Updated SPY chart showing the continued coiling, and bounce off the upper trend line.
Notice the long time we have spent going back and forth through the 118.00 level.
Note: Emmy's link fest is on vacation for a few weeks and will return at a later date.
Nikkei down 1.66% after hours.
ReplyDeleteIs the S&P going to follow>
Nikkei 225
ReplyDeleteSorry, couldn't get it to post up top correctly.
Why this is significant folks is that the Nikkei topped out in early April, long before the S&P and if this pattern repeats this might suggest that the S&P might be in for a nasty fall.
ReplyDeleteI wish I could do a comparison chart showing the two side by side. Going to the Finviz site will show you the two charts in the futures area.
ReplyDeleteMy gut tells me a pullback is looming, if not tomorrow, then after the elections.
ReplyDeleteOr that could merely indigestion. Not sure yet.
ReplyDeleteI really like the look of this blog. Very nice colors. Sharp but easy on the eyes. Nice job guys!
ReplyDeleteI do too Manny - I think this might be the final look. That was pretty fun. Can we agree now though, no Christmas colored theme? :-P
ReplyDeleteGod, Home Depot has had Christmas stuff up for weeks. These retailers must really be hurting for sales. I don't remember the christmas season starting weeks before Halloween.
Garsh Almighty - Everyone has been talking about a pull back "after the elections" I have always thought that would be the place for it.
ReplyDeletePeople have been talking about it for so long, I did not realize elections are next week.
WOW.
Mangy Mutt
Beware of Greeks bearing bonds:
ReplyDeleteGreek Bond Sell Off Spells Trouble For Equities
"It seems almost surreal but the US equity markets seem to be keying of the Greek debt market. Or perhaps the wider European debt markets and I’m just using the Greek bonds as a proxy. Whatever the case, for some time now, this tell has been giving uncanny signals a few days to a few weeks in advance."
Thor,
ReplyDeleteAny reason why my name and links are red? Do they appear red to me and blue to you?
Mean while back in Greece
ReplyDeleteDoug Kass tweets:
ReplyDeleteclose to and almost all in short now
He made a remarkable call to buy at the July lows. Was ridiculed soundly by ZH, IIRC
Denise - no, not sure - they look blue to me. only red when you click through
ReplyDeleteOh yes! That's the click through - your name is a hyper link so when you click on it, it turns from blue to red.
ReplyDeleteDenise - I see your links as blue too.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Good. Mutt did you get the invite from us?
ReplyDeleteThor thought it might be in your spam filter.
ReplyDeleteDenise - Yes I did thank you.
ReplyDeleteI have been busy with work then after school stuff.
I will get to it this weekend.
Mutt
a random person coming to this blog today would thing we have a thing for dogs.
ReplyDeleteI mean think we have a thing
ReplyDeleteThat is very funny, Thor, you are correct. Maybe I need to find a new picture.
ReplyDeletePlus there is Mutt as well pretending to actually be a dog.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteAt the top of the old blog, there was a bar with Home..About...log in...rss feeed
Could you add the home button for me? I used it a lot and found it helpful.
Old people shake a little when they use the mouse....
Next data point: Tech stocks. Excuse typos it's really hard to type with a bandage--I have to use the other hand.
ReplyDeleteI monitor 68 entries and etf's, separated into 3 categories: Hitech (XLK and $DJULTC), Semis (SOXX, SMH) and software (IGV)
The trend for the hitech is up, both relative strength is positive, and the 3LB is rising. Contrary to this trend, we find
IBM: Rel strength down, 3LB up
HPQ: Rel strength down, 3LB up
CSCO Rel strength up, 3LB down
CIEN: Rel strength dn, 3LB dn
The semis trend is up. Contrary to this trend, we find:
LLTC Rel Strength DN (almost 0, strong trend up), 3LB up
EMC Rel Strength DN (almost 0, strong trend up) 3LB up
KLAC Rel Strength DN, 3LB DN
RMBS Rel Strength DN, 3LB up
QCOM Rel Strength DN, 3LB DN
ALTR Rel Strength Dn, 3LB up
XLNX Rel Strength Dn, 3LB Dn
MOT: Rel strenght Dn, 3LB up
CREE Rel Strength Dn, 3LB DN
TLAB Rel Strength DN, 3LB DN
So there are really only 8 of the 22 semis, about 1/3. This is statistically significant, so I'm thinking Semis isn't such a strong sector to play right now.
