ICan - we thought maybe a light gray might be better for eye strain - what are we all thinkin'? Makes no difference to me what the colors are. Black on what (reverse) can be hard to read.
Hello everybody Thay pic is hilarious!! Yes Denise hard to be short. The only good one to me were MBI puts but I sold them they are rebounding too. Switch long to AMR yesterday and very glad for stop playing smartass. Dan
I think I'm in the right place now. There was too many posts to read, so, being a slow lazy dum rock, I didn't.
@dss
I'm short. Well, not exactly, though I've shrunk about 1 3/4 inches. But I'm short the market. I started a short using SDS at 27.43 and, oh, look at the no higher highs or lower lows, I haven't added or stopped out.
It may be a waste of time. But my previous investigations say we're flatlining, and ready for a bounce up or down.
My guess is down. I base that on the 3LB and the relative strength charts. If I were smart, I'd be in options and bet both ways, let the options limit my profits. But I'm just rock. Or, I'd set market orders in both directions and let the play happen.
More choppy cross currents, up, down. Marking time until the election. Obviously, the consensus is that the Republicans will take control of both houses, which I think will be proven wrong, and that will be good for business.
Of course, that is before they blew up the economy and the debt the last time they were in charge but the old cliche that Republicans are good for business will not die. Proof that they are not is the stock market's performance during the respective administrations.
@dss Except for one thing: Even bloomberg is saying we will sell the news.
There is no way the Fed can get it right. If they say 3 trillion, the market will plummet because that will weaken the economy. If they say .5 trillion, the marke twill plummet because that's not enough.
Ok, there's both goalposts. Just where is the 50 yard line? What exact number should the Fed say so the market doesn't plummet? 1 Trillion? 1.5 trillion? Based on history, they won't be able to get it right.
So my bet is market will be sold on the news. I agree with Bloomberg, who in a vingnette said the same thing.
I think that's the old color. We can play around with the colors as we go too. It's very easy to change. Maybe see how we all do with a particular color scheme for a day or so and decide?. I'd be more inclined to vote with the more neutral grays/beiges than the lighter colors for eye strain, but also will defer to whatever the group decides. Easy stuff, we're all here, that's what's most important.
Hah, this feels like we've been renting someone else's house and finally moved in to our own place.
The old site got foreclosed upon by the lender. We got to live there rent free but we decided to strategically default and now we are here in our own home. It does feel so much better to have our own place. Thor, we should have done this long ago.
The perfect storm is coming next week with the elections and everything else converging. Sell the news, buy the news, it won't make any difference good news or bad news. Might be a good time for VIX options.
Now this is comforting as we get closer to the college kids coming home for Thanksgiving break:
If your student is coming home for Thanksgiving break there are certain to be some mixed feelings for both of you. Though you are excited to see each other, there can be some stress associated with the first break home. Being away from home, especially for the first time, can be an exciting but difficult experience, and your student may have changed somewhat. Some changes might be cosmetic-a new haircut or color, a piercing or tattoo, change in wardrobe, or gained or lost weight-but some changes could be further under the surface.
Denise - YES! Next week should be a VERY interesting week. I'm glad we got our quarterly fun fest out of the way before the elections so now we can sit back and enjoy (hide from) the fireworks.
Are the next two years going to be good for wall street? I think they will be in DC at least.
Your student may have also made some important self-discoveries and developed new interests in music, politics, or people. This can be a difficult time, especially when dealing with a new sense of identity. The best way to help is to assure your student of your continued love and support at home no matter what. And on the other end, things may have changed at home-maybe the old living room couch finally got replaced, or the house got painted a new color, or friendly neighbors moved out of town. Some students may have trouble adjusting back to their old environment, especially if things aren't the way they left them. Let your student know of any big changes before their arrival at home.
Similarly, some students do not deal well with being away from the routines they know while at college. Difficulty with the transition to college life is sometimes written off as "homesickness," but it can become much more serious than that. Some students can become depressed, angry, or just fail to connect with their neighbors and classmates. If you notice signs of depression in your student-sadness, crying a lot, sleeping in excess, lack of enthusiasm and interest, or anything else that concerns you, do not hesitate to talk about it. It may be a sensitive subject, but it is an important one to address directly.
Piercings, new hair styles, weight gain (or loss, seriously, who loses weight in college?) important self discoveries, (gulp) new interests in music politics or people, depression, crying, sleeping too much, what's not to like?
I guess I am glad that they warned us ahead of time.
