Man, I was buried in a database all day and just got home. WTF with congress? I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Fascinating to watch, I never knew I'd get to live through so much history. Sheesh.
What's it going to look like a year from now? We should have an end of the year predictions post. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama stays, and both the House and Senate flip.
I remember when I made my vow to keep my fluids up-to-date in my car. That was a bad few days.
Well, the PMs disappointed me with no policy statement to move the markets up, but the housing numbers being up, and the retail numbers being up from last year may be enough to do it.
I had a very strange day yesterday; had some errands to run and when I looked at what was going on in the market, I saw many of my indicators going higher, but the market going lower. Also, it seems that a huge portion of the volume is happening at the open and the close, and anybody with a little money can move the market.
We got WolfStreet's 120.29 close. Now we'll see if we get the santa rally or not. Just a few days left.....
A concern I have is that the retail numbers are down from last month.
From comments on Dec 19, the Spanish t-bill auction went well.
I haven't heard about the 22B greek debt falling due, but they got a bunch of money from the IMF, and we saw the news that the Eurozone will donate 150B Euros into the IMF, so Greece's head may be above water for now. "Will See".
Here's my radar now: --Wednesday, Dec. 21: Portuguese T-bill auction. Swearing in of Mariano Rajoy as Spanish prime minister and disclosure of new cabinet expected around this time. ECB 7-day dollar tender.
--Thursday, Dec. 22: EUR980 million of Greek debt falls due. New Spanish PM to take oath.
--Friday, Dec. 23: Potential first cabinet meeting of new Spanish government and approval of first economic measures, possibly including an emergency budget decree ahead of a formal 2012 budget.
Rock - (9:34) "to keep my fluids up-to-date in my car" Did you also change your blinker fluid, you do not want to be in the middle of a turn and run out of blinks....
It is also important to make sure you change the air inside your tires, you do not want to be running your car on tires that still has summer air in them, when it gets cold out you get much better MPG with Winter air.
Rock (9:34) Again a couple months ago, all the patterns that I was watch broke down and I started noticing if you did not make your move into the close of the market, the next day you would pretty much be locked out.
Like today for example, if you did not buy in last night you are not going to make any money buying in today, especially knowing tomorrow could be a down day.
At the same time, if you would have gone short last night you would have lost your shorts this morning.
I have been trying to watch the close to see if there is any type of pattern that is emerging, but sadly I can not figure it out.
Your new job must be in management. It's showing already.......Good luck.
:-)>
@ Market Open and Close
I too have studied that, including traffic patterns, movement of the big guns of the dow and spy, and have pretty much come to the conclusion that if you don't trade in the after hours, and if you don't have a crystal ball tied into the news futures, you can't trade overnight. So in my day trading account, I'm out every evening (except for one or two where you already pointed out, I lost my shorts) now.
There was a time when the Plunger team was effective in calling the banks to tell them to buy, in order to move the market up (during QE and QE2). I got pretty good at predicting the traffic pattern, and made a significantly positive return. But those days are gone. Now instead of the plunger team, we have the Eurozone PMs. I mean, not even Geithner is competing with them.
But in my near-term accounts, I pretty much swing trade with the market, staying in overnight, and it's worked quite well. Since Thor put up a new post today, on Friday I'll put up some swing trades that I've made, just for talking purposes, and when folks don't have anything to do after the presents are opened, they could have a look.
But if I ever figure out how to trade overnight, I'll let you know.
BTW, after it's pullback this AM, I started a position in POT. I don't inhale....but it smells nice. I think you or somebody mentioned CENX, and that's looking good to me again as well.
Thor -One of my first jobs was at a pharmacy in a town of about 3,000 people and there were probably another 2,000 in the out lying area. Well there were 3 pharmacies trying to vie for these peoples business.
So over the years each pharmacy would offer their own unique services, to attract the local business. Among the services at the pharmacy I worked, we collected phone payments, one of the other pharmacies collected eclectic bills.
And since the bills were normally due on or about the same day, it would force people into both pharmacies and it would never fail, we would always get someone who would say “Ledwich is having a sale on their candy (or what not) why don’t you give me a discount on your candy (or what not)”
Well for one thing we sold Russell Stover candy and Ledwich did not, you want the candy on sale, walk across the street and one block down and get it, if on the other hand you want Russell Stover candy, either get it at full price or wait for it to go on sale. And even though everything was pretty much equal, over the course of the time this type of silliness caused a serious rift between the owners and sometimes the customers.
