the market up a percent now. I have some dry powder waiting for thaat to start, then I too, like you, will be out over the weekend.
Who knows? The Chinese may buy Europe.
I agree, Rock. There's is nothing legitimate about their financials, as they basically have carte blanche by the Feds and regulators to lie for as long as possible to "restore confidence". Who doesn't think this is just a joke at this point?
ReplyDeleteRock - Thanks, it is nice to have the hard work and effort start to pay off.
ReplyDeleteLast year was my first year of actually trading and I expected to loose money (Which I DID!!!) in the learning process.
If I would have bailed on Tuesday I would have been even on the year, which is nothing to complain about as there is still a lot to learn.
But holding into the down market was a good move and allowed me to turn my very first profit (Which part of will go into Pizza, in honor of you guys)
I believe people and the markets are waking up to the BTE news being full of shit, so am expecting more moves down, but I also believe TPTB will do anything to keep the games going, I got lucky last weekend - but holding was also part of that plan.
This weekend I have no plan, so there is no reason to stay in - I missed the DRV top by 0.48 cents a share, which would have meant extra anchovies, but am happy to be out.
As happy as I am right now, I realize and know that a trip to the caves is always around the corner.
Mutt
By the way, I know the "Manny indicator" has broken down lately, but I am leaving town the middle of next until the following Tuesday. Place your bets accordingly.
ReplyDeleteMannwich (2:08) - "Who doesn't think this is just a joke at this point?"
ReplyDeleteFor the last two years you have know this has all been a joke, but TPTB would not listen to you.
Now J6P are starting to see things the way you and some of the others here have seen it and starting to realize the joke is on them - And it ain't a funny joke.
Mutt
Does anyone really think we'll end the day green today? I don't.
ReplyDelete@Mutt
ReplyDeleteLooks like the selloff began around 2:00. I'm a full position long the VXX.
Treasuries aren't following yet.
ReplyDeleteThings heating up in Syria. Slowly, the Global Sheeple apparently have realized they've had enough kicks to the face.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/05/syrian-protests-hama-bombed_n_919147.html
Great for you, Rock. I was just a smidgeon early on VXX (and a big position too) and ditched it a bit early. (as he bangs his head against the wall).
ReplyDeleteI'm just not a good short term trader.
We're back to the adage of "will anyone want to be long into the weekend?"
ReplyDelete'08 replay but different.
Is it high time for a global debt jubilee? The giant red "reset" button?
ReplyDeleteIt seems that Syria's Assad may be headed toward a similar fate to Mubarak. Maybe ditto Qaddafi. Maye they can all share a hospital bed cage at their trials?
ReplyDeleteTrust in society and culture (in each other and the system) is the most precious thing you can have (as we're find out here). Once it's gone, it's hard to get back very easily. Shouldn't be taken for granted.
I'm still dumbfounded by this bizarre (but highly eventful) period that we're living through. How/When does it all end? Me-thinks the banks (and maybe big corps and politicians) have a really big boomerang style backlash coming, as I'm starting to see people talk more openly about it.
ReplyDeleteIf we lapse into another recession or worse after everything that we've done to save the very culprits in this mess, how do you think the Sheeple will respond and to whom will they direct their ire? I think I know the answer and have known it for a long time now.
Rock - It looks like you made a great call with your VXX, if you keep trading like that, you won't have to go back to work.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mnnwich:
ReplyDeleteI got out at 31.51.
Turned a slightly red dy into a green day that met my goals.\
My goals were more than met this week, the gold in my investment accounts did well, and playing short this week did extremely well.
I'm thinking next week we might start to see chop, waitin gof Dastro's rally the next week. But as Dastro says, "will see".
:-)
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteMight want to take some TLT profits.
Mannwich (2:59) - Yes I think we will end in green, I think the major part of the sell of is currently over and at this point TPTB will do what they can to keep the market from slidinf further.
ReplyDeleteDepending on the news that comes out over the weekened, I would not be surprised to see Monday being up big.
But I am not trading anything, cuz there is way too much uncertainty.
Mutt
Going to be close!!
ReplyDeleteBusiest day since the Flash Crash.
ReplyDeleteSo the ECB is going to start buying Italian Bonds?
ReplyDeleteI've shocked people haven't figured out that that's what happened to the fabled "bond vigilantes". Once the Chinese and "public" decides they've had enough, the central banks pick up the slack. Yet people still continue to think that interest rates are going to go up.
I hve to learn to type on this stupid keyboard that has a travel of about 1/8".
