No Herds Update

I was hoping to give a herds update with a positive view, but after reviewing the charts, there’s nothing I can recommend except to wait for the downtrend to break.

Or short the market...

Rock’s been short since the handle formed in the S&P cup-and-handle on the 25th, and I’ve given a comment identifying weakness possibilities.

From a relative strength point of view, you could hide in IAU or GLD. They look like the only thing that “looks like up to me”. There are a few others, like MOS, the foods, and the oils that have good relative strength, but there is no herd on my herd list that is trading up (except golds).

Yesterday, we broke below the cup low of 1261 we got on 6/19. I ws only able to trade the morning pop, and did well, but I sure wish I was around in the afternoon to take the plunge on the short side. Remember, if you’re playing the short side, everybody is against you, so be very very careful.

I have 2 other comments to make. First, the Bernank is brilliant. He has lowered the dollar’s value so our market went up nearing the point we were at before the Great Capitualization of 2008. But, no matter how he played QE2, he couldn’t stop the Great European Weakness. Good try, Bernank. And it’s almost funny, so many people don’t get it. The president of Brazil said he was waiting for Obama to ask him for a loan. Clueless.

The second comment is that countries like Greece, who are about to default, are equally brilliant. They have figured out how to tax other countries and their people for things they don’t have money of their own to buy. The ultimate use of OPM. And, like the US, whose spending cuts amount to a mere pittance, the only ones who will suffer are not the ones making the profits, but the talking heads: the incumbent politicians.

I wish I could give an update for when I think the market will turn, like Dastro, but I can’t. I just let the market tell me by the price and volume action. When the trend changes, I’ll change. In my investment accounts I’ve been stopped out and simply went into GLD and IAU. So they’re doing OK, not great. In my trading account, I’m just following the short-term trend, so it too is doing well. It’s doing much better now that I don’t stay in overnight.

So to summarize, I’ve moved into the golds, I’m selling the rips, and I’m watching the chemicals and foods for signs of a turn.