Good volume at the head. Would like to see increasing volume on the right shoulder, but don't see it yet.
Friday, February 17, 2012
15 Minute H&S
I'll be interested to see where this goes.
Good volume at the head. Would like to see increasing volume on the right shoulder, but don't see it yet.
Good volume at the head. Would like to see increasing volume on the right shoulder, but don't see it yet.
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Downside target to 135.40.
ReplyDeleteIf it happens, that is truly a buying opportunity!
Greetings from Sandpoint, Idaho! Mutt, I spent today touring the Northeastern part of your state! Spent last night in Couer D'alene Idaho after spending the day driving up the Western spine of the state. Beautiful beautiful state, I've been to this part of the country before, but am going through back roads to see parts of the states I'd missed on other trips. I took highway two west from Spokane and across the Grand Coulee dam, very cool, then up and down the mountains North of there almost to the Canadian border. Part of this trip was to try to be in a snow storm, and I'm happy to say that Mutt totally came through for me and is sending me a storm from his part of the state right now. Woohoo! It doesn't sound like it's going to be a big storm 6-8 inches, where in CA in the mountains, storms usually produce snow measured in feet instead of inches. Either way, it'll be my first one, and this town I'm in is very cool. Ski area I guess, I passed a ton of them on my way east on highway 2. Every single one I saw was closed though, doesn't look like there's been much snow here this year. Also, oddly enough, all through Idaho and Washington, I've seen a ton of Ron Paul for President signs. THis is a very rural part of the country it seems so I guess that makes sense.
ReplyDeleteDepending on road conditions, I should be heading East again tomorrow into Norther Montana, probably not quite as far as East Glacier (the park is closed) then south on Highway 93 through Missoula and up and down the Rockies. First time I've taken my Flex on a big road trip and I have to say, it's handling well, best car I've ever had. It's low and very heavy, with a truck engine, and took the snow-packed roads through the mountains very well. I went through a pretty decent snow storm driving up the Eastern side of Nevada and when I got into Twin Falls Idaho that night the whole front of my car was a solid wall of ice an inch thick. You couldn't even see the grill, or the license plate or color of the car underneath.
I know I know, something you cold climate folks see all the time, but this was the first time I've seen that sorta thing so I thought it was very cool!
RE: BR -
ReplyDeleteManny - I think BR is great! You're right, his positions are all almost exactly like ours. Only problem is that I personally do not like him. Not as much as Mish or Denninger, but I've honestly tried to like him but just can't. I think he's a prick :P
He and I actually had it out about a month ago. I made some comment about some other readers were jabbering on about and he apparently didn't like it and banned me. It wasn't even that bad that I can remember, probably said that a bunch of middle aged white men who have never used FB not being the best folks to be taking investment advice on it :-P I emailed him to see what was up, and he replied with some tirade that I've been coming to his sight and being a dick to his readers with "my buddy Andy". Considering the amount of time I'd spent defending him, both here, and over there when they would go over to cause shit while all the drama was going on, I thought it was rude.
I've noticed that kind of behavior from him in the past, he can be a total dick to people commenting on his site, I've seen him say "that's the stupidest thing I've heard all year" or some other nonsense dozens of times over the years. I've spent a lot of time on various financial blogs over the years, and I have to tell you, he's about the only guy who does that. I just think it's rude :P and it says more about his personality than I think he realizes, or at least to me it does. . .
In any case, I really haven't gone over there more than once a week in almost a year. BR is great, but I don't think he's as good as NC or Calculated Risk so I spend more time over there.
Anyhoo, I wished BR luck in my last reply to him, and I really meant it (and still do). I just don't find his personality to be a good match for mine :-)
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteI've never seen Mish or Denninger invited on Bloomberg. Mish used to post on Minyanville, which I haven't watched lately because of time constraints, but I should catch up there. They've changed players quite a bit. I don't think he participates there anymore.
