Also, if anyone wants, I can publish the entire report, or if there’s some herd you’d like to know about WRT relative strength, I can comment that one. Again, relative strength of a stock is being measured against the S&P. So a RS of 2% means that ticker is better than the S&P by 2%, cumulative over the last 5 days.
This report is for a 5 day trading period. Because of the volatility of the market, it doesn’t make much sense to go beyond the current down cycle (or for other reports, up cycles). It doesn’t look like we’ll see the end of this down cycle anytime soon, but I see Bloomberg talking heads constantly talk about an upswing and Santa Rally. Just play the tape. If you want to short, look at the biggest losers in the herd report.
One more word of advice: if you play any of the leveraged ETFs like VXX or SKF or SDS or QLD, make sure you exit after the current trend is done. The math works against you in the event of a turn-around. If you don’t understand this, I’ll put together another post to show the math.
So here’s the report in the form “ticker, relative strength, slope”
The top performers:
XME 4% rising
BBH 3.3% rising
XOP 3% rising
$DJTATO 2% rising
$DJTCNS 2% rising
IBB 2% falling
KOL 2% rising
GLD 1.8% flat
IHE 1.6 falling
SLX 1.6% rising
The worst performers:
SLV –4% flat
$SOX.X -3.4% falling
IRET –2.6% falling
$BKX –2% flat
KBE –1.8% falling
DBA –1.7% falling
IAK –1.3% falling
It is interesting to note that there are 23 sectors with a falling relative strength slope, and 19 with a rising relative strength slope. If they were all valued the same (they aren’t), that would indicate money is flowing out of the market. When I look at the daily SPY, the Money Flow indicator is literally on the bottom, indicating a strong money flow out of the SPY.
The last thing I’d like to present is yesterday’s chart of the number of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average. We have a turnaround in process.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteMCD was up overnight. I get out overnight because since we trade by headlines, I've been hurt by headlines overnight. so far today and yesterday, I've made about 0.40 on a 93.50 investment.
I should move to a trading house that will allow overnight trading, because my volumes are relatively small, I would fit right in.
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteThe reason the government needs to keep the market up is because of retirement funds' investments. They are mostly in equities and in equity funds. When the equities market falls, those retirement funds' value falls, and their disbursements hurt a lot more.
This doesn't relate to Social Security, but does relate to firemen, police, teachers, state and city government workers, and many corporate 401K's.
Blackstone's CEO and founder Schwarzman says european banks contribute 25% of lending to US banks. He didn't say if this was "number of loans" or "value of loans" or if this was "25% of European lending".
ReplyDeleteI find that hard to believe. The Fed's rate is 0 to 0.25%. For a bank to borrow from a European bank, I doubt that rate is lower. It may be the smaller banks who don't have access to the Fed are borrowing from the larger banks, and the rates charged by European banks is lower than the big banks in the US.
He also said that one of the reasons the move by the central banks was made was because US funds wouldn't loan to Europe because of the contagion issue. So this move makes money available to Europe.
It may be that the rules to borrow in Europe are less stringent that in the US. I've seen it said that it's hard to borrow in the US, that money isn't being made available to small businesses and to persons wanting a mortgage.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteTRIN information, easy to understand:
http://www.daytradingit.com/trin.html
TICK information, again easy to understand:
http://www.daytradingit.com/tick.html
Throw out the charts (I kid, I kid).....
ReplyDeleteThe Beranank Put goes global.
The recent news today shouldn't be a surprise when you think about it. TPTB have WAY too much invested in the current path to turn back now. They are going to completely unload the arsenal before this thing goes down. And I mean COMPLETELY. They will spare no expense, even sacrificing a few hundred million austeritized global sheeple in the process. Privatized gains, socialized losses. What better deal could they carve out for themselves since most Sheeple still have no idea how it all works and how we got from point A to point Z.
ReplyDeleteSo glad I don't short this market anymore. They are going to blow another bubble, consequences be damned.
ReplyDeletere Manny and charts: talking about which:p => Resistance around 1239 may stop the rally. We've also got a weekly down trendline right above that point.
ReplyDelete@Rock: which side are you at this point? your "possible turnaround" statement makes me think you're more likely to trade on the long side ?
@WolfStreet
ReplyDeleteI don't play overnight. I was trading long yesterday and today, going with the turnaround shown by the Stockcharts.com chart. I was in short over the weekend, but Monday fixed that. I stayed short and almost recovered Monday, but was out overnight.