Anyway, if you and Thor agree that I might put up a top post from time to time, that would be fine with me. It would be easier than splitting into 4-5 comments with rockspot links for the graphs.
Amazing, isn't it, dss? Our so-called "best & brightest" or "emperors" are literally stark, buck naked right right now. No wonder why true confidence is lacking out there. Deep down, most people know that in the very least things are fucked up.
Manny - I think of that all the time. Every time I hear something on the news about Bell California I think to myself "All this nonsense of a tiny little city no one had ever heard of until now.
How are things being run in Los Angeles? How about Chicago? Houston? People are naive enough to assume that kind of shit only happens in small blue collar towns are they?
It's like all the BS about Martha Stewart. Distractions, nothing more.
Rock - yes absolutely! You can post any time you want! Denise will set you up. You can either post on a scheduled day if you want. Or we can put your stuff up whenever you think it best. I think people would like to see more of the market stuff anyhow.
We will send an invite to you but we need an email address, one that you won't mind the other admins seeing, i.e., without your real name or other identifying information. We will not share that email address with anyone else or make it public, but the admins can see it. The other admins are the usual suspects, me, Thor, emmy, etc.
You can send it to dss0782@gmail.com
We would love to have you post here, and we encourage people to post about what is important to them, markets, current events, your latest vacation etc.
Tried a tiny short just now but so far was only able to get 1/5 of the shares that I wanted. I wonder if Schwab having problems finding those shares for me to short?
This is downright hilarious, if off topic. Had to share. Really exemplifies the insanity (or just short memories) of some people. I honestly believe that's because this is all a "game" for them to win, so when those battles are over, they all have a good laugh over it and show faux-respect for each other like those were the "good old days". We humans are clearly insane. So much for "evolution". More like de-volution. ;-)
Manny - It's part of the same mentality where anything from a year or loner ago is seen as irrelevant ancient history. "Who cares if I said this or did that a year ago, this is NOW"
In the last few weeks, big-names have begun screeching about the evils of the Federal Reserve like never before.
Today, Bill Gross, who is frequently accused of talking his book and being too in bed with the government actually busts out the word "ponzi," a favorite word of Fed critics.
Yesterday Jeremy Grantham depicted Ben Bernanke as a bubble-inflating, economy-destroying zombie.
Last week, the famed currency trader John Taylor compared Bernanke to Adolph Hitler.
John Hussman has been calling the economy a Ponzi in some manner or another for some time.
-------------- This article explains what is behind the hyperbole.
Does this mean that the Tea Party Republicans are in real trouble?
Rove says Palin lacks ‘gravitas’ to be president
Are they starting to "eat their own" just days before the elections? They must be in trouble for Rove to come out and say she is not fit for the presidency.
thor - if you're not too busy at the mo', could you drop me an email (batmando at gmail dot com)? a question re our xchg yesterday about the kiddoh. tx
Conservative journalist Robert Novak says Karl Rove wants to see a McCain-Romney ticket, but that some Romney supporters believe McCain's already promised the spot to someone else.
BULLISH SENTIMENT HITS 2.5 YEAR HIGH 28 October 2010 by TPC 1 Comment
The bulls are officially on parade. It’s all blue skies from here. QE2 has saved the economy and the USA is set for another epic stock market rally that will involve no downside. At least that’s the sentiment expressed by the most recent small investor survey. Of course, these are the same investors whose sentiment was near an all-time low just 7 weeks ago with a bullish reading of 20.7% and an S&P 500 that was almost 15% lower. The latest AAII sentiment survey showed a 2.5 year high in bullish sentiment at 51.6%. This is the highest reading since May 8th, 2008 and just shy of the all-time high in the S&P 500. Of course, the ensuing few months were followed by a now legendary collapse in the markets.
Not only am I not sure, nor is Dss not sure, but the Fed's not sure.
Just saw a vignette on Bloomberg where they said that the Fed is asking for feedback from the primary dealers about what Q#2 should be.
They are afraid of the impending (possible?) plummet in stocks.
Like the Primary Dealers would know.
But, Dss, it's nice to know we're in good company. Or is it Bad Company. No, they did Rock Steady. (a good friend of mine, you have no idea....anyway if the Primary Dealers have to guess, well, we can set up the goalposts and see where the playing field lies.
Can you post your internals obeservation? I'd love to watch that too. I'm watching the TRIN but it seems to always be upwards of 0.
