Both charts are the same time scale. You can pretty much see that UUP trend is the inverse of AGQ, a silver ETF. Right now, the Bernank wants to keep the dollar moving weaker, but additional liquidity in the Eurozone is trying to thwart these plans. If China adds liquidity as well, the Bucky is likely to grow stronger, hence pushing silver lower.
What's the probability that will happen?
Here's another chart. It's the daily AGQ. I think you can see a H&S forming, with the peak volume at the head.
The last H&S I followed didn't complete, and resolved to the upside. My thinking is the dollar will continue it's downward trend, and this chart will also not complete, resolving to the upside. That's based on my previous observation that the Bernank knows how to push the dollar down.
Rock - Over the past couple months I have been somewhat bullish on silver although not long term.
ReplyDeleteWe know that all the different flavors of QE have created a wave of liquidity, which helps to bring speculation into play, for the past 3 years gold has been going to Go to the Moon, now it has made some impressive moves up, but it is still far from the moon, oil has also saddly been moving up, but oil is a usable resource and once it is used, it is all gone.
Silver is the poor mans gold and as far as I can tell it has not yet been caught up is speculation and there is not a whole lot out there left that has not been over levered.
I guess we will just have to wait and see.
Mutt
One thing to remember is that silver is an industrial metal, and if the economy really does improve, the consumption of silver will follow. Therefore the price will go up.
DeleteIf, however, this recovery is false, the metal price is likely to stagnate.
It may be that we can follow the silver price to determine the validity of the recovery.
Interesting concept, I think.
Rock - Saddly I do not believe there is a whole lot that is organic about this recovery.
DeleteI believe there are certain areas that are truly recovering, but over all there seems to be way too many people who have been on extended unemployment way too long and now we are getting way too many people recieving (And depending on) food stamps and other forms of welfare.
And if enuff people start believing they owe their existance to the goberment hand outs, there is little that can be done to help them realize the only reason we have a goberment is to serve the people.
Oh well Benny will print and Obummer will keep creating goberment hand outs.
I do not see us in a true recovery yet.
Mutt
Here comes our pullback? Things are also getting quiet on my end on the biz front. Almost like the Sheeple are realizing this isn't going to get much or any better than this any time soon with their home values or job/small biz advancement prospects. That Wile E. Coyote moment over the cliff.
ReplyDeleteWell, I was wrong on my guess that the Bernank put would keep the bucky going lower. It's clearly broken out of it's downchannel and has established a new upchannel.
ReplyDeleteRemember that as the dollar gets stronger, precious metals (like gold and silver) that trade in the dollar are pushed lower.
I've been getting out every night, and last night was no exception. Look at XOM, there was no dip this morning for them.
That is what I have been waiting for.
DeleteI really thought we were going to have a pull back starting a couple weeks ago as that is what all the charts I was looking at indicated, so I have done all my planning with that in mind.
It seems like I am usually early and two years ago I would not have waited for the market to turn, so you see Rock all your talk about being patient wasn't for nothing :)
Mutt
I wonder if this "stag-deflation" is here to stay as well, meaning every time oil prices lurch upward, we get an economic lull. I can see this process being repeated for a long time, as Benny and his central banking compadres continue to print money to cover bad debts in a race to the bottom?
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting article. Although soothsaying isn't my thing, I trade the tape, but the last paragraph is kind of what I'm looking for, some kind of event around the 1st of July.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2012/02/29/i-am-not-sure-why-this-time-should-be-different/
@Mannwich:
I think so as well. Which is why I'm glad to be in the RMB, and am thinking to buy another rental property, which will return at most 4%.
Looking at the AGQ H&S above, we sure didn't spend much time at the neckline on the way down, did we?
ReplyDeleteAgain, I expected the head to be violated by a gentle rise. Man was I wrong. But I just traded the volatility, so made some buckys.
Seriously, VXX looks like it has some room to run. I never did trade it, it didn't get down to my $20 target. but if we get a move higher today and tomorrow (dip buying) it might be time to consider an entry.
Oh-oh, oh-oh-bama's about to speak. New housing plan. Get ready to buy the dip!
ReplyDeleteOoops my bad, I thought you meant "Buy Obummer" when you actually meant "buy the dip" in the market.
ReplyDeleteMangy Mutt
I think the dip spoke. No action from the market......
ReplyDeleteWhat's this? A real live sell off? Escalator up, elevator down.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteActually, we had warning. I overlooked it, and didn't say anything here.
