So for trading, we’re still inside the pennant. Here’s the SPY
I expect the pennant to complete. No new news to break us in either direction, but I feel that when we do break, it will be a significant tradable trend.
What I’m doing is watching the very short term trends and playing very small. The last time we got this kind of chop, I didn’t adjust my plays, and ended up losing money. So this time I’ll be smarter and just hold back, getting out overnight.
Today I expect a move up, the job numbers are likely to be “better than expected”, so I think we’ll get a partial retrace, but that’s likely to be a head-fake. So I’ll play a little toward the upside and then get out.
@Emmanuel117:
ReplyDeleteIf I read that article right, is that inflation rate 100% per year with a 6% per year GDP growth?.
Maybe I don't understand.
Anyway, Bloomberg has been saying on TV to get out of BRICs.
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteBRIC were WS's creation. Carry trade from the West(particularly U.S. and Eu) and Japan fueled all that growth. Easy foreign money, western-know-how and local negative int rates.
India's growth number(I've seen 3%) will largely depend on the direction of the U$D. India just did a rupee swap with Japan(link later).
I think the govt. is more concerned about inflation than growth numbers. Numbers are for traders and way to attract foreign dough.
ICan
@Emmy
ReplyDeleteFurther to your link from previous thread, the author is questionable. I've stopped reading Stephanie Nolan. She writes a blog from India for the G&M and usually writes about the social issues through "westner eyes".
India has come a long way assimilating minorities(if you call them such -women, poor of lower classes, etc.). It's very similar to the affirmative action in the U.S.
There is quota for women/poor based on caste in every conceivable section of the federal, state, municiple governments. Even in higher education(medical, engg. etc too). It's reverse discrimination. A poor higher class person may be qualified for a job that may be given to a rich, less qualified person just based on caste system.
Caste-based stories sell in the G&M. Look at Nolan's past stories. Sure India had problems in the past. So did the U.S. with coloured(black) people. Indian PM is a Sikh, President is a woman, Congress party prz is a Christian, Speaker of the lower housr(most impt) is a woman(lower class). Some Judges, State ministers, Police officers, are lower class.
Nolan is full of crap.
ICan
One lesson I've learned from Nolan:
ReplyDeleteIf your are reading about a foreign subject, never take that reporters word for granted. Read several other reporters and do your own due dilegence. People filter info throught their own frame of reference.
ICan
"Japan,India seal $15 billion currency deal". bloomberg.com
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-28/japan-india-seal-15-billion-currency-swap-arrangement-to-shore-up-rupee.html
ICan
Btw, G&M is a "CONservative" newspaper(endorsed the current Conservative govt. Is owned by Bell Globemedia who also control CTV. Always complain about the CBC(Cdn. PBS if you will). Yet, Bell Canada is also kind of an oligoply(no open compitition with foreign cos.).
ReplyDeleteICan
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteI am biased toward India. For me India is still a second home and my investment time horizon is my life time. I am not a trader in Indian euities. Funny, that I don't own any shares/bonds. just real estate(agri.land and residential r/e).
Indian r/e was used to be like Italian or Greek r/e. People never sold their properties. Just passed on to next generation. It's has changed with the boom. People certainly have become, "flippers".
So be cautious when you read my comments.
ICan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteYou think the G&M should be added to a list we might put as reference links of news sources or not?
Happy holidays everyone. Haven't been on in awhile, nor reading. Busy with year end projects.
ReplyDeleteHope everyone was profitable this year.
@Todd,
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year to you too.
ICan
Rock(12:47)
ReplyDeleteIt's up to you. I Do Not think it's a great link.
ICan
Indians are savers.
ReplyDelete"NHAI retail bond sale oversubscribed".
"The National Highways Authority of India's(NHAI)first set of retail bonds has received bids for nearly five times".
http;//www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20111230/biz.htm
ICan
Western mutlinationals paying bribes:
ReplyDelete"Deutsche Telekom in $95 million bribery settlement".