Trin is a less useful internal statistic these days, so I look at the trend of the trin rather than the absolute reading, or on trend days, I look for it to be extremely high or extremely low.
10/12/10 was a trend day up, and the trin confirmed that early with very low readings.
I also look for divergences to spot market turns. i.e., yesterday the trin was lower than the day before overall, yet the market was down. Low trin equals buying pressure. Market participants were buying, not selling, overall.
People think that rallies come out of no where, actually, there are many clues if you look for them.
If I had to place a bet, I would say it would break out to the upside, only because we are in an up trend and once trends are in place they are hard to reverse. Trend reversals usually come on surprising news which often cause the market to spike, but not always.
Many folks missed the bottom in March of 09 because they were looking for a selling climax which never materialized.
The big question that they are probably asking inside the FED is how much $ should have to put up right now if the amount fails to "satisfiy" in this round presuming that two or three more rounds will be necessary in the medium term.
Walking on a blade edge because if too low they'll need to put up a lot more in a haste and the haste by itself is just the perfect scenario for Wall Street to get more than originally expected.
So a lot more go to the markets.Then why the banks are going to even consider to lend money as a part of their bussines model again?They are getting a lot of money for nothing. (assuming that exist people willing to get credit again). Dan
I wonder if this happened in Japan too, further contributing to their economic malaise over the years? This is one of those things that makes me think that we're in for a lost decade or more. On Main Street anyway. For the virtual money la-la land that is Wall Street, it's probably perpetual boom times, thanks to the Fed, Treasury and our other captured political leaders.
We have already been in a lost decade since the market top in 2000. We are about ready to enter the second decade if you ask me. While there have been spectacular rallies since then, the American standard of living has declined every year.
Microsoft reports after the bell. Two things to look for one being the revenue from Kin phone sales. Anything over $187.36 would be bullish, and the other is losses on xbox. Remember, that Msft looses money on every xbox sold, so we are looking for these losses to increase meaning the actual sales are increasing. This is also bullish.
Hey - another cool thing I found, for anyone interested. Is that when you go in to create your posts, the same area, on the far right, is the Stats page. Not as detailed as the full analytics is, but it's neat to see where the traffic is coming from.
Guys, sorry to do this on short notice, but I'm going to have to stop doing linkfests for a while. I need a break from the blogs to handle real-life stuff that's built up. I should be back in 2 or 3 weeks.
It was an automatic thing from the flag counter site. They had an icon that you clicked and it was supposed to put it on the sidebar but it made a post out of it instead.
Don't let anyone ever tell you people in LA don't want mass transit. This is all they're talking about in the news. This line will go from downtown LA all the way to the ocean. Out near where I work. I'd take a subway to work in a heartbeat! Work is 13 miles away and it takes me an hour each way.
And it's on its way: This morning, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Metro Board approved the route for the Westside subway, picking the 9-mile Wilshire Boulevard to Westwood/VA hospital path option. “This is a historic day, this is the first time in our lifetime…that we have gotten this close to extending and building a subway through the Wilshire Corridor," said Zev Yaroslavsky, a county supervisor and board member at today's meeting, held at Metro's downtown headquarters.
My internal statistics are all flagging, which is a non-confirmation of the rally, new highs, a/d line, tick, etc. which would normally make me bearish, but since all declines have been instantly bought there is something else going on, markets can correct by going sideways as well, not just down. We have been going sideways with an upside bias since early Oct.
Also when the last employment stats were released it was obvious that there was no fear in the markets at that time.
This could be a positioning for next week which will certainly bring volatility back into the market.
Giant bull trap, gap up. The trend changing three pushes down from yesterday led to almost 20 S&P points, which makes up for a lot of chop.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone still be short?
ReplyDeleteMorning all!
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, Denise, Thor, Emmanuel, Jeff, Dastro, Bankster - all for your own domain.
ReplyDeleteOne suggestion, I like similar background as andytsgang blog. Easier to read.
I Can
ICan - we thought maybe a light gray might be better for eye strain - what are we all thinkin'? Makes no difference to me what the colors are. Black on what (reverse) can be hard to read.
ReplyDeleteheading in to work - back in a bit
ReplyDelete@I Can,
ReplyDeleteThanks. A new day!
We will continue to tweak the colors and background until we get a consensus that it is good for everyone. I find this grey to be a bit depressing.
Mutt is out today but he sends his best wishes
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be ironic if we had our "P3" now? ;-)
ReplyDeleteAnyway, time to "turn the page", as the inimitable Manny Ramirez used to say.
