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Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Warning, Warning Will Robinson!

Double top in the down channel on the spy.




You can see where the downchannel created by the gap was broken, and an upchannel to try to fill the gap was started. The big gap down isn't likely to fill today. Turnaround Tuesday is almost over, so I'm looking for a pop overnight. Strength in AAPL, TIF, LGF, SOHU SPRD, SCO POT CLNE CHS WMB, NTAP.

Scary? not for me. my iPad 1 is still in my drawer.....

The chart was edited to include the fib retracement information. Should have included it because we know we have an 83% chance of hitting the first retracement line....

Getting old, it seems.

Anyway, check out PCLN, AAPL,QCOM, and VTR. The revenue stocks continue to do well. No pullback for them.

So I will expect a pop in the AM to fill the gap. Keep us in the horizontal trend trading range.

25 comments:

  1. As I mentioned yesterday, seems toppy, although AAPL seems impervious to any such things.

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  2. So ol' Rock hasn't been successful in trading the last couple weeks. Last Friday, every single trade I made went against me. Never happened before. Today, the same. So I've spent some time evaluating the trades to see what happened.

    You know rock's philosophy, if the trade starts out losing money, get out. My setups look for falling stocks which start reversing their trend by W formations with the right side of the W higher. These are getting harder to find (perhaps because we're kind of stuck in the trading range). When I make this trade, within 3 price bars, the price action turns around, as though there's no commitment on the part of the bots, and they're trading only to get a couple of bars, then they're out.

    I can't do that from here because my orders aren't executed quickly enough. My losses have been small (compared to my gains so far this year), but it's aggrevating that a trade doesn't last for more than 3 or 4 candlestick bars.

    I'm guessing because of the low volume and trader inactivity, the Bots' software has been changed to do less exploration and simply take immeidate profits.

    So I'll be looking for new setup technology, until we get some more volume in this market.

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  3. Rock - In the last post you made referance to toxic stuff coming out of China and for years we have heard about tainted dog food, baby food, intellectual theft and just down right inferior products being produced in China and if these are the stories we are hearing about, you know this means there are many more that we are not.

    We also hear all the time from MSM "The consumers want it" Well I am pretty certain that consumers do NOT want any of this crap they just have no choice.


    Oh I have the choice between Charmin or Snuggles, but I have no clue where or how it is made and I sure as heck do not remember paying any less for the name brand stuff being made here or there.

    I guess it just saddens me that businesses will stoop to that level and worse yet the goverment that we elected to protect us, does no such thing.

    Mutt

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  4. Thomas Frank nails it here. Basically what I've (and others) have been saying for years now how everything is corrupted now by everyone being on the take (you either play or get kicked to the curb), but this is brilliant writing.

    http://thebaffler.com/notebook/2012/03/too_smart_to_fail#.T2fkq2gJKA8.twitter

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  5. Tyranny of the Incompetent indeed (hat tip Leftback, wherever you are).

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  6. Ah, Rock's got it back! I just did 2 trades, and made $27!!!

    :-)>

    Just kidding. But I think I discovered my failure: I was too focused on the present and didn't judge my trade by changing timescale and looking at TBP.

    Actually, I haven't looked at TBP for awhile, I'll read Mannwich's article and then go read there.

    Then, we'll see if the trades cook up OK.

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  7. @Mannwich:

    We know we can't listen to professional politicians. Are there any non-pros out there?

    I got a couple names to read from that article. Got a few more lying around?

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    Replies
    1. True but it's not just the politicians. It's the whole cognoscenti from the mainstream media to corporate and academic elites. They've all been bought off and would rather be wrong within that group-think dynamic then be right outside of it. A bunch of corrupted cowards running the show and enabling the whole thing at our expense. I guess I shouldn't be surprised but part of me thought the public wouldn't allow it. Maybe it's going to take another bigger crisis to break their stranglehold over everything?

      Delete
  8. I'm glad I'm old. I'm sorry I didn't wake up to this a long time ago.

    I'm sorry I abandoned some positions where if I had stayed, and if I had gained this knowledge, I might have made a small difference.

    Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    @Mutt:

    I entered a long position on AGQ today, at the close. The signs are pointing up to me. That's not to say we won't go down, but I have a stop loss at 52.35.

    Will see.

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  9. On Cobra's site, effectively yesterday now, is an excellent overview of how the HFT's move the market so they can make profits.

    The underlying problem with the market movement is that the market is bigger than the HFTs, and their moves ultimately fail (or succeed if that's the way the market wants to go). The HFT moves are transitory.

    This is why Rock has been failing lately to make money. I have fallen into the trap laid by the HFT's. To fix this, I simply have to move my timeframes longer.

    I've run some screens, and in fact, this is so. My trades, had they been made later in time (after the HFT effect wore off), or held longer, would have been mostly successful.

    If you're interested, here's the link, look for Steve Walsh's posts.

    http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=493&start=80

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  10. My little short term top call is looking pretty decent so far.

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  11. But that Benny Put (which has now gone global) still looms to put a floor under any pullback, it seems.

