Ok, so Thor stole my day.
My day.
Like I never did it to him.
:-)
“I’ve been down so God Damn long that it looks like up to me” Doors
Bloomberg interviewed Tom DeMark. A smart man, no doubt. He predicted the latest rise to 1255, and hit the timeframe exactly. This may be a misinterpretation of what he said, but this is what I got out of it.
DeMark’s looking at 1973, and a repeat of those trading times, where in 1973 there was an August 23rd low, and an 18% rise in the same timeframe that our Oct 1 low to now exhibited.
He’s saying that he’s looking for several higher closes than yesterday, (now when you read this, day-before yesterday) then back down to 1206.
Still in our trading range, but we got a little higher on the high side. I thought we might have a little higher high because of the commitment volume we had on Aug 3-6. DeMark was saying that the 4-6 sequential higher closes to come in the next few days will be a bulltrap. He also said the fall in Nov 1973 was a sharp downside move.
Me, I’ll just trade the tape. Right now, the tape is telling me we’re headed lower. See the VXX chart below. The MACD is rising, the stochastics are heading higher, we’ve crossed the (blue) short term resistance line convincingly with not enough volume for me to believe there’s conviction here. If I saw a lot of volume, then I’d say look out below. Without that volume, DeMark is likely correct we’ll see some higher closes.
DeMark’s prediction may be right. After a couple of down days, we could see a turnaround and go back up to the 1255 range and have a few higher low closes.
This coincides with Mannwich’s belief that money will be flowing from the Eurozone into the US markets and treasuries (maybe gold too). That money will peter out, and then we go lower. That coincides with DeMark’s stuff, That money may cause a few slightly up days, and when it’s done, we thump back to 1206. Remember the market is like the Queen Elizabeth—it takes some time to reverse course.
These churn markets are really hard to make money. Maybe I should get my day job back. (ha).
The last chart that Thor wants to throw up (*burp*) is the 3LB of the SPXA50 from Stockcharts. This is the chart which shows how many stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. Looks like it’s at the top. Maybe time to start a reversal?
Well, we had a 4 hour warning on the turnaround. See this updated VXX chart:
Thks Rock, as always. Good stuff.
ReplyDeleteGotta dig some info about DeMark's previous records.
I for one see this: 1239 is resistance again, and downside target would be around 1196. Just my uneducated TA guess though.
The EU plan is really hard on the banks. They have to raise tier 1 capital by 9% in the next 2 months.
ReplyDeleteIt's really dire.
Likely that capital can't be raised without China and the US participating. And with Congress grumping about China currency, it may not be a well-coordinated effort.
AMZN's miss on revenues is reported by Bloomberg to be 42%.
ReplyDeleteOperating margin down to 0.7%
They're spending too much. Or we're not buying enough and it's one of those MBA-run companies that when the volume goes down, the margins plummet. I think we talked about that already.
@WolfStreet
ReplyDeleteI too am going to dig into DeMark's recent stuff. When I looked at it 2 years ago, he wasn't great on predictions, but times change. Let's share info, OK?
I was going to do it last night, but I got really tired.
@Rock, your 9:33
ReplyDeleteMake that 8 months.
Banks just say no. Talks are suspended. Watch the market at 9:36.
This is headline churn day for sure.
F getting smacked today after a nice little run into the 12's.
ReplyDeleteHee hee - but now you have a purdy picture! :-)
ReplyDeleteSorry Rock!
Ford what? Do I have a knack for picking losing stock or WHAT?
Iraq War price tag to top WWII's...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2011/1025/Iraq-war-will-cost-more-than-World-War-II
Six Reasons Why U.S. Can't Create Jobs:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0902/Unemployment-Inc.-Six-reasons-why-America-can-t-create-jobs
Mr. Market looking weak now after this little reversal.
ReplyDeleteThe media must love how long the EU has been dragging it's feet on these "fixes". I can't help wonder if what they're really doing is buying time so that they can eject Greece from the Euro. . .
ReplyDeleteHah, or this
ReplyDeleteA new study questions the value of exclusive “funds of hedge funds,” and whether you'd be better off letting a monkey plan your portfolio, writes Brett Arends.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-a-monkey-pick-a-hedge-fund-2011-10-26
Meanwhile - I'm watching CNN before I head to the dentist, they're promoting a new online poll "Would Jesus Occupy Wall Street"?
