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Monday, June 20, 2011

Manny Mondays: Foreclosure Backlog "Extend & Pretend"

Morning all! As I've stated many times, I believe the deteriorating housing market continues to be the elephant in the room that most of our leaders are ignoring at their (and our) peril because it will continue to serve as a drag on the economy, with the possibility that we get pulled into double dip recession. Therefore, this eyebrow-raising article in the Sunday NY Times caught my attention over the weekend. It asserts that at the current pace of foreclosures in New York, it will take 62 years to repossess the 213,000 homes now in serious default or foreclosure.

Here a few more key excerpts from the article.

Clearing the pipeline in New Jersey, which like New York handles foreclosures through the courts, would take 49 years. In Florida, Massachusetts and Illinois, it would take a decade.

In the 27 states where the courts play no role in foreclosures, the pace is much more brisk — three years in California, two years in Nevada and Colorado — but the dynamic is the same: the foreclosure system is bogged down by the volume of cases, borrowers are fighting to keep their houses and many lenders seem to be in no hurry to add repossessed houses to their books.

“If you were in foreclosure four years ago, you were biting your nails, asking yourself, ‘When is the sheriff going to show up and put me on the street?’ ” said Herb Blecher, an LPS senior vice president. “Now you’re probably not losing any sleep.”


Go read the whole thing here - Backlog of Cases Gives a Reprieve on Foreclosures

Meanwhile, Yves Smith over at Naked Capitalism offers a rebuttal questioning the validity of the research in the NY Times article that's also a must-read. Go check it out - More Dubious Research: “It Would Take 62 Years in New York to Repossess the Homes in Severe Default or Foreclosure”.

Either way, this is clearly a major problem that's not going away any time soon.

61 comments:

  1. @Mannwich:

    I really got a kick out of the comment that people were renting out foreclosed homes!

    That, I would think, is fraud on top of fraud. Buy a home, 0 down, put it into a corporation, rent it out, take the profits, never pay the mortgage, the corporation gets prosecuted years later when the president can no longer be found, having retired in Belize.

    Amazing. Why didn't I think of that?

    I thought about coming back to the states to buy a house, but actually, buying a house now in a depressed area does not make sense. I doubt the paperwork can ever in one human's lifetime, be verified as correct.

    We have created a paperwork nightmare.

    I financed 2 houses last year. I couldn't believe the volume of paperwork that Wells Fargo required. Because of the volume, I'm thinking some of it could easily have been forged, because it's doubtful they will check it all (takes too much manpower-time).

    Brings up "See No Forest". The Chinese people absolutely love to gamble. You would not believe the Sands here, it's packed with locals who have to pay (I think) around $50 just to get in. So if the US borrowers were gamblers, like the "See No Forest" execs, think what the mortgage mess would look like then!

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  2. Rock - I have the paperwork for the house my mother bought in 1976, a small packet. My grandparents used to say that when they were buying property in the 50's, there were five pages you had to sign. That's it.

    All that paperwork was caused by one thing and one thing only. Fees.

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  3. Rock - When you make it back to the states do not worry about buying a house, just let me know what your requirements are and I will have my newly formed corporation find you a very nice rental property at a very reasonable price.

    Plus it will come with a case of "Quality Wine"

    Mangy Mutt

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  4. Jumping Through HoopsJune 20, 2011 at 1:39 AM

    Thor - Until recently my wife and I had active Realtor Licenses (They are on ice now)

    It was amazing at the amount of paper work that was required to make the sale on a house and here in WA St the final document signing could take over an hour.

    But if you want to know something really silly as much paper work as there was, being an illegal allien didn't even slow down the process.

    Mutt

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  5. Actually, I may be showing my spots, but I do like the flavor of the 2-buck-chuck merlot.

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  6. 211 - Steel ReserveJune 20, 2011 at 2:31 AM

    Rock - On the reservation, it was all about cheap wine and beer with a high alcohol content.

    Sure you could always get Budweiser or Coronas, but the biggest seller seemed to be a cheap ass, gross tasting beer called Steel Reserve 211.

    Oh man that stuff was nasty tasting.

    Two Buck Chuck is good compared to that :)

    Mutt

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  7. Manny,

    After reading both articles, I think you should reverse the order! Yves nails it, as usual.

    Plus the comments at NC reveal that the author of the NYT piece is not exactly the most qualified to write such an inflammatory article.

    The mortgage mess is really terrible but the NYT article serves no purpose other than to create even more anxiety and problems.

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  8. @Denise: I totally agree. As usual, it's the blogger who gets it right. Yves is one of the best out there, if you ask me. Pulls no punches in any direction.

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  9. Morning folks!

    Rock, I am a two buck chuck kinda guy, I prefer the cab though.

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  10. @Denise: That was MY call - "The OBL Top", which just barely eclipsed my previous "Manny Top" call!