ReplyDeleteWho ever invented these, anyway?
Thor - If interest rates go up and down as a gauge of how much risk lenders and buyers are willing to take, but buyers are no longer willing or capable of taking on any more risk then how can interest rates go up?
ReplyDeleteI know that interest rates can be kept artifically low, so it only stands to reason they can be held high too.
But besides Barak Hussain Obama and our wonderful Congress, who else really wants or is able to borrow?
It seems like all these countries are buying each others debt, hoping they can sell it to someone else before they get burned.
Mutt
Good thought, emmy. Was just thinking about doing that, actually, and may do on Monday. Don't want to be a pig here.
ReplyDeleteRock - You can always trade that tiresome keyboard in for an old fashion type writter.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeletewhadda you mean,m
OLD FASHIONED???
I found my SCM 1200 in the closet when I moved. Still there.
I'm a little concerned about powering it up, though. Some of the insulation has cracked off the cord......
U.S. Loses AAA Credit Rating as S&P Downgrades on Concerns Over Debt Plan
ReplyDeleteNow, we get to find out who has more power in the bond markets: the bond vigilantes or the investors in need of safe financial assets.
Posted 20 mins after close of trading in the extend hours.
ReplyDeleteIntertesting timing.
do you suppost the info could have leaked out yesterday?
@Rock
ReplyDeleteIf not...oh boy...
(fastens seatbelt, ignores the "Made in China" tag)
Rock - As I sit here eating my extravaganza Pizza I am contemplating your 9:06.
ReplyDeleteFirst it should not be a surprise that U.S. was downgraded as the S&P and Moodies both said they would if there were not any serious spending cuts.
There weren't/aren't any serious cuts, just more can kicking.
But when you say "do you suppose the info could have leaked out yesterday?" what do you mean?
Are you saying that may have been the reason for the big sell off yesterday or the lack of a sell off today?
What I am wondering is what is your take on how the Stock market moves forward after hearing this.
Thanks
Mangy Mutt
Oh by the way the Pizza is YUMMY
So we find out how worthless the rating agencies are, again.
ReplyDeleteThey can't even add right.
You'd think somebody who knows something would go over the numbers, wouldn't you?
Over at the fly's blog, there is a guy who bombs analyists. He quit a week ago. I'll bet right now he's widhing he didn't quit. As I am, I would love to hear his analysis.
@Mutt:
ReplyDelete86% of the time, a country's stock market rose after a debt downgrade. In this case, I believe the market will go down, because regardless of the ratings and math errors in the statement, and S&P's opinion of our politicians, everybody already knew that stuff. The collateral damage will be that sheeple will now have fear, and money will move from the market into gold.
But Emmanuel117's option trade is the winner: 1/2 his options will be worthless, and will expire unexercised, and 1/2 will make him big bucks. Actually I don't know the details of his trade, but if he put a 1 month timeframe, he's a winner.
But the best bet would be to long the VXX. If nothing else, volatility will go up.
@Rock
ReplyDeleteSadly, I put on an SPY call spread before the close...
Sounds like your gold positions will be a winner.
(Man, the Caves of Regret are deep)
(fastens seatbelt, ignores the "Made in China" tag)
ReplyDeleteHahahaha!
Sheesh, what a mess, so Monday should be interesting. To say the least.
GHere's a funny one. No risk. Shows what Tim knows.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/and-just-because-there-risk-us-could-lose-its-aaa-rating-tim-geithner-no-risk?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
wow, that link is so long, I hope it comes through.
Rock - Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSo under normal cerumstances stocks would go up on a rating down grade, but because the U.S. has a Bohner our stocks will probably go down.
But Gold is the trade to get into.
Thanks
Mutt
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteHere's a presentation from Goldman. They're saying the market goes down, too.
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-explains-whats-at-stake-right-now-because-of-the-debt-ceiling-2011-7#
But what does GS and Rock know? nothing.
ReplyDeleteNothing at all.
That's why I'm out of all stocks every night, except for my investmennt accounts which is holding a very very very low-volatile asset, gold. One that doesn't get whacked on the pee-pee at every headline.
How soon until we start hearing about deflation again? I give it less than a month.
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteWe already heard it.
I think I commented on it when the GDP numbers were revised and announced, but I forget esxactly. so here it goes again:
Because of inflation, and lower-than-inflation GDP growth, we are still in recession. We never got out of it.
What that means:
So since we're in recession, and asset growth is still negative, we have deflation.