Look at the relative strength of IWM compared to SPY. On 2/07, The IWM started to lose pace with the SPY. It had been running about 2% better than the SPY but around 2/7, it's relative strength started to fall and went below the SPY on 2/10. It's been running at around -4% since then.
The IWM is the small caps, the risky bets. If it's not outpacing the SPY, then we've got risk off.
So we been warned.
Oops, IWM's been running around -2% since 2/10. Sorry. Lost my calibrated eyeballs....
ReplyDeleteThe fed bought 933Million of reverse repo's today, using treasuries as collateral.
ReplyDeleteAre we starting an unannounced QE3? Remember the triparty repo market is failing (according to the Fed).
A chart from Cobra's site:
ReplyDeletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=16008&sid=f9788f946e7deb3f2cc7da0ddfd08998&mode=view
Of course, I think we're still headed higher, into July. There wasn't the liquidity pump in October, 2002.
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteDid you see this?
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/rulings/promise-broken/
@Rock: Your 12:22
ReplyDeleteYou dummy. You had warning. Go look at Friday's post chart of the SPXA50. You just didn't believe the chart. Thought you were too smart, eh? Thought the central banks would come and save your butt, eh?
Well, you don't know nothin. Believe the charts. Play the tape.
SPXA50's down again today. More lows to come.
Bruce Bartlett nails it:
ReplyDeletehttp://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/fanning-the-flames-of-class-warfare/
Rock - I am shocked Obummer did not keep all his campaign promises, politicians rarely lie...
ReplyDeleteActually there are a few in there, that I believe the Federal Goberment has no business in regulating.
Sadly though it does not look like Newt is going to become our next president - He would have made things soooooooooooo much better - NOT!!!
Mangy Mutt
Well, it looks like on the open, we'll start a turn-around Tuesday. I think one bad day deserves another, but it seems not so. Bucky's down just a little in the premarket, so watch for bucky to strengthen and the SPY to turn red.
ReplyDeleteI'll be playing to the downside today, that is, sell the blips and cover the dips. At least at the start.
Remember I lose my opinion so I don't lose my money.
I just heard a pundit on Bloomberg say that we're out of overbought territory, and used a moving average to determine that. I never heard of that one before, I've only heard of using stochastics. The stochastics on my chart have dropped to 47, so we're getting closer to the 20 oversold area, but the trend is still downward.
ReplyDeletegood article I found over at Cobra's site. About indicators.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/technical-indicators-to-lead-or-lag-that-is-the-question/
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteGood article.
I'd like to find a website of the promises made by the candidates, like the website above which tracks the President. It would be interesting to see the waffling we are about to encounter.
Rock - I am very much in agreement with you that there is still (And should be) room to move down more, I have a couple stocks that I would like to pick up if they get down to the range I believe they should be, but will see.
ReplyDeleteOf course with this market it is probably up up and way and I will again be sitting on the sidelines...Oh well, will see.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt: like my old girlfriend told me as she was killing me on the golfcourse, "never up, never in".
ReplyDeleteI liked her a lot.
Rock - I am still in on miniture golf course, I am still learning what rules to go by and I figure like everything else it takes time and patience to become decent and a lot more time and patients to become good and right now I am far from being decent.
DeleteBut I will continue to learn and hopefully get better someday, so that I can one day play golf for real.
Mutt
UUP continues in it's upchannel, with a tiny pullback today (started the day further in the uptrend, tho).
ReplyDeleteTonight's the night for Grease.
I am exiting all my positions today and waiting for the Grease event, then will be trading the direction of that trend in the morning.
I expect a sell-off towards the close, because I think a lot of other traders will fear for fear itself.
The ramifications of the event will push the market one direction or another. If the push is up, I'm buying back full positions. If the push is down, I'm waiting for the pullback to end, and restarting my positions, just like always: buy a little, wait for the trade to go in my direction, then add on strength.
That's my plan.
Have a look at
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/EURUSD
The Euro has my favorite "Eve and Adam" pattern. On the 5-day chart.
It's a kind of cup-and-handle, but I like "Eve and Adam" more better.
Usually this is a topping pattern, and the market enters into the pattern from below. Let's see what happens with the Euro from here. The Euro down means the market down (usually).
Rock - As you know I have been bullish on a pullback, so this is just one more thing that says we are headed that way, I hope we do get a real correction as I would eventually like to get back in the game.
DeleteMutt
For all you astrological traders out there:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/giant-solar-storm-headed-for-earth-could-disrupt-power-grid-air-travel/article2361702/
(I know, I know, we don't like the globeandmail)
Rock - I just read the article and it sounds interesting, but I am not worried......YET!!!!