I have seen Minyanville's Todd on Bloomberg. First time I saw him, he talked so fast I didn't get almost everything he said, but lately he seems calmer. He was on rewind, as was BR, last week.
I think what may happen is these guys get contacted about playing the money by folks, then their perspective changes, and of course, you want to protect your clients, and do what you think is best for them, or what they told you they want.
Glad you're having fun in the snow. I remember it well. Too well. The black ice on the roads. The parking lots which are never cleared. Shoveling the roof. Scraping the windshield. Waiting while the condensation clears. Defrosting locks with solvent that changes the color of the car. Feet in paper bags with rubber bands around the legs. Plowing the driveway. Power lines down from ice and iced-trees. Walking very very carefully. Crazy drivers on the wrong side of the road, going 60 miles per hour when you can't see 5' in front of the car. That's the one I'll remember best. Or worst.
Rock - hah! Yes, I can imagine what this must be like to live in. Especially this part of the country, where they get a lot of snow, and even more wind. I'm in Montana now, have always loved it here, Big Sky indeed. Heading south from Missoula in the morning, and will probably meander through the mountains and cut back into eastern Idaho before I enter Wyoming just south of Yellowstone. A part of me regrets that all these national parks (Glacier, Yellowstone, & Teton) are closed, but I can imagine what this place must be like with all the tourists. I was lucky enough to get to see Yellowstone the first day it opened one year while it was still 10 feet deep in snow, there were almost no people there that day, a guide told us that during the summer, there are traffic jams all through the park!
ReplyDeleteThor: some friends and I used to climb the Tetons in winter. I think you can apply for a special pass to get in for winter mountaineering.
ReplyDeleteCheck with the Rangers office. Of course, times change, as do rules.
It's truly beautiful to visit, but it really sucks to live there. I can't believe Mannwich survives in Minnesota. He comes from hardier stock than I.
So the 15 minute H&S resolved to the upside. The pattern looked good until the right shoulder volume decreased, and the price moved to the upside.
ReplyDeleteAs volume goes down, that means the price commitment is not strong. We would need to see a bigger volume to commit to the rising price.
anyway, the pattern's broken. So we're probably still in the upside pressure: UUP (DXY) down, SPY up. Look at the MFI for the last couple days, you'll see money's flowing out of UUP.
I ask myself, with the eurozone credit and financial worth crisis, how can the Euro possibly go up in value? But there it is, Up.
That's why I say that I lose my opinion when the market opens so I don't lose my money.
Thor - For some reason the winter in all of North America seems to be execptionally mild, which for driving in is a good thing, but so much of this Pacific Northwest depends on a heavy snow fall and deep snow pack.
ReplyDeleteSome of those roads you have been talking about are beautiful to drive on no matter what time of year and seem to go on forever.
I hope the rest of your trip goes as well if not even better than the first half.
Keep us updated.
Mutt
I hear you, Thor. Glad to hear that you're having a great trip!
ReplyDelete@Thor: You'll enjoy this one if you're out there.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ourfuture.org/node/71402
Stopping in Riverton Wyoming for the night. Drive through Jackson Hole about as quick as I could earlier today, if you've seen one rich western mountain resort town, you've seen them all. The are around it is very beautiful though, and I got some decent cold, it was 10 degrees going over the pass outside of Jackson. I wasn't able to see the Tetons unfortunately as it was snowing heavily :-( Will drive around a bunch of Wyoming tomorrow and hopefully spending the night down in Northern Colorado.
ReplyDeleteManny - that story was funny! Libertarians can be so funny eh? I've been reading the comments sections on Politico a bit lately and man, that's where they all seem to be apparently. I guess they'd finally been laughed off most of the reputable financial websites.
Mutt - looks like there's been a lot of rain and snow up your way since I past through. We haven't really had a mild winter down in the desert this year, we've had a much colder and drier winter. I can only imagine how bad that's going to make this years fire season, it doesn't rain past March or April.