Our sister sight, has many good people with great minds, that know what they are talking about when it comes not only to trading, but also about life in general. But we did not always see eye to eye on issues, so now there are two sites.
Not that we can’t, but we do not talk about football on our site, just not our thing, so if I want a certain type of candy, then I do not demand that it is sold at the place I am at, but I go to where it is.
We are no better or worse then them just different and I believe they are realizing the same thing that you and a few others did a year ago that much of the silliness was/is caused by one person who demanded Russell Stover candy at a discount.
For the most part, the core group of people at the other site have always been accommodating and free thinking enough to express their points of views in informative ways It is not that I think, believe or even want everyone to get along as often times it is a well stated difference of opinion that causes us to see things in a different light. So it is not that I want to even try and be a piece keeper, I just believe as long as everyone is respectful there is no reason why people can not enjoy the services of both pharmacies….
Mutt - three sites actually, the sister site broke in two awhile ago as well. I hadn't popped in there in four or five months. The more things change . . . :-)
Now that it's been many months, that's actually why Denise left. I suggested that at some future date, we might want to try to reconcile.
Anyhoo, I love our site. Have been super busy at work the last six months and haven't been able to be around as much as I'd like. Hopefully the work will taper off after the new year!
Manny - those kinds of men won't "get it" until their either put in prison, or dragged out of their offices by a mob and hung. The arrogance and send of self worth runs that high.
If you remember way back to three years ago when we met, we all had a conversation about whether or not those in power today were sociopaths. I think the last three years have answered that question for us pretty well.
Mutt - Heh, yes I did take that pic. It's The Nile. It was more in response to winter though, than smooth sailing. We all know what happened in Egypt two weeks after we left ;-)
"S&P 500 Stk Buybacks Increase For Ninth Consecutive Qtr; Q3 2011 Buybacks Up 48.8% Over Q3 2010"
Corporations have the cash. This is how they're using it.
Think the corporations with the most cash will move their stock the most? I guess that goes without saying.
So look at free cash flow and cash on hand, and you're likely to recognize stocks that will outperform the market (but still track the market, beta is high.
ICan - I've been thinking about that this morning as well. I heard on NPR that the ECB is providing more than 600 Billion in loans (was it three year loans?) to EU Banks. If they're not allowed to print, where is that money coming from? The Fed??????
I commented about it earlier but erased the comment until I talked to my realtor friend.
Actually in the bay area, the number of short sales and real sales are up for his agency. They are getting multiple offers even on the bank-owned properties--they take backup offers should the short sale fall through from the lender's perspective.
But again it shows the lack of accuracy of the reporting agencies who are supposed to be credible.
Now it look like there's an additional 15% overhang.
I'm surprised the USG doesn't adjust their housing price down in order to get the CPI up. I can't remember but I don't think the housing glut affects the GDP numbers.
At Via Meadia we’ve been saying for some time that the world underestimates the chances that the Obama administration will go to war with Iran over its nuclear program.
After Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s interview with CBS, it’s time for the world to reassess. The administration, Secretary Panetta makes clear will not allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb. Period. If Washington must bomb Iranian facilities in order to stop them, Obama will bomb.
hrmm - imagine what oil prices would do. The administration might see that as a crisis with a silver lining: 8 dollar gas would certainly help move us away from fossil fuels faster.
The NAR released the benchmark revisions today. From the NAR:
Also released today are benchmark revisions to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.
The impact on GDP is from a reduction in the estimate for Brokers' commissions on sale of structures. That reduction will be minor.
I try to do the right thing as well Rock. You know probably better than I, that it is hard to make it in business today always doing the right thing :-/
It's somewhat slanted, but apparently evidence shows that the private sector led the way to the bottom. Consumers value lower prices, regardless of the consequences.
Sadly, you're right, Rock. Consumers (or "people") don't connect the damn dots before they do things. That's how we got here and continue to be stuck here.
And, Excellent article. The guy has his head screwed on right.
One ticker on my watch list right now is VMW. Big capitulation yesterday. On the 19th they announced Mac and Linux support (been working on that awhile). I think it's down on Oracle news, the YOY earnings growth is 100% for last quarter. Free cash flow is awesome.