Apple. Test. Just wanted to see how the word Apple looks in the new format. Looks good.
ReplyDeleteManny - oh jeez, that would be our luck!
ReplyDeleteHey Greg!
Hey Thor...nice job. Love the dog. Reminds me of Edward G Robinson.
ReplyDeleteThis caught my eye. Coming to the U.S? Bailouts for the elites, a GIANT GLOBAL MIDDLE finger for everyone else.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/world/europe/28spain.html?_r=1&hp
Hello everybody
ReplyDeleteThay pic is hilarious!!
Yes Denise hard to be short.
The only good one to me were MBI puts but I sold them they are rebounding too.
Switch long to AMR yesterday and very glad for stop playing smartass.
Dan
Greg - Why than, you! I liked the symbolism. :-)
ReplyDeleteAre we actually going to get two down days in a row?
ReplyDeleteThere's a lighter color - Denise and ICan better?
ReplyDeleteI vote for the previous colour, but of course will defer to the democratic consensus.
ReplyDeletePrevious color a little better on my eyes but both are OK with me.
ReplyDeleteI think I'm in the right place now. There was too many posts to read, so, being a slow lazy dum rock, I didn't.
ReplyDelete@dss
I'm short. Well, not exactly, though I've shrunk about 1 3/4 inches. But I'm short the market. I started a short using SDS at 27.43 and, oh, look at the no higher highs or lower lows, I haven't added or stopped out.
It may be a waste of time. But my previous investigations say we're flatlining, and ready for a bounce up or down.
My guess is down. I base that on the 3LB and the relative strength charts. If I were smart, I'd be in options and bet both ways, let the options limit my profits. But I'm just rock. Or, I'd set market orders in both directions and let the play happen.
More choppy cross currents, up, down. Marking time until the election. Obviously, the consensus is that the Republicans will take control of both houses, which I think will be proven wrong, and that will be good for business.
ReplyDeleteOf course, that is before they blew up the economy and the debt the last time they were in charge but the old cliche that Republicans are good for business will not die. Proof that they are not is the stock market's performance during the respective administrations.
@thor
ReplyDeleteGreat pic. My kind of ex wife had 4 bichons, and that pic captures one of them to a "T".
I forgot to say, welcome everyone! Rock, did you notice the name of the blog, in your honor?
ReplyDeleteYou can do anything if you have a reasonable stop and stick to it, so your strategy is worth trying.
Q's made a new high today the only major index to do so.
ReplyDelete@dss
ReplyDeleteExcept for one thing: Even bloomberg is saying we will sell the news.
There is no way the Fed can get it right. If they say 3 trillion, the market will plummet because that will weaken the economy. If they say .5 trillion, the marke twill plummet because that's not enough.
Ok, there's both goalposts. Just where is the 50 yard line? What exact number should the Fed say so the market doesn't plummet? 1 Trillion? 1.5 trillion? Based on history, they won't be able to get it right.
So my bet is market will be sold on the news. I agree with Bloomberg, who in a vingnette said the same thing.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteAre you interested in having posting privileges?
I think that's the old color. We can play around with the colors as we go too. It's very easy to change. Maybe see how we all do with a particular color scheme for a day or so and decide?. I'd be more inclined to vote with the more neutral grays/beiges than the lighter colors for eye strain, but also will defer to whatever the group decides. Easy stuff, we're all here, that's what's most important.
ReplyDeleteHah, this feels like we've been renting someone else's house and finally moved in to our own place.
Manny quick, lock the doors and windows!!! :-)
This is better than the grey, not so depressing, but it is a bit dark. Once we all get used to something it will be ok.
ReplyDeleteNow we've gone kinda taupe with just a hint of olive. Still good though.
ReplyDeleteI like this color, but maybe a shade lighter? Nice and easy on the eyes.
ReplyDeleteThe old site got foreclosed upon by the lender. We got to live there rent free but we decided to strategically default and now we are here in our own home. It does feel so much better to have our own place. Thor, we should have done this long ago.
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteThe perfect storm is coming next week with the elections and everything else converging. Sell the news, buy the news, it won't make any difference good news or bad news. Might be a good time for VIX options.
HAHAHAHAH - Denise +100 points!
ReplyDeleteNow this is comforting as we get closer to the college kids coming home for Thanksgiving break:
ReplyDeleteIf your student is coming home for Thanksgiving break there are certain to be some mixed feelings for both of you. Though you are excited to see each other, there can be some stress associated with the first break home. Being away from home, especially for the first time, can be an exciting but difficult experience, and your student may have changed somewhat. Some changes might be cosmetic-a new haircut or color, a piercing or tattoo, change in wardrobe, or gained or lost weight-but some changes could be further under the surface.