The deflation is variable by region, of course. Deflation is really bad in LA, MISS, St. Louis. If you want the details, hit the NY Fed website and read.
To resolve it for yourself, personally, just work real hard to make sure your assets grow more than 2.9% per year. That will offset the inflation aspect, and leave the asset growth issue. That will resolve itself in time. If you have a short timeframe for your house, as I do, you need to protect that. However, being young and virle, you should have no problem outlasting any asset devaluation you're facing.
So hang in there. work hard, and good things will come to you in the long run.
I went over to Fry's and bought a real keyboard. djpi;f nr mp mptr yu[omh rttptd/
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteRE: Deflation:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/06/business/fannie-mae-seeks-more-help-as-its-loss-grows.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
It is unclear from the article whether the loss is a paper loss or losses through defaults, necessitating reposessions.
You sure you're glad you came home? ;-)
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteEvery minute of every day.
I'm very glad I'm here while we go through this.
I'll bet Rock, was just kidding :-)
ReplyDeleteI do wonder, however, why the US MSM seems to be ignoring this little Gem in the S&P release last night.
They single out Republicans for ruling out tax rises. "It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options... Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist an
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14431319y measure that would raise revenues."
Anyone else seeing this mentioned in the news this weekend? Is this a failed attempt at "fair and balanced"?
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteSo the way I decided to protect my short term assets from falling prices, I mortgaged my houses and put the money in investment accounts at various brokers. (I use the tools of TDAmeritrade for trading and evaluation, I just use the others to buy/sell).
Because of the trending of the market during QE2, those assets grew about 40%. I think that covered the deflation of my asset value, so it was a lucky decision. Now all those accounts are in gold.
I read many articles on gold, and hav come to the conclusion that gold does not increase in value, it simply retains its value as other things change. So many of the articles I read said "it's a hedge against inflation". I started to believe it.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteWe believed the rating agencies' evaluation of MBS's, why shouldn't we believe them now? Simply because their math is wrong?
Really, I was watching MSNBC during dinner last night ahd they had on a Bloomberg analyist (go figure?) who explained it like this
The rating agencies are supposed to rate how safe a bet the specific investment is. In this case, the investment is more risky as a result of the political system's inability to get a viable solution in place.
So, let's see, what sovereign debt now has AAA rating, so after I pull out of US Treasuries, where should I put that money?
Maybe the country of AAPL?
ReplyDeleteConsumer credit increasing for the first time since 2008. Related to the price of oil perhaps?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/
mike
Rock (1:19) - Smart move on protecting your ass....ets
ReplyDeleteThe area I moved from is normally pretty protected from economic down turns (And upturns), but when we saw houses that should have been selling in th 80k range selling for 150k you just know something is not right.
So we sold our house (Owner Contract) and moved away.
The place we are in now is not as nice of a house as the one we sold, but the neighborhood is good and we only owe 20k left on it.
But what I see as an increasing deflationary period is one of the biggest motivators to getting the Charger sold and with falling gas prices and the article that Mike just posted, it hopefully wont be too difficult.
Very Smart move on your part to protect yourself, most people just don't seem to want or care to take the effort...Oh well.
Mangy Mutt
Rock - wow! You've thought about this a lot more than I have. I've been wondering what might be a "safe haven" in years to come. For some reason, I keep coming back to assets. Things I can hold in my hand, or live in. I have quite a bit just sitting in a money market fund at Vanguard though. It's been sitting there, in cash, for about three years now and I intend to just keep it there for the time being. I also have some gold, and a good amount of physical cash in a safe place.
ReplyDeleteI know it's just paranoia on my part, but I keep having these images in my head of everything just coming to a screeching halt at some point and no one being able to get money out of the banks, investment companies, 401K's.
I was out last night when I heard this news and immediately the irony of Obama and the Feds not shutting down these criminal organizations and charging anyone with a crime hit me. Now these same firms are biting them in the ass. Just perfect. That's what they get for not pursuing those mostly responsible for meltdown and choosing to "look forward". No balls Obama (or willfully and purposefully corrupt, not sure which I favor) strkes again. I'm guessing that this irony isn't lost on anyone here either? The theater of the absurd rolls onward. You couldn't make this shit up.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Rock though. The damage is largely one of the confidence by the Sheeple, who will likely be shaken by this development, which could then cause further retrenchment and then another dip back into a recession or worse. Heckuva job fearless leaders in D.C! The irony is that in the short term Treasuries could actually benefit from those fleeing stocks and looking for a "safe haven". As will gold and maybe silver.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry to say that I pretty much agree with MAnnwich.