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  11. Manny,

    I forgot, but yes, you made that call!

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  12. This Greek tragedy drama is just unreal. They can't come to a real viable solution here becuase there really isn't one outside of some very major creditors (the banks) taking some big haircuts on their exposure to Greece, so they're trying to find any solution that puts all of the sacrifice on others, namely the Greek or even global Sheeple. Heaven forbid the real culprits who caused this mess ever pay the (or any) price for their actions. The real entitlement class in action.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/morning-greece-deal-postponed.html

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  13. More on the Greek tragedy:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/eurozone-brinksmanship-ministers-walk-back-greek-rollover-commitment-demand-austerity-measures-first.html

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  14. I wonder if Benny and the Fed will covertly "bail out" the global banks here yet again? Why not? We're all connected now whether we like it or not and the Fed can't have it's "efforts" all go for naught because of something overseas rippling over here. Interesting that France, by far has the biggest exposure to Greece, which explains why they don't want to have the creditors take any haircuts.

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  15. But it are THESE people who certainly need even more tax breaks to "get the economy moving again". Yeah, right, sure thing. Who's economy are they talking about?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/with-executive-pay-rich-pull-away-from-rest-of-america/2011/06/13/AGKG9jaH_story.html

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  16. Manny,

    What I want to know is who is exactly holding the Greek debt. The generic "banks" is not really a full explanation.

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  17. Greece needs to exit the Euro so it can devalue it's currency to the point where it can grow again.

    Lots of pain in that solution, but it is Greece's debt, after all.

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  18. Exactly Denise. Let's face it though. I think we know that is the real reason for all of this back and forth. Must protect the real holders of Greek debt at all costs, even to the greater society at large.

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  19. Now this is interesting:

    Who Owns Greek Government Debt and Why is Restructuring Not So Easy?

    Holders of Greek Government Bonds and debt, in billion EUR
    Greek Banks 56
    Other European Banks 50
    ECB (direct holdings, nominal value) 50
    Central Bank of Greece 10
    Greek Social securities/other government 30
    Other Investors 120
    Total Government Bonds 260
    + EU/IMF loans already disbursed 53
    Total debt 310

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  20. I think that Greece leaving the Euro is the only real solution here. Problem is, it could lead to others leaving, which would break up the Euro altogether, and that would be very painful for Europe and the rest of the world and most painful on the elites who have, by far, the biggest stake in keeping things together. At least in the short term anyway.

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  21. Other investors own 120 billion Euro, almost half of the amount of the debt.

    Who are those other investors? Billionaires? Sovereign wealth funds?

    Is this who the EU is protecting?

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  22. Perhaps I am naive or uninformed, but I cannot help thinking that the "others" are putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the EU (Germany) not to devalue their holdings.

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  23. Small rally attempt, but it is meaningless until it takes out Friday's highs.

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  24. I think it's a bit of "all of the above", Denise.

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  25. @Mannwich:

    RIMM popped just now. Maybe time to re-enter short. I did.

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  26. @Thor

    You're right. The Cab is good. Just decant it for an hour or two, and slightly chill.

    The Merlot doesn't need the chill, but the decant does make it better.

    I wonder why decanting is so important. When I was in college, wine was decanted for about 11 seconds. Now, I can even wait an hour. Or less.

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  27. Interesting, Rock. Still kicking myself just a smidgeon on that one. I get the sense that RIMM is in for a long, slow slide into the single digits or trash bin where the likes of Nokia and Motorola now reside.

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  28. Part of me wonders if it's really the U.S. who is most exposed to Greece. Would that surprise anyone here?

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  29. @Mannwich:

    wasnt't that an Elton John tune? Benny and the fed.

    I think if it wasn't we could do a pretty good fake.

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  30. If you read the article, it talks about the derivatives that have been issued protecting the players from a chance of default. Who is the counter party to those derivatives?

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  31. @Dss

    I'll bet dollars to donuts the Fed and the Window is a big creditor to Greece, which is why timmy's views carry so much weight over there.

    We'll see, once the time limit's up and Bloomberg can get the data.

    "does reprofiling of the debt constitute a default? I'm not sure". from Hans Humes.

    He's not sure? How can these financiers be so stupid? If you can't pay, you can't pay. That's either default, or De-Fault. Either way, you can't pay.

    Now, how serious is it that Greece can't pay? IMHO, not so serious. They haven't paid since they lost the olympics in 217BC and couldn't pay the hotel bill. Nothing's changed.

    When a whole bunch of European nations can't pay, or when the US can't pay, or when China can't pay, well then, we've got a really serious problem. But Greece? Who cares except the media that needs time fillers?

    2 Trillion if you add PIIGS together. G by itself is nothing.

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  32. @Dss:

    I wonder if the counter party is GS. I wish I knew how to read and play options, I'd love to understand what GS is doing.