ReplyDeleteNow I know why I never watch the MSM anymore
It's the Consumer Spending, Stupid:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/its-consumer-spending-stupid.html?ref=opinion
Ditto that, Thor. I NEVER watch anymore. It's such rubbish.
ReplyDeleteThis one's for you, Thor, since you asked about it yesterday.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/is-amazon-the-latest-victim-of-apple/
Thor - I am not sure how familiar you are with the Bible, but Jesus went into The Wall Street of the Jewish Nation (The Temple) and over turned the money carts, he then made a whip and drove out the money handlers and demanded an end to the usury practices.
ReplyDeleteThe people who where in charge of The Temple then made up trumpet up charges, had him arrested, beaten and killed.
Whether this is 100% true or not is any bodies guess, but those are the facts that have been laid out in the Bible.
Jesus was a maverick.
But what does the MSM know, they are only throwing out a stupid poll that is only intended to split peoples opinion over a nothing issue.
Would Buddha occupy Wall Street, Would Mohamed? Would Martin Luther King Jr?
Why did they pick Jesus?
Mangy Mutt
The enigma that was Steve Jobs:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/limits-of-magical-thinking.html?ref=opinion
I think the crux of it was his being adopted, but maybe I'm wrong.
Exactly Mutt. Jesus was extremely dismissive of the "money changers". Of course, many Christians conveniently gloss over that fact in the bible now. In fact, if Christ were around today or down at the OWS protests, they'd probably label him a "hippie" and dismissively tell him to "get a job".
ReplyDeleteThe nasdaq is trailing the spy. this is typically bearish.
ReplyDeleteCould end up in the red today.
I will continue my short tonite. The EU could surprise me, but I'm thinking the EU will have a very very hard time giving their hard-earned money to a bunch of corrupt "entitled" workers where the entitlement is a reward for laziness.
Rock I have been watching the market tape and thinking I have seen roller coasters with less ups and downs.
ReplyDeleteALL of the stocks I have been watching are out of synic and not playing nice with each other, which in the end will be a good thing as it will force me to have to re-evaluate everything.
I didn not know that traditionally that when the nasdaq trails the spy it is bearish, thanks for the 411.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteMy limited understanding is that the IWM, the russell 2000 leads the way. This is the small cap stocks, and often bullish investors will start buying small caps first. Currently, the IWM is ahead of the spy by 1.5% since the 24th.
The Nasdaq is primarily techs, pharmas, and financial services. Riskier. So we would expect the small caps first, then the Nasdaq.
After that, we have the S&P500 which is (arguably) the cream of the crop. For a bullish market, we should see this come along last, being the hardest to move.
That's the theory I understand. I may of course be full of poo.
Today, IWM is up 1.4%, $COMPX (nasdaq index) is up 0.25%, and the S&P is up 0.77%. Even though there is some IWM movement positive, the riskier investments are trailing the cream of the crop. That means (although mixed) a bearish tendency. Risk off.
*However* the IWM has beat out the SPY the last couple of days by 1.6% or so. That may mean it's starting to turn from bearish to bullish. Take a look at the tape, the last couple of days has been bearish, but there seems to be an upswing in process the last 2-3 hours.
Same thing applies on the daily charts. Looking at IWM on the daily, it's outperformed the S&P by 3.5%. However, the Nasdaq has underperformed the S&P by 1.3%.
My interpretation: long term pressure on stocks is upward. I keep that in mind when I either short (keeping stops quite close) but I give the long investment more room to run, setting stops further apart, allowing for additional market volatility.
I saw a clip of the 787's maiden flight on Bloomie. At Narita (an older airport) they were wheeling a staircase cart out to the 787 to take the people off.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if airports are set up to handle the 787's exit door configuration......
(I have taken many a flight on a 747 to Narita where I had to climb down the staircase to a waiting bus that bused us to the terminal, a real P I T A).
This Taibbi article on Rick Perry is just brilliant. Don't mess with Texas!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/rick-perry-the-best-little-whore-in-texas-20111026?print=true
First casualty of OWS? This video is horrifying. I guess we living in a police state now. @Rock: What was that you said about the police following the laws?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/this-veteran-could-be-the-first-person-to-die-at-a-wall-street-protest-2011-10
Oooooh, this is not going to end well. . . .
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ktvu.com/news/29596005/detail.html
Iraq War veteran critically injured during protests
Thor - The longer this Occupy stuff goes on the worse things will get.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the protesters are not causing violence, theft or damaing other peoplse property they have the God Given Constitutional right to be and do what they are doing.
