Within this set of constraints, here are the stocks that have pulled back the most the last several days:
CAVM DECK GT IOC
OPEN AKRX NAV SKX DMND BCO
VNO MOH BX
AFL ALKS AMLN BBG CEG CNX CTRP CY DFT ESI EW EXPE FCN FSLR GFI GMCR GT ICON IRM MAKO NRGY OPEN TZOO UNG VALE VALE.P VVUS WLP WSM
ACI ANR ATI AYR BAK BAS CAH CCJ CMC CROX DE DELL DWA ERF FCX GG GILD GNTX GTI HPQ ILMN IOC JCP LIFE POT PPO QCOR RIMM RRD SIMO SLW STLD TDS TIE VCI WLP
Here's the strongest stocks,
(from Friday, the list of the best revenue growth: AAPL AMZN QCOM PCLN JOY VTR)
ACC BIG CINF COST CPN DISH FDO JAH ORLY OVTI RGC VRSK
and somewhat less strength:
ITB ARUN ANN TSO SPR ATHN KRO RYL DISH CPN ARO GTLS OC ZUMZ MTH AEO CRR SCSS VLO JAH LEN CLNE DHI INSP OVTI ITMN VHC JOE
Now, do we believe the strongest stocks will continue their run, or do we believe the weakest stocks will turn around and pop the most?
Here's the trend: The market is advancing, but my favorite leading indicator is down.
In all the other times in the near-term past when the SPXA50 was headed down, the market was also falling. Not this time. This time it looks like time is doing the consolidation, and we've been in the 134-138 range since Feb 10.
I think we have a market that's wound tighter than a $3 watch. I will be playing the long side, staying in overnight with partial positions. Initially, I will be playing strength, and watching the weakness for signs of a confirmed turn-around, then move into those.
I don't anticipate any structural changes, but one never knows.
Yea it does seem wound a little tight.
ReplyDeleteMorning guys, I am still trying to adjust to Day Light Time, one hour can make a difference in how you sleep.
Mutt
Morning Mutt.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich: you'll like the article over at Zero. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-money-nothin-primer-fake-wealth-creation-and-its-implications-part-1
He did miss making one point. When you've created your wealth through debt, the only way to save yourself is to get other people to pay you for your wealth. In other words, If you've created a financial product out of assets with no foundation, you need to use that wealth to buy assets with foundation. Then you can escape the circle, and end up the winner in this game. And it's even better if you can get all citizens to pay you for acquiring those assets, then your debt destruction becomes painless.
That's what happened to MFGlobal. And the execs are being paid a bonus for it. And why shouldn't they? They made money the old fashioned way---they stole it.
An analogy to my previous comment is when you go to grammy to borrow your down payment for a house.
ReplyDeleteOf course, banks don't permit you do this. But that same rule doesn't apply to them.
And, VXX is fast approaching my buy target of $20. Check out today's action. Market's down, and VXX is real down. That's a divergence worth noting.
ReplyDeleteRock - Back when we were selling real-estate we saw people get into the mind set that because they could borrow money they were some how more wealthy.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes it difficult not to get jealous of the new and nice stuff these people were putting into their houses, but we are extremely happy now that we do not owe but very little money.
Mutt
Has anyone heard from Thor?
ReplyDeleteJust wondering if he made it back safe and sound.
Mutt
The number 1 most emailed article on the NYTimes. Sounds a lot like the malaise of Japan, no?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/11/opinion/sunday/the-go-nowhere-generation.html?src=rechp
I think Thor's gone. He probably got busy getting caught up. Anyway, now is not the time to trade, I think. The oscillation in a tight range is a recipe for losses. By the time you get a trend and start your position, the trend flips around on you.
ReplyDeleteExcept of course AAPL.
Great comment by Stucap over at Cobra's:
ReplyDelete"Asia sells, Europe buys, Dip before US open bought by open, Dip after open, Bought by 11am, Consolidate POP Consolidate POP......repeat."
Yep, today too. Looking at my long-term chart, it's almost time to exit this consolidation to the upside. Which is why I posted the best and the worst list today.
Don't forget AAPL for the upside move. Granted it may only move $50, but it is its own currency, and a safe, middle-of-the-road bet might be in order when the volatility weasel strikes.
Come back Thor! We miss you over here. Slowly dropping like flies (is that even possible?). Are we down to three?
ReplyDeleteYup much agreement with you there Rock, as I have stated repeatedly, I did not get the action I thought from the Market and so have been sitting on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteBut I guess that is the way life goes, just as I think I am getting a slight understanding of how to set up trades and what to look for in patterns, the market goes into a long drawn out mostly sideways movement...Oh well.
Mutt
Mannwich - I believe part of the slow down in postings over here is that many of us are not currently trading.
ReplyDeleteI have seen the same thing on several differnet blogs, I think once the market desides to throw up and we get through that, then actual people and not HFT will hopefully get back into trading.
But until then, it is "Hold the Course"
Mutt
Mutt:
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be so. Today we've had 55 page reads, and with 12 comments, that basically means that it's mostly you, Mannwich and me.
But that's ok with me, I still learn and get wake-up calls from you guys. Also this is a great and easy place to keep notes.
On the other note, things are quite slow out there. There's only 336 million shares traded at 2:00 today.
That means, anybody who wants to (like the Plungers) can move this market dramatically.
I've lost money today, my overnight positions were stopped out this AM and I haven't seen any trend that's noteworthy enough to trade. The volume is so slow, I actually do see a price change when I make a market order. (watching the bid-ask-last data shows the market orders clearly because the bid is always over the ask, and the volume is my number). Which is why you shouldn't use market orders, but use limit orders when you trade.
I should take my own advice, for sure.
Volume is 336 million shares traded at 2:00. Scary light.
ReplyDeleteAnother useful article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.good.is/post/bliss-is-on-the-way-the-case-for-economic-optimism/
We have reached the point of having many black-collar workers, who are essentially unemployed in the 1950's sense, but completely employed as a collaborator, entrepeneur, facilitator in today's economy.
the quote: "People will learn, share, and create with—not for—one another at a previously inconceivable scale.".
I've said that today's unemployment is systemic, not cyclic. This article says "we've hit technological unemployment", that is, the application of technology puts people out of "work" faster than the entrepeneurs can create the "work".
It's a good article. And it should tell the "unemployed" how to become employed and constructive in our current environment.
New post is available
ReplyDelete