Today's herds report after the early session:
ReplyDeleteThe Best
DIG XOP 4%
USO 3%
TIF $DJTATO KRE XES $XAL 1%
Worst:
$DJTTR $DJT XME CUZ GDX SLV -2%
SLX SMN $DJTBAS BBH -3%
SKF -4%
TAN -5%
Gas is going up here. See DIG. I just paid 4.11 per gallon for premium. Too bad Thor's driving.....
So: The world likes the grease solution. Futures up a little. Talking heads say we're slowly grinding up.
ReplyDeleteLooking at $DJTBAS, we've started a turn lower, and money is flowing out of the basic materials. Same as transports. So this rally is likely not on fundamentals, because transports should be moving up as revenues increase for them to move stuff around the country/world, and basic materials should be up because for consumption to drive the rally, we need more basic materials processing. Then we should see energy up, and RTH up. Not seeing that at all.
Banks are up. I'm thinking this means the rally is structurally driven (by additional liquidity) so if you're looking to follow the trend, look to the banks. Look to the oils.
I get the sense that this Greek drama could go on for years. It already has. One thing that it's done is take the focus away from our problems, buying us time for a somewhat real quasi-recovery to take hold. How much longer can it go on though? None of the Greek bailout deals do anything to address the problem of a depressed economy. In fact, most of these policies only make that situation worse, which in turn makes it impossible for them to service the debt they owe. Honestly, as the whole world gone mad?
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I think misdirection is a well-applied tool by the Ubers.
I remember the day when all Bloomberg could talk about was the sex life of the Oracle CFO Mark Hurd's sex life. Like that was the thing moving markets. I actually sent a complaint letter to the programming director of Bloomberg TV and told her that they should report something other than about scarlet letters.
So you can be prepared for something after grease. Who knows? We should list categories and give odds and take wagers. Could monetize this blog!
Exactly my point, Rock. When problems are big, 'tis human nature to focus on everything else as if it's going to solve the very problem they cannot solve. They can distract the Sheeple and buy time though, which for human beings probably has gone on since the beginning of time.
ReplyDeleteRock - Mark Hurd's, sex life probably did NOT move the markets, but I as sure it did manage to move something.
ReplyDeleteMutt
Thor - My man where are you we need to party like it it 1999, the DOW just past 13,000 all is well with the world now, the can has been kicked so far down the road, we can not even see it any more WOOOOOOHOOOOOO
ReplyDeleteMutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYep, we're still on track for the June/July high.....gotta love those longs!
UUP is in the process of breaking out of its upchannel today. If we get confirmation tomorrow, well, it looks like up to me.
ReplyDeleteI'm playing very short timeframes in this chop, and not staying in overnight. I'd like to see some direction here, but because the media can't decide whom to target, the psychologicals aren't lining up with anything to set or reinforce a direction.
I'm still tending to think we're higher, but I keep getting stopped out in this chop. This is a hard way to make money.
I mean the UUP down, the market up. Don't want to sound confused, although I am.....
DeleteRock - So UUP is down?
ReplyDeleteMy wife has a way of saying things that make absolutly no sense until she explains them....Then they still make no sense.
A while back she and I were talking and said "The tippy top of the bottom"
My reaction was "HuH?" How can the bottom of something have a tippy top?
I mean by definition the bottom of something is it's lowest point.
But she explained to me that the tippy top of the bottom is the lowest point of the bottom.....HUH?????
Anyway your UUP down above, below made me think of that.
Mutt
Then on the way to work this morning, it came to me ROCK bottom is also a term people use.
DeleteBut I am sure Rock's bottom is cute...
Mutt
Bloomberg has a segment called "bottom line" hosted by Mark Crompton. I always wondered about that......But I bet Victoria Secret's "Bottom Line" is better....
DeleteUUP is up and down. Can't seem to decide. Market's the same. Today I'm mostly doing research and watching. Looking for a trend to follow, but the SPY seems to be flatted out, as does the UUP.