ReplyDeleteIt's really difficult to admit you agree with someone whose opinion you don't want to be right.
I Agree with the Fly on silver, though. It's retarded.
Think about this. If we enter another recession, with the unemployment rate already above 9%, how high will it go at the peak of the next recession?
ReplyDelete@Thor: I truly shudder to think about that one. Buckle up everyone. The next few years could really be a doozy. And we thought the previous few years were eventful. I believe (and hope I'm wrong, believe me) that we ain't seen nuthin' yet. Real "change" (if not hope) may well be foisted upon all of us soon.
ReplyDeleteWe must all remember that the two most important commodity in a country, culture and community is TRUST (and confidence in EACH OTHER and the system). It is the very foundation for a such complex entity to thrive and survive. Once that breaks down in any meaningful fashion, all is lost.
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteFirst, based on the numbers, we never left recession.
Second, with 17 million unemployable that are unemployed, the %age is around 19%.
I did the numbers for you guys, and just the other night, I heard Christina agree with it. She is great. She would make a terrific vice-president to Hillary. That's a pair that would beat 3 of a kind, and get this country back on the right track.
So who's an opinionated old man?
In the SJ Merc News today, there's a front page article where the headline is "indian firms hire scores of US workers".
the text includes
"Indian outsourcers are hiring thousands of expensive engineers and business development specialists in silicon Valle and nationwide. The shift in strategy reflects the growing complexity of outsourced work that now requires levels of expertise not widely found in India. It's getting harder to hire the best Indian engineers--as competion fros from such US giants as HP, IBM and Accenture....and harder to move them overseas."
Now here's a stroke of reality for you younger guys: When there was a serious problem in computers, management always sent us BIOS programmers, because we knew our shit. Now all the dotNet programmers can't even spell assembly language, so when something goes wrong, there's no one to call for help.
the only other person I ever knew who was as good at machine and assembly language as me was my age. And I'm about to retire.
As you may know, Intel's latest processor had a math co-processor error, and had to be recalled. That included Intel had to pay a lot of money to rework HP and Dell computers that had already installed the processor.
That's only the start of payback for Intel's chairman. The Merc news tells it like it is, and if I were on the board, I'd throw that chairman out.
So, in conclusion for this comment, the US exported the advanced technology tools, but not the expertise on how to debug the problems that arise. That takes home-grown skills and knowledge, which doesn't go with the Mentors and their user manuals.
There is hope to reduce the US enemploment. We just need a champion of our knowledge, and a marketing organization who knows how to position it.
Manny - I agree. I'm still holding out hope that at some point, possibly next election, maybe even sooner, the GOP will forcibly eject the Tea Baggers, they have to see the writing on the wall, they are extremely unpopular and likely will be a liability for them going into the next elections. The Democrats can now push as far as they want to (if they eventually get the guts, the people are already on their side). They could force a shut down of the government and I think the population would once again blame the GOP and Tea Party.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe, if we're really lucky, some good things will come out of this. As much as I think he's a shitty president, I can't see anyone who's running now, even Romney, beating him next year, can you?
Rock, I agree. No offense to my Indian friends and co-workers, but we have quite a few developers of Indian origin in our office, some are good, some are not so good, overall, we find that US born developers have a higher quality of work. Same for the outsourcing we do in India, the fine detail work is always finished locally.
ReplyDeleteAs much as we have fallen behind in a number of important industries, we are still the world leader in quite a number of them. Rock, would you agree that we pretty much own the computing, especially the higher end computer industry in this world? All the best work is done here correct? China and India don't even come close. . .
I dunno, Thor. A LOT can happen in a little over a year, as we know. Expect the unexpected.
ReplyDelete@Rock: Firing up the jobs engine in this country is largely about the will by our leaders to do what it takes to do so. Those at the very top of the food chain need to understand that as an American citizen it's in THEIR best interests as well to do some substantive things (and maybe even sacrifice something in the short term) to help improve our employment situation as well.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI have no opinion about that. I do have the opinion that Caucasians, American, Indians, and Chinese all make equally boneheaded plays.
After PFE lobbied and lobbied, and got the concession from Congress to make their R&D expense a tax credit, they then proceeded to move all their R&D offshore. 20,000 US jobs were eliminated. They relocated many of their top scientists. Those guys went because they would have found it difficult to find another job except teach, and even PHDs have to get a certificate. And the result? PFE has not developed a single new important drug over the years of offshore R&D.