Granted, the P/E is high, but I believe in that product, and they're broadening their penetration, and as the swing to Macs progresses, their revenues are bound to rise.
Because the 25% fall was so rapid, none of my indicators have caught up, but I'm taking a risk on this one and starting a small position.
Rock (8:02) - Is there an app for this iGod you speak of?
Never could really understand this hole God vs Religious thing.
Now I do believe there is somewhere out there (Or within us) a superior being, but it seems like man always wants to show iGod who he thinks is boss - Man.
And sets up rules and laws for other less powerful men to follow and of course if you do not follow these laws that man put into place, well you are a sinner.
I think in some ways you could make the analogy of today's Wall Street being the priests of yesteryear.
They make the laws and we are supposed to follow.
Anyway if you want to get me an iGod app for Christmas, that would be great.
Thor (10:49pm) - I read the head lines every morning, isn't that enuff of an American Horror Story....
Actually I do not think I have even heard of it, is it a movie or a series?
One of my buddies at work got into watching Walking Dead last year so we "anaylize" it every Monday morning, of course this year the reviews were in the toliet, he tried to get me into Hell On Wheels, but so far I have been able to resist the temptation.
Manny and Rock, re: consumers looking for the lowest prices. I tend to read that as "people are getting poorer and poorer so they're being forced to look for the lowest prices". For the most part I think American consumers are idiots, most of them see no problem at all with buying Japanese cars and shopping at WalMart while at the same time complaining about lost American jobs. . .
Mutt - no, it's a series on FX that came out this year, nominated for a Golden Globe. I honestly think it's the best thing on TV right now, and that includes Empire Boardwalk, which if anyone hasn't gotten into yet, should. The writers do an excellent job at tying in the problems of the 20's with the problems we have now. Not much has changed :-/
ooooh, things is good. I've been trying to make sense of things relentless "Things are Really getting better things time guys" meme3 from the MSM......
Mutt - yes, the season just finished, it's one of those shows that constantly has you thinking. I so hope they'll be able to replicate season one to season 2!
Manny - hahah, he looks like a little prick doesn't he? One of these days people like him will fall hard. As screwed as I think we are, I think the tone has changed, and hey, the GOP sure did blow itself up, and that only took a year!
At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.
There are many possible doomsday scenarios for the U.S. economy and financial markets, explains Mr. Bernstein, and Rep. Paul’s portfolio protects against only one of them: unexpected inflation accompanied by a collapse in the value of the dollar. If deflation (to name one other possibility) occurs instead, “this portfolio is at great risk” because of its lack of bonds and high exposure to gold.
At my friend's horsefarm in Palo Alto, it was 27 degrees. Several things broke that have never broken before. Man, that's cold. Singapore is looking better. Or maybe I should move down to LA.
Anyway, for anyone following POT, they had a nice pullback. I added. I now have a full position on.
SU has not done me good. And, it's too choppy for us trend followers.
I put up my Wednesday post. I didn't do it Wednesday because I really liked Thor's pic, but we're getting up there in comments. So it's available. now.
Whaddya know, Ron Paul, everyone's straight talking libertarian hero isn't what he's portrayed himself to be...looks like yet another nutjob to me. Are there any non-crazy political peeps anymore? Has the idiocracy truly descended upon us?
Manny - between his bets on the collapse of America, as well as those news letters, I'll bet this is the end of him on the national stage, same for Bachman, the only thing running for President did for these guys is to prove to the voting public how ape shit crazy they are and how dangerous they would be for the country.
Man, I was buried in a database all day and just got home. WTF with congress? I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Fascinating to watch, I never knew I'd get to live through so much history. Sheesh.
ReplyDeleteWhat's it going to look like a year from now? We should have an end of the year predictions post. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama stays, and both the House and Senate flip.
Mutt - My goodness you have been a glutton for punishment lately :-) Your heart is bigger than your head! ;-)
ReplyDelete@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteGL with your new job.
@Thor,
Great foto. Beautiful sunny warm day.
ICan
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteI can empathize with you.
I remember when I made my vow to keep my fluids up-to-date in my car. That was a bad few days.
Well, the PMs disappointed me with no policy statement to move the markets up, but the housing numbers being up, and the retail numbers being up from last year may be enough to do it.