ReplyDeleteI think wait and watch is a good thing today and tomorrow.
What an utter asshole and despicable person Mr. Larry Summers is.....I'm telling, him, Geithner and the Rubin crowd are to Obama was Rumsfeld and the neo-con crowd were/are to W:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tnr.com/article/politics/100961/memo-Larry-Summers-Obama
Mannwich - At this stage of the game I honestly do not believe it makes a difference who is president and who they pick as Cabnet Memebers.
ReplyDeleteThe rule of law has broken down to the point that people in power need to do what they are told, I believe Obummer came to office wide eyed and full of optimisim, but quickly learned if he did not do the bidding of the money handlers he would not even make it through his first term without being driven from office.
Yup the assholes may change, but they keep extruding the same shit.
Mangy Mutt
Today's herds report:
ReplyDeleteBest:
TAN USO DIG 4%
GEX $DJTCHE GDX XOP $DJTATO $DJTCNS 3%
XME $BKX SLV IAU 2%
Worst:
XLV IHE $HGX.X IHI ICF XHB CUZ $DJTTR -2%
$DJT SKF ITB -3%
IBB XBI -4%
BBH -5%
$XAL-6%
Interesting that TAN is back in favor. It had quite a pullback.
UUP looks down today, Euro stronger. Crazy up-down, no direction. I'm still watching.
SHLD announces the biggest quarterly loss in 9 years and the stock's up 18%. They're working on methods to pay their bills.
ReplyDeleteHmmmmm.....sounds about right to me.
\
I guess they're learning from Greece/Euro.
I tried to short the stock, but TDAmeritrade won't let me, again. I have to wonder what's going on.
After looking at the herds report, I went into DIG after it stopped it's freefall. Stop's tight, but looking good. Might pay for lunch today.
ReplyDeleteGerman confidence is great, but the rest of the eurozone is headed for recession.
ReplyDeleteBonds are topping? lower highs on the daily.
Are we going to see the bond bubble pop and the market go? As people are getting more comfortable, it might be time to exit bonds. Wish Leftback were still here.
Rock - I have been waiting for a pull back so I can enter a couple small positions I have been working on.
ReplyDeleteWell I guess I will just sit and wait awhile longer
Mutt
Rock - I frequent the other site "traderanonymous" from time to time and I have not seen or heard from him for quite some time.
ReplyDeleteMaybe he changed his name to "Left"?????
Mutt
Morning Folks
ReplyDeleteMutt
Hey Mutt! Where is everyone?
ReplyDeleteNot sure where everyone is, I know Thor is traveling.
ReplyDeleteThere has always been an ebb and flow to our blog and I guess we are in a quite period....
Mutt
Today'sw herds report:
ReplyDeleteUUP has confirmed the fall out of the uptrend, and resembles a crosscut saw. A downtrend is likely. Euro's getting stronger I guess based on the liquidity and on the private sector haircuts.
I'm looking for the market to stop tit's lateral movevment, and will start adding now on any pullbacks.
Best:
SLV USO 5% (Look at that, Mutt!!!)
GDX 4%
XES DIG OIH GLD IAU $DJTCNS 3%
$DJTCHE $DJTBAS KCE 2%
$DJTATO $DJTENG IYE $OIX.X $DJTINN IYZ XOP $DJTFVS $DJTNCG $DJTTEL 1%
And the worst:
IDU RTH XLP IXJ XHB XLU SKF SLX KOL KRE KBE VHT IGV XLV IYH -1%
$HGX.X ICF GEX IBB IHI $DJTTR $DJT TIF -2%
SMH ITB $SOX.X XBI TAN -3%
BBH -4%
$XAL -9% (ouch!)
TAN is bouncing around like a ball of flubber. I guess I'm just looking for trends, and don't see any.
As the dollar goes down, I expect to see the GLDs and SLVs go up. But it's interesting to see the miners GDX getting a pop over the metals. I look at them and they seem depressed,, so I'm looking for them to move more than the market.