The software sector trend is up. Contrary to this trend, we find:
MFE (I can't tell because the charts get screwed up when Intel announced the buyout.
IRM Rel Strength DN, 3LB UP
VMW Rel Strength DN, 3LB UP
CKP Rel Strength up, 3LB DN
RHT Rel Strength DN, 3LB UP
TDC Rel Strength DN, 3LB UP
ADS Rel Strength DN, 3LB DN
NOVL Rel Strength DN, 3LB UP
I actually like VMW, even though they aren't following the trend. I believe they have a good solution for the support of cloud computing (yes, I know it's just a buzzword, but marketing sells buzzwords), and I feel this was just a pullback for them.
In conclusion, looks to me like the tech sector is one place you want to be. Good herds, here. Some really strong trending stocks.
@Manny,
ReplyDeleteIt was all Thor's doing. I can't even get the flag counter up and running without his help.
Rock,
ReplyDeleteWe need an email address if you are still interested in posting privileges.
Nice Singapore Flag!
ReplyDeleteNight all, hope I don't wake up to a 200 point gap down.
ReplyDeleteDenise - You have no idea how hard it is to type with paws.
ReplyDeleteSheesh....
Mangy Mutt
In looking around at the techs this afternoon, I came across a couple that need mentioning:
ReplyDeleteLLTC: it's relative strength is trending up, and it's 3LB is positive. If it can break through 31.87 or so, I think it's a buy. There's strong resistance from the volume action from July/end to Aug 10 or so, so I'm thinking about a market order at 32.50.
The other one I like is AONE. It's 3LB is popping, the relative strength is positive. It has strong resistance at 11.25 or so. I'm thinking of buying on a 15 minute higher low and adding as usual until we get around 10.80 depending on the chop, reducing until I see what happens at 11.30 then add if it pops up from there.
Rock - Your wish is my command.
ReplyDelete@des
ReplyDeleteYes, I know. I have to make the request through channels so it can be monitored. It'll take a little while. Sorry for the delay. I made the request at the meeting this morning, and filled out the form in triplicate this afternoon.
What would we ever do without beur-rock-racy?
(just remember, adding rocks to anything just slows you down and adds dead weight)
Rock,
ReplyDeleteSorry, I didn't know that it was that difficult for you. No rush, just wanted to make sure you were still interested.
@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteI know, my dog complains about it all the time...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete(I tested the delete function--works fine)
ReplyDeleteOne more data point: there have been a lot of 1/4 Billion stock-days the last couple of days. Here's the list (these probably won't hit the most active list, because the list is found by Volume * close price > 200 million)
Swings positive on the trade (meaning there were more buyers than sellers: BRCD BRCM DRIV LIFE MIPS RFMD RIMM COH CTV OII PLD TMO NBL CELG MOT SVR
Swings negative on the trade are TLAB JNY KMB LXK OI S SHW WHR ZMH NLY FNSR CCE STX AVP FLS HAL LZ MMM SKX TER
Observation: a lot of high tech names in the swing positive camp.
Question: look at CCE for me. On october 1, there was a huge swing negative on 17 million shares. Yesterday, it hardly moved at all on 16 million shares. I think something's up with CCE but I don't know what.
Well, Barton Biggs was on Bloomberg. He said:
ReplyDeleteTechi is good and getting better. Well, he's timely. He must have read my comment.
We are 1/2 way to an emerging markets bubble, not there yet.
He said he's playing a sell-off after the QE2 announcement, then he's looking for a 10% rally.