Denise - YES! Next week should be a VERY interesting week. I'm glad we got our quarterly fun fest out of the way before the elections so now we can sit back and enjoy (hide from) the fireworks.
ReplyDeleteAre the next two years going to be good for wall street? I think they will be in DC at least.
Your student may have also made some important self-discoveries and developed new interests in music, politics, or people. This can be a difficult time, especially when dealing with a new sense of identity. The best way to help is to assure your student of your continued love and support at home no matter what.
ReplyDeleteAnd on the other end, things may have changed at home-maybe the old living room couch finally got replaced, or the house got painted a new color, or friendly neighbors moved out of town. Some students may have trouble adjusting back to their old environment, especially if things aren't the way they left them. Let your student know of any big changes before their arrival at home.
Similarly, some students do not deal well with being away from the routines they know while at college. Difficulty with the transition to college life is sometimes written off as "homesickness," but it can become much more serious than that. Some students can become depressed, angry, or just fail to connect with their neighbors and classmates. If you notice signs of depression in your student-sadness, crying a lot, sleeping in excess, lack of enthusiasm and interest, or anything else that concerns you, do not hesitate to talk about it. It may be a sensitive subject, but it is an important one to address directly.
ReplyDeleteBill Black still on a tear.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/william-black-tears-larry-summers-apart-again-calls-out-obama-place-bank-america-receivershi
Piercings, new hair styles, weight gain (or loss, seriously, who loses weight in college?) important self discoveries, (gulp) new interests in music politics or people, depression, crying, sleeping too much, what's not to like?
ReplyDeleteI guess I am glad that they warned us ahead of time.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteObama's "heck of a job, Larry", comment was very cringe worthy. And so fitting.
@Dss
ReplyDeleteI'm humbled.
That's not easy to do.
But I always thought anonymouse had an "e".
Anyway, if you and Thor agree that I might put up a top post from time to time, that would be fine with me. It would be easier than splitting into 4-5 comments with rockspot links for the graphs.
Amazing, isn't it, dss? Our so-called "best & brightest" or "emperors" are literally stark, buck naked right right now. No wonder why true confidence is lacking out there. Deep down, most people know that in the very least things are fucked up.
ReplyDeleteManny - I think of that all the time. Every time I hear something on the news about Bell California I think to myself "All this nonsense of a tiny little city no one had ever heard of until now.
ReplyDeleteHow are things being run in Los Angeles? How about Chicago? Houston? People are naive enough to assume that kind of shit only happens in small blue collar towns are they?
It's like all the BS about Martha Stewart. Distractions, nothing more.
Rock - yes absolutely! You can post any time you want! Denise will set you up. You can either post on a scheduled day if you want. Or we can put your stuff up whenever you think it best. I think people would like to see more of the market stuff anyhow.
ReplyDeleteRock,
ReplyDeleteWe will send an invite to you but we need an email address, one that you won't mind the other admins seeing, i.e., without your real name or other identifying information. We will not share that email address with anyone else or make it public, but the admins can see it. The other admins are the usual suspects, me, Thor, emmy, etc.
You can send it to dss0782@gmail.com
We would love to have you post here, and we encourage people to post about what is important to them, markets, current events, your latest vacation etc.
Tried a tiny short just now but so far was only able to get 1/5 of the shares that I wanted. I wonder if Schwab having problems finding those shares for me to short?
ReplyDeleteI forgot to say that we need the email address in order to send you the invite from blogger, it is the only way to confer privileges.
ReplyDeleteManny,
ReplyDeleteAre you shorting an individual stock?
This is downright hilarious, if off topic. Had to share. Really exemplifies the insanity (or just short memories) of some people. I honestly believe that's because this is all a "game" for them to win, so when those battles are over, they all have a good laugh over it and show faux-respect for each other like those were the "good old days". We humans are clearly insane. So much for "evolution". More like de-volution. ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/opinion/28collins.html?hp
@dss: Yes. Trying to. Nibbling a little.
ReplyDeleteManny - It's part of the same mentality where anything from a year or loner ago is seen as irrelevant ancient history. "Who cares if I said this or did that a year ago, this is NOW"
ReplyDeleteThe Real Reason for Big Investors Apocalyptic Warnings About The FED
ReplyDeleteIn the last few weeks, big-names have begun screeching about the evils of the Federal Reserve like never before.