Yes, I'm playing the tape long now. Pretty flat today, though. Like I told ICan, I'm up a tiny tiny amount. Can't feed my son on that, though......
Rock's 4 rules:
1. Do not trade when you are away.
2. Do not trade overnight.
3. Do not be in a trade on earnings.
4. Do not buy at high Stochastics or MACD. Ever.
Bought some GLD yesterday. Feels good, man.
ReplyDeleteNot buying this rally either when the only way mkt goes up is when CBs print.
ReplyDeleteNo clear trend.
ICan
@Rock, thks. I definitely agree with rule 3, been there too.
ReplyDeleteAbout rule 4 well.. can be ok sometimes (as is selling when stochastics or MACD are in the low range). But that's something to ponder seriously.
@Emmy: well done. ;)
@emmy: I've been hanging onto my commodities ETF's for a while now in anticipation of these constant moves by TPTB that gooses them. Nibbling on them on the dips too.
ReplyDelete@emmanuel117
ReplyDeleteGood move. Looks like some resistance around 171-174 area, quite a lot of volume around Aug 8, but if it breaks that, look out around 183, could be a triple top there.
The way they're going to be printing money (see Mannwich's comment above) gold may fall with respect to equities. Before today's bump, they were at 1.8% better, but with today's equity thump, it's fallen to -1.2%. (again measured over the short term 5 days). Over the last 20 days, GLD is exactly flat to the S&P, but with a very minor downslope.
Good luck!
@Mutt(from previous thread)
ReplyDeleteWe all pay for Fed's actions, such as today's(via expensive commodities). And who gets rescued? European banks and inturn probably Wall St.
ICan
S&P 1240(mid Nov. triangle breakdown)-resistence.
ReplyDeleteThere's a rumor that one major european bank would have gone under last night without this arrangement. How can that be? If the bank borrowed dollars, and the Euro goes down, they will have to pay more euros to pay the loan.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting: the only thing this did was that it made it easier for foreign banks to purchase (swap cash) for dollar denominated assets.
Ok think about it. Why would the Eurozone want to hold dollar denominated assets? Could it be that the dollar will strengthen, and the Euro will weaken?
Now here's one more twist. Could be the US is planning to screw those germans. If the dollar denominated asset they purchase is treasuries, and the US economy is recovering (maybe picking up speed, we'll see this week's job numbers) then the price of treasuries will fall. Those that hold treasuries will be screwed.
This move could be a pretty smart one by Bernank.
Mannwich, watch your treasuries stops!
Who needs the ECB to backstop Europe when the world has the Fed to do it?
ReplyDeleteThe Bernank = the most powerful man in the world.
And it's not even a contest. Even though he's merely doing the bidding of his elite masters.
I did my homework. The foreign banks can swap $$ from the Fed at 50 basis points (0.5%). US banks can borrow from the fed at 75 basis point (0.75%). Granted it's not apples-for-apples comparison because the Fed would hold foreign currency. However, we (the taxpayer) are on the hook for any lowering of the value of the foreign currency above and beyond 50 basis points.
ReplyDeletefrom
https://www.google.com/finance?hl=en&biw=1061&bih=707&q=CURRENCY:EURUSD&ei=jI7WTuKiGYjZiAKo9NyhDA&sa=X&oi=currency_onebox&ct=currency_onebox_chart&resnum=4&sqi=2&ved=0CEQQ5QYwAw
the euro has lost 500 basis points since Nov. 4. This means we as a country have lost 4.5% on everything that Europe swapped with us on Nov 4. Ok, figure a linear volume swap, so we've lost 2.25% since Nov 4.
Mannwich is right. We're going to pay for the European refinance. Unless we see European GDP increase at a dramatic rate, outstripping US GDP, we'll be paying a lot.
I saw a chart that showed German GDP growth is greater than the US GDP growth (percentage). But I don't know about the outher countries, I think it's doubtful that PIIGS GDP growth outstrips the US.
They're saying on TV that this increases liquidity. That's bullshit. This increases the US Taxpayer's exposure to European sovereign debt. The funds were unwilling to loan, so the Fed stepped in. Now Europe has nothing to fear.
@Rock(3:25)
ReplyDeleteNow you'r getting mad...er angry!
ICan
Bingo Rock. I was out and about when that news broke and had to shake my head.