ReplyDeleteMutt
The push looks like up to me. Euro's stronger. CDSs are lower. I wonder why.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, like I said, I'll be buying back full positions.
Rock Even though I was seeing what I thought should have been a longer and steeper correction, I would have to agree with you.
DeleteI am still very much a novice and I know every market is different and that it will behave how it wants to behave and not how we think it should, but I still do not trust it.
Mangy Mutt
Greek ANA reports that there's 80% participation in the deal.
ReplyDeleteAs (I think) Mannwich said, there's still no growth in the Greek economy. I saw a greek economist on Bloomie this AM who said that the austerity measures have started to reduce the greek GDP.
Bloomie reports that 60% of the bonds are pledged to the new deal. That may be 80% of the bondholders, like ANA says.
Bloomie reports that there are currently 4300 CDS contracts out there totaling about 3.2B
According to Bloomie, this swap will trigger the credit event. What happens next?
Buy Buy Buy Buy!!!!
Exactly Rock. Why does nobody mention this outside of the blogs? Where is the economic growth going to come from in Greece to reverse this downward spiral? As PK has mentioned, I hope for their sake the confidence fairy does show up soon.
DeleteNew article. Obama wants to help investors in property.
ReplyDeleteSee
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/03/08/new-obama-housing-strategy-flip-this-bailout/
Of course, the writer doesn't know what she's talking about. We investors have to pay an additional 1% over the standard owner-occupied rates and this is what's going away in May. I will of course refinance, but it may be that some of the banks won't be offering any relief, so I may have to change banks, like to HSBC or a chinese bank.
It's interesting these people don't do any research, they just write.
Rock - What is this "research" you speak of?
DeleteThat sounds like a lot of work...Research....
Mutt
I wonder when old Tyler's head will explode over at ZH. Sucks waiting (and pining) for the end of the world.
ReplyDeleteMannwich - EVERYONE knows the world is not going to end untill this winter solstis.
DeleteTyler is just being all silly.
Mutt
Austerity's ugliness. But it MUST be done!! MUST be done!! Absurd. And needlessly tragic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/opinion/kristof-in-athens-austeritys-ugliness.html?ref=opinion
It's a sad article.
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid it's coming here, too. But we've existed on borrowed money for too long, so we have to learn to live within our means.
I don't pretend to know how to do that.
Rock - I very much believe many people have been living their life style soley because they were able to borrow as much money as they were.
DeleteI honestly feel badly for the under 24 people who believed going to college was the way to go, if they and their parents when into debt to fund college, there is probably a good chance they will not be able to pay off their student loans.
Mutt
Mass debt jubilee, a big middle finger to bankers, press the giant reset button and start over?
DeleteIf only it were that easy....
DeleteMutt
And an overhaul of the current debt-based, banker-controlled monetary system? That's what Steve Keen proposes, I believe. People over bankers and financial elites.
Delete3rd straight month of job creation over 200K. Bucky's stronger. Market's up.
ReplyDeleteA weekly loss in Treasuries. Maybe money's coming out of T's and moving to the market.
Mutt:
ReplyDeleteGood article at
http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/points-of-interest/
Also, at the bottom, there are references to some good precious metal/oil blogs.
Well, I did good. I bought SKF, a full position at 2:30 (I figured they'd leak the info early) then sold at the turnaround at 2:56.
ReplyDeleteabout $0.50 profit. Not bad for a half-hour's work.
then I brought some dry powder out and blew a few holes with market orders, and am up a total of .61%, not bad.
I thought the greek default would be a braxton hick.
I look around at a bunch of blogs, and it seems everybody is expecting a pullback. I'm in 3 half-positions over the weekend, I expect we'll see how the system moves in a positive manner and on Monday, I expect to see a pop.
This time I traded my opinion, and not the tape. "Will see".
I ran some screeners today. I looked at improved revenues for 2011 and 2012.
ReplyDeleteThere were 68 companies who improved revenues 25% in 2011 (because revenues were so low from 2010) but only 6 have increased revenues at that rate for 2012. They are:
AAPL AMZN QCOM PCLN JOY VTR
This is not profits, not earnings, but revenues (sales).
Joy has had quite a pullback. But they are coal, and everybody's converting to nat gas. I even saw an article where somebody proposed to change cars over to use nat gas. I actually looked into it, and I could do it in my Vette pretty easilyl However, it's illegal because it modifies the emissions, specifically the throttle body.
Sigh.