I used to read patents. I found that most of the patents resulting from basic research were done in the United States, but the names on the patents were pretty-much multinational.
Looking at the education system in Singapore, the children there are taught to memorize and repeat. There has been some activity by the Sing government to shift over to the US method of teaching, but they still have pretty much a memorization focus. Which is why their, and Chinese, children score better on international math tests than US children (which makes many people believe their children are smarter).
I do believe, like the SJ Merc News says, that it takes closely-coupled business creation and development skills (marketing) and highly creative implementation skills (engineering) to form a successful business.
Anyone can memorize a Mentor manual and lay out chips. Anywhere in the world.
I do have one observation, and that is the Chinese are bigger risk-takers.
@Mannwich:
I think your 11:14 nails it exactly.
Futures down nearly 250, tomorrow is going to be a blood bath at the opening.
ReplyDeleteYikes Thor. '08 is back with a vengeance. But different.
ReplyDeleteGood thing I bought that gold three years ago! ;-)
ReplyDeleteHere's the thing though - didn't most of us predict this very thing would happen, namely a sovereign debt crisis, as a result of basically not solving the banking problems back in '09 and pushing those debts onto soveriegn balance sheets instead? I mean, it's not like a "nobody could have predicted" scenarior here, although I'm waiting for someone to trot that oldie but goodie out again.
ReplyDeleteQE in Europe!
ReplyDelete"Trichet Draws ECB 'Bazooka' to stem contagion" - bloomberg.
Then there is Japan's CB.
AUD/JPY, USD/JPY green.
ICan
Noda - Japan's FM.
ReplyDelete"Noda: G-7 will take any action necessary to stabilize markets" - bloomberg.
ICan
Worldwide PPT is back!
ReplyDeleteBullish for paper, inkjet stocks. See-no-forest stock should be up Monday.
ICan
ICan - from what we've witnessed over the past three years, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
ReplyDeleteManny, wouldn't be a bit surprised by that scenario either!
I think if there's one thing that's stuck with me over the last couple years, is to expect anything, on the upside, or the downside.
Futures creeping back up. . .
ReplyDeleteReality finally sinking in with the MSM too. Where have they been? There was never a real "recovery", as Rock and many of us have been saying all along. Good grief.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/a-second-recession-could-be-much-worse-than-the-first.html?_r=1&hp
MSM finally waking up to reality. Good grief. Where have they been? As many of us have opined for the last couple of years, there was no real "recovery". Wake up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/a-second-recession-could-be-much-worse-than-the-first.html?_r=1&hp
I weep for ditching my VXX too soon. Way too soon. The caves of regret.
ReplyDeleteMy Guess is the next couple weeks is going to be a killing grounds for many people.
ReplyDeleteOur PTB have put too much effort into the stock market rally equaling an economic recovery.
But they have driven up the price of comodities.
We now have a down grade in U.S. rating.
All I can say is Whhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
And best of luck to anyone with the guts to step into this and trade.
Mangy Mutt
Tokyo falling farther in the red.
ReplyDeleteFutures back down below -220
Hang Sang down closer to 3.5%
ReplyDeleteLet's hope for the best
ReplyDeleteMutt
Futures at 1131-1132 would be the Flash Crash-equivalent floor.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm going away this week on Wednesday. Ugh. Not good.
ReplyDelete@All
ReplyDeleteMutt is SOOOOOOO right.
If this market sinks, watch out for buyouts and mergers. The big difference between now and 2008 is the amount of residual cash held by corporations.
Just so you all know, that if you decide to ignore Mutt's sage observation, and trade, that you for sure
a. immediately after your trade you input a stop loss; if the trade is going your way change it to a trailing stop.
b. you watch that trade every second and get out the second it moves outside it's channel, up or down.
c. don't look back.
See you in the morning. Figuratively.
I wonder if one of the larger banks will go under, maybe just one at least? BofA?
ReplyDeleteRock, yes, but remember, that record amount of cash, is also overshadowed by an even larger record of debt.
ReplyDeleteI think one of the big banks is going down, Thor. BAC could be the prime target. Citi is way too important internationally to go down so they will be saved at all costs. I can see BAC getting served up as the sacrificial lamb and broken up though to throw a bone to us nabobs.
ReplyDeleteOverreaction to the U.S. debt downgrade.
ReplyDeleteIrony of it all is Treasury yields are lower today and U$D up. Economic growth is more of a concern. Flight to safety!!! Ha!