Today, Bill Gross, who is frequently accused of talking his book and being too in bed with the government actually busts out the word "ponzi," a favorite word of Fed critics.
Yesterday Jeremy Grantham depicted Ben Bernanke as a bubble-inflating, economy-destroying zombie.
Last week, the famed currency trader John Taylor compared Bernanke to Adolph Hitler.
John Hussman has been calling the economy a Ponzi in some manner or another for some time.
--------------
This article explains what is behind the hyperbole.
Thor, I can't make a link work properly.
ReplyDeleteIs that something we can fix?
http://www.financialpost.com/news/business-insider/REAL+reason+investors+apocalyptic+warnings+about/3735230/story.html
Link to the article at 1:15
Denise - let me check
ReplyDeleteDoes this mean that the Tea Party Republicans are in real trouble?
ReplyDeleteRove says Palin lacks ‘gravitas’ to be president
Are they starting to "eat their own" just days before the elections? They must be in trouble for Rove to come out and say she is not fit for the presidency.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/us-politics/8090279/Karl-Rove-questions-Sarah-Palins-suitability-for-president.html
Denise - looks ok to me . . . I should probably change the links to a color other than black huh?
ReplyDeleteWhat ever works the best.
ReplyDeleteOh, I get it, the link is clickable, it just doesn't look that way.
ReplyDeletethor -
ReplyDeleteif you're not too busy at the mo', could you drop me an email (batmando at gmail dot com)?
a question re our xchg yesterday about the kiddoh.
tx
Good one, Denise. There's ALWAYS an agenda there. Always.
ReplyDeleteThis way Rove can blame Palin for any bad outcomes this election and ruin her post election aspirations to fame and fortune.
ReplyDeleteWho is Rove backing for 2012?
72 - Yes of course, I'm sorry about that. I got a little . . .um . . . . you know :-)
ReplyDelete@Denise: Probably Romney? Rove is a Country Club Republican so anyone who's got the coin and prestige, he's supporting.
ReplyDeleteWe need LEADERS in this country today. It can be so depressing. I hate to say it, but we needed a Roosevelt and we may have gotten a Carter :-/
ReplyDeleteFrom Salon, 2008
ReplyDeleteConservative journalist Robert Novak says Karl Rove wants to see a McCain-Romney ticket, but that some Romney supporters believe McCain's already promised the spot to someone else.
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2008/03/03/veep
Maybe he made a deal with Romney already.
He obviously just threw Palin under the bus.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article...http://www.businessinsider.com/15-amazing-facts-about-apple-2010-10
ReplyDeletegreg,
ReplyDeleteDo you want us to extend posting privileges to you as well?
"Bernanke now simply asking Wall Street how much it wants". www.financialpost.com
ReplyDeleteAlso, from the same link - "Double Down KFC Canada's hit yet". Most successful new menu item yet. Hard to digest this news!
I Can
Manny - Here's your contrary indicator.
ReplyDeleteFrom PragCap
BULLISH SENTIMENT HITS 2.5 YEAR HIGH
28 October 2010 by TPC 1 Comment
The bulls are officially on parade. It’s all blue skies from here. QE2 has saved the economy and the USA is set for another epic stock market rally that will involve no downside. At least that’s the sentiment expressed by the most recent small investor survey. Of course, these are the same investors whose sentiment was near an all-time low just 7 weeks ago with a bullish reading of 20.7% and an S&P 500 that was almost 15% lower. The latest AAII sentiment survey showed a 2.5 year high in bullish sentiment at 51.6%. This is the highest reading since May 8th, 2008 and just shy of the all-time high in the S&P 500. Of course, the ensuing few months were followed by a now legendary collapse in the markets.
Twenty five YEARS!
The market is coiling, consolidating further. You can draw a line through SPY 118 going back to 10/13.
ReplyDeleteWhen it breaks out of the coil the move should be pretty spectacular, up or down.
ReplyDeleteCrossing my fingers for Manny's short
ReplyDelete@Denise 1.54pm. I'm ok with that.
ReplyDeleteNot only am I not sure, nor is Dss not sure, but the Fed's not sure.
ReplyDeleteJust saw a vignette on Bloomberg where they said that the Fed is asking for feedback from the primary dealers about what Q#2 should be.
They are afraid of the impending (possible?) plummet in stocks.
Like the Primary Dealers would know.