ReplyDeletePrivatized gains for them, real risk and subsequent austerity for the global sheeple.
Everything gamed for them to win all the time, and win big. At our expense. How long can it go on?
But then we must never EVER raise taxes on those fortunate ones who are making out like bandits under this current arrangement. Nooooo sirreeee Bobby. Wake the fuck up Sheeple. You (we) are being had. Big time.
WOlfie - foe you! ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/30/carrier-iq-trevor-eckhart_n_1120727.html
A security researcher has posted a video detailing hidden software installed on smart phones that logs numerous details about users' activities.
In a 17-minute video posted Monday on YouTube, Trevor Eckhart shows how the software – known as Carrier IQ – logs every text message, Google search and phone number typed on a wide variety of smart phones - including HTC, Blackberry, Nokia and others - and reports them to the mobile phone carrier.
The application, which is labeled on Eckhart’s HTC smartphone as "HTC IQ Agent," also logs the URL of websites searched on the phone, even if the user intends to encrypt that data using a URL that begins with "HTTPS," Eckhart said.
so by "providing liquidity" to "The World" does that mean we're basically coming to the EU's rescue? Are we on the hook for any of this if the shit hits the fan? I haven't had the time today to read NC or TBP or the other blogs to see whether this even has a possibility of working.
ReplyDeleteEuropeans should sell their own assets first.
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened those Greek Islands?
I can't help but point out, that all of this is "in support of easy credit" Why not just work on a way to move AWAY from debt in the first place? Is it that hard?
ReplyDeleteSome good comments over here at NC:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/central-banks-announce-coordinated-liquidity-effort-to-alleviate-euromess.html
Exactly Thor! That's exactly what Steve Keen proposes. A TRUE bailout for everyone and then hit the giant "reset" button.
ReplyDeleteProblem is the elites get hit hard if that happens. They have too much invested in the current system to not go down without doing everything in their power to keep extending it, while buying the time to allow a slow slide and imposed austerity on the rest of us to ultimately pay for it. That's been the plan all along. The arrogance is breathtaking in thinking that people won't notice. Enough ARE noticing and more will continue to notice over time.
And the global elites are all colluding to make this happen. Isn't that obvious by now? Borders and countries no longer really matter. Not yet anyway.
ReplyDeleteICan - I have been pissed for some time now.
ReplyDeleteNo matter how you slice it or what color you choose to paint it this is out right theft and it is every U.S. citizen along with Canadians and Europeans that are being stolen from .
Someone said TARP had something like 50 to 1 public support against it, yet congress shoved it through anyway.
As you well know this made us tax payers responsible for the banks debts. Well Bernanke just did the same thing for EU that he did for the banks, however this time he did not even consider congressional approval.
The man is the worst traitor in the history of the United States.
There is no way this can or will end well.
So you can be ICan and I will be IPissed.
Mangy Mutt
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteSee Trader Mark's post. "What the heck did this morning's news means". Comments are worth reading too.
BOC, BOE, BOJ and SNB were also involved.
Now Cdn Finance Min. say,"Europe should fight its crisis with its own money" - Reuters Canada. Too late ain't it.
ICan
Manny - Yeah, and less and less interested in even trying to hide what they are doing from the masses. This is not going to work out well for us, not at all. Forget about a lost decade, if we keep this up, we'll have two or three like Japan.
ReplyDeleteI keep sayin' though, Americans are way too violent a people to sit back and take it forever. I think the average Joe has figured out fairly quickly what the Tea Party was really about. Sadly, it looks like a lot of the damn Occupy movements in the cities were taken over by drug addicts and homeless people. I know that here in LA, they (members of the Occupy LA movement) that toward the end, more than half the people down there were homeless and drug addicts looking for free food.
I know that, in and of itself, say something about our society, but unfortunately, I think that's all most of The Sheeple are going to see, whether the goals of the movement were something they agree with or not. Maybe now that they're all getting evicted, the movement will mature. . .
@Thor . ..lol. These are just lines after all.
ReplyDeletere Thor: didn't see the link. I thought you were referring to my "call" being proved wrong already.
ReplyDeleteSo re the "rootkit": will check my phone, but it seems only American phones are affected. That's a shame. .. good catch.
Wolfie - just teasing you ;-) I'm sure Apple has something very similar, they're just better at hiding it. . . .for now.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, today's monster really reminds me a lot of '08 as well. These big moves are clearly NOT indicative of a "healthy market", whatever that animal even looks like at this point.