"Oh, say does that star-spanled banner yet wave?" - globeandmail.com
ICan
If US is AA, then who is AAA? PMs?
ReplyDeleteICan
@I Can: S&P = Uber-contrarian indicator?
ReplyDeleteOne of the many ironies is that our debt and deficit will only get worse under a full on deflationary scenario too. I fear that far too many people fail to understand this simple fact.
@Jeff,
ReplyDeleteYour(8:55). That's the concern! Growth. When, where will it come from?
ECB is buying 1.2 trillion in bonds? - bloomberg. Another QE!
ICan
WTF!
ReplyDelete"Police raid Milan offices of Moody's and Standard and Poor's" - Guardian. ht TBP.
ICan
Not sure, I Can. It seems that many forces are hellbent on bringing the house down again, but possibly even worse this time. Yet another Shock Doctrinaire shakedown in progress?
ReplyDeleteWhen will the Global Sheeple finally see through this ruse of epic proportions and actually fight back, instead of working to undermine their (our) own interests?
On bloomberg this AM: one talking head believes we will gap down at the open and stay there, churning.
ReplyDeletesounds like he couldn't sell overnight.
My guess is down in the AM, and some recovery in the afternoon followed by another late day selloff.
Will See
Look at this bloodbath right out of the gates. Liquidate everything. Everything must go! Happy now, teabegger nihilists? What a joke.
ReplyDeleteSee what rock knows? nothing.
ReplyDeleteI'm long RVBD and waiting for a turnaround to buy vxx.
I'll be monitoring VXX as well, Rock. (hangs head in shame)
ReplyDeleteNLY - bought.
ReplyDeleteWe'll see.
ICan
Here comes the urgency to cut more from the "debt panel". This is all one giant charade to scare the Sheeple into giving up even more for our masters in the rentier class. Is this not obvious to anyone else?
ReplyDeleteFunny, they find the money for:
Endless wars
Endless bailouts for the super rich
But no money for:
Everything else Global Sheeple
Ain't "Lemon Socialism" grand? I'd call it something else. Fascism.
The link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/us/politics/08panel.html?hp
The bill on the last crash and bailouts coming due and everyone except for the very top (and the very culprits in this very mess) will now pay for it. Freaking-fantastic!
1131 today?
ReplyDeleteOne word - Wow.
ReplyDeleteI truly worry this latest crisis could be worse than the last one. Far worse. What happens then when basically all trust and confidence in our leaders, each other and the system has basically evaporated for good? There really is no commodity more precious to keep things together.
ReplyDeleteI think most of humanity is in the Caves of Regret at this point.
ReplyDeleteBill Miller Blasts S&P Downgrade
ReplyDeleteSo S&P was probably right...
Is it time to dust off my DOW 10,000 Rally Cap?
ReplyDeleteMutt
Mutt - perhaps! :-)
ReplyDeleteLong drive in this morning. . .
I think you're right, emmy. Damn cave is as crowded as an NYC subway at rush hour. I think many of us are in shock that we were right. Again. Not surprised, really, but shocked, yes, that our leaders and fellow citizens could be this misguided, selfish, nihilistic, greedy, you name it.
ReplyDeleteIt's amusing how many "fiscal conservatives" become Military Keynesians when the budget axe calls for defense cuts. I'd say S&P hit the nail right on the head...
ReplyDeleteOur Favorite Bank is down over 15% this morning and limping along.
ReplyDeleteIf investors or fleeing this sinking ship and there will not(Can not) be any more bail out money for these pigs - What are they going to do?
Mutt
Isn't it amazing, emmy? The intelletual dishonesty is just mind-numbing.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying S&P is necessarily wrong but I'm quite sure they have an agenda of some sort too and for me they have no credibility left, so I won't listen to them about anything even if they may be right. Their execs should be in prison and companies shut down.
But here's the thing - perhaps this does represent just how dysfunctional our country really is? Everyone seems to want cuts but never ones that adversely affect them. That's for the other guy/gal because their interests aren't as worthwhile. There's no feeling of "community" or "unity" in this country anymore. Not paying for, or sacrificing anything for, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has only fostered this narcisstic, selfish viewpoint. Trust in our soceity has broken down so nobody feels like they should have to sacrifice anything that they value, but this mantra starts at the very top, so it's no wonder the Sheeple are following their lead in this regard. It's truly sad and pathetic to watch unfold.
Mannwich (12:16) - I am not sure anyone here is surprised or shocked, heck I ma not even sure there is a word for it, it sure is not Amazement, is DisMazement a word?