"German phone company Deutsche Telecom AG and a Hungarian unit will pay more than $95 million to settle U.S. criminal and civil probes into the bribery of government officials in Macedonia and Montenergro".
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-deutschetelekom-charges-idUSTRE7B50ks20111229
Michael Lewis weighs in. This is brilliant!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/12/28/bloomberg_articlesLWXKOQ1A74E9.DTL&ao=all
JP Morgan Chase Mic-Checked at Princeton:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ0J_HUsRaI&feature=share
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI think we all appreciate your opinion. Thanks.
OK, how bout www.sfgate.com?
Interesting article about the trend of bankruptcies there, but other stuff seems to be chatter.
Oops, the link for the article is:
ReplyDeletehttp://sfgate.bloomberg.com/SFChronicle/Story?docId=1376-LWZJNF0YHQ0X01-5PB3LDV5MPU1HGRVHDF7KRQN8D
We had an inside day yesterday. Inside days are key to market indirection. This morning, we opened a tiny bit lower, but the dollar is lower as well. My indicators are all up, so we'll see who wins, the market or the dollar.
ReplyDeleteI'm just watching, waiting for some trend to start. I made coffee money yesterday, but certainly not scotch money.
Hurry up to nowhere!
ReplyDelete2011 that was.
S&P will close at the same point it opened!
Traders mkt certainly.
ICan
A good short read. Via ritholtz.com
ReplyDelete"What Deleveraging?" By James Bianco.
"What is this delveraging you continue to babble about...?"
Public/private debt charts.
ICan
^ the link.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that the MSM doesn't call out the politicians to back up their wild-ass statements very often.
I think it may be because MSM reporters like their jobs, and don't want to make the fabricators of the truth uncomfortable.
Interesting term, "fabricators of the truth".
I have the Bloomberg article bookmarked, and go back to read it every once in awhile.
I sure wish we had something better to investigate than Hurd's sex life.
ReplyDeleteHe is a human being. He has one. He has a job too...why isn't there at least equal time paid to what he's doing there?
I used to work for a company where the CEO was considered to be a loose cannon. Before the staff meeting, a couple of other guys and I would get together to decide at whom that cannon should be aimed, and how we would get it aimed there. It was self-preservation: when were successful, none of us got shot.
I have to wonder if the Bloomberg article isn't pointing that out, and I have to wonder if monitoring Hurd's sex life isn't another instance.
And here's a little humor for your new year's entertainment:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/v/KV-RqPtT2PU?version=3&feature=player_embedded
Just need SPY to close above 126 to take me to a full cash position to end the year. Either way 12% makes me feel good for the year.
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteSome Cdn financial sites(including G&M's report on business).
www.financialpost.com
www.bnn.ca
And a story you like:
"How a Montreal company won the race to build the world's cheapest tablet". http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/how-a-montreal-company-won-the-race-to-build-the-worlds-cheapest-tablet/
ICan
@Todd:
ReplyDeleteGreat job!!!
@All:
Happy New Year! Drive safe. Drink at home.
I'm out now closing my tax positions and will restart next year. The tax is so much easier to figure out when all the trades for the year are closed.
I think we might see some sell-off towards the end of the day, and I'm thinking we might have yet another inside day. I don't think this will be the springboard to move us to the "buy order" or "sell short order", the pennant looks like it will resolve the middle of the month.
But again, I lose my opinion when the market opens so I won't lose my money.
Over the weekend, I'll be putting up a post of my watch list and why it's my watch list.
Now, I'm taking my grandson up to Napa to enjoy a little countryside and lack of crowds. I expect tomorrow to be the day of hoards of folks up there.
And thanks, ICan for the MCD--I made enough for several quarter-pounders. With cheese, no less.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI found the article at
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/how-a-montreal-company-won-the-race-to-build-the-worlds-cheapest-tablet/article2282337/
Politicians derail reforms for their own short-term gains.