I had a very strange day yesterday; had some errands to run and when I looked at what was going on in the market, I saw many of my indicators going higher, but the market going lower. Also, it seems that a huge portion of the volume is happening at the open and the close, and anybody with a little money can move the market.
We got WolfStreet's 120.29 close. Now we'll see if we get the santa rally or not. Just a few days left.....
A concern I have is that the retail numbers are down from last month.
From comments on Dec 19, the Spanish t-bill auction went well.
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard about the 22B greek debt falling due, but they got a bunch of money from the IMF, and we saw the news that the Eurozone will donate 150B Euros into the IMF, so Greece's head may be above water for now. "Will See".
Here's my radar now:
--Wednesday, Dec. 21: Portuguese T-bill auction. Swearing in of Mariano Rajoy as Spanish prime minister and disclosure of new cabinet expected around this time. ECB 7-day dollar tender.
--Thursday, Dec. 22: EUR980 million of Greek debt falls due. New Spanish PM to take oath.
--Friday, Dec. 23: Potential first cabinet meeting of new Spanish government and approval of first economic measures, possibly including an emergency budget decree ahead of a formal 2012 budget.
Thor - Not sure exactly what you are refrencing, but I am assuming it is not just the new job LOL
ReplyDeleteIf it is that...That is another reason I have made few comments here lately as sometimes it is best not to mix certain things.
That is a great picture by the way, did you take it?
Mutt
WolfStreet, Ican and everyone else, thank you for the well wishes on the new job.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Rock - (9:34) "to keep my fluids up-to-date in my car" Did you also change your blinker fluid, you do not want to be in the middle of a turn and run out of blinks....
ReplyDeleteIt is also important to make sure you change the air inside your tires, you do not want to be running your car on tires that still has summer air in them, when it gets cold out you get much better MPG with Winter air.
Mutt
Rock (9:34) Again a couple months ago, all the patterns that I was watch broke down and I started noticing if you did not make your move into the close of the market, the next day you would pretty much be locked out.
ReplyDeleteLike today for example, if you did not buy in last night you are not going to make any money buying in today, especially knowing tomorrow could be a down day.
At the same time, if you would have gone short last night you would have lost your shorts this morning.
I have been trying to watch the close to see if there is any type of pattern that is emerging, but sadly I can not figure it out.
Mutt
OK, here's our Santa Rally? Almost like the algos looking for ANY headline or reason to rally and give it to us.
ReplyDeleteAll is apparently well again.
Pretty amazing (& scary) stuff in Kazakhstan.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/mark-ames-the-massacre-everyone-ignored-up-to-70-striking-oil-workers-killed-in-kazakhstan-by-us-supported-dictator.html
Global elites clamping down on global sheeple everywhere.
@Mannwich(11:11)
ReplyDeleteAlgos got the news! Santa's freed from EU jail.
Hard to have confidence in one's long term situation to then go out and spend (and get the economy going again) with a job climate like this one.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/20/new-blue-collar-temp-warehouses_n_1158490.html
@ Blinker Fluid
ReplyDeleteI got for those. Thanks for reminding me.
Your new job must be in management. It's showing already.......Good luck.
:-)>
@ Market Open and Close
I too have studied that, including traffic patterns, movement of the big guns of the dow and spy, and have pretty much come to the conclusion that if you don't trade in the after hours, and if you don't have a crystal ball tied into the news futures, you can't trade overnight. So in my day trading account, I'm out every evening (except for one or two where you already pointed out, I lost my shorts) now.
There was a time when the Plunger team was effective in calling the banks to tell them to buy, in order to move the market up (during QE and QE2). I got pretty good at predicting the traffic pattern, and made a significantly positive return. But those days are gone. Now instead of the plunger team, we have the Eurozone PMs. I mean, not even Geithner is competing with them.
But in my near-term accounts, I pretty much swing trade with the market, staying in overnight, and it's worked quite well. Since Thor put up a new post today, on Friday I'll put up some swing trades that I've made, just for talking purposes, and when folks don't have anything to do after the presents are opened, they could have a look.
But if I ever figure out how to trade overnight, I'll let you know.
BTW, after it's pullback this AM, I started a position in POT. I don't inhale....but it smells nice. I think you or somebody mentioned CENX, and that's looking good to me again as well.
