Hello everybody,
Well I'm narrowing the list of stocks to pay attention to from all the ones that I follow now.
I mentioned APKT VRSN DECK ACTG to the donside as good candidates.Now the market is moving up so I'll check how they fare, in order to confront their astrological weakness with the reality of the price action.
TXRH is on the rise but had in the past 6 months two triple tops so to speak and is close to the high of 2005 so I'll keep an eye on her particularly next week around Thursday and or Friday to see if corrects more heavily or the correction is over and plans to make a new historic high.
On the long side I'm paying attention to JBL HERO MDCO JBLU TSYS MKSI and to my regulars SPPI ACAS BSX I started paying more attention to NVTL which past year mentioned in early Oct that I liked it but wanted to see what would happen in November first. October 26 started dropping and didn't stop until past month.Followed the drop (but not getting short, just watching what kind of personality it has).
And MTW AKAM PMTI appeared under the radar too.
Regarding the s&p 500 still mantains the Thursday 16 as the low and the chances for a puke like I mentioned are getting closer and if it's going to happen should be in the next 3-4 days. Otherwise I'll have to consider Thursday 16 like the weakest point and a failed puke at least a few weeks.
Dan
Addendum
June 28, 2011
I didn't mentioned CSCO just because I forgot but is of course an important candidate in the list too.My apologies.
Dan
Bloomberg is saying be careful of reverse merger companies. Muddy Waters is muddying the waters with the Chinese.
ReplyDeleteRemember I said Chinese like to gamble. They gamble that if they do something wrong, they won't get caught.
On the security side, we're getting better at catching them. And it's amazing.
so stay out of China stocks until we can be sure at least partially the numbers are honest.
Also today, Bloomie reported on what I told you guys about months and months ago: Cisco is moving profits overseas to avoid taxation in the higher taxation countries.
ReplyDeleteCisco ain't the only ones.
But it's legal. and I told you how it's done.
to trade this one, don't look for dividends on companies with huge $$$ in the bank. Look at emerging markets MOM or YOY revenues, and watch the stocks bid up as a result of this data.
Yesterday, Bloomie did an analysis, and came up with the information that everybody in Greece who pays taxes will have to have their taxes increased so they pay 1 month more's taxes.
ReplyDelete(ooh, I read that twice and I still don't understand it...must be too much speaking Chinese here)
I mean, everybody will have to pay one month's salary to the government more than they're paying now.
That's not too bad, I think, to keep your socio-economic structure in place.
Spoken by one who pays more taxes than required....
Rock,
ReplyDeleteConsidering that tax evasion and avoidance in Greece in endemic, some of them might actually be paying taxes at the normal rate.
Dan,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the post. I am following your stocks in my daily scans.
Nice little follow through rally, finally. The real test is to see if it continues. As noted in other places, this could be year end window dressing as well, which used to mean that funds wanted to own more of the previous quarter's winners, but now I think it means that they just want the market up so that their "quarter ended June 30th" numbers look good.
ReplyDeleteAs so many previous winners have backed off with sector rotation, it remains to be seen where they go from here.
ReplyDeleteDan - Thanks for giving us your insight and view point, it will be interesting to see how things play out.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Rock - Regarding Chinese stocks, I always try and avoid things I do not understand and I barely understand the little trading I do in the American Markets.
ReplyDeleteAnd if the American Markets, hide things, mis-construe their data and flat out lie, then how much more can the Chinese get away with?
Mutt
@Dastro:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your picks. I haven't investigated most of them, but here's my initial thoughts:
I'm really nervous about stocks like TSYS and HERO becuse anybody with a 1/4Billion can move the stock easily. Those make me real nervous.
About JBL: their business is heavily into subcontracting PCB layout and design and manufacturing, and manufacturing for the auto industry. As you can see, it went from 11 ->21 (100%, almost) and track's F's performance almost exactly, last Jul-Dec 2010 and Jan 2011. Depending on what you think the auto industry in the US will do, so goes JBL, mostly. They've got a great balance sheet right now. They didn't pull back much during our down-channel for the SPY. I think this could be a good long pick for the coming rally.
Morning all! Anyone notice the housing numbers today? SF is second only to DC. I'd watch that, if we're going to see another bubble, SF is one of the places I'd watch closely for it to start.
ReplyDeleteAthens is burning and the market rallies, gotta love it.
ReplyDeleteGood article over at NC - I'd recommend reading the comments, especially the first one. Does anyone have any input on that? This specifically I hadn't heard before . . . .
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/on-eurozone-budgetary-constraints.html
Thor,
ReplyDeleteThe market has been positioning itself technically to go up since 6/16. Whether Athens, Rome, or London burns doesn't matter.
Thor,
ReplyDeleteIt would not surprise me that regions of the country will do much better than others, SF, NYC, etc. Places like LV, AZ, FL, MI, IL will not take part in that boom.
Just like the rust belt that never recovered from the collapse of the steel and auto industries, other less viable parts of our country will remain almost permanently depressed.
Going back even further, how much of the south has never recovered from the Civil War?
Denise - yes indeed, but if the Austerity vote in Greece doesn't pass I'll be you a quarter that the we'll correct quite a bit, regardless of what the market has been positioning itself for since 6/16 ;-)
ReplyDeleteA market can crash out of nowhere can't it? Or is there always weakening of the internals at all times, regardless of the outside event?
Denise - places like AZ and NV will absolutely recover. Yes, there are massive problems with housing there now, but this is where the boomers are all retiring to because it's so cheap to live. We go to Vegas all the time and yes, housing there is in the dumps, but it's nowhere near the industrial wasteland people back East and the MSM make of it. People will always leave the cold for the warm, it's human nature and is a trend we've been witnessing in this country for the better part of a hundred years now.
ReplyDeleteHow much of the south has recovered from the Civil War? I would say most of it actually, Texas? Memphis? Atlanta? The Triangle?
Thor,
ReplyDeleteI didn't say that AZ and NV are not going to EVER recover, only that if there is a boom starting in SF they are not going to participate. Throw Florida in there for good measure.
At each of the long term and intermediate term bottoms there was terrible news, March of 09, July of 10 (Gulf Oil Spill), March, 2011, nuclear plant, just to new a few of the more recent lows.
ReplyDeleteSo, no, I see more bottoms being made on bad news than tops, in the long term.
Certainly, a market can crash out of no where (flash crash 2010) but for instance in 1987, there were many signs that the market was in trouble, before the crash. Same thing with 2007.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part, these things do not come out of no where.
Denise - Understood.
ReplyDeleteSorry for misunderstanding you - when you talked about parts of the South not coming back since the Civil War in the same conversation . . . . my bad! :-)
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI liked the line in the comment:
If you're not a bank, you're next.
I keep looking at how the media is saying "how are we going to save the bondholders?"
What is so sacred about being a bondholder? You buy a piece of paper in this ponzi scheme, and why should there be so much concern that the paper may be worth half what you paid?
I do not understand the public sector doing price-supports for the private sector.
/rant
Rock - Agreed. All of this is to save the banks. Iceland had it right, f**k the banks. What would Greece look like today if they completely defaulted on their debt? What percentage of Greece's GDP is being spent on interest right now? That money should go to the people, not the banks. The banks have had more than their fair share at this point in time.
ReplyDeleteNow it's time for a commercial.
ReplyDeleteWe have finished the evaluation of the code for a piece of software called "trueCrypt".
It creates an encrypted file which contains a file system. This file system is encrypted and the encryption technologies are selectable when you create the volume.
I would encourage everyone with notebooks create a volume and put all your financial and personal information in that volume.
I would encourage everyone with desktops that think they are safe because they don't leave their desktop in the front seat of their car to do the same. Your desktop is stealable.
Remember I told y'all I was worried about intrusion and attacks on your trading accounts? The easiest attack is to steal your desktop and use it to get in.
TrueCrypt is free and downloadable from
http://www.truecrypt.org/
The filesystem and encryption/decryption code is excellent. These coders know their stuff.
Thanks, Rock. I will pass that on to my husband who does all of our tech stuff.
ReplyDeleteRock - Nice! We use a pretty robust data encryption program here at work. I encrypt my user profile on my Mac as well. Very very important as well, the hackers are getting more and more sophisticated every year.
ReplyDeleteOptions trading in staples is way up.
ReplyDeleteMarket's up, I'd expect options trading in staples to be down.
Hmmmmmm......
Rock - I saw you mention the other day something about coming home, that's for sure now? Congratulations if so! I'll be heading up to The Peninsula on Friday, haven't been there since my grandmother died three years ago! All my friends are complaining about their rents going up (those not in rent controlled buildings up in the city that is). Apparently rents are going up as fast now as they did during the .com boom!
ReplyDeleteThe rally continues. Indices up 1%.
ReplyDeletePooprints. sounds like a ground-floor opportunity to clean up to me!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.abajournal.com/news/article/lawyer_says_condos_suggested_pooprints_dna_program_is_absolutely_ridiculous/
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYep, looks like it's as official as can be. They're even letting me fly commercial! Heaven! Needless to say, at my age, I'm upgrading to FC, where I think they have some single malt.
My son is pissed. He'll have to sell his Ferrari. I've told him that he can put it in the container, and add the anti-pollution stuff in the states, but like all useless sons, he doesn't listen.
When I told my cleaning lady, she wept. That one hurt.
XLE 2.48%
ReplyDeleteXBI 2.37%
XME 2.17%
XLY 1.54%
XLV 1.43%
XLB 1.36%
XLI 1.25%
XLK .97%
XHB .95%
XLU .33%
XLF .20%
XLP .03%
DOW .99%
S&P 1.07%
NDX 1.23%
Rock - We'll we'll certainly be glad to have you back in California :-)
ReplyDeleteRally but the volume is even lighter than yesterday, and yesterday was still below average.
ReplyDeleteDenise - Our Man Bernie was on the floor of the Senate again today, have you read anything about that yet? Good stuff!
ReplyDeleteTodd - I don't think this rally has legs, don't think we'll see it go too far. Of course, I'm almost always wrong . . . so . . . . . :-/
ReplyDeleteBecause we can become emotionally attachted to our things and our things can at times evoke fond memories it can be difficult to part with them.
ReplyDeleteSo I am sure it your son is having a difficult time coming to grips with loosing a thing he values, but it is loosing our friends that matter the most.
Your cleaning lady probably considers you part of the family (Or her part of yours, so losing you is probably not easy on her.
Personally I would rather loose my things then my friends.
Mutt
"I'm almost always wrong . . . so . . . . . :-/ "
ReplyDeleteYup that is why when Thor says go left, I actually turn right.
Just kidding Thor :)
Heck can you imagine if you could be right more then you are wrong, espcially in this market.
Mutt
Todd - I know very little about volume, but it has been my understanding that the trading volume has been fairly light since the begging of our "Recovery"
ReplyDeleteSo when you say the volume is light are you basing it off of volume since 2008 or over all stock martket history?
And like Thor I do not have much faith in this little rally, but who knows maybe it's legs will show some actual streingth.
Thanks
Mutt
I'm saying volume based on the past couple of months. Anything beyond that becomes, meh for me. Roughly 20% less average yesterday. Today closer to 35%.
ReplyDeleteAnother note. I mentioned it takes about a week to undo reaction to the fed statements. Today the gap was closed and it will be a week tomorrow.
Todd - Thanks
ReplyDeleteMutt
Thor,
ReplyDeleteNot sure if this rally has legs or not, but I closed out my long on the close.
Denise - Oh my, and you never close a position lightly . . .
ReplyDeleteThis was a trade and after being under water a few times, I was glad to get out with a nice profit after two big up days in the market.
ReplyDeleteI don't have any idea where it is going from here. But we are still fairly oversold and reached an important resistance level today.
If the market blows through this level to the upside, then we are going to test the 1300-1312 level ES.
Emmie - what's going on down in Florida! You guys seem to have Wisconsin beat for the crazies running the show. Do you think that's going to have any effect on '12?