If Leftback is out there, and is not left back there, I'd love to hear his idea on QE2 amount. I've read the NY Fed website and come to the conclusion that the FED is buying treasuries currently at about a 60-80 billion per month rate, re-investing the stuff that is paid off. I'm guessing they will want to double this rate, so I'm looking for an announcement of 960 Billion over a 1 year period. I think that will be looked upon by the Barton Biggs'es of the world as too little, too late, and we'll see the "sell the news" before we settle out at another slow and steady upswing.
I think that means we need to do our homework and find the best herds and the best cows and milk them.
Morning all, morning Rock! I think LB might be traveling again.
ReplyDeleteQ3 GDP is 2%. We are turning Japanese.
My baby short inching downward. Very good little doggie (staying with the dog theme). Question is when do I cover?
ReplyDeleteManny, you'll never go wrong covering once it's in the money.
ReplyDeleteGood point, greg. I think this one has a bit to go though. Been watching it for a LOOOONNNNG time. Don't want to reveal it for different reasons though. I hope that's not annoying to people.
ReplyDeleteManny - not at all!
ReplyDeleteManny...hope it's not either the Canadian dollar or Apple. That would not be nice.
ReplyDeleteFinally the last one in the batch I was following awoke EK, I know I know, but hey from the perspective of what I'm doing equals ACAS or AMR in quality.Who can tell.
ReplyDeleteGoing to watch it.
Planning to get back to AMR (sold stock yesterday) but keeping calls and puts in place anyway.
Dan
Good morning everyone.
ReplyDeleteManny,
Your TLT trade was a great success. As I have said before, no harm in putting a trade on, the damage comes when the trade goes south and a small loss is allowed to turn into a gigantic one that blows up your account.
This is Anonymouse Traders, of course you can talk about your trade.
Dastro,
ReplyDeleteNice trade on AMR.
@greg: No, definitely not either of those! I may be dumb but I'm not THAT dumb.
ReplyDeleteMorning Denise
ReplyDeleteYes I got lucky yesterday selling in the afternoon, just a small gain but never hurts.
Will see if Makes the correction that I was expecting or start going up again.
Not too original but I have calls and puts the only thing before buy or short this stock is to know if is worth it (the drop) because by Wednesday I'm bullish in this one for several weeks.Will see.
Dan
Is it just me or do you see my handle red too?
ReplyDeletePOMO, and its possible effects on the markets. Quite a revealing chart. And some people continue to believe the Feds can't influence the markets for long periods of time. Go figure.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/pomo-still-matters/
No, I see everyone's in blue.
ReplyDeleteOk thanks
ReplyDeleteWolfie - if you're here today, how are those strikes going?
ReplyDeleteIs Marseilles seriously turning into Naples with the trash business?
They're blue cuz they're link, if you click someone's name it'll change color like a regular link. :-)
ReplyDeleteWe can keep them blue at all time if you guys prefer
ReplyDeleteI prefer blue.
ReplyDeleteI prefer chartreuse with just a hint of salmon.
ReplyDeletehahahah - Blue it is :-)
ReplyDeleteLol
ReplyDeleteFrom PragCap
ReplyDeleteQE DID NOT WORK IN THE U.K.
Pardon the constant QE coverage, but this is by far the most important topic in the market these days so it’s important that we exhaustively research and hammer out the details on the program. During my research last night I came across this excellent paper out of Europe titled “Innocent Frauds Meet Goodhart’s Law in Monetary Policy“. It is one of the most thorough debunkings of QE I have come across. In this paper, they studied the QE program in the UK and came to important conclusions that are also applicable to the USA:
“An empirical analysis of the effect of reserves on lending was conducted; we do not find evidence that QE “worked” either by a direct effect on money spending or through an equity market effect. These findings are placed in a historical context in comparison with earlier money control experiments in the UK. Overall, we conclude that policies with serious flaws continue to be supported because of their link to powerful innocent frauds, which have great intuitive appeal and are widely upheld.”