Rock - I am not sure if anyone else has also done anything with CENX, but that is one that I have made a couple few dollars on and watch.
ReplyDeleteThey tend to stay in a pretty tight pattern, I would buy when it reached x then sell when it reached x+y.
Mutt
Morning!! Late start :-)
ReplyDeleteMutt - I was referring to your peacemaking in other local's. . . if you catch my drift
Wow - California brings in $100 Billion in tourism. I did not know that!
ReplyDeleteThor -One of my first jobs was at a pharmacy in a town of about 3,000 people and there were probably another 2,000 in the out lying area. Well there were 3 pharmacies trying to vie for these peoples business.
ReplyDeleteSo over the years each pharmacy would offer their own unique services, to attract the local business. Among the services at the pharmacy I worked, we collected phone payments, one of the other pharmacies collected eclectic bills.
And since the bills were normally due on or about the same day, it would force people into both pharmacies and it would never fail, we would always get someone who would say “Ledwich is having a sale on their candy (or what not) why don’t you give me a discount on your candy (or what not)”
Well for one thing we sold Russell Stover candy and Ledwich did not, you want the candy on sale, walk across the street and one block down and get it, if on the other hand you want Russell Stover candy, either get it at full price or wait for it to go on sale. And even though everything was pretty much equal, over the course of the time this type of silliness caused a serious rift between the owners and sometimes the customers.
Our sister sight, has many good people with great minds, that know what they are talking about when it comes not only to trading, but also about life in general. But we did not always see eye to eye on issues, so now there are two sites.
Not that we can’t, but we do not talk about football on our site, just not our thing, so if I want a certain type of candy, then I do not demand that it is sold at the place I am at, but I go to where it is.
We are no better or worse then them just different and I believe they are realizing the same thing that you and a few others did a year ago that much of the silliness was/is caused by one person who demanded Russell Stover candy at a discount.
For the most part, the core group of people at the other site have always been accommodating and free thinking enough to express their points of views in informative ways It is not that I think, believe or even want everyone to get along as often times it is a well stated difference of opinion that causes us to see things in a different light. So it is not that I want to even try and be a piece keeper, I just believe as long as everyone is respectful there is no reason why people can not enjoy the services of both pharmacies….
Mangy Mutt
Oracle missed earnings quite big-FYI. Think we're going to see more of these in the coming months.
ReplyDeleteGotta love the nerve of these people. Actually, I don't.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/20/bankers-still-whining-abo_n_1160938.html
Mutt - three sites actually, the sister site broke in two awhile ago as well. I hadn't popped in there in four or five months. The more things change . . . :-)
ReplyDeleteNow that it's been many months, that's actually why Denise left. I suggested that at some future date, we might want to try to reconcile.
Anyhoo, I love our site. Have been super busy at work the last six months and haven't been able to be around as much as I'd like. Hopefully the work will taper off after the new year!
Manny - those kinds of men won't "get it" until their either put in prison, or dragged out of their offices by a mob and hung. The arrogance and send of self worth runs that high.
ReplyDeleteIf you remember way back to three years ago when we met, we all had a conversation about whether or not those in power today were sociopaths. I think the last three years have answered that question for us pretty well.
hey also - an update on Ford and GM from a couple months ago!!
ReplyDeleteFord: - Down 2.3%
GM: - Down 21.58%
Can I pick em or what? ;-)
This is brilliant:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/billionaire-buffoons-hoisted-on-their-on-petards/#comments
Agree Thor. The global sociopaths are running the show (but also running a little scared lately).
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWill TRP.To stay above $44?
ReplyDelete@Rock,
What's the trend?
ICan
ICan - Although Thor posted a nice picture of a sail boat on calm waters and clear sky, which one might interpret as smooth sailing.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that there are a blow hards in Europe who are trying very hard to do nothing to prepare for the problems they cause.
What is the trend?
Choppy waters, with high swells and lots of rain.
Mutt
Mutt - Heh, yes I did take that pic. It's The Nile. It was more in response to winter though, than smooth sailing. We all know what happened in Egypt two weeks after we left ;-)
ReplyDeleteDid Congress Just Endorse Rendition for Americans?
ReplyDeleteOutsourcing torture and detainment of our own citizens? Let others do that dirty work?