And I would have to say (At least here in Portland area) they have been handling themselves with a lot of reserve and should be allowed to assemble and protest.
I would also have to say here in the Portland area the city leaders have been handling this with a lot of reserve.
But the longer this goes on the more it will disrupt cities all over our country and things just may not end all too well.
And here is another MSM poll "Only 39 percent of people support Occupy Movement"
But my question is does Jesus support it?
How about the Flying Spagetti Monster - Does he support it?
Mangy Mutt
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteYour 6:00
I'm glad I'm old.
Manny - oooooh reading
ReplyDelete@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteYour 7:00
I didn't see any law the police violated in the video. Nor was there any reference to any specific law being broken by police in the text.
The police are out there to protect me. And you. The protesters are violating the law, and are preventing me (should I have wanted) from freely accessing that public place. They are violating my rights.
The police are doing crowd control procedures which are in policy and are legal. The person who was inured put himself in harm's way by participating in an illegal activity (like shooting a bank robber's partner). That person had no business being there, unless he wished to put himself in harms way.
And FYI, those were not flash-bangs. You can trust me on that one.
The other thing is that if you've ever fired a rubber bullet, it's kind of like participating in a snowball fight. (I think you're a Minnesotaean so you should understand this analogy). You have to lob it in the general direction of the person you wish to hit, unless he's 10' across the room from you. The 10' distance is what it's designed for. And when you lob it over 30', like a snowball, you're lucky to get close.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeletefrom the article:
Jason Matherne, an activist and friend of Olsen's, called for protesters to remain non-violent in the face of the escalating protests in Oakland.
"If you agree with Scott about ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and support him, do it peacefully and with civil disobedience," Matherne said.
From the video, it looks to me like there was violence. How it escalated to be violent is immaterial, the people participating in violence take the risk of injury. And they know it.
I was at Kent State that weekend. Not for the protests, but for um...other reasons. (I did not inhale). But I'll tell you the skinny on the street was to see how much trouble we could cause. There were guys that were unbelievable trouble makers. Turned out later that these guys had been trained by underground leaders on how to create situations.
I'm not saying this happened in Oakland, but man, it is possible. And based on my personal experience, is likely.
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteRead Mutt's comment. IMHO, we must not become a country of anarchy, but must continue under the rule of law.
@Rock, a post about DeMark's great call, and then wrong prediction:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/demark-says-s-p-500-rally-tomorrow-may-precede-sharp-decline-.html
GREAT
"DeMark, the founder of Market Studies LLC, said on Sept. 22 that the S&P 500 might fall as low as 1,076 before investor panic abated and stocks advanced. The benchmark index for American equities fell yesterday to 1,074.77 and has gained 6.4 percent since."
WRONG
"Typically when markets have three up closes and do move that quickly, that is a sign of the termination of a short-term move,” Demark said. “Instead of looking forward and expecting the market to move higher, it could have a very sharp decline.”
@WolfStreet:
ReplyDeleteWe need a new search engine. When I searched "Market Studies LLC" in Google, the first 4 pages did not give me a hit on their home page.
After my overnight long, I immediately sold and went short again, (buy VXX) and am doing quite well.
I wonder if this proves to be a Braxton Hick, or the start of the mother of all short-covering rallys. Bloomberg reported that from the pits, people who were short haven't capitulated yet. Also they were saying this might extend our trading range which would be good for me, I'd like to see some more "trending time".
Morning all - RALLLY HOOOOOOOOOOO!
ReplyDeleteBoy, did you all see those MASSIVE GDP numbers and that fix for the EU problems that's totally going to work this time (really, we mean it, this time it'll work!) :-/
I can't keep track of whether we're headed back below 10K or above 12K anymore!
Thanks for the laugh this morning.
ReplyDeleteThis is beyond silly.
One of the ETF's I have been watching is DRV (Realestate Bear)
Headlines read "New Home Sales Slump"
So you would think the ETF would be UP....If that is what you thought, you thought wrong, it is down.
But at this point it is not surprising.
Mangy Mutt
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYep. It became obvious to me after I read your comment.
So bond holders never take a haircut, right? Well, they just got a 50%er from the EU.
Now, if you were a bondholder, what would you do? Maybe get out of Dodge? Where would you head? Maybe equities?
Hmmmmmm I wonder why the market's up only a little. This may be the start of one mother rally. Get ready!
WoW! Look at UUP!
ReplyDeleteDive! Dive! AAAHHHOOOOOGAH AAAHHHOOOOOGAH
Rally on, Garth! Schizo market. All is well, all is well. All is well!!!
ReplyDeleteI say rally through year-end and then some potential reality slap come early '12.
See:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=25504&title=Pakistan-allows-attacks-on-US-troops
I guess they're pissed off about losing all the bribery money from Bin Laden?
That's been my premise. Money flowing out of the EU and into U.S. equities. Will likely happen for a bit, causing T's to pull back, and then it will be into T's when it becomes obvious (MORE obvious) that we're in deep shit too.
ReplyDelete@Rock: On another note, that cop tossing whatever he tossed into the crowd who was helping the injured soldier seemed a bit unnecessary to me. What were those people doing to "break the law" there? Sorry, but I just don't see it.
We are a police state now. Get used to it.
ReplyDeleteSo much for the 1260 line. Well done bulls..
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteI just got a Jury Duty summons. Once they find out what I do (yeah, they still won't let me out) that'll be the shortest jury duty on record.
Hee hee hee
Ooh, gotta love that GLD I bought on the 4th!
ReplyDeleteManny - I'm thinking this latest nonsense from the EU will buy them 6-9 months. . .
ReplyDeleteRock - are you feeling all those earthquakes up there? All my friends are freaking out, when's the last time you guys had swarms like that? Not since the 80's at least I think, and all near Berkeley, that can't be good on the Hayward Fault!
Thor - I do not get too excited about news like this as there has always seemed to be 1000x more hype then reality, but since you brought up the earthquakes.
ReplyDeleteI just heard last week that there has been a major sismic activity increase around Mt. Rainer (Up here in WA)
Depending on were you are in this area you can see both Mt. Rainer and Mt. St Helens at the same time.
I honestly do not read too much into it though.
Mangy Mutt
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteIsn't there a movie about this?
Actually, no I don't feel a thing here. I'm situated on my daddy Rock, at the top of a mountain (well, hill, anyway) around 1040' or so says my GPS.
Typically they feel the quakes more in the valley where the earth liquifies and gives waves that reflect off our hills. Some earthquakes I've felt a "thump" but could easily be missed if I were walking.
The telltale sign for me is when the chandelier starts a pendulum action.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteBloomberg analyists are saying 3 years, and Italy and Spain are covered with 300B left over. I'm not sure if that includes leveraging the fund or not.
But if we can't think of ways to get the long-term unemployed back in the workforce again, we may need longer than 3 years.
Too bad, Rock. I did my duty back in '02 in Brooklyn Federal Court. Sent some poor drug mule from Italy to the slammer for trying to smuggle ecstacy pills to the U.S. in the lining of his suitcase. Felt bad for the guy but seemed pretty open and shut to me. I knew I'd get picked for the jury, by the way.
ReplyDeleteSo do we get profit taking? I'm back in VXX again. Overnight I intend to be 1 position long, but I'll wait in VXX till the end of trading or I see a turnaround.
ReplyDeleteRock - wow, three years! That's a long longer than I thought . . what's your take on that though? I'm assuming Italy's debt is nowhere near as advertised. . . .
ReplyDeleteRock, know what you mean about liquefaction, I was working in Foster City during the 89 quake, not so fun!
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI think government "austerity" will disappoint and ultimately anger a lot of people. But its those same people who don't want to pay tax to support the excesses.
I think the visibility has been raised so most people understand it. Now let's see if governments and elected officials can implement it.
They will likely lose their jobs at re-election time. That's a good thing. The new people won't be blamed for the current condition (envelope #1). So the new people will have a chance.
I think 2-3 years is the kind of timeframe necessary to implement the changes necessary. It most certainly isn't like a lightswitch. And the experts are saying at projected run rates, the packages will cover that timeframe.
As D'astro would say, "will see".
I thought this was very good. Touches on what we here have known for a while - while many goods and services are really cheap now, the basic necessities are getting more and more expensive.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/squeezed-dry-why-americans-work-so-hard-but-feel-so-poor/241252/
Debunking the whole "Paid back the TARP" myth.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/10/debunking-the-paid-back-the-tarp-myth-banks-should-be-paying-over-300-billion-a-year-in-systemic-risk-insurance.html
I'm looking for a sell-off again today towards the end of the day. I'm thinking to keep 1/4 short position over the weekend. The up pressure is beginning to be replaced with down pressure now that we've gotten over the "trade by headlines".