This research confirms many of my personal findings thus far. QE did not boost lending, did not cause interest rates to decline and perhaps most importantly it did not have an equity market effect. From an operational perspective this can be confirmed because QE is merely an asset swap between the central bank and the primary dealers. Because it does not add net new financial assets, boost aggregate demand or influence interest rates substantially there is no reason for the program to influence the equity market. That is, unless, investors falsely believe the policy is expansionary or could drive equities higher. Eager buyers may drive prices higher, however, without a subsequent change in fundamentals there is no reason for the gains to last (because there was no fundamental reason for the gains in the first place).
Anyone else get the impression that everything is very precariously balanced on a very sharp knife blade?
ReplyDeleteQE might be responsible for the rise in the markets and a good deal of the rise in commodities. The huge run up we've seen the last year and a half. What's QE2 going to do? How long will it push up the markets and how does one play that knowing full well that it could all come crashing down at any minute.
I-Man seems to have a good plan - no overnight holdings.
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteI don't want to leave the house during the day, like the day I ran out to Costco and the flash crash happened.
This is exactly the crucial part for me
ReplyDelete"...unles,investors, falsely believe the policy is expansionary or could drive equities higher".
Who in their right mind thought rationally speaking in mid 1998 that ewuity prices were sustainable.
Anyway everybody and their brother had 1 1/2 year to make good money.Is just perceptions believes rather than rationality.
Dan
Dastro - EXACTLY! This could go on for years. All this money being thrown at the banks. No one seriously believes any of those banks are doing anything good with that money are they? They're most certainly not loaning it out, there's no demand.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Which means, of course, they'll do even MORE of it here. Sometimes I feel like we're living an episode of "The Twighlight Zone". One long, drawn out one. Is that show back on? If so, where are the hidden cameras? Are we all being "punked"?
ReplyDeleteExactly Dastro. And if enough players in the markets perceive or BELIEVE something to be true and then act on it, we get results that don't make a lot of sense from a common sense standpoint, often for long periods of time.
ReplyDelete@Manny
ReplyDeleteAnd empahazising what you told for a while about the power of the FED, the lion's share resides just in perception to the moneyed class and the genaral population.Is not a "technical" power so to speak.
Dan
Dan(11:56)
ReplyDeleteGood observation. It's not what one player thinks, it's the market. I can sit and rationalize all I want. That's what happened to bears after Mar.09.
I Can
@ I Can
ReplyDeleteSpot on.
Markets are not rational to me, they never were either.
Rationality is a justification to not seeing myself too much of a sucker if I make a bad trade because hey the economy is not good (so I can justify my senility and rigidity) even though the market is kicking my butt.
Dan
@Dastro: That's been my premise all along. It's a PERCEIVED influence but perception (and action) in large groups are what the markets are all about, aren't they?
ReplyDeleteMarket as a place where is irrelevant what I want or I perceive as with value.
ReplyDeleteInstead a place where I go get what other people are thinking has value and sell to them later hopefully at a profit for me.
Dan
@Manny..you are describing a Twilight Zone episode "The Monster are due on Maple Street"..."they pick the most dangerous enemy they can find. And it's themselves."
ReplyDeleteGot some EK calls, hope that turd is becoming popular
ReplyDeleteAnybody redo their homes lately?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/lowe2527s-drywall-georgia-state-chris-brucker/10/29/2010/id/30848?page=1
Might be time to short lowes. This could be a long-term pile of poo-poo for Lowes and perhaps for other contractors that purchased cheap chinese wallboard. My wallboard for my latest remodel came from US Gypsum.
Greg - aint that the truth?
ReplyDeleteThe folks in the humanities but be having a field day with what's going on in the world lately.
Rock - Yes actually, we have. Got some amazing deals too - contracting work is nowhere near as expensive as it was 5 years ago, both here in LA and out in eastern Riverside County. Too many folks out of work.
ReplyDeleteI haven't noticed a pick up at Lowes or Home Depot at all this last year and the number of day laborers at the HD near my house are getting fewer and and fewer every months.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteThat drywall thing has been in the news for a while. I heard it in MSM in the summer.
I Can
@Rock: Yes, we just had our bathroom completely gutted and re-done. Not a cheap or quick endeavor. Don't plan on doing anything in '11 though.
ReplyDeleteZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..................
ReplyDeleteWAKE UP!!!!
ReplyDeleteMutt
No shit - nothing going on until next week. If next week is as boring as this week . . ..
ReplyDeleteSomeone gone on a business trip? Or hidding in some blog?
ReplyDeleteI thought this was good.
ReplyDeletehttp://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/on-wall-street-all-reward-no-risk/?hp
To me, the only obvious answer is to tax the shite out of those obscene bonuses. Won't happen, of course, because both parties are utterly captured by Wall Street (after all, how many of our political leaders' friends and family make their money working in Wall Street?)......
ReplyDeletehttp://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/on-wall-street-all-reward-no-risk/?hp
Rock - I have an older car, that I am working on, the other day I noticed the oil pan was leaking and thought that might be the source of my problem.
ReplyDeleteSo I went to replace the gasket, well the tie-bar runs directly under the oil pan, so I figured these parts haven't been changed in about 40 years so now is the best time to do it.
So I take the tie-bar off and go to order the end pieces. The guy at the auto parts store says he can get the Chinese made ones for $5 a piece or the American made ones for $17.
Seeing how if these parts break, the car looses stearing, I went with the American made ones.
I know things are cheaper coming from China, but why take the chance?
FYI-I'm not sure why but my wife doubled my life insurance :/
Mangy Mutt
Mannwich - No kidding on the taxes.
ReplyDeleteSure nothing wrong with making a profit, but since many of these same corporations use the argument; "Cheap labour, helps give us cheaper products"
Why pay a CEO, $7 million a year? Wouldn't it be batter to pay him $3 million and use the other $4million to increase the workers wages.
Yea the same workers who will now be able to afford the same products they are making.
Mutt
@Mutt: The delusions of grandeur at the top prevent them from thinking this way, even when their companies fail under their watch. See Carly Fiorina and countless other examples of this dynamic. It's all someone else's fault when companies fail under them, but all of their responsibility and credit goes to them when companies do well. A can't lose proposition for them. The real sense of entitlement in this country is with the elites, not the poor schmucks who just want a decet wage and bene's, and the ability to feed their families and send their kids to school. But, alas, the Tea Party thinks it's going to elect some new people who will make things better for them. Again, Twilight Zone stuff. It would be somewhat amusing if I didn't live here. Somewhat.
ReplyDeleteManny - It's endemic. I see it with both the senior executives, as well as many of the younger people coming out of college. The sense of entitlement some of these people come in with is astounding. Senior management is the worst because of it's inconsistencies, most of the senior people we hire are responsible. Other though, sheesh, we have them demanding we set up their home offices, pay for their internet at home, cell phones, wireless access cards. This is just in their technology needs, my friends in HR tell me that their demands on the back end, are just as egregious sometimes.
ReplyDeleteThe younger people can often be worse - for a lot of them, just coming to work and doing an adequate job warrants huge raises and salaries. Having their managers tell them that in order to get a good raise they have to actually go above and beyond doesn't often go over well.
Too many people trying to get as much candy as they possibly can. If this kind of attitude keeps up, there won't be anything left for anyone.
Not endemic, sorry, epidemic.
ReplyDelete@ICan:
ReplyDeleteThe issue is the size of voluntary payout by Lowe's. LOW has lots of high-power corporate attorneys, and this is the conclusion they've reached.
Now, Lowe's is not an importer. They buy from a wholesaler who buys from the importer. Think KBH, RYL nd TOL are at risk?
I'll bet they are. I think you'll be able to buy contaminated wallboard test kits like you can get Radon test kits now. Because of the large settlements possible, I think this is potentially a big deal for a bunch of companies.
Rock - is that Home button where you wanted it? I see there's one at the top and the bottom.
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteIt's perfect. I've already used it a bunch of times. Thanks.
I thought this disclaimer is pretty funny:
ReplyDeleteDISCLAIMER!