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/12/did-congress-just-endorse-rendition-americans
One factor supporting our market firht now:
ReplyDeletefrom DJ Newswire:
"S&P 500 Stk Buybacks Increase For Ninth Consecutive Qtr; Q3 2011 Buybacks Up 48.8% Over Q3 2010"
Corporations have the cash. This is how they're using it.
Think the corporations with the most cash will move their stock the most? I guess that goes without saying.
So look at free cash flow and cash on hand, and you're likely to recognize stocks that will outperform the market (but still track the market, beta is high.
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteYou ever notice how quiet Wikileaks got?
You ever wonder why?
@Mutt,
ReplyDeleteGreat forecast. Looks like Cdn winter weather Add snow, sleet, high winds....
ICan
How to make money for free..
ReplyDeleteECB lends banks $645B at about 1% with which banks can then buy Italian, Greek bonds at 5-6%.
Wonder where ECB got the money since they aren't allowed to print:
"Germany's Bundesbank has quietly lent half a trillion euros to the ECB". marketmontage.com/2011/12/18
ICan
ICan - I've been thinking about that this morning as well. I heard on NPR that the ECB is providing more than 600 Billion in loans (was it three year loans?) to EU Banks. If they're not allowed to print, where is that money coming from? The Fed??????
ReplyDeleteDid you see this?
ReplyDeletehttp://marketmontage.com/2011/12/21/oops-they-did-it-again-nar-overestimated-home-sales-by-14-between-2007-2010/
I commented about it earlier but erased the comment until I talked to my realtor friend.
Actually in the bay area, the number of short sales and real sales are up for his agency. They are getting multiple offers even on the bank-owned properties--they take backup offers should the short sale fall through from the lender's perspective.
But again it shows the lack of accuracy of the reporting agencies who are supposed to be credible.
Now it look like there's an additional 15% overhang.
I'm surprised the USG doesn't adjust their housing price down in order to get the CPI up. I can't remember but I don't think the housing glut affects the GDP numbers.
Rock - Yes! I've been following that story the last few weeks. Yves over at NK as well as Calculated Risk have both been covering it.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen this?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/12/20/obama-moves-toward-war-with-iran/
Obama Moves Toward War With Iran
At Via Meadia we’ve been saying for some time that the world underestimates the chances that the Obama administration will go to war with Iran over its nuclear program.
After Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s interview with CBS, it’s time for the world to reassess. The administration, Secretary Panetta makes clear will not allow Iran to get a nuclear bomb. Period. If Washington must bomb Iranian facilities in order to stop them, Obama will bomb.
I wonder how credible this is?
hrmm - imagine what oil prices would do. The administration might see that as a crisis with a silver lining: 8 dollar gas would certainly help move us away from fossil fuels faster.
ReplyDeleteGreat point, Rock. They have basically vanished.
ReplyDeleteRock - from Calculated risk on the NAR article.
ReplyDeleteThe NAR released the benchmark revisions today. From the NAR:
Also released today are benchmark revisions to historic existing-home sales. The 2010 benchmark shows there were 4,190,000 existing-home sales last year, a 14.6 percent revision from the previously projected 4,908,000 sales. For the total period of 2007 through 2010, sales and inventory were downwardly revised by 14.3 percent. The revisions are expected to have a minor impact on future revisions to Gross Domestic Product.
The impact on GDP is from a reduction in the estimate for Brokers' commissions on sale of structures. That reduction will be minor.
The fact that anyone pays any attention to hack organizations like the NAR or ratings agencies is just baffling.
ReplyDeleteGet FOUR years of data wrong? Oh, my bad. Let's move on.
Manny - I would only add most of the other trade groups as well! Did you read BR's take-down of the holiday sales numbers earlier this month?
ReplyDeleteAgreed, Thor. Yes, I did. Is anything to be truly trusted anymore?
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteJust me and thee. And sometimes I'm not so sure about thee....
LOL Rock. Just peeps on this blog, right?
ReplyDeleteI dunno about that.
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteAfter MCD, take look at ADP. Do your own homework.
www.stocktradingtogo.com/2011/12/20/adp-stock-breakout-chart.
ICan
@Mannwich;
ReplyDeleteActually, it's one of the few things I remember from catechism. Or maybe not.
It's Genesis chapter 31. Has to do with iGod watching us to make sure we do the right things.
Anyway, I try to do the right things. I just wish it were more profitable.....