But, Dss, it's nice to know we're in good company. Or is it Bad Company. No, they did Rock Steady. (a good friend of mine, you have no idea....anyway if the Primary Dealers have to guess, well, we can set up the goalposts and see where the playing field lies.
Can you post your internals obeservation? I'd love to watch that too. I'm watching the TRIN but it seems to always be upwards of 0.
Big shocker here. There is no accountability any longer in corporate America for top executives.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/us/29spill.html?hp
greg,
ReplyDeleteYou have been invited.
Trin is a less useful internal statistic these days, so I look at the trend of the trin rather than the absolute reading, or on trend days, I look for it to be extremely high or extremely low.
ReplyDeleteHalliburton - nuff said.
ReplyDeleteIs anyone seeing a pattern here with these afternoon bumps? Seems like they're starting to become more regular.
ReplyDelete10/12/10 was a trend day up, and the trin confirmed that early with very low readings.
ReplyDeleteI also look for divergences to spot market turns. i.e., yesterday the trin was lower than the day before overall, yet the market was down. Low trin equals buying pressure. Market participants were buying, not selling, overall.
People think that rallies come out of no where, actually, there are many clues if you look for them.
Looking like early today.Not much change, oh well.
ReplyDelete@Rock
That's spot on, the amount of money by itself is neutral, it all depends how is going to be perceived it's impact.
Is like putting a price in the "animal spirits"
how much money is necesary to make everybody optimist and a happy spender again.
Can the FED put a price on fear?
Until that fear is remove the economy (not the markets) is going nowhere.
Dastro - spot on
ReplyDelete@Manny,
ReplyDeleteThey are only accountable when it comes to cashing their ginormous pay checks. Like the banksters, once paid, they just leave the mess behind.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteIf I had to place a bet, I would say it would break out to the upside, only because we are in an up trend and once trends are in place they are hard to reverse. Trend reversals usually come on surprising news which often cause the market to spike, but not always.
Many folks missed the bottom in March of 09 because they were looking for a selling climax which never materialized.
The big question that they are probably asking inside the FED is how much $ should have to put up right now if the amount fails to "satisfiy" in this round presuming that two or three more rounds will be necessary in the medium term.
ReplyDeleteWalking on a blade edge because if too low they'll need to put up a lot more in a haste and the haste by itself is just the perfect scenario for Wall Street to get more than originally expected.
So a lot more go to the markets.Then why the banks are going to even consider to lend money as a part of their bussines model again?They are getting a lot of money for nothing. (assuming that exist people willing to get credit again).
Dan
I wonder if this happened in Japan too, further contributing to their economic malaise over the years? This is one of those things that makes me think that we're in for a lost decade or more. On Main Street anyway. For the virtual money la-la land that is Wall Street, it's probably perpetual boom times, thanks to the Fed, Treasury and our other captured political leaders.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-bust-impacting-manager-mobility.html
The market...must....never...go....down...again.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if I should cover my little nibble short? What's that about a "dull market"?
Right on schedule too. Can't have two down days in a row now can we?
ReplyDeleteAwesome awesome article from The Atlantic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/7364/
My little short hanging in there.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel, if you have POT-
ReplyDeleteSaskatchewan Passes motion urging Ottawa to block BHP bid for POT - Cdn press,
I Can
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteWe have already been in a lost decade since the market top in 2000. We are about ready to enter the second decade if you ask me. While there have been spectacular rallies since then, the American standard of living has declined every year.
Microsoft reports after the bell. Two things to look for one being the revenue from Kin phone sales. Anything over $187.36 would be bullish, and the other is losses on xbox. Remember, that Msft looses money on every xbox sold, so we are looking for these losses to increase meaning the actual sales are increasing. This is also bullish.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Denise. It's quite sad. Slow motion train wreck.
ReplyDeleteHung onto my baby short going into tomorrow. We shall see what happens.
ReplyDelete@Mann - Translation, blowout earnings news and market Waaaaaay up tomorrow. ;)
ReplyDeleteManny - but the slower it is, the more we can prepare. That never makes me feel any better about it, but it's still nice to say :-/
ReplyDeleteIt was Pomo day today. Friday better not close red. Mondays are green! Trend changes coming?
ReplyDeleteI Can
hey -is anyone else having problems with URL links here?
ReplyDeleteThis is A Test
ReplyDeleteSeems to work ok - the link color was set to black, that's probably why. Sorry folks.
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteLove this colour
Thanks
I Can
Ican - me too! I think this might be it!