ReplyDeleteHopium:
ReplyDeleteEarnings season,
End of Quarter,
Greeks will agree to austerity.
Range bound market. Negative int. rates. If bankers aren't stealing one's savings then inflation will.
Ican
Foxes in a hen house.
ReplyDelete"Top Kabul banker flees to U.S.". http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110629/main4/htm#1
"Kabul: Afghanistan's central bank governor, Abdul Qadeir Fitrat, who is alleged to have played a role in the failure of the Kabul bank, the nation's largest private lender has fled the country(currently in the U.S.)...The embezzlement at the Kabul bank almost lead to the collapse of the bank last year...Made HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dollars of inappropriate loans...".
He's saying his life is in danger as the crooks are Karzai's close associates.
Wasn't Karzai's brother, involved with the Kabul bank and the U.S. had to bail them out too?
And some oung Canadians lost lives for some *******.
ICan
Greece debt issues will not be resolved as is.
ReplyDeleteEither Greece defaults and leave the Euro or bond holders take some haircut.
ICan
And 1295.97 is the 38.2% fib retracement.
ReplyDeleteICan,
ReplyDeleteI thought that the bond holders were going to take a 50% haircut, more or less in the restructuring of the debt.
They will do everything possible to stop a Greek default, so restructuring is the only way to go. Unless they are looking to create a financial panic.
If Greece or anyone else leaves the Euro, it will have to be done in such a manner as to not create an economic meltdown. If Greece will not or cannot get it's house in order, institute reforms, collect taxes, etc, then they will be forced to do what the EU and the ECB says they must do.
They will work things out, no matter what.
@dss,
ReplyDeleteI really appreciate you thoughts on the market, along with all the posters.
Summer is busy time for me.
ICan
dss(10:05),
ReplyDeleteMarket watch this week were saying Greece is preparing to sell some assets including some prime r/e. I wonder if China will be buyer? Anchor ships in Europe? Wonder if EU or U.S. will allow that?
Doesn't matter what happens, it will be the little guy who will pay dearly. The rich who benefitted dearly from the largess will now buy state assets with the money they stole(tax evasion/corruption etc.). Transfer of wealth.
ICan
ICan,
ReplyDeleteThanks.
It will be the same transfer of wealth that has been here in the states, Chicago sold it's parking meters and the SkyWay. Indiana sold it's tollroad. Etc. Privatizing assets goes one way, into the pockets of those who can pay, and the problem is that these inflows of cash only balance the budget for a year or so in America. Greece owes so much that it will have to sell itself to someone like China who is a net creditor nation.
We used to be a creditor nation, too, now we are a debtor nation.
From Investopedia:
Investopedia explains Creditor Nation
Creditor nations have invested more resources in other countries than the rest of the world has invested in them. To determine if a country is a creditor nation, one must account for the the nation's overall debt balance when calculating the balance of payments.
Creditor nations can sometimes lose their status and become debtor nations. This happened to the United States in 1988 when its balance of payments turned negative.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditor_nation.asp#ixzz1Qd36xNte
ICan,
ReplyDeleteNo worries about commentating. It is summer! Everyone should be out enjoying themselves as much as they can.
The cold weather comes soon enough and many of us will be trapped in our houses again.
Plus there will be very light commenting this week and next due to the holiday.
Yes - summer is so so busy. I can hardly see straight I've been so busy this year. Nice to have this as an anchor though! Nice, peaceful, no one yelling, no one screaming, no one asking to do impossible things in ridiculous time-lines, I could go on . . . :-)
ReplyDeleteIn the after market, the ES has not pulled back significantly, which is bullish. However, we have to see what happens when Europe opens.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the last push happened in the last 1/2 hour.
Thor, you and I will both be gone this weekend. I think Manny comes home Thursday or Friday. It will be a quiet weekend.
ReplyDeleteI am going to post the chart of the trend day. It is just for reference.
ReplyDeleteRock, put your post up like always.
Denise, Mutt, Rock
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure.
And I didn't mentioned Cisco in the ones that I follow just because I forgot.Sorry.
I'm going to edit the post and mention it, now.
Dan