The Locusts are Restless

China GDP is coming down, but inflation is on the rise (depending on what you read). GDP may be coming down because banks are tightening and building may be slowing. We know where that leads, right? But reported inflation is rising and is somewhere around 6%, according to the International Herald Tribune.

US says Pakistan leadership has lost credibility. (one could argue if they ever even had any to start with). US cut aid by 1/3. Going to improve the situation? No.

Egyptians back in the streets protesting. Instead of going bowling?

12 killed across Syria as thousands join protests.

Afgan’s president’s brother is assassinated. He was getting too powerful. Other afgani leaders are afraid, at least one has received a death notification by the Taliban.

Quad Daffy’s global legitimacy crumbles. US recognizes the rebel government and unfreezes assets for them to use.

We all know about the budget. Minn’s sad state of affairs. Bernank says massive layoffs will happen if no increase in the debt ceiling. Does that tell you our economy is based on a paper tiger or what? See what the results are for outsourcing?

Here’s the herd report. I should do this more often, I know. I think a lot of the news above is being baked in. I see money rotating into metals, gold, and stocks with international sales. As most of you know, I developed a screener which measures a stock’s performance against the S&P500. There is a 5-day performance factor, and a 20 day performance factor. If you see the 5 day at 0%, and the 20 day at –7%, you could conclude that this sector is turning around, heading positive. I know ithe data in the columns won’t line up, you’ll have to be flexible. I used % as the delimiter between the data points.


For a surprise, have a look at education. Big trend up, surprisingly. Relative strength for 20 day is around 10%, and for 5 day is around 4%. I don’t have a herd for the edu’s, so I’ve averaged (equally weighted) APOL STRA DV ESI COCO CECO as the indicator.

Food’s not so good. $DJTFOB is tracking the S&P for the last 5 days, 0% difference, but the 20 day for foods is 2% below the S&P.

Banks suck. Here’s the data:
Herd 5 day 20 day
XLF 0% -2%
SKF 5% -4%
$BKX -2% -6%
KRE -1% -4%
KBE -1.5% -6%

Chemicals are flat, at 0.

Coal is up. KOL is 4.5% for 5 day, and 5.5% for 20 day.

Aerospace (defense) ITA is –3% for 5 day and 20 day as well. I don’t have a defense herd, and it takes too long to do an average of the ones I follow. But I expect with the pentagon budget cuts looming, they won’t be doing well.

Autos are up. $DJTATO is 1% for the 5 day, and 4.5% for the 20 day.

Metals are looking good. Here:

Herd 5 day 20 day
XME 3.5% 7.5%
SLX 1 % 1%

Energy looks great:

Herd 5 day 20 day
XTXI 5% 15%
WFT 1% 5%

Financials suck.
Herd 5 day 20 day
KCE -1 % -6%

Oh, my pressssioussssss looks pretty to me as well as Gollum:

Herd 5 day 20 day
GLD 4% 2%
$DJTBAS 0% 3%
GDX 10% 12%
IAU 4% 2%
SLV 13% 10%
ZSL -3% -30% (could be a good short for a quick pop)

Healthcare looks like DOWN to me (I would never recommend trading individual stocks in this category because of the FDA news, and the algos read the news faster than I possibly can).

Herd 5 day 20 day
IYH 0% -2%
IXJ 0% -2%
XLV 0% -2%
VHT 0 % -1.5%

The Homies are certainly notwhere you wanna be.

Herd 5 day 20 day
$HGX.X -2% -5.7% (The PHILX housing sector)
$DJTCNS -2% -5.7%
XHB -2% -4%
ITB -2% -6.7%

Insurance isn’t the winner either:

Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJTINN -2.5% -6.7%
KIE -2% -4.7%
IAK -2% -4%

Staples “natto – so – good – o”. (Natto is Japanese and IMHO is not so good)
Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJTNCG 0% 0%
XLP 0% -2%
DBA 1.4% -1.5%

Techs are mixed, big cap techs up, semis and software down.

Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJULTC 1.4% 4.6%
SOX.X -4.4% -3%
SMH -4.5% -2.5%
IGV -3% 0%

Oils

Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJTENG 1% 0%
IYE 3% 4%
OIH 2.6% 5%
$OIX.X 2.3% 2.9%
USO 2% 0%
DIG 5.1% 10%

Oil operations XOP is a shining star, with 6.4% on the 5-day, and 9.2% on the 20 day.
Oil equipment XES is also up there with 2.4% on the 5 day, and 7.6% on the 20 day.

Reits don’t look good.

Herd 5 day 20 day
IRET 0% -7.7%
ICF 0% 0%
CUZ -2.5% 0%

Retails are holding their own, but consumer services are down. TIF of course, but consider the client.

Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJTRET 0% -1%
RTH 0% 1%
UCC -2% 4%
TIF 2% 7%
XRT 0% 3%

The solars aren’t so good right now:

Herd 5 day 20 day
TAN -2.5% -7%
GEX -1.7% -7.5%

Tellys aren’t doing well

Herd 5 day 20 day
IYZ -2% -3%
$DJTTEL 0% -3.4%

Transports are getting depressed with $DJT at –2% on the 5 day and 0% on the 20 day, and $DJTTR at –1.5% on the 5 day, and 0% on the 20 day.

Utilities:

Herd 5 day 20 day
$DJTUTS 0% -5%
UTH 0% 2%
XLU 0% -2%
IDU 0% -3%