We’re on track. Extend the green line to where the black line meets the red line. Poof. 2000 points. (Chart courtesy of TDAmeritrade's StrategyDesk)
So where from there? Everyone will be looking for a pullback, so I suspect we will get one going into the election. Who knows what the reasoning will be. It may be unsuspected, like China (remember they just increased liquidity a lot there, could be a sign of the times, and their GDP growth is slowing. Maybe it would slow a lot without that liquidity. Or maybe it’s a war with Syria. We often (without QE(n)) have pullbacks in the slow summer season, so maybe it’s that.
If this is the case, Mr. Obama will lose. The next relatively equidistant timing cycle will extend into the first of next year.
What do I like during the next few months? The herds report tells me to get out of precious metals, but into the metals and mining stocks like CENX X (yes, that will beta along, I guess) and the KOLs. I like many of the retailers like TIF that had a big pullback, and COH that didn’t . Maybe ANF.
I think the future revenue guidences are important in choosing. So I’m looking for white-collar retail stocks (TIF, COH, ANF etc), and B2B corporations like Oracle, IBM, Cisco etc to do well.
Notice the pink vertical line on the DIA chart. It appears as though there was a pullback cycle starting that if allowed to complete, would mean the DOW would fall below the 10000 point. Unthinkable! You remember what happened to turn that around? All the central banks got together and promised TBP (no, this time it means The Big Put), that is, liquidity forever. So with 0% interest rates promised forever, of course, everybody bought, and will continue to buy. Soon you’ll see the funds start getting in big time, then it’s time to ride, boys. Or as Mannwich likes to say, “Rally on, Wayne!”.
At the time of the pink line, I think the boys at the Fed saw the downturn (resulting from sentiment about Eurozone finances and sovereign debt repayment) and didn't want the Ubers value to drop, so the simultaneous announcement was created. I mean what other reason could there be to orchistrate a simultaneous announcement? So the cycle price direction was interrupted.
Could happen again in June/July timeframe. Maybe the US and China will have a simultaneous announcement of plans to save the Eurozone.
Who knows what the reasoning will be
ReplyDeleteMaybe Iran . . .
Oh come on guys lets be a little less synical.
ReplyDeleteThe anoucment was both organic and spontanous, it is not the banks fault they all thought of it at the same time.
Rock - If we were in a natural cycle to have a pull back, but that cycle was prevented from taking place because of mans interference; wouldn't that make the correction that eventually should/needs to take place worse?
Mangy Mutt
My indicators have started to show UUP may be headed back up. I can't access the DXY with my tools so I have to use UUP as my proxy. I know it's not the same.
ReplyDeleteThe concern is definitely the eurozone. With the greek agreement on austerity with the political parties, I expect UUP to continue relatively flat, and take a look at the UUP averages for the last 6 days, and you'll see a flattening trend.
If this trend turns up, it's time to temporarily exit my long positions, and start day-trading again.
As you can see from the post, and from this comment, I believe the market mover to be the structurals, not fundies, techs or psychologicals. "Will see" what the governments of Eurozone will cook up. I'm thinking it will benefit the Ubers. So in my little way, I will try to stay long.
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteA natural correction would probably be worse. However, a major correction like we saw after Bear will not be permitted by the Structurals. Remember they immediately stepped in to correct the market at that time.
Remember the banks are extremely fragile (others think this as well looking at the major depressed market cap of BAC, C, MS etc). A major dip in the markets would likely initiate bank runs, which they can't stand with all the toxic assets.
That's why we need policies that address toxic assets. I've heard several I like: offer low interest rates for investors; Offer green cards for foreign investors. We can't go back to giving anyone who breathes a mortgage. Been there, done that.
We've got some good pullbacks this AM. Have a look at SINA FMCN, AMLN, MGM, REGN TNA ACI
ReplyDeleteAll good relative strength over the last 5 days, with a minimum of 1.5% pullback today at open.
I bought heavy into the pullback this AM.
ReplyDelete"Will see".
I love these fake moves, it's such a great opportunity to make money.
I sold my CSTR at the open, for a tidy profit. I won't re-enter until I see the charts settle out.
Rock - I got my Real-Estate license in 1999 and got to see the market shoot up in the mid 2000's we worked hard to get people into homes they could make the payments on, but as time went on it got exceedingly difficult to make that happen.