ReplyDelete@Mutt,
ReplyDelete1 IPissed won't do!
@Ican:
ReplyDeleteIf Steve were still here, he could figure out how to monitize the iPissed.
I mean, he did a great job on the iPood.
Actually, thinking about it, a girl's necklace could be made.....nah. It'd be over in less than a minute.
ReplyDeleteUnless I could figure a way to work enlarged prostrate in......
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@ICan:
ReplyDeleteActually the reason I'm mad is I can't figure out their angle. There must be one, and why can't I get it?
Try as I might, I can't figure out why we didn't just go invade greece and Italy and fix their problem for them, like we did Iraq and Afganistan.
I mean, they all *do* have weapons of mass destruction.
I meant Grease.
ReplyDeleteRemember a long time ago, we posted the story about the locusts? At yours and my door?
ReplyDeleteI always thought the locusts could be equated to the Chinese, or more generally to mainland Asians. But, once again, Rock could be wrong.
Most of Europe has the bomb.
They could be the locusts.
Germans are actually happy to see lower Euro. Not in a hurry to fix the "problem".
ReplyDelete"German economy strenthens amid Europe's gloom" -www.theglobeandmail.com
Manufacturing sector booming, retail sales rising amid weakening Euro.
ICan
"Obama's morbid fear of EU meltdown" -ft.com
ReplyDeleteEU crisis could hurt his re-election bid.
A very nice W formation on the SPY with the right side of the W higher. If we break out over around 128.50 or so, we'll be up up and away.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the volume in this area, and I don't see much commitment to that value, plus the huge volatility over the time from Oct. 25 to Nov. 15, I don't see any one particular value holding any special "magic" to hold us back.
Looking at various technical indicators, it seems to me that this run up will break the 128 before we get a pullback.
Kroger's forcast is up about 10% for EPS for the rest of their year.
"Will see" the job numbers. I stayed in long overnight (violating rule 2) with the indicators showing us we're going higher.
Headlines, Ho!
By Cynthia Lin
ReplyDeleteOf DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--
"Treasury prices stuck at session lows early Thursday in New York even though the U.S. reported an unexpected rise in the number of workers filing for jobless benefits last week."
"The disappointing economic reading comes ahead of Friday's closely watched monthly employment report, but failed to inspire buyers to return to the safety of U.S. government debt."
Maybe my feelings about jobless claims are wrong, and despite ADP numbers, we'll be higher.
"Will see". I think I'm staying long.
Kohl's same store sales is down. I never shop Kohl's, myself. Actually, as I lose the weight I gained in Sing, I have more and more clothes available to me, so I don't need new....
This morning's must-read. Need more peeps like this stepping up. Only the can we truly "recover" from this debacle.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/opinion/kristof-a-banker-speaks-with-regret.html
Good article. Shows there are good apples in the barrel, as well.
ReplyDeleteI think it was Mannwich who commented that we worker bees do what we're told by our bosses, no matter what.
Actually, "The Corporation" indicates that as well, without coming right out and saying it.
From DJ newswires:
"NYSE Says Program Trading Averaged 33.1% Of NYSE Volume During Nov 21-25 >NYX"
I looked at the volume over those days, and it was the "normal light" volume we're seeing lately, except for the half-day Friday, which was extremely light. Anyway, it's nice to know your enemy is 1/3 algos. This is *not* the HFT's, but rather the "program traders".
Bloomberg had Pimco's CEO on a vignette. He talked about the plan for the Eurozone. Currently, the plan includes a 10% haircut on Italian bonds, and a 30% haircut on Spanish bonds. We already know about the 50% (and maybe 80%) haircut on Greek bonds.
ReplyDeleteThis means that Eurozone banks are insolvent. It is likely they will need to be recapitalized, or will be nationalized which will wipe out their equity value.
This will create a huge spike in Euro/USD swaps, because the value of the Euro will immediately be questioned, and will likely fall. The USD will strengthen a lot, temporarily. It will of course go back down because as the recapitalization is worked through, the value of the Euro will rise again.
When this happens, there will be an overnight huge spike down in the market. If you have dry powder, and if you have the nerve, that will be the point to go "all in". And ride any additional downtrend for the eventual upturn. It is likely to hurt a lot, but there's no effective plan to time the market.
All my opinions. I will of course trade the tape.
AUD/JPy,
ReplyDeleteAUD/USD both down. China PMI was down.