ReplyDelete"Singh caps 'Annus Horribilis' with anti-graft law stymied by upper house".www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-29/uproar-over-india-graft-laws-sinks-singh-vote.html
India is luck to have this guy(79 years of age) at the helm, if some corrupts would let him do his job!
"The prime minister's record of attempts to unshackle the economy from regulation, bureaucracy, and corruption date back to his tenure as finance minister in the early 1990s when he dismantled government monoplies, cut tariffs and welcomed foreign investment".
On the issue of corruption,"At least 12 whistle blowers were killed and 40 assulted after seeking information under a new Right-to-Information Act aimed at exposing local graft....Enacted by Singh six years ago, the legislation became the most powerful tool for fighting wrongdoing in politics adn business..".
ICan
Happy New Year everyone.
ReplyDeleteEmmanuel and Denise were great contributors to this blog as well as the present admin. are.
Thanks everyone! Learned a lot from you.
ICan
Happy New Year all. Thought this was a good read. To an even more interesting 2012!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2011/11/28/maximizing-shareholder-value-the-dumbest-idea-in-the-world/
Happy 2012 everyone! Lots of good trades, or just staying on the sidelines;). Hope you're enjoying time with your loved ones.
ReplyDeleteI promised to have a post ready for y'all about my watch list, but I've had a system failure, and am just now able to come back to life. It's hard to get IT assistance on the holidays. Anyway, they brought me a new 8-way 64 bit machine, and I'm re-installing now. When I power this sucker up, it brings to mind the Mazda "Zoom-Zoom" commercial.
ReplyDeleteI'll be working on the post tomorrow. Looks like the market's closed tomorrow, anyway.
A Happy, Flourishing City With No Advertising
ReplyDeleteWhat a new year present for these Cdn workers..
ReplyDelete"Caterpillar, Rio Lock Out Workers in Canada". http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203550304577136533843111036.html
"Union officials said Caterpillar's latest proposal would halve wages and reduce benefits...(meaning) hourly pay of C$16.50 for most workers from C$34".
Great article, emmy! I'm not surprised.
ReplyDelete"Top Canadian CEOs make average worker's salary in three hours". http://www.financialpost.com
ReplyDelete$44,366 in 3 hours.
Had a feeling we'd get a market pump this morning. All is well, I tell you!
ReplyDeleteWhere is everyone? Hello? It's back to bidness here!
ReplyDeleteBeen having some trouble with my new computer. As a result, my communications here will be spotty for a few days. Still no report on my watch list.
ReplyDeleteI hate these big overnight jumps, they screw up all the charts and all my numbers. However, look for a pullback and then a move higher today. I expect the close to be somewhere around my 128 buy order in the above chart. Look for volume. Today's start has double the volume we had last week; still not great, but much much better. Hopefully we'll see some follow through volume tomorrow and the next day. If we do, this is our breakout to the upside, until the news from europe brings us back to earth.
I think.
"Will see."
From the "um, where have you been" file.
ReplyDeleteCohan: Did Psychopaths take over Wall Street?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/did-psychopaths-take-over-wall-street-asylum-commentary-by-william-cohan.html
Another one. Looks like what we've known for a while is becoming openly discussed.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/brian-basham-beware-corporate-psychopaths--they-are-still-occupying-positions-of-power-6282502.html
Morning folks! Happy New Year!
ReplyDeleteManny - regarding our "Sociopaths run corporate America" meme ;-)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/did-psychopaths-take-over-wall-street-asylum-commentary-by-william-cohan.html
Cohan: Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street?
The money quote!
ReplyDeleteHow do people with such obvious personality flaws make it to the top of seemingly successful corporations? Boddy says psychopaths take advantage of the “relative chaotic nature of the modern corporation,” including “rapid change, constant renewal” and high turnover of “key personnel.” Such circumstances allow them to ascend through a combination of “charm” and “charisma,” which makes “their behaviour invisible” and “makes them appear normal and even to be ideal leaders.”