    Complacency seems to me, pretty damn high.

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  12. I don't often comment about sports here, but I just have to comment about the Jets.

    Now, with 2 great quarterbacks, they could put both in the backfield, and the opposing team would never be able to figure out what defense to run. Also, the options play would have much more meaning. The only downside is that the second QB wouldn't be "protected", and he'd actually have to learn to block. And maybe tackle.

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  13. @Rock: The biggest problem I see with the Tebow acquisition is that it's going to make fragile Mark Sanchez even more insecure. Trust me, those brutal NY fans are going to be chanting Tebow to be their starting QB within a few weeks of the start of the season, maybe sooner than that. It's going to be a circus. I view this pick up as a pure PR move on the Jets' part that's more likely than not to backfire on them.

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  14. @Mannwich:

    Looks like UR right. Again. I didn't start a position in the VXX but the futures may have lower expectation. I'm thinking as you are, a significant lower future won't come true, any dip of significance will be bought. So the VXX will continue to fall.

    Maybe after this short top's over, it's time to short the VXX.

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  15. We made it all the way through winter without the schools taking a snow day, last night it snowed about an inch, I took my son to school this morning and the parking lot was empty came back home to find out they are on a two hour delay.

    Oh well, it gave me a chance to make homemade breakfast burritos and now I can go take a nap.

    Wooooo Hoooo

    Mut

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  16. We don't have snow days here. We have crazed lawyer days.

    I looked for the article covering when Los Gatos high had to be closed because a crazy lawyer barricaded himself in his office with a rifle. His office overlooked the entrance to Los Gatos high.

    He shot himself and was dead for 6-7 hours before the police worked up their nerve to storm his office.

    We don't have snow days.

    But I couldn't find the article. Sorry.

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  17. UUP is at the bottom, or slightly below it's upchannel support I have around 22.10. The market seems to have been held up well by the plungers, and other financial activity, and Bucky's started down again today, after a large gap. The gap is so big, it's not likely to recover.

    SLV is up (as expected).

    If Bucky continues to float downward, the SLV pullback from 36.60 to 30.60 may be over.

    I'd nibble a little here, but my chart indicators aren't conclusive yet, mostly because of the move from march 6-9. My chart indicators don't do well with something that has this much volatility.

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  18. Rock - I am only doing very little and very light trading right now, but silver is one that I am playing with.

    And when I say light....I mean light if I break even with the trading costs, I will consider it a score.

    But I really think silver has some room to move and will be fairly volitile, so if I can establish something and I get bold enuff, I just might make a couple few dollars.

    Will See

    Mutt

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  19. So the other think I am thinking:

    PC sales are down. Every talking head says tablets and phones are taking over. I used a friend's iPad3 yesterday, and couldn't look at my bank statement, because the browser doesn't support that kind of cookie. I was told by him that there are lots of websites you can't see with the pad. /rant.

    Anyway, this comment's not about that, it's about wassup with the PC industry. Dell missed revenues on its quarter, and is down. Meg announced that she's integrating the cash cow (printers) with the PC business (it used to be integrated, but because the PCs were doing so well at that time, the PC guys wanted their bonuses, so they split it out). Now the PC guys' bonuses are suffering.

    So whose else bonus will suffer? Who will have a cutback? Here are my candidates:

    1. HP (they'll of course blame the consolidation)
    2. Dell. Goes without saying.
    3. Symantec (most business is in consumer side, see their balance sheet)
    4. What's the name and the ticker of that PC power supply company in Taiwan? I want to say it begins with A, but honestly I can't remember. Maybe Antec.

    I think PC industry suppliers are about to take it on the chin, and report lower revenues. I think they are short candidates, but HP probably won't move much because of the printer cover-up. BTW, I just bought a color laser printer, and HP, AIO. I like it very very much. Good paper handling. But the ink cartridges cost almost as much as the printer (razorblades). (before I had a Canon black only laser, it works great but I donated it because occasionally I want to print color)

    Anyway, anybody got a suggestion on other PC component suppliers, maybe the speaker companies, they could be good short candidates.

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  20. Maybe Microsoft? How much of their business is PC software now?

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  21. I've been to Dartmouth many many times. However, only one D graduate ever worked for me. I did not hire him, but I had to fire him. He was worthless.

    Not to say Kim is worthless for finance, but Kim is worthless for finance and will be led around by the ring in his nose. Geithner will eat him for lunch, especially since Geithner is a grad of Dartmouth as well.

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  22. Maybe some reasons why Rock's not making much money anymore (getting a little better this week, made lunch money but no more than that)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/8753784/The-300m-cable-that-will-save-traders-milliseconds.html

    and

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/cris-sheridan/hft-revolution-six-reasons-why-its-taking-over-markets

    ReplyDelete
  23. Eating Each OtherMarch 23, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    Rock - I would be perfectly fine with me if they all just ate each other for lunch...breakfast...Snack....Who cares.

    We use to have a saying about the stupid wanna be gangsta's in our neighborhood - "Let them shoot themselves to death"

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete