Grece that wheel

Two weeks ago I mentioned Thursday Sep 1 as the first challenge in a raising s&p from the bottom on Aug 9.

Similarly to Aug 9 it played to the day so, yes I'm very glad of the results even though I'm still ways off of the 20 independent calls that I have for a target, in order to evaluate how reliable this kind of out of the box approach is. From Sep 1 we came down, being yesterday the lower mark and of course all because of Grece.

Is going to be a very very unexpected black swan because nobody knows that Grece is having um...some problems.Months ago the chinese appeared backing them up, but with such a secrecy and in such a haste (and being informed only in morning papers all over the world), that probably left some loose ends over there. So they are in problems again.

I was puzzled past Friday when the certainty of a Monday butchery in the equity markets because of a higly unexpected default from Grece.

Bringing the entire civilization to their knees. Don't get me wrong there are counterparty risk but this is what markets are made of; risk. Utterly collapse come with surprise, especially when banksters can make big coin "enabling" that kind of regrettable outcomes, particularly if being bailed out by taxpayers.

Two bailouts in a row (or three years appart) is not highly probable. Bankers know that so they are ranting but there's not going to be a few trillions waiting for them again, just to remain afloat.

Is clear for them that this time is different.They can ransack civilization but not that often.

What are they going to do? Just another big seizure and expect not being nationalized or chop into pieces? They are more sophisticated than that.

The pendulum is moving away from them and the focus is going to become main street otherwise no aggregate demand is going to appear and no more bussines for them. Anyway they are going to be protected if they don't blackmail too much.

Proof of that was Germany letting the entire globe known that they were going to beef up their banks if Grece defaults.

Which lead us to one of the very reason why the crisis became really scary. It wasn't the drying up of the commercial paper for corporations when Lehman brothers collapsed, the trauma.It was their collapse by itself what paralized the financial world and made it's way through the whole economy.

Of course there were lot other reasons but in markets perception is crucial in order to make people willing to bet money to an outcome. Germany was arresting that (perception) issue.

Monetary sovereign nations are going to respond "manufacturing" money and as long as the perception by the population is that they have the power to do that without the public certainty that things are spinning out of control, banksters are going to suck it up because is in their best interest to keep the wheel of economic activity moving, otherwise they are simply toast.

There's not room for a new massive bailout if regular people's lives don't improve, banksters got their trillions and I bet thet are pretty content with that.

For the s&p I'm expecting some important move by the end of the month sep 26-28 I'll study in more detail and post this weekend.

Dan


PS: I'm as perceptive as a caveman but I finally noticed that I'm almost writing alone here and two places for a weekly post is a bit much.
I'll just keep posting at dastrostockmarket.com and let other people make efforts in trying to accompany Rock's good and solid work.
Cheers