ReplyDeleteThe banks were offering farm labors loans to buy $150,000 houses then they would offer lines of credit on top of that.
I agree with you giving everybody who breaths a loan to buy a house wasn't a good idea then and it sure ain't now
Mangy Mutt
Morning folks! Mutt! Getting my RE license is on my list of to-do's for the next few months! Was that very hard to study for? :-)
ReplyDeleteIs anyone else seeing that the time changed to PST time? We're three hours behind what we should be correct? Just wanted to make sure, I didn't change it . . .
ReplyDeleteStrange, the blog is still set to Eastern Time. . . another blogger bug?
ReplyDelete@Thor:
ReplyDeleteHere in CA, it is my understanding that after passing the exam, you have to be employed with a RE firm for a period of time, kind of like an internship.
Here, a friend of mine is a broker with Alain Pinel in Palo Alto. He said that he makes more money for less time working the high end.
He also said that Century 21 will hire anyone. That was after seeing the Super Bowl commercial.
:-)>
@Thor: your 7:52
ReplyDeleteAt least they got rid of the header misspelling....fixed it by eliminating the entire message.....
Yep, seeing PDT.
ReplyDeleteRock - K, I'll keep looking to see what happened. Is anyone on the east coast or the midwest seeing Pacific Time or do you see your own time zones?
ReplyDeleteOK, here comes your herds report:
ReplyDeleteBest:
CUZ 5%
XHB $DJTFVS TAN 4%
KOL ITB $BKX $DJTCNS BBH KCE IBB XES KRE 3%
Worst:
SKF -11%
SMN -7&
USO -4%
IAU GLD -3%
GDX $DJT $DRG.X XLU SLV -2%
These are the short-term 5-day relative performance of the sector ETFs to the S%P.
For potential long-term investment (6 months or so) I did a room-to-run analysis, and assumed that the sectors could get back to their last May highs. Here's the room to run:
TAN 300%
SLV IRET 45%
GEX KOL DIG XME 40%
SLX 35%
OIH KCE KBE TIF 30%
CUZ USO XES XLF DBA GDX IYZ 20%
The ones that are at or higher than their last May's level:
UTH IDU XLV RTH IYH XLP VHT IHE XRT XLK ICF ITA UCC KRE IBB BBH ITB XHB XBI
So, here's the conclusion I reach:\
A. The ones that are at or higher are the strongest, and will likely pull back the least should we face a market pullback.
B: The ones that have room to run will attract the riskiest investors, be the most volatile, and are likely to have the most upside potential.
For me, it's Risk On, Baby!. Doing a sort, looks like the best opportunities are in TAN, KOL, XES KCE.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteBloomie just had a segment on talking about network security of medical devices.
They demo'ed a hack into a pacemaker which gives the patient a shock. Could be a real shock, I guess.
Another demo they showed was where a hack into an insulin pump could cause overpumping (or underpumping).
Sounds like an IT opportunity to me!
Rock - Gawd, can you imagine a country doing that in a war? I guess it wouldn't really do a country all that much damage to suddenly kill off a bunch of older, unhealthy people. Carousel anyone?
ReplyDeleteDon't think I'll be actually going into RE to look for work, I think our housing market is not much better than Florida or Vegas. I'm contemplating buying some investment property here or in Vegas where the in-laws are so I thought it might be a good idea to have a license.
That's how my grandmother got into the field and thrived, she got a license to buy investment property during the 50's when my grandfather was out of town (pilot). She had a knack for it though and ended up doing very well.
from:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06/most-takeovers-since-2007-seen-spurred-by-data-torrent-tech.html
"Cisco Systems Inc., (CSCO) the world’s largest maker of networking equipment, estimates that by 2015 the data equivalent of all movies ever made will cross Internet networks every five minutes."
We are approaching the physics limitation on data transmission speeds over known media (copper, fiber). So parallelism is the cost-effective answer. HP invented the light (color) multiplexing over a single fiber, and we all know about the frequency and time division multiplexing over the air.
B2B will be important as this evolution happens. No matter what your kids think, B2B transmission is far more critical than downloading those netflix flicks. Look for companies that support and handle efficient tunnels, local replication, etc.
I think I mentioned RAX as a supplier of farms, and we're looking at WD and Seagate, although checking with some local silicon valley heads, seagate's quality control and early product release is taking a toll on their penetration.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteA lot of generals and admirals are also old farts, and will have networked devices implanted.
Rock - Oooh, didn't think of that! Then yes, that would be very bad for us :-)
ReplyDeleteRock - re your 9:53, Everything's going into The Cloud. When I was working for my last company up there in SF, it was before data centers had really taken off.
ReplyDeleteOMG - trying to find a doctor here is impossible, so many of them have gone to concierge service only.I'd never heard of such a thing before. This kinda shit makes our overall medical care better how? I asked my other half what was going on, and he said that the good doctors no longer want to deal with insurance companies...
ReplyDeleteBloomie had a McClellan interview on. He believes we are at a top, for awhile (until June/July). Here's a summary why:
ReplyDelete1) Euro-dollar futures (interest rate product) shows what will happen to the market 1 year in advance. It peaked 1 year ago. In other words, big money traders know 1 year in advance what's coming, So the market's tired now. Something to do with bank flows, correlation is good since 1997. Banks use Euro-Dollar more now than they used to, hence a better accuracy on this indicator lately.
2) The top is confirmed by having investors show excitment now, a sign of the top.
3) Money Market money flow shows money is flowing into stock indices and equity futures. Asset levels of MM funds, reported daily. shows cash is pulling out of the MMs and into the equities. A sentiment indicator which shows we are at a top.
4) QQQ has to create more shares when people want to buy. So an uptrend causes more shares to be generated. Right now, the number of shares is far beyond the number from last summer's highs, much more than normal, is a sign people are in too much.
He predicts we will go Violently sideways until June. He's looking for an upside after June.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI think I commented quite some time ago that my brother and daughter (doctors) are having trouble getting paid by insurance companies. My brother's firm took an insurance company to court for non-payment, and received a judgement against the insurance company. The insurance company refused to pay, so my brother's firm is suing in civil court for damages and to take assets from the company as payment.
Maybe the insurance company bought some MBS's and my brother's firm will end up with some distressed properties as payment.......
going up into the close. Turn-around Tuesday, anyone?
ReplyDeleteRock, depends on Greece I bet, that's going to hit tonight or tomorrow me thinks.
ReplyDeleteSo I ran some screens for my selected conclusion sectors above. Here is my watchlist:
ReplyDeleteMetals and Mining
X VALE TX STP SLX SCHN POT MTL MT FSLR CMP CENX CCJ ATI AA
COALS
ACI ANR BTU JRCC MEE PCX WLT
SOLARS
JASO LDK TAN YGE WFR TSL PBD GEX FAN
FINANCIALS
JNS JEF LAZ GHL AMP MS GS
I have yet to do the balance sheet analysis on these yet, so Mutt, if you're thinking about possibly following any of these for risk-on, I'll have that analysis done by around 11:00 PDT.
TAN is cheap, and looks like a good growth possibility. Also I'm familiar with JRCC,and I like that firm.
And, if there's a dip due to the grease thing, I am going so full in with every dollar long I can muster, the instant the Trin turns negative, or if the Tick is close to 9 and turns positive.
ReplyDeleteI so am.
^tick is close to 0
ReplyDeleteI actually worked for SCM and developed a typewriter, so many many years ago. You'd think I could type now.
I still can't get MAnnwich right.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThor - Sorry for taking so long to reply,
ReplyDeleteYou are a smart and capable guy and I have seen my fair share of idiot Real-Estate people, so you compared to them, I do not think you will have a problem with getting your license.
I know that they have been and are continuing to change the laws here in Wa St so I am sure Ca is also changing too.
Mutt
Sorry I didn't get to the balance sheet analysis; a friend came over last night and we had a few Glenfiddich's too many.
ReplyDeleteI popped out of FSLR and CSTR at the open, and bought back into it, and BTU, and X on the dip. Now I'll go do the analysis and see how much I hurt myself.
Rock - I just discovered your Sunday post, read it and was in the process of writing you a reply, then blogger got hungry and ate it..............STUPID BLOGGER.
ReplyDeleteI have a lot to say on that and having grown up were I did have a lot to say about what a ghetto is and how people who live there get ghettoitis - It is a very unique mind set that is extremely difficult to over come.
Anyway I hope I will get a chance to post more on that later as I am off to work.
Oh did I mention Stupid Blogger
Mangy Mutt
Rock - is it REALLY possible to have too many adult beverages?