ReplyDeleteEarnings reports are still beating expected, but I looked at a couple of stocks and their revenues are down YoY and down from last quarter. I'll look at some more over the weekend. You'd think the mainstream media would want to do this research. But I haven't herard much of anything.
Rock, i agree 100% i was also thinking a 2-3 years timeframe. I'm encouraged, whether the OWS movement will have staying power, that it has totally wrenched the focus away from those bat shit crazy team baggers. plus people like Cain, Perry, and Bachman are going down in flames. Hopefully we can keep the dialogue from veering any farther to the right.
ReplyDeleteManny, do you think Bachmann will be re-elected next term?
Hello Thor-- Yes-- AeroVironment makes a drone that replicates a hummingbird. I am unsure if commercially available yet but probably in advanced prototype. Your photo of the island. . . it resembles very much what is on Lake Manitou, Manitoulin Island, Ontario. I last saw it in 1967 and no doubt has changed since. Could you tell me where the photo was taken? Thanks
ReplyDeletetangocat@iglou.com
Well, I didn't get the sell-off I was expecting, but saw strength instead. Some buyers here. The last 3 hours, see the SPY chart hourly, and you'll see (small) increasing volume.
ReplyDeleteI don't see volume commitment. I'd feel a lot better if I saw more buyers, even with the same price action.
So instead of going short over the weekend, I went long during the strength, cut my long exposure back to 1/4 position and "will see" in the morning.
@Anonymous: It's kind of dangerous to post your email to a blog like this. Spammers pick it up and use it. There are other ways to make contact. If you want me to, I would be glad to remove your comment and you could retype it. Or not. It's up to you.
@Thor: Yes, I'm quite sure she'll be re-elected, as she represents a district that leans pretty conservative, for the most part. She won't win by a ton but will likely win again.
ReplyDeleteMy 2 cents: 1260 should provide support here.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the confidence fairy lives!
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/she-lives/
@WolfStreet
ReplyDeleteI think you're right for today. But even though the pressure looks like up to me, I'm seeing some signs I don't like. Being long (only a little) over the weekend, 'm down a little today. That's one sign I definitely don't like.
I'll finish my work and comment more later.
This being the End of Month, we could see some wild volatility during the last hour.
NBA
ReplyDeleteNothing But Attorneys
No Basketball Anymore
Not Being Accommodating
I heard a few more but I forget...
Rock - I am not an NBA fan, but I have only been to a couple MLB and NFL games because it has gotten too expensive for the average Joe to go.
ReplyDeleteThe last time I went to a Seahawk game I spent over $300 and we did not even spend the night.
But if they close the entire NBA down it would be a small loss.
Mangy Mutt
Whoa,FUGLY close today. Yikes. What next?
ReplyDeleteThis is literally shades of '08 all over again. Lurching from one real crisis (and fake fix) to the next. When/How will it end?
ReplyDeleteThis is, I think, worth repeating.
ReplyDeleteJesus - people really are this stupid aren't they? To ignore this blatant hypocrisy is about. Our leaders really are this corrupt, and it just pissed me off. . .
As the government showdown over debt continues—the so-called congressional supercommittee negotiating cuts has been floundering for weeks—Newsweek found about five dozen of the most fiscally conservative Republicans, from Tea Party freshmen like Allen West to anti-spending presidential candidates like Rick Perry and Ron Paul, trying to gobble up the very largesse they publicly disown, in the time-honored, budget-busting tradition of bringing home the bacon for local constituents.
@Mutt: The last NBA game I went to was in San Antonio. I was sitting so far up and away from the court, I couldn't tell if any given player were black or white, without looking at the scoreboard TV.
ReplyDeleteI guess that's true integration.
As you may know, many people my age ponder what's to come, and when a friend pointed me to a website that said Steve Jobs' last words were "Oh Wow! Oh Wow! Oh Wow!", and we were wondering if he had seen iGod.
ReplyDeleteSo, not to be sacrilegious, because after where I've been and what I've done, I'm pretty sure I know what's in store, I was just thinking, if Steve had been resuscitated at that moment, what an amazing product launch we'd see.
Rock - hah. I read about that. That's pretty neat. Who knows what he saw, I've read that it's the brain trying to make sense out of losing oxygen because of death. Or it could be something else. It's comforting to me a bit, because it seems that for many, at the very end of their lives, those last few seconds, they are not afraid, but are often wondrous. . . .
ReplyDeleteWell, I didn't comment on my findings, but they don't matter. The Braxton Hick is upon us.
ReplyDeleteNow let's see if the market recovers. The feeling on Bloomberg is that the president of Greece wants to default and restructure their debt, and wants to let the people take the responsibility of that decision.
Based on my limited understanding, the bonds should take a big hit as people move out of them into corporate stocks that look like the earnings are OK to good.
The Dollar will grow in strength which will push the market down, but I'm thinking the sovereign debt default will push the market up.
"Will see"
Wow, the trin is at 6.5 or so. I've never seen it so high.
ReplyDeletePeople are dumping like crazy!
VXX is at 46.6, up 15%.
Good thing I was short overnight. I woulda been hurt this morning for sure.
'11 rhymes with '08. 'Nuff said. Will early '12 rhyme with early '09 and beyond?
ReplyDeleteAnd on and on it goes. Where/When/How it stops, nobody knows.
ReplyDelete@Rock:congratz on the overnight short! Didn't see that one coming. This is one crazy market to chart.
ReplyDeleteThrow dem charts out, Wolfie. Or least minimize them. Un-"charted" waters now.
ReplyDeleteAll about TPTB. Pull up a chair, grab drink and some popcorn.
@Rock(12:48)
ReplyDeleteGoogle Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross.
Your(9:29,
Interesting.
Not trading until a clear trend is established. Long NLY and TRP.to
ICan
So much for the EUR bailout solution. What did that last, a mere few days? What a farce. The elites literally have no clue what to do. The break up of th Euro (and maybe something much worse) is inevitable.
ReplyDeleteGoodness, what the hell is going on this morning? Greece again? Can't we at least change the flavor for a bit? Like Italian? Or French maybe? ;-)
ReplyDeleteThat's next, Thor. Be patient. ;-)
ReplyDeleteHow long has Greece been in the news? Literally seems like two years straight now, off and on.
These "markets" are so manipulated now by world leaders that the idea of true actual price discovery or known real values is absurd. It's a joke at this point. By the time they're done, the only people left in them will be the big players trading back and forth betweeen themselves.
ReplyDeleteThe plot thickens on the MF Global situation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/10/were-customer-accounts-pilfered-at-jon-corzines-mf-global.html
Do we need any further evidence that the current financial system as we know it is irredeemable and not worth "saving"?
What I can't figure is why gold's down. But looking at the chart (and yes, Mannwich, the charts do still work: I was seeing weakness yesterday that I didn't like, which is why I went short overnight(educated gambling, I know)) GLD may be forming the next W with the right side higher. Bullish formation.
ReplyDelete@AAPL: Bloomberg reports that HTC has overtaken AAPL as the biggest smartphone manufacturer in the US.
ReplyDeleteFunny, I thought HTC was Taiwanese
http://www.bgr.com/2011/10/31/htc-reports-record-q3-smartphone-shipments-up-93/
@Rock: I was being partially facetious. They probably "work" better than anything else, but are not perfect. Nothing is.....
ReplyDeleteI do think this environment makes even charting less perfect, if you know what I mean.
What will the FED do?
ReplyDeleteMaybe Gold is looking for QE3?
ICan
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteThanks, man. The more I read, the more I realize how little I know.
Rock - I thought HTC had passed Apple long ago, there are a lot more droids than iPhones out there aren't there?
ReplyDeleteImportant question though, is where the profits on those phones are ;-)
Hah - this won't end well
ReplyDeletehttp://www.latimes.com/business/buy-here-pay-here/la-fi-buyhere-payhere-day-two-20111101,0,3779131.story
Private equity firms are investing in chains of used-car lots, and auto loans are being packaged into securities much like subprime mortgages. They're attracted by the industry's average profit of 38% for each car sold
"6 things no one will tell you about IMF Global"-marketwatch.com
ReplyDeleteJust like TBTF banks in 2008.
"Heads they win, tails they flip again".
"They created nothing and added nothing. 3000 employees drew a very handsome salary until today".
ICan
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteI understand. There was a guy on Bloomberg from the trading floor that was doing an interview, and he said "how can you trade this market? Fundamentals don't make any sense, Charts aren't any good and the headlines are so random". I guess he lost a lotta money last night.