ReplyDeleteWill our PTB have one last trick up there sleeve or is this the begining of the slid to the other side?
Mutt
@Mutt: BAC, C, RIMM, VXX, all pushed me into my cave of regret. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteThe best part is when they justify defense procurement as "less inefficient" or even "stimulative" (!).
Mood has definitely darkened. Question is, how does it reverse without circling the drain first?
ReplyDeleteIs it 1931 redux or 1937? Or something else entirely?
Yes emmy. We somehow have the money to destroy nations, people and things, but no money whatsoever to build things here at home, rebuild infrastructure, foster jobs growth, etc.
ReplyDeleteThe so-called "magic" of the "free markets" and confidence fairy will simply take care of all of those. It's truly tragic to watch such a wealthy nation destroy ourselves over such greed and selfishness.
Mannwich - The ETF that made me money over the past couple weeks is up HUGE today.
ReplyDeleteI wish I still had them, but I really had no plan other then to hold them through the Debt Debates.
As Rock is fond of saying, "There is always another oppertunity"
Mutt
I wonder if people are also now putting off large expenditures like we saw in '08, which will further excacerbate the fall back into a recession or worse? I'm sure quite a few.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel117 – So they say Defense Spending is stimulative.
ReplyDeleteHow can that be?
They spend tons of money on building bombs, if they do not use the bombs…Well that spending was rather wasted, why spend money on something you aren’t going to use.
However if the do use the bomb, they just wasted all the money when the bomb went BOOM!!!!
Same thing for ships and planes and tanks, hmmmm Not sure that is the kind of stimulation that is healthy.
Mutt
It's all about collective priorities and WILL. Clearly both are way off and/or lacking in our culture and country today.
ReplyDeleteVix curve implies a ‘systematically important shock event’
ReplyDeleteParty like it's 2008!
At least my little TLT is keeping my account looking palatable. Vigilantes!
ReplyDeleteI would just like to announce that I have made my first stock purchase in over 2 years :-)
ReplyDeleteI bought F.
Oh, and I'll continue to buy F if the market route continues over the next several weeks.
ReplyDeleteEven utilites are dumped!
ReplyDeleteTRP?
US will not be needing oil/gas?
Sigh!
ICan
-50!
ReplyDeleteWhen was the last time this happened within week's worth of time?
ICan - Utilities would be next on my list after Ford and GM :-P I know, I know, I'm taking a big risk here . . . .
ReplyDeleteEmmie - I just noticed how much more the S&P was than the DOW
ReplyDeleteMaybe market makers want Benny to print! It's that time of the year - Jackson Hole.
ReplyDeleteICan
I'm not sure what QE3 can do at this point. While ZIRP mean free liquidity for the banks, yet, BAC is circling the toilet bowl.
ReplyDeleteFall of '08 emmy. '08.
ReplyDeleteScary stuff.
-60 coming up...
ReplyDeleteHuh... guess main players had to cancel their holidays... scary Manny, indeed.
ReplyDelete2008. That's been my premise for how long now this year? I'm actually shocked (and dismayed) that call looks to be right.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, PK on fire today over this blog. I have to say, I gotta agree with him.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/aaauuuggghhh-market-commentary-edition/
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think that whoever wins the 2012 elections is going to go on a massive spending/tax cut binge, thanks to those low rates.
-60! 1131 coming up.
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking the very same thing, emmy. Not kidding. What choice do they have at this point? Even the teabagger idiots themselves (well, maybe not all of them) may well come around that to the thought that there's really no other choice, unless they truly want a second GD, or worse? Which is, of course, very possible with these ignoramus nihilists. There weren't any good choices before and there certainly are none now. Only less bad choices by varying degrees. Are we adult enough as a nation to accept that and act accordingly (and stay together doing it)? What a failure of leadership by everyone, starting with the president himself. Very sad.
ReplyDeleteThis is very good. Barbara Ehrenrich of "Nickled & Dimed" weighs in:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.democracynow.org/2011/8/8/nickel_dimed_on_not_getting_by
DOW sub 10K. Get those Dow 10K hats ready again? Are we headed back to the March '09 bottom? Long way to go yet, but a few more days like today and not that far when you think about it.
ReplyDeleteI meant sub-11K. Getting ahead of myself there.
ReplyDeleteThe S&P has now exceeded the Flash Crash peak-trough in percentage terms.
ReplyDeleteWow, Treasuries haven't budged since 12:30.
ReplyDelete-70!
ReplyDeleteIs this yet another "Black Monday" in the offing?