ReplyDeleteOh wait a minute I remember Thor telling us about after his born day and yes it actually is possible
Mutt
I think not, for me, anymore. Maybe for Thor.
DeleteYou heard about Descartes, went to an expensive restaurant, ordered everything on the menu, and when the waiter brought the bill and said "Time to pay the bill, sir,"
Descartes replied "I think not." And *poof* disappeared.
Just like our comments.
Benspeak!
ReplyDeleteThe bugs want to see BB speak everyday. It's still winter out there!. So the heat will be kept high on the U$D.
ReplyDeleteICan
Ben did say that the unemployment rate of 8.3% does not accurately reflect the strains in the labor market.
ReplyDeleteThose words are ambiguous. I suppose he does this to confound the newsreaders, because if he said the unemployment rate numbers should be 15%, the market would fall like a flying monkey.
Which kind of relates to Sunday's post and comments. Not including Mutt's, of course.
Dollar's weaker, market's up. All is good with the world.
ReplyDeleteI'm stopped out now, but I never went this long on my trading account.
ReplyDeleteFelt good. I never used margin before, but it was painless, and did net me extra. Actually, I went out of control buying, and overbought. I guess now I know how it feels to be female at TIF or COH.
Blogger did eat my earlier comment. I finished, hit "Publish" button, got a wierd popup window, and *poof* it was gone.
Since I always compose in notepad, it wasn't an issue.
Ben said the current debt to GDP ratio is 70%, add in state and local debt, it's 90%, add in social security and medicaid it/s >100% and one senator said no, it's 120%.
ReplyDeleteWe're so toast.
Morning all! BR getting hammered regarding this post. Sort of like the "old days" over there. Pretty courageous post by him though even if one might not agree.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/my-newfound-respect-for-hank-paulson/
Manny - Oooh. Sheesh, I oversleep one morning and I miss both the Komen resignation AND Prop 8 being ruled unconstitutional!
ReplyDeleteMutt - I'll check to see if your comment is in SPAM!
ReplyDeleteManny - caught up. Hah, that's just him putting two of his own worst traits on display: name dropping, and pimping for comments. I hadn't spent too much time over there over the last year, I have a lot of respect for BR professionally, but as a person, I find him lacking.
ReplyDeleteMutt - I couldn't find that comment, sorry. :-(
ReplyDeleteYou heard there's a proposed settlement agreement which gives underwater homeowners 35K to sell their home (short sale) to the bank, and gives immunity for all future litigations against the bank?
ReplyDeleteWow! what a win-win-win for the banks!!!!
Gives them immunity for all their evil deeds!!
NY ain't signing. good for them.
Rock - neither is CA apparently.
ReplyDeleteJust checked our traffic stats for the first time in about six months - they're a lot higher than I thought they were!
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/business/global/as-growth-slows-india-awakens-to-need-for-foreign-investment.html
NEW DELHI — When India’s finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, flew to Chicago recently to address a group of American executives, it was to deliver an urgent message: India is still open for business.
Usually a cautious speaker who offers only vague promises, Mr. Mukherjee eagerly promoted specific new deals from New Delhi, where the national government has become alarmed by the sudden slowdown of India’s economy.
Recent job numbers aside, I still don't see how we're going to escape 2012 without any of this affecting us.
@ICan
ReplyDeleteSo, to thank you for all your contributions, and for my fattened wallet from MCD, I made an icon for you.
Also, it's to dress us up a bit, since Thor says our traffic is high.
You'll find it at www.photobucket.com
I'm not exactly sure how to run photobucket, but if you search "rockspix", you won't find it, but the search engine asks if you want to view rockspix 's profile. Click that, and the picture appears.
I know, it's a terrible picture. Won't hurt my feelings a bit if you don't use it.
No, that's a lie.
It will. Yes, it will.
Rock, is this it? hah, that's cute!
ReplyDeletehttp://s1068.photobucket.com/albums/u449/RocksPix/?action=view¤t=eye-can.gif
That's it, Thor! Thanks!
ReplyDeleteHas Facebook "jumped the shark"? I think it has, quite a bit ago, actually.