Rock - I've always thought that many charts were going to have to be rewritten for these times. So many new variables.
ReplyDeleteSCMP: Super-rich want to leave the mainland
ReplyDeleteEmmie - hrmmmm, what is it that these people know about what's really going on in China?
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI don't use a very smartphone, and I'm not plugged into that market. It was a surprise to me that HTC wasn't the leader, because I remember seeing pie charts where I thought Android was the big market share winner. But Samsung and others make Androids, so I don't know who's biggest.
@emmy: Is there an island where we can send all of the super rich, kind of a new age leper colony of sorts? ;-)
ReplyDeleteMaybe that's the solution to the world's problems?
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteWhen I started trading, I looked into the math of several oscillators which TDAmeritrade supported with their trading product. They seemed to be focused on one thing, like price or volume. I didn't find one which combined multiple factors especially any fundamental factors, like P/E, free cash flow, etc. There have been some new tools, but they aren't divulging the math for these, so I can't really understand them well.
They don't provide one that reads the news feed (although they do give me a window which displays the headlines and is clickable so I can read the story) like the big boys have.
I would like to develop a tool which combines relative strength with volume. Relative strength is kind of like comparing one stock (or etf) with the TRIN and market price action. I feel that coupling that action with value (the price * volume) would have merit. But I think I have to write these tools myself.
Rock - you are a braver man than I :-) I'm almost entirely in cash right now, with some gold and that tiny little bit of F and GM.
ReplyDeleteI am one who believes that there is not just one resource that can make the difference between a good trader and a not so good trader.
ReplyDeleteIMHO there are too many moving parts to the market to say this or that works, well this or that may work for a particular trader’s style, but not as a general rule for everyone.
When I first started trading, I traded the headlines and what I thought they should mean and I literally got my butt handed to me on a paper plate, cuz if it would have been handed to me on a silver platter, that would have implied value.
But as I developed, I noticed actual patterns within the charts and have actually made money and built up my confidence, but like ICan, all my charts have broken down and I believe now is the time to sit out and wait for “A Pattern That You Can Believe In”
Just so I can stay warm, I still have a couple irons in the fire, but for the most part I am pulling a Thor and waiting on the sidelines.
Mangy Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYou're trading smart. I'm just gambling (but with only my trading account. My other accounts were stopped out and have been sitting in cash until I get a Pattern that You (or I) can believe in".
I got lucky last night. I had no way of knowing hot steaming Grease would fall in my lap, I just went long VXX with 2 positions, expecting a small move to the weaker side. Although a small move against me was likely, a large move against me was unlikely. I mean, the global financial woes wouldn't be fixed overnight. But they could get worse. I had no idea Europe's bailout would unravel.
With a huge move like we just saw, it's difficult (for me) to read the chart. I saw weakness in the 60 minute chart, and I saw that weakness hold at around 1233. So when I got the turnaround at 1233 a few minutes ago, I went long the VXX again (44.77). I'll post tonight the charts I was using.
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteLot of rich Chinese and Indians are in Canada - Vancouver's r/e defies all odds!
I personally know a lot of well-off Indians who have bought r/e in Canada for safehaven purposes.
ICan
"Global economy could face 'mother of all financial crises' if referendum causes troubled nation to turn its back on bailout' -according to the Globe and Mail. Yes - the banks have to be protected at all costs.
ReplyDelete"Greek Prime Minister Papandreou takes a high-stakes gamble". www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business
ICan
"UN panel sees 'alarming resergence of mercernaries" - reuters/africa news
ReplyDelete"The Ontario man who helped Muammar Gaddafi's son flee Libya" news.nationalpost.com/tag/muammar-gaddafi.
Resurgence of private military and security companies.
Ft.com with all it's EU rumors.
ReplyDelete"Rout eases as Greek referendum in doubt".
'Planned Greek referendum on the terms of its bailout may be not be held afterall".
ICan
Greece's cabinet has given unanimous backing to a controversial plan by PM George Papandreou to hold a referendum on a EU debt rescue package.
ReplyDeleteEveryone have their popcorn ?
@Thor
ReplyDelete"Emmie - hrmmmm, what is it that these people know about what's really going on in China?"
I ask this question to myself when I look at the Shanghai price chart for the past three (soon to be four) years.
Paris stock exchange going red after a strong opening (gained as much as 2%). Smells like simple "short squeezing".
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