:-)>
@ICan: yes. But there's lots and lots of resistance at 55, don't you think?
@Rock(8:02)
ReplyDeleteI am hiding in utilities. I wonder for how long?
That ADP and MCD was for you, if you wanted to have a look.
ICan
David Rosenberg. Long MCD and utilities and..
ReplyDeleteVia. ZH.
"David Rosenberg on the differences between the buy and sell sides, and what he is investing in right now".
www.zerohedge.com/news/david-rosenberg-differences-between-buy-and-sell-sides-and-what-he-is-investing-right-now
A good read for an investor.
ICan
"How Putin won 99 percent support in Chechnya".www.reuters.com
ReplyDelete100% would've looked fake!
ICan
I try to do the right thing as well Rock. You know probably better than I, that it is hard to make it in business today always doing the right thing :-/
ReplyDeleteOr has it always been like that?
Mutt! have you watched American Horror Story yet?
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteNo. Consumers used to value character. Now consumers value price.
I read an interesting article I found off TBP's website:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-21/romney-gingrich-bid-to-pin-crisis-on-government-ignores-culprits.html
It's somewhat slanted, but apparently evidence shows that the private sector led the way to the bottom. Consumers value lower prices, regardless of the consequences.
Dear Jamie Dimon,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/dear-jamie-dimon/#comments
Sadly, you're right, Rock. Consumers (or "people") don't connect the damn dots before they do things. That's how we got here and continue to be stuck here.
Self-interested taken to raw extremes is how we got here.
ReplyDeleteSomehow I don't think this is what Adam Smith had in mind.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteThanks.
And, Excellent article. The guy has his head screwed on right.
One ticker on my watch list right now is VMW. Big capitulation yesterday. On the 19th they announced Mac and Linux support (been working on that awhile). I think it's down on Oracle news, the YOY earnings growth is 100% for last quarter. Free cash flow is awesome.
Granted, the P/E is high, but I believe in that product, and they're broadening their penetration, and as the swing to Macs progresses, their revenues are bound to rise.
Because the 25% fall was so rapid, none of my indicators have caught up, but I'm taking a risk on this one and starting a small position.
Rock (8:02) - Is there an app for this iGod you speak of?
ReplyDeleteNever could really understand this hole God vs Religious thing.
Now I do believe there is somewhere out there (Or within us) a superior being, but it seems like man always wants to show iGod who he thinks is boss - Man.
And sets up rules and laws for other less powerful men to follow and of course if you do not follow these laws that man put into place, well you are a sinner.
I think in some ways you could make the analogy of today's Wall Street being the priests of yesteryear.
They make the laws and we are supposed to follow.
Anyway if you want to get me an iGod app for Christmas, that would be great.
Mangy Mutt
Thor (10:49pm) - I read the head lines every morning, isn't that enuff of an American Horror Story....
ReplyDeleteActually I do not think I have even heard of it, is it a movie or a series?
One of my buddies at work got into watching Walking Dead last year so we "anaylize" it every Monday morning, of course this year the reviews were in the toliet, he tried to get me into Hell On Wheels, but so far I have been able to resist the temptation.
Have you been watching it at all?
Mutt
@iGod
ReplyDeleteYep. There's an app.
I hope you find it someday. I found it when I had to sleep under my daughter's bed in the hospital.
There is nothing like concern for our loved ones, to help us set or re-set our iGod app.
ReplyDeleteOften times there is too much noise in our day to day lives to hear the soft whispers of what is truly valuable.
Sounds like you may have had a scary patch with your daughter, sorry you had to go through that.
Mutt
Morning guys!
ReplyDeleteManny and Rock, re: consumers looking for the lowest prices. I tend to read that as "people are getting poorer and poorer so they're being forced to look for the lowest prices". For the most part I think American consumers are idiots, most of them see no problem at all with buying Japanese cars and shopping at WalMart while at the same time complaining about lost American jobs. . .
Mutt - no, it's a series on FX that came out this year, nominated for a Golden Globe. I honestly think it's the best thing on TV right now, and that includes Empire Boardwalk, which if anyone hasn't gotten into yet, should. The writers do an excellent job at tying in the problems of the 20's with the problems we have now. Not much has changed :-/
@Mutt. Thanks. Yep, and now all's better than well.