ReplyDeletehttp://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp
Manny - no, I don't think so at all. For those who don't like FB, people can't seem to understand why the site is so popular, for those who use it regularly, and that number is in the 10's of thousands worldwide, they can't live without it. It's not a fad. You and I have been truckin' around these blogs together for years now though, so we'll see who ends up being right three or four years from now.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is they'll end up being another Apple. If I'm wrong, please never let me live it down ;-)
Question for you though: What do you think the millions and millions of us who use FB to keep in touch with friends and family all over the world are going to do? Suddenly not want to keep in touch? Or just move on to the next big sight? Taking the years of updates, and history with us? I can't imagine my nieces and nephews and cousins who live abroad suddenly not wanting to keep my sisters and uncles up to date on what they're doing. . . .
How much would you pay for this ability, with the understanding that networked device-to-networked device, Skype is free, and email is free?
DeleteI know how to create an email address list. Maybe I'm a dying breed. Well, I guess that's for sure!
FWIW, I think you're wrong, Thor, but if FB can build a war chest and then build on what they've done with something truly substantial, then I might think they have a future. Otherwise, I honestly don't buy this thing long term. I just don't. The ads are garbage. I honestly don't ever click on any ads there and don't know many who do.
DeleteI've also noticed quite a few people in my "network" on FB who never post anymore. Ever. So I do think people are tiring of it. There are tons of ways to stay in touch with people to whom we are really close and WANT to stay in touch. FB is hardly the only option on that front.
DeleteRock - how much do people pay to use google?
ReplyDeleteAnd I'd pay a subscription fee for FB - all of my trips are in there, countless posts and comments I value, etc.
Interesting that so much of the negativity toward FB doesn't include Twitter.
So like Mannwich's article said, they have to capture the advertising dollar. Or perhaps the video streaming dollar.
DeleteThere's only so much of that to go around, as Google is finding out. So Goog had to diversify. and content is still king.
"Will see". But I too don't see the value proposition, as the article said.
Rock - well, I won't argue that FB is worth 100 billion, it's not. Like with Google however, we have no idea what FB is really using all of that personal data for. One thing is for sure though, FB has infinitely more information about you than Google does. That's what I think has wall street chomping at the bit. Just looking at the profiles of some of my younger nieces and nephews, I can tell you their age, their phone number, their address, where they went to high school, where they're enrolled in college, what kind of music they listen to, where they eat, on and on and on. Can you not see the value of that kind of information to advertisers? That kind of information is priceless to companies like Nike, Proctor & Gamble, Apple, or Mc Donalds.
DeleteWhat I've noticed over the last couple of years with FB is VERY reminiscent of what I used to see with Apple during the 90's. People who use it regularly, and have a lot of familiarity with FB are extremely loyal to the brand, people who either have never used it, or use it sparingly, can't seem to understand what all the hoopla is about.
As I said, time will tell! :-)
Forgot to mention something else that I think play a role in my pro FB opinion. When we tracked end user internet traffic at work, FaceBook was by far the number one site people were using at work. There were times when as much as a quarter of our staff was logged in at any one time. No news site, blog, or gossip site even came close. I've been in IT 17 years now and I've never seen anything come even remotely close to that. The only time I can remember when more than 10-15% of logged users were on the same site was 9-11
DeleteI feel the same way about Twitter, incidentally, and all of these other "social networking" sites. Ditto LinkedIn, although that's become a sales and recruiting tool, so a different animal. More of utility on that front. I simply see fatigue setting in and know tons of people who never go there anymore, or have never set up an account, nor do they plan to. And they keep in touch with who they want to without all the clutter and seem all that much happier and content. I see people rebelling against all forms of "clutter" and FB is part of that.
DeleteOh! LinkedIn too? I just rejoined that after about a decade. I couldn't believe how much it changed. Nice though, you can find your old bosses and have them verify your previous positions.
DeleteI can see where businesses might value that.
Interesting thoughts on FB Manny, I have a totally different experience, but then I'm also in a different demographic living in a hyper trendy place. I can admit that I may be a bit biased :-p
Also - video phones have been around for years now, people just aren't as interested in it the way many folks thought. I personally dislike it.
ReplyDeleteI don't want people to see what I look like first thing in the morning :p
I bet you're beautiful!!!!
Delete:-)>
Today's herds report: TAN still tops the list but it has an advantage, $.01 change gives it 0.3%. But this is still a 5-day average, so it's still doing well. I made a lot of money today on FSLR.