@Manny & Thor: great psychopath stuff ! I believe the fact of them being psychopath helps them get ahead of the crowd too. Having left behind morality, they can do whatever it takes to make it to the top.
ReplyDeleteI'm not suggesting that abandoning your ethics is the only way to wealth or power, though. Just happens..
ReplyDeleteLooks like American Taliban religious nut-bag Santorum going to win Iowa caucus. Amazing. The idiocy of this country never ceases to amaze me.
ReplyDeleteAaaah, it was 86 here today. Supposed to be hotter tomorrow. Thank you global warming!
ReplyDeleteManny - that is frightening isn't it? This is what happens when you let the crazies run the show. Can you imagine a Bachman presidency? What a joke.
ReplyDeleteThe Tea Party/religious crazies on the right are going to hand Obama the election this year, unless we get another '08 type of economic and/or market debacle.
ReplyDeleteagreed, and we're as likely to have another muddle through year as not. . .
ReplyDeleteI agree, Thor. I had thought the house might come down but now think too many are making that call as well for it to happen.
ReplyDeleteSomething else is going to happen, maybe even decent growth, at least here in the U.S. Question is, will it hold long enough for the election because eventually this house of cards is coming down again. Only question there is when, but I get the sense that Obama, like Bush before him, will squeak through vs. a very mediocre opponent (or worse) and continue to frustrate the shit out of his detractors.
Manny - I wonder though, could we end up like Japan? Could we muddle through with shallow recoveries and recessions for the next decade or two?
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYour 11:12
I think you're right. I saw a talking head on Bloomberg say "doom and gloom" and the Bloomie TH say "why do you think the short term bond spreads are coming down? and got him to say "because they're doing something about it" then the Bloomie TH asked "how long can they continue doing something about it? Until the short term spreads span into the long term spreads!"
Yep. I think so too.
Still fixing my computer, but at least I got our mail system up. I'm printing again. This is a newly hardened version of XP64, and after I relearn how to create my hotload, I think it will be fine.
I'm looking for a turn-around Tuesday followed by more up up and away trading. Will see. I didn't like closing lower than the open today, but we'll see how far we dip tomorrow.
@WolfStreet:
ReplyDeleteMy son is a psychopath.
I'm not convinced they know they are doing that. I guarantee they don't recognize the symptoms in themselves.
As my son was growing up, I tried to get him some help. But in order to change your life, you A)have to see the merit in the change, and B) want to make the change for some internalized reason.
My son had neither A nor B.
I agree, Rock. I'm not entirely sure they know either, but if too many of them attain important leadership positions everywhere in our culture over time, then we've got a big problem. That's one reason how/why revolutions start.
ReplyDeleteThink BR is right on point here. And who actually believes that banks' earnings are anything but a fraudulent fairy tale at this point? I guess it doesn't matter when there's a concerted effort to pump a sector or stock in their little games they play with us. I'd like to know just how it's going to be better, unless stocks move in a big direction one way or another? Sideways action in a tight range gets these banks nowhere in terms of trading profits.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/bank-earnings-forecast-57/#comments
Thought this was really good (and likely accurate). Why Best Buy is Going out of Business
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/larrydownes/2012/01/02/why-best-buy-is-going-out-of-business-gradually/5/
Another late to the AT party. Better late than never, I guess.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/opinion/bring-back-boring-banks.html?ref=contributors
MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse: sources
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/04/us-mfglobal-goldman-idUSTRE80301V20120104
My Wednesday post is up. Yes, that means a new post is available.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich: I heard MFGlobal *bought* euro assets from MFGlobal......interesting article
oops I mean
ReplyDelete@Mannwich: I heard MFGlobal *bought* euro assets from GS.....interesting article