ReplyDeleteHey - another cool thing I found, for anyone interested. Is that when you go in to create your posts, the same area, on the far right, is the Stats page. Not as detailed as the full analytics is, but it's neat to see where the traffic is coming from.
@Todd: You're probably right! We shall find out.
ReplyDeleteGuys, sorry to do this on short notice, but I'm going to have to stop doing linkfests for a while. I need a break from the blogs to handle real-life stuff that's built up. I should be back in 2 or 3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck.
Emmy - Totally understand. You've been doing link fests all year with no breaks! We'll cover for you for as long as you need us to. Hope all is well!
ReplyDelete@Thor,
ReplyDeleteadd flags? would be nice to see.
I Can
Thor - That puppy in the top of the post is way too cute to be a mangy mutt, I suppose that is a Pet Store Puppy - With Serious attitude.
ReplyDeleteYou know what they say, never bring a dog to a gun fight, but in this case, what if the dog is the one with the gun?
Mangy Mutt
@emmy,
ReplyDeleteTake care of your business, this is just a blog after all. We eagerly await your return. Thanks for letting us know.
@I Can,
ReplyDeleteI am still looking for the flag add on, but I did find one called "puppy of the day".
I liked the flags too. I'm a bit of a counter, if you know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteIt's on the header but I can't make it move to the sidebar. Help?
ReplyDeleteSell the news?
ReplyDeleteCnbc -"Pros: S&P about to wipeout gains for the year".
Jeff Saut of Raymond James's strategist is forecasting a much as 8% pullback - essentially wiping out gains for the year. Buy the dip, he says.
Read elliot wave charts at Deneric's.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com
Barry at ritholtz.com has an open thread tonight on market direction. He 33% cash from last time I read 50%.
GDP number Friday.
I Can
Denise - how did you put it in the header? :-) I can't even find it in the layout. . . .What was it called?
ReplyDeleteICan - that's fascinating, compared to the 25 year high for bullish sentiment thing I commented on last night. Who's going to be right?
ReplyDeleteIt was an automatic thing from the flag counter site. They had an icon that you clicked and it was supposed to put it on the sidebar but it made a post out of it instead.
ReplyDeletehttp://s06.flagcounter.com/admin.cgi?wTo The login is in the email I sent you.
ReplyDeleteOOOH - got it. Let me see if I can find it and put it on the side.
ReplyDeleteI think I got it, but why is it in there twice?
ReplyDeleteIt does that sometimes. Try logging in and out.
ReplyDeleteCan you fix it so that it counts all countries? That is an option somewhere.
ReplyDeleteThe second one in the window is the one that has max flags of 100 so we need to see someone from another country to come so we can test it.
ReplyDeleteLook at the shit you can pull out of the statistics.
ReplyDeletePageviews by Operating Systems
Windows
525 (67%)
Macintosh
223 (28%)
Other Unix
17 (2%)
iPhone
7 (<1%)
BlackBerry
3 (<1%)
iPad
3 (<1%)
iPod
2 (<1%)
Linux
1 (<1%)
Meh - are your palms sweating? ;-)
Don't let anyone ever tell you people in LA don't want mass transit. This is all they're talking about in the news. This line will go from downtown LA all the way to the ocean. Out near where I work. I'd take a subway to work in a heartbeat! Work is 13 miles away and it takes me an hour each way.
ReplyDeleteAnd it's on its way: This morning, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Metro Board approved the route for the Westside subway, picking the 9-mile Wilshire Boulevard to Westwood/VA hospital path option. “This is a historic day, this is the first time in our lifetime…that we have gotten this close to extending and building a subway through the Wilshire Corridor," said Zev Yaroslavsky, a county supervisor and board member at today's meeting, held at Metro's downtown headquarters.
@I-Can,
ReplyDeleteMy internal statistics are all flagging, which is a non-confirmation of the rally, new highs, a/d line, tick, etc. which would normally make me bearish, but since all declines have been instantly bought there is something else going on, markets can correct by going sideways as well, not just down. We have been going sideways with an upside bias since early Oct.
Also when the last employment stats were released it was obvious that there was no fear in the markets at that time.
This could be a positioning for next week which will certainly bring volatility back into the market.
We have a Hong Kong hit! I will delete the other flag counter.
ReplyDeletelook at the way the chart is loading ;-)
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI know you're very busy, but the old blog had a "home" button which I would click and it would bring me back to the top level.
Could you sometime please add that button? Thanks.