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  33. I would think that GS might have been an issuer,(middleman) not a true counter party. And if they did hold some of the derivatives they would have hedged them.

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  34. What a surprise, SCOTUS rules in favor of the big corporate machine. Again. After all, corporations are "people" too.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/21/business/21bizcourt.html?_r=1&hp

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  35. @Rock: Yep, "Benny and the Jets"......but insert "Fed".

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  36. @Denise: Goldman, perhaps? Most of Wall Street? It's truly amazing that this CDS nonsense is STILL going on after the crisis we've been through and are still living through.

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  37. This is a good read on delusional libertarianism. Is that redundant? Check it out.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2297019/pagenum/all/#p2

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  38. Biz picking up for my little start-up, by the way. On the doorstep of landing a major customer right in my back yard here in MN. Good stuff.

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  39. Busy busy day, hope I'm not missing much!

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  40. Manny - Excellent article! Can't wait to read it!

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  41. Manny,

    Congrats! Hope you land that customer.

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  42. Manny - and a quote from my best friend who's reading the article now.

    "I will say if social compassion comes at too high a price for the libertarians personal freedom, they're free to drop out of society, we don't need you"

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  43. @Mannwich

    Hope you land the customer. And more. And hire more people.

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  44. Thanks, Denise and Rock. Me too. Then I can ditch some of the more mundane, less enjoyable, duties of my job and delegate them to someone else so that I can focus on bigger and more strategic things to help grow this thing.

    Also, if we get a few more of these bigger accounts, we could make a better case for raising some outside funds so that we can make some really big leaps as a biz. Tough to do when inching forward like we've been doing.

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  45. Great quote, Thor. "Go Galt" and the rest of us will happily wave "bye-bye". You will be replaced and not missed.

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  46. And we wonder why salaries are stagnating for the rank and file. Check this out. Obviously these people don't have Manny as an advisor when negotiating pay raises. They should call me. I'll help 'em out, gladly, for a fee, of course. My best negotiations student is my own wife and she can give a good reference for me on this front. ;-)

    According to a new survey, when presented with a promotion, more than half of employees would be willing to say, “Forget the king’s ransom; just call me King.” The survey, conducted by OfficeTeam, reveals that 55% of workers would accept a promotion that didn’t include a pay raise.

    http://ow.ly/5maY4

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  47. If it were up to me, I'd let them keep the titles and just pay me the dough. I don't get the obsession with useless titles. All sizzle, but no steak (da money).

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  48. Manny - hah, you and I are a lot alike. I was just made to change my title a month ago. I've been promoted twice but have always refused to change the title. They mean nothing to me personally, nothing outside this office, and nothing in the grand scheme of things.

    My grandmother gave me some of the best career advice ever not long after my mother died; "When you're old, you don't look back on your life and think about how you were a great accountant or CPA, and if you do, you haven't lived a very fulfilling life"

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  49. And congratulations btw! Sheesh, that's three times I missed that now :-(

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  50. So true, Thor. So true. Your grandmother sounds like she was very wise. And thanks a lot. However, the looming gov't shutdown could put a crimp in my landing the account. Let's hope that saner heads prevail on that front.

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  51. I had such a shitty day I did something I very rarely ever do. Retail Therapy. I broke down and bought an iPad.

    The store was mobbed, and people were walking out with bags of stuff.

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  52. Speaking of - you know what I find funny? Are the Apple haters. What's that about? Hating on a company because they think it's "cool"? It's an American company designing products that people all over the world want to buy. It's hugely successful, builds the best products, with beautiful design and form, it makes tons of money, and it's stock has done spectacularly. And people want to run around calling people Fanboys?

    Manny, what was that we were saying about Going Galt?

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  53. OMG - Manny that's actually brilliant if you really think about. We should figure out how to start a movement to get the "Captains of Industry" to go Galt! Please! :-)

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  54. The packaging on this thing is beautiful. There's almost nothing to it, and you get three small pages inside, two stickers, the iPad quick sheet, and the micro thin Product Information pamphlet. Everything else is online. Less paper wasted.

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  55. Thor,

    My sister and brother-in-law just bought my four year old nephew an iPad. You know, because a kid needs to have his own tablet computer. Too funny. I am not going to comment on the state of their finances, except to say nothing, because if you cannot find something nice to say, don't say anything at all.

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  56. iPad, iPhone, iTunes - I everythingJune 21, 2011 at 1:47 AM

    Denise - It is cool that your nephew got an iPad.

    For Mother's Day I got my wife an iRon - Now she says I can do my own damn laundry.

    I guess iRons are not as good of gifts as iPads

    Mangy Mutt

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  57. Mutt,

    We don't have an iPhone, iPad, or ianything. I will really feel old when the kid will be able to rule the world from his iPad and I am stuck with 20th century technology.

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