ReplyDeleteBest:
TAN 7%
XHB DIG 5%
XES 4%
$HGX.X $DJTFVS GEX XBI XOP UCC 3%
KOL OIH KCE $BKX $DJTCNS $DJTINN $OIX.X KIE IYE IAK KRE KBE IGV BBH IBB XLF SLX $XAL 2$
Worst:
SKF -11%
SMN -7%
GDX -4%
$DJT -3%
GLD IAU USO DBA XLU IDU XLF -2%
Looking at the metals and mining, many are beginning to roll over.
@Thor,
ReplyDeleteRe ChIndia, check out FXI and EPI, and see where money is been going since the start of this year. Risk assets.
Not recommending though. Just pointing out.
ICan
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteAre you a Con Artist?
ICan
@Ican:
ReplyDeleteNo, I am a "Can" artist
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteThanks for being the straight man. Red Skelton never had better!
I'm starting to believe that The Big O will indeed be a two term president. Look at the alternatives rip each other to shreds.
ReplyDelete@Thor: You think so? so does he...
ReplyDeletehttp://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2012/02/05/obama-lets-face-it-i-deserve-a-second-term/comment-page-1/
So i guess you're in good company.....
Rock, Hah, I don't know about deserves, but I certainly prefer him over the crazies the GOP have running. :-P
ReplyDeleteWho know's, maybe he'll develop a spine in his second term.
I think Obama's got this thing locked up, unless the economy tanks again. The GOP clown car is about to drive right over the cliff, if it hasn't done so already. The GOP elites must be aghast at this development. It's Goldwater all over again, but from the religious right. What's really funny is that the GOP's strategy of pandering to the religious right but never really doing much in terms of policy to satisfy them (sound familiar?) is coming home to roost.
ReplyDeleteThor - My views tend to be more conservative then yours, I did not vote for Obummer and doubt I would again, but there is one thing for certain, I would not vote for Newt even if he was the only one running.
ReplyDeleteMutt
I agree with Mutt. It could be worse, we could have Palin.
ReplyDeleteDollar's up a little today, but pressure continues downward. I think people are expecting the structurals in the Eurozone to step in and solidify the grease situation.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg said that the action today is not in equities, it's in derivatives. Volume is still very light in equities, which makes large quick moves possible.
I see some significant pullbacks in some strong stocks. Have a look at
AMLN USG SGMS RAX BKS SFLY
morning folks
ReplyDeleteGood News! one of my favorite indicators is working again! The Stockcharts.com $spxa50 TLB has broken out of the massive move we saw in November. It's currently at 441, meaning 441 of the S&P500 are trading above their 50 day MA.
ReplyDeleteBery bery bullish. We'll see if we have a turnaround today, but I doubt it.
2 more pullbacks of strong stocks: APKT and ANR
ReplyDeleteCan't keep a rigged market down. Obviously. LOL. Benny get what Benny wants.
ReplyDeleteIs much of this simply money still flowing out of European stocks and into U.S. ones? For now?
I wonder how much longer Zero Hedge can hold out?
ReplyDeleteI mean, it must get tiresome (and tiring) predicting the end of the world as we know it, virtually every single day for several years now.
ReplyDeleteManny - You know, I've been wondering about that for years! Their comments section is still pretty large eh? I also wonder about BR. I know his traffic is still up, but it's difficult to see how he can keep that site as popular as it's been without regular intelligent comments. I know he uses that readership as a selling point to his investment business.
ReplyDeleteHey Manny - can you let us know which time zone you see? Still can't figure out why our timeline switched from EST to PST . . . .
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteOn Feb.2, 2012
My comment,"If you like take a look at V chart".
Did you?
ICan
Manny, I'll tell you what's tiring, hearing that the end of the world is right around the corner. The here and now is shitty enough, people get sick of the pessimism. I have to admit, it would be nice to hear them blow smoke up our asses every once in awhile, a little false encouragement never hurts ;-)
ReplyDelete@ICan:
ReplyDeleteRE: I'm not sure the time of your post, your 4:05PM
Yes, I saw the V chart and looked into it.
A 13% run in 2 weeks is pretty good, but my relative strength shows it to be 4% better than the S&P.
Their balance sheet is great, MC reported and knowcked the cover off the ball, and I expect V will do the same. I would like to see a higher free cash flow to revenue ratio, but it's OK. They must be having a lot of executive lunches....P/E's a little high for me.