ReplyDeleteThis sure is a stable financial system we have here. Yeah, right. Guess who the ire will be directed at next if this house of cards completely falls?
I had 1120 as the S&P low for the year.
ReplyDeleteI may have been wildly overoptimistic.
Oh, why not -80? How about -90?
ReplyDeleteMannwich (2:16) "I meant sub-11K. Getting ahead of myself there."
ReplyDeleteGive it a couple few days, then you will be spot on.
Mutt
Instead of a catastrophic -80, we're only down a disastrous -53.
ReplyDeleteThe downgrade doom loop?
ReplyDeleteThis is what happens when people learn the exact wrong lessons from things. Over and over and over again. After a while, I start to think it's on purpose (takes off tin foi hat).
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/the-downgrade-doom-loop/
...spoke too soon.
ReplyDeletewozers - figured we'd at least get 500 down today
ReplyDeletecollapsing into the close. I almost waited until the close to buy F too, darn it.
ReplyDeleteGlad I didn't sell my TLT. The only thing making me not bury myself completely in my own personal cave of regret. But still in there. Just not as deep.
ReplyDeleteA summary of today's market action, as depicted by the Rangers of Charlie Company.
ReplyDeleteStock in Caves of Regret real estate development companies jumped 45% today.
Manny - were you stuck in TLT?
ReplyDeleteMutt - I think maybe you might wanna dust off that Dow 10K hat after all ;)
Wow, just wow. Anyone buying this "dip"? LOL. I'm just watching in awe right now.
ReplyDeletemanny - did you see BofA's close????? Down 20%!
ReplyDelete"Stuck in TLT?" What do you mean? Not stuck at all. Just decided to hang onto it. It's the only thing that's doing quite well for me.
ReplyDeleteOil at 80.61!
ReplyDeleteFutures selling to the close.
Manny, yes, I sorta bought the dip. I bought stock last time the market tanked like this (in 2008). Had I held on to what I'd purchased, even just a couple of years, I'd have made a killing :-(
ReplyDeleteManny - got it, I thought maybe you had it several months ago and were sitting on a paper loss waiting for some loss recovery.
ReplyDeleteThis is better though! Congratulations!
Saw that, Thor. I think they're going to be ultimately served up as TBTF sacrificial lamb and broken up. Yet another one I had right but didn't "get right" by pulling the trigger. Someone please shoot me.
ReplyDeleteI wonder where old cognos is these days from TBP? Pretty interesting he's nowhere to be found now, isn't it?
And wanger.
ReplyDeleteOh no, Thor. TLT is one of my few trades that I've gotten right almost every time the last couple of years. It's been my only consistent winner. This one's no different.
ReplyDeleteDeflation is back with a vengeance. Vigilantes!
ReplyDelete1117.5 -> -19% from OBL Top.
ReplyDeleteI think the negative wealth effect is in play, which is not good for the economy.
SPX 50% Fib from the Leftback Bottom and the OBL Top -> 1018.69.
ReplyDeleteSomeone is buying the dip - Su and trp both green now.
ReplyDelete@Rock,
Look at SU at stockcharts.com - waaaaaaaaaaay oversold. I am watching.
NLY - caught a falling knife. But will wait and see.
ICan
@emmy,
ReplyDeletewhere do we go from here?
ICan
@ICan
ReplyDeleteNext bump gets sold off hard (if we have a next bump). Negative wealth effect means the 401k crowd goes to cash for the rainy days that may be coming. The Europe and BAC matters are going to hang over the market.
Remember it wasn't too long ago that I asked if anyone thought the boomers we going to be smart enough to pull out their money in stocks after the last two years of positive returns. Somehow I think the answer to that question is "not many".
ReplyDeleteI keep forgetting that most Boomers hadn't saved enough before 2008, never mind now.
@I Can: Who's buying? PPT?
ReplyDeleteI agree with emmy. Next rip gets sold hard as peeps panic and flee this farce of a "market", maybe for good (or least for a long time). Hard to get that trust back, even with a culture this greedy for a quick buck. Some hard lessons need to be learned and re-learned, apparently.
@Thor: The good news is I advised my Dad, who's 75 and not a Boomer to not get into stocks when we were near the OBL top. Thankfully he heeded my advice. Same thing with my wife's 95 year-old grandfather, who recently got out in time before this latest downdraft and has no business being in stocks in this farce of a so-called "market", even if they were dividend-paying.
ReplyDeleteElevator up, escalator down.
ReplyDelete