Since the 1st Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is null and void,
except as still permitted by law by the out-of-control U.S. federal, state, and local governments, the following disclaimer is provided:
This web page or web site is not to be construed as providing investment advice. This material is provided for informational, amusement, and educational purposes only. Consult a duly (dully) trained, authorized, credentialed, licensed, and brainwashed establishment professional or government lackey before engaging in any financial transactions relying on this or any other information.
From http://www.buylow-and-sellhigh.com/z-disclaimer.php
@Denise
ReplyDeleteThe way to go
Thanks, Dan.
ReplyDeleteTrader Mark at fundmymutualfund.com has lot good posts today.
ReplyDeleteMonday should be a monster day up - based on recent trend.
Japan's planning more QE - Japan vs. the U.S.
Bufflo teachers skim taxpayers $9 million for cosmetic surgery.
I Can
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteI have horror stories of my own re poor quality products made in China. Whenever we buy anything, we look at where it is made. These days you cann't escape."Made in China" label.
I don't know why Canada even allows food products from overseas!
I Can
Market is still coiling at the upper ranges of the triangle.
ReplyDeleteSo far today is an extremely narrow range inside day which tends to lead to break outs.
Range contraction followed by range expansion.
Next week could be a doozy.
Manny - how did your bathroom turn out? Was it what you expected? I have to say in my own little house, I like my bathroom remodel more than anything else in the house, including the kitchen (I don't cook).
ReplyDeleteOh yes
ReplyDeleteIs the preparations to put "formally" the Lehman crisis behind regarding market action.
Was tried in April but didn't stick at that time.
Dan
All that matters, perceptions, perceptions.
ReplyDeleteAnd FED being able to say well we finally "recovered" from the Lehman collapse and cross finger expecting people to think hard and decide that they want too, to leave it behind.
Dan
Classic rejection of the upper trend line, with tick divergences.
ReplyDeleteA 6.25 range in the ES mini today. Smallest range since 3/8/10. Which brings the 7 day MA of the ES range down to 12.54. This small range was seen last on Sept 17, just before the breakout to new highs.
ReplyDeleteThese type of break out can go either way, up or down, I am not suggesting that we automatically break out to the upside because we did the last time.
ReplyDeleteWe need to hold this tight range until the close, obviously.
ReplyDelete@Thor: Turned out very well. Took a bit longer than we had hoped but it looks great. Went from our least favorite room to one of our favorites.
ReplyDeleteThank you Denise for your views, is always about the past (action) maybe not the direction but past tell us that's coming.
ReplyDeleteMy view is that maybe today in the morning was the pivot that I mention Tuesday and starts going up.Will see.
Long again AMR (keep calls and puts) over the weekend.
Dan
Snoozer of a day. I wonder if we won't get a break either way until after next Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend everyone.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is the Grand Opening Weekend Post, be sure to check it out and offer any suggestions.
Manny Mondays will be back on Monday as well.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Thor and Denise for the new blog. Off to a great start.
ReplyDeleteWell Wednesday at least should be an interesting day. If I hear one more political discussion or advertisement I think I'll scream. I won't listen to NPR again until after the elections.
ReplyDeleteAbout 5 years ago, I re-did the bathroom in our old house, the people who owned the house before had put particle board down for flooring and we were starting to run into some major problems with that.
ReplyDeleteThe walls had 2 layers of sheet rock, on top of that wood grain vanier, then another layer of sheet rock on top of slat and plaster. I gained almost 4 inches on each wall. And ended up having to gut the bathroom to the studs, which of course was not in the budget or plans.
It ended up taking me about a month to fix.
Finally got it done though and my wife was happy too :)
Mangy Mutt
Thank YOU Greg - and everyone else who has helped to make this group what it is! I'm way proud of us and how everyone has come together to make this happen. Drama aside, I haven't felt this kind of feel to a blog in awhile now. I'm glad we are all doing a good job at making this work!
ReplyDelete@Denise and Thor,
ReplyDeleteOne suggestion, I may. Please remove e from "Anonymouse". I know it's in Rock's honour.
My 2 cents!
I Can
Yup yup - I think Rock saw it already.
ReplyDeleteFinally - The Weekend
ReplyDelete