I won't trade V because price is too high, and I won't chase stocks up, I always wait for a pullback, and actually, there are others with better relative strength in the financials (which, as my herd reports indicate, are among the best performers). Take a look at SHLD, for example. After it's pullback, the volume went way up as did price, I have it's relative strength at 15%, and I've been trading it since it's turnaround, where it's gained 50%. I've realized over 80% on that one.
V was a good investment when you mentioned it, I think it was just at 100 and had finished a pullback, but because of it's expense, I didn't go for it.
I wouldn't go there now. There are easier trades.
Have a look at PHH. Volume is up over the last month, confirming it's price position and rise. It ended a substantial pullback with a capitulation on 1/8, and the price held. I like to see that. That's when I went in, a pullback, a capitulation, with holding price, and a volume increase confirmation. And yes, I know what they do....evil mortgage guys.
BTW, I am looking for a pullback on PHH, it went way up really fast, and my experience is that we get a fibonacci retracement on those kinds of moves, unless volume is increasing. It isn't.
ReplyDeleteVisa, wow open! But later..? Who knows?
ReplyDeleteICan
@Thor: I've slowly come to the realization that humankind has been kicking the can forward for centuries now in different, but still significant ways. Why wouldn't that simply continue now? Life rolls onward, despite what the doomsayer types at ZH say every day. I still read their blog though. A great contrary indicator and still some good stuff here and there. Never read the comments though.
ReplyDeleteAm sure glad I held my AAPL through that dip a ways back. Wish I had added on. Good call, guys.
ReplyDeletemorning folks
ReplyDeleteManny - wow, didn't know you bought Apple! Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteHuh, the employment situation really does appear to be improving. Is that real? I wonder how long it can last.
ReplyDeleteMy ex-mother-in-law wants to treat me to a trip to Taiwan to thank me for the AAPL position. She's meade a lotta money, and more to come, I think.
ReplyDeleteToday's herds report:
ReplyDeleteBest
TAN 14%
itb DIG 4%
GEX $HGX.X XOP 3%
$OIX.X XHB BKX 2%
Worst:
SKF -7% (even with greece news, banks continue up
GDX SMN -5%
GLD IAU SLV XME $DJTBAS DBA XBI -3%
IYH CUZ IHE IRET XLV VHT $DJT BBH IBB XLU $DJTTEL IDU -2%
Again, it says get into banks, Go Solar, and get out of precious metals.
I thought the metals and mining was depressed, as BTW is energy, so I was looking for those to pop, but they have not. Which is why I lose my opinion when the market opens so I don't lose my money.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteI kept 3 shares of SU around just so I could look back in time. So far, that investment has lost 22.36%.
I'm so glad I'm an active trader!
Am I off base in thinking that this austerity deal for the Greeks does nothing to address their eroding economic situation, which will then further feed their debt problem even more in a vicious negative feedback loop? Or am I missing something here? How does this solve anything if their economy is still in shambles and they have decreasing tax receipts to cover their still quite large debt? I'm puzzled. But then again I'm just an average person, so what do I know?
ReplyDelete@Rock: Based on the sham mortgage settlement today, do you STILL think that anyone significant is going to be charged for anything at this point? I don't. I think the administration has determined that's an onion it doesn't want to peel and is engaged instead in a massive cover up.
ReplyDeleteFor that alone, his legacy is forever tarnished.
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteYou're saying exactly what will happen. I saw a head on Bloomberg the other night make this exact point, and pointed out that another bailout will be needed 8-12 months in the future.
He said that Spain and Italy are taking steps to grow their economies, so he believed in the future of the Eurozone.
I found this blog, have verified none of its numbers so could be BS. But it sounds reasonable. Especially the part where government workers are overpaid compared to private workers with similar jobs.
http://www.greekdefaultwatch.com/2011/08/ten-surprising-facts-about-greek.html
Manny - Spot on man. All it's going to do is put another nail in their coffin. Why would any educated young person stay in Greece right now? How can Greece excel in future decades with a brain drain like that? They should have gone the way of Iceland, who, I might add, seem to be doing fine after thumbing their nose at the banks.
ReplyDeleteRock, I won't speak for Manny, but speaking for myself, my opposition to all this austerity is not mean that I think The Greeks have a system in dire need of reform. I just don't think reducing the standard of living of an entire nation back to third world levels is going to do anything but make things words. . . .