ReplyDeleteooooh, this is good. I've been trying to make sense of this relentless "This are REALLY getting better this time guys" meme from the MSM
ReplyDeleteSigns Point to Economy’s Rise, but Experts See a False Dawn
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/business/signs-point-to-economys-rise-but-experts-see-a-false-dawn.html?_r=1&hp
this = THINGS
ReplyDeleteooooh, things is good. I've been trying to make sense of things relentless "Things are Really getting better things time guys" meme3 from the MSM......
ReplyDeleteThor - I will put American Horror Stories on my list of things to watch.
ReplyDeleteWe have show recording, so hopefully they will have a Horror Stories marathon soon, that way I can watch them in order.
Mutt
Rock - hah, silly :P
ReplyDeleteMutt - yes, the season just finished, it's one of those shows that constantly has you thinking. I so hope they'll be able to replicate season one to season 2!
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteWTI at $100 and SU at $28. Something's got to give?
ICan
You guys will enjoy this one.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.observer.com/2001/04/25yearold-broker-lee-munson-is-swaggering-relic-of-the-boom/
Manny - that sounds like it might be a joke :-p
ReplyDeleteManny - OOOH, even better, the story is 10 years old!
ReplyDelete:-)
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-04-01/wall_street/30024477_1_drug-dealer-rome-closing-bell
Manny - hahah, he looks like a little prick doesn't he? One of these days people like him will fall hard. As screwed as I think we are, I think the tone has changed, and hey, the GOP sure did blow itself up, and that only took a year!
ReplyDeleteOooh - this is good.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul's investment portfolio
At our request, William Bernstein, an investment manager at Efficient Portfolio Advisors in Eastford, Conn., reviewed Rep. Paul’s portfolio as set out in the annual disclosure statement. Mr. Bernstein says he has never seen such an extreme bet on economic catastrophe. ”This portfolio is a half-step away from a cellar-full of canned goods and nine-millimeter rounds,” he says.
There are many possible doomsday scenarios for the U.S. economy and financial markets, explains Mr. Bernstein, and Rep. Paul’s portfolio protects against only one of them: unexpected inflation accompanied by a collapse in the value of the dollar. If deflation (to name one other possibility) occurs instead, “this portfolio is at great risk” because of its lack of bonds and high exposure to gold.
http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/12/21/the-ron-paul-portfolio/
Thor(10:06)
ReplyDeleteIt's called 'talking one's own books'.
It's all right as long it's disclosed.
ICan
38 degrees this morning! Winter sucks.
ReplyDeleteThor - Cry us a river...Well a near frozen river that is, you mean it got down to a whole 38 degrees - WOW :p
ReplyDeleteMutt
At my friend's horsefarm in Palo Alto, it was 27 degrees. Several things broke that have never broken before. Man, that's cold. Singapore is looking better. Or maybe I should move down to LA.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, for anyone following POT, they had a nice pullback. I added. I now have a full position on.
@ICan
ReplyDeleteSU has not done me good. And, it's too choppy for us trend followers.
I put up my Wednesday post. I didn't do it Wednesday because I really liked Thor's pic, but we're getting up there in comments. So it's available. now.
Rock - "Anyway, for anyone following POT"
ReplyDeleteShame on you.
Mutt
More proof of the rampant fraud that Obama still denies took place and/or is still taking place.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/22/us-foreclosures-idUSTRE7BL0MC20111222
But it's "all legal", as the cowardly O-man would say.
Whaddya know, Ron Paul, everyone's straight talking libertarian hero isn't what he's portrayed himself to be...looks like yet another nutjob to me. Are there any non-crazy political peeps anymore? Has the idiocracy truly descended upon us?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/23/ron-paul-newsletter_n_1167260.html
Has the U.S. reached a digital turning point? Very good read.
ReplyDeletehttp://annenberg.usc.edu/News%20and%20Events/News/111214CDF.aspx
Manny - between his bets on the collapse of America, as well as those news letters, I'll bet this is the end of him on the national stage, same for Bachman, the only thing running for President did for these guys is to prove to the voting public how ape shit crazy they are and how dangerous they would be for the country.
ReplyDelete@Rock: Your 11:23
ReplyDeleteDid you mean there's a newer post with fewer comments available?
Yep Yep, that's what I meant, all right.
Rock why didn't you tell us there was a new post :p
ReplyDeleteMutt