"Will See"
Gotta get out of that "bottom line"
ReplyDeleteThe SPY is back to it's high from Tuesday. Any bets from here? I bet we grind up and close at this high today. Will look for a pullback this afternoon, and probably enter 2 1/2 positions over the weekend. NBot sure which ones yet.
ReplyDeletePls excuse my typos. I have to use the notebook because my USB ports on the tradinbg desktop are having trouble. I've asked for the IT guys to work on it, and they did. Now nothing I/O works.
Thor should apply......
This morning's herds report:
ReplyDeleteThe best:
USO 6%
SLV 5%
DIG XES 4%
$DJTCNS OIH 3%
$DJTCHE $DJTENG GDX $DJTBAS IAU GLD KCE IYE $DJTATO $OIX.X $DJTINN 1%
The worst:
XRT RTH XLU SKF IXJ KOL XLF IAK IHI VHT XLV IYH SMN -1%
$BKX IRET ICF KBE KRE IBB TIF -2%
XHB SMH $DJT $DJTTR $HGX.X XBI GEX $SOX.X -3%
BBH ITB -4%
TAN -6%
$XAL -11%
Comments? Mutt made the SLV call. Looks like the oils are still there.
The solars aren't doing so well.
Early morning trades are making the dollar a little hihget, but it's still on a falling downtrend. If I saw UUP around 21.60, I'd say we're on a confirmed downtrend, but I'm afraid this is still part of the crosscut saw pattern: up-down-up-down. No clear direction.
My long-term feeling is still up up and away, but this chop and tight range is making it difficult to make lunch money. The last 5 days have traded up and down in a <1.8% range with no direction.
I'd put up a new post, but there's nothing to say, no direction, no confirmation. and we don't have many comments here, so I'll just let her ride for awhile.
Our open this morning seems around 136.17, right near the middle of 2 weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteThe high of May 1 2011 was 137.18. We got up there last week, but haven't broken through, Over the last year, we've had increased volume, but lately, the volume is as low as a year ago. It's really low. That means the fund traders aren't trading.
Just sayin'. Looks like the mom-and-pop trader aren't trading, and their money's still on the sideline, regardless of the greek and eurozone progress.
After the eurozone revaluation of sovereign debt, I'd be thinking that people would exit bonds. Well, I sure think wrong.
Rock - You have years of experience and are able to make technical arguments that are well worth paying attention to and this is helping me to learn what to look for.
ReplyDeleteOf course our view points are different so I see things from a differnt level then you do, which is a good thing.
I beleive as we neared support levels there would be a good size pull back and when that happened it would be a good oppertuninty to enter a small position in SLV, well as you know last we we had a major pull back, of what a whole 12 points or something, so I am still waiting to enter a position.
Will See
Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteI think waiting is good right now. I don't see any direction in anything over the latest short term. (week or two). It goes without saying that we've had quite a run-up since Dec/E, and it may be time for the pullback you mention.
The LTRO this week will indicate the risk direction. If it's on the small side as a result of the public sector taking a Greek haircut, I think you'll see the dollar grow stronger and the market retreat. Then you'll get your pullback.
But if the LTRO is huge, the eurobanks will use the cash to improve their balance sheets and the excess to invest in risk assets. Where? Germany, for one, and the US for the other. A huge LTRO will weaken the Euro, causing our dollar to strengthen, and the market tends to go down on a stronger dollar (not always true). But for sure, GLD and SLV go down on a stronger Bucky.
So I'm thinking the LTRO will be *big*, the market will tend lower, the eurobanks will invest in the US market, causing a stabilization, and then a continued up up and away.
This up up and away is of course entirely based in structurals. Maybe a little in psychologicals too. But definitely *not* in fundamentals or technicals. (Which is why DeMark blew it).
So I think you'll get your pullback this week, but after that, bucky will fall and SLV and GLD will continue higher.
Also, the miners are depressed, compared to the metals, so you might think about spreading your risk into some silver mining company like PAAS or something.
I frankly don't see a big pullback coming in the near term, short of a middle east conflict, which is not likely IMHO.
In my conviction of a lower bucky future, I re-entered my RMB position at 1.5% interest, plus the RMB/Bucky spread (as the RMB grows stronger, my % improves.
ReplyDeleteBlogger seems to be having some trouble here, I get "server not found" messages, so I'm thankful I compose in notepad and cut-and-paste here.
ReplyDeleteRock (7:37) - Blogger SUCKS
ReplyDeleteMutt
I heard this report over the weekend on Bloomberg TV.
ReplyDeleteYou think corruption is bad in our government? See
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-26/china-s-billionaire-lawmakers-make-u-s-peers-look-like-paupers.html
I had lunch with my bankster over the weekend. I've been investigating buying another property, and wanted to get a feel for the financial community's perspective.
ReplyDeleteIt was an eye-opener. As you know, the government extended the unemployment benefits for an additional 2 months. They paid for this by adding a service fee to mortgages by banks (who pass it on to the folks wanting loans, of course--they aren't paying for it out of their fee profits).
I asked myself, "Self, what does unemployment have to do with mortgages?", and my self has yet to answer that one.
Anyway, the other thing that was an absolute eye-opener is that they won't take an offer from an investor until offers from the folks who claim to want to make this property owner-occupied have been evaluated. In other words, they won't let the market set the price.
Ask yourself why. The answer is obvious: an investor will establish an LLC, and put the property into that LLC. Should the property fall in value, or should the property be unrented and not profitable, the LLC can simply go out of business with the exposure of the down payment, or 20%, and the bank would end up owning the property again. However, if a person owns the property, in order to default, the person's personal assets can be attached and pursued by the bank, giving the bank access to much more money than the 20% limitation from the LLC.
So I think the banks are looking at the Case-Schiller report that says housing will fall another 10% in value this year.
I thought this was an interesting datapoint.
Oh, sorry. The above comment applies to bank-owned and foreclosed properties only. IE, the bargains.
ReplyDeleteRock – From the graphs and charts I have looked, not only did house prices, but the number of available houses way over shoot historic norms. If you were to draw a trend line of what house prices “Should” be, you will see that nationally, we are just now getting to what they should be sans the bubble. And this does not even take into effect the over build, or the sub divisions that have been parceled and services run to, bur are waiting to be built on.
ReplyDeleteWe also need to take into consideration, your (Baby boom) generation was a big reason we have McMansions and “second” homes and a large portion of the upcoming 20 Somethings generation are coming out of school, with huge loans for soft degrees, so in reality neither the boomers nor the 20 somethings are in a position to be able to buy a house even if they wanted to.
This leaves Thors, Manny’s and my generation to buy, but the vast majority of us are not wanting to buy.
As you know anything that over shoots it’s historical pricing needs to eventually correct and that usually means a dip below the historical value, without a doubt I believe the policies the Fed’s and banks have put into place have keep house prices elevated more then they would have had they been left to correct, which makes me believe house prices (Nationally) have at least another 20+ % of decline and this will take years before we see an actual re-start of the housing market.
Also my wife and I were just this weekend talking about starting an LLC
And one more thing we have a house that we have an own (us) buyer (them) contract on and over the past 6 or so months we have been encouraging them to re-finance on their own so we will no longer be on the title, but they are not able to find anyone willing to lend them a 15 year fixed, the banks are only willing to loan at 3year ARMS and our buyers are not stupid enuff to leave the security of their 15 year fixed, nor are we mean enuff to force them onto their own loan.
Mutt
@Mutt:
ReplyDeleteYep. And that's why we need more people here able to buy and afford houses. I think I disagree with the outsource: that is, I don't think I want to offer special deals to foreigners with green card offers etc if they buy here. And since they are discouraging the individual investor, that leaves only the private equity solution which makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.
A new post is available.
ReplyDelete