ReplyDeletenot mean that I think the Greeks DON'T have a system I meant :P
ReplyDeleteI guess the TPTB are counting on the confidence fairy to help improve things over there in Greece. Good luck with that. Either that, or they're counting on being able to simply steal, I mean privatize, any public good that have value over there, but I still don't see how that's a good thing if the entire country becomes a hellhole.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteI know very little about the agreement. There seems to be a lot of contrary information out there on the internet, and I have yet to find a link to the document, so I can read it and become more knowledgable.
For example, Yves believes that Fannie and Freddie loans are included:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/the-top-twelve-reasons-why-you-should-hate-the-mortgage-settlement.html
but MSNBC indicates they are not:
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/09/10363120-what-the-mortgage-settlement-means-to-you
Also, AFAIK which is not very far, the perjury and forgery for robosigning by mortgage processing companies is not covered by the agreement, and states such as Missouri continue to hand down indictments
http://crooksandliars.com/richard-rj-eskow/csi-missouri-robo-signing-indictm
Also, an interesting read on contracts based on fraud is
http://www.justanswer.com/law/0stfr-difficult-recind-sale-based-fraud.html
And I don't believe the agreement covers this, either. And there are probably as many avenues to travel down as there are attorneys wanting work.
"Will see" how this shakes out. There is a lot of white collar crime that never gets prosecuted because we just won't pay for enough prosecutors to do the job.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteAlso I found some information out on the internet that JPMorgan Chase hired some relatively untrained individuals to process the foreclosure documents. I doubt the agreement covers their perjury and forgery committed by these individuals covered in the agreement. So the banks may not be prosecuted for doing the foreclosure, but that doesn't excuse the forgers who forged notary's signatures, and the perjurers who went to court to lie about it.
I hope those people get prosecuted to the full extent of the law. They should be.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteEver been to Greece? It doesn't take much smarts to be a goat-herder or fisherman.
:-)> just kidding, just kidding, honest
People in government there have an expectation of overpayment. To counteract that, the people support a cash economy. When I went, my Amex was refused by several restaurants, (blamed it on Amex, of course) and would take only cash, since my Amex was refused.
They need to fix both sides, and get all to pay their fair share of taxes. As do we. Our time will come. Or I should say, your time will come, sorry. It won't happen in my lifetime.
Oh, I need to fix my grammar, or perhaps go back to 6th grade......I hope you get it.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteOh and don't forget to pay the 23% of the $2000 1099 you'll receive for getting illegally booted out of your house back to the government on or before April 15.
so I bought a little DMND today at the open, and parked a full position in my investment account. I' mentioning this because I never never buy a full position, I buy a few shares, then add as the trade goes in my direction, or get stopped out if it doesn't.
ReplyDeleteBut Based on what I heard from Bloomie, in no way does when they paid for their nuts affect the financials of the company by 50%.
I did the same thing on NFLX when it pulled back to I think 14, because I knew then that there was no way people who couldn't afford going to movie theaters would give up their movies. I tried to find out who owned Reddenbacker at the time, but couldn't. Now, I know it was DMND!
Rock(10:46)
ReplyDelete???
ICan
Rock - Yes, I've been to Greece. Glad you're kidding! :-)
ReplyDeleteAgain - not defending the mess there, just saying what they should have done is defaulted years ago and lived with the consequences the way Iceland has. All they've managed to do is impoverish their youth, or what will be left of their youth in 10 years, for no other reason than to pay the bankers.
ReplyDeleteHad they defaulted, all the same changes would likely have occurred because they would have had no other way to secure financing and would have to live within their means. . . . At this point, the only one's who are going to win are the banks. Hell, even the Germans should be made to pay for this mess, they're the idiots who loaned the Greeks money in the first place. Shame on them for not doing their own due diligence there. What happened to Capitalism? What happened to paying the price for a bad investment?
@Thor, Manny,
ReplyDeleteIf I see your handle in the blogosphere somewher, I'll be thinking of you. You guys are certainly compassionate. Thanks for having me here. Moving on...
But, since I am not a trader, I need to just stick to few blogs I regularly follow.
Thanks again.
Hah forgot to sign^
ReplyDeleteIndianCanadian.
New post is available.
ReplyDelete