So Commods down. Oil& gold.
But some sectors in US looking good?
Also, will the Ecb not cut rates? If so, Euro should be down.
ICan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteYou're right. Commodities down today, but relative strength to the S&P looks pretty good. XME is on a retrace today, but it's relative strength to the S&P is 6%.
It may be commodities lead us out of this financial mess?
Ford, TM, numbers are in. Having the best month of the year.
ReplyDeleteI think we predicted that, didn't we? Didn't we say apparel and autos would be the best performers?
"Rosenberg and Sri-Kumar: Eurozone endgame could spur a 2000-point rally in the Dow" - businessinsider.com
ReplyDeleteAll depend on what happens on Dec.9
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI have this from another pretty reputable source as well.
I haven't thought through the process on how it could happen, but I'll contact my financial observers in Sing and see if I can get any details.
A 2000 point rally, heck that sounds like quite a party, until Wendsdays 500 point rally I would have thought it next to impossible to squeeze 2000 more points out, not so unsure now.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something or does a 2000 point rally really and honestly make things better some how?
Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteBuilds confidence.
Builds retirement funds and permits some diversification there.
Since I'm 3 positions long now, helps my bottom line.
EUR?USD is red.
ReplyDeleteRisk assets along with DXY are green.
So U.S. growth story is being bought!
ICan
Move your stops tight, the president's about to speak.
ReplyDeleteYou know the drill, the market typically falls after he makes a press announcement.
Can that stuff get over 1261?
ReplyDelete"Franco-German Push for Busget Policing Meets Resistence"-bloomberg.com
ReplyDeleteThe PIIGS want free lunch! No strings attached.
Yesterday Bloomberg had a vignette on a couple of shipbuilders who're losing money--nobody wants to buy the ships. Here's why:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gfmag.com/latestnews/latest-news-old.html?newsid=1.2083056E7
With international trade down, and extra ships, the locusts will find it easier to get to my door.......
And yes, the president spoke, and I'm stopped out. Sigh.
ReplyDeleteAnd the other bad news on the horizon is that the IMF says they need more money to solve the Eurozone problem. The US is the largest contributor to the IMF, and the republicans are moving to halt more cash going to the IMF for distribution to the Eurozone.
ReplyDeleteAt least Bernank's swaps gets their cash, and we're only liable for the cash depreciation. If we give money to the IMF we stand to lose it all or at least the bond haircut value and we get nothing but a piece of paper for security.
I realize that a European recession will affect us here, and frankly I believe Europe's already in recession, and if it weren't we'd see even better numbers here. But I don't think it's right to just hand over money. I think we should get some collateral for it. Maybe those beautiful Greek islands that will let us build a huge naval base to support the mideast efforts.
I've been buying the dips and selling the blips, and have been doing quite well, but I have a bad feeling about this weekend, and I will be out for sure by the end of the day. No longing over the weekend for me!
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteThat rally's fizzling out, it seems.
LIFO - Last-in-first-out.
John Corzine was subpoenaed to go before the US House Agriculture committee investing MF Global.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-02/corzine-subpoenaed-by-house-panel-for-mf-global-hearing.html
I just wonder why Agriculture is involved.
Does MF stand for Massey Furgeson? Or does it stand for what I always thought it stood for?
I'll bet Ol Mutt replies to this question.....
That's "investigating", not "investing"
ReplyDeleteRock - MF Global took a Massive Fork and stuck it in the accounts.
ReplyDeleteOr did you mean the OTHER MFers
Mutt
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteRE: your 3:00
You've probably read Peter Brandt's thanksgiving post, but if not, here it is:
http://peterlbrandt.com/happy-thanksgiving-the-dow-could-be-going-to-4000/
The fan pattern is broken with this week's liquidity provisions by the centeral banks. I'll put up a post this weekend with the chart. The 2000 point rally is based on the liquidity which should move up Eurozone markets and US markets, and the broken patterns (see the broken H&S pattern on the SPY). I'm expecting a retrace to some fibo level as the liquidity gets sorted out, but then a move higher as the liquidity comes into play. I'm guessing downward pressure next week with a strong Santa Rally after the liquidity starts deploying.
But again, that's my opinion. I move with the charts, what is it, "sting like a bee", or somesuch nonsense?
Rock - I will be interested to see your 2000 point chart and understand the research better.
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Be Interested:
ReplyDeleteSee the next post.