Almost every trade lately has either broken even or lost money. It seems when I get a setup, the trade goes in my favor but suddenly the market reverses and I get stopped out.
Maybe my stops are too tight because of my fear of headlines. The headlines now don't affect sectors or stocks, they affect the entire market because of the newsreaders’ tie to the computer algos. I'm going to analyze my last few trades, but I can't archive the newsfeed so it's hard to coordinate the market moves with the headlines for analysis purposes.
For awhile there I was doing well with the ETF's, but not the last 1.5 weeks.
I'm still looking for the maybe S&P 1280-1300 at Christmas time, because of the light volume and traders on vacation. But after the trading desks get repopulated when the holidays are over, I agree with a pullback. We have only 10 days until Christmas, so it’s not inconceivable we can stay right around 124-126 and chop the heck out of my setups/trades.
Wolfstreet said: “* S&P500 facing down trendline resistance around 1260/1270, as is daily RSI.
* Daily stochastics show overbuying
”So my bet is we go lower from here, to revisit the 1200.”
In support of this, there is a triple top on the 60 minute chart at 1269, with some fairly significant volume. The volume is low, but for these tops, it’s higher than the usual low.
If the pullback goes all the way to 1200, a) that'll be good for me, finally a trend I can follow, and b)I'll probably be looking for a 130 in spring as opposed to the 140.
If it goes to the 130 in spring, that will be low enough and give time enough for a pullback then rally higher into Nov 8.
Here’s the 60 minute chart, witth the regression channel drawn in by TDAmeritrade’s algo. The vertical bars are drawn at the 60 minute price peaks. Follow them down to the volume line, and you’ll see larger than usual volume there. Chart courtesy of TDAmeritrade Strategy Desk.
My opinion is that we won’t see 1200, not because the chart doesn’t support it, but the PMs will release news headlines on the start of any significant drop, causing the autonewsreaders to feed the algocomputers a positive signal, and poof up we go.
This may be our new Plunger team. I think the PM's got this one figured out, and they don't even have to use the Fed's cash or loans to banks to make it happen.
Thanks Rock. However, are you sure about algos being "tied to newsreaders"? I guess the comps have to be monitoring the news somehow, but can't imagine how this is achieved.
ReplyDelete@WolfStreet
ReplyDeleteI'm sure.
I happen to know a little about scanning data and using tools like hidden markov modelling to establish probabilities that the data contains or indicates some desired result. And when measuring english, or any other language, which is not encrypted or disguised in some other manner, it's like falling off a log. Nobody encrypts headlines.
It is a simple matter to integrate this data with data on, say, price, volume, and other market parameters that your trading computer might be monitoring, and make or adjust trades accordingly.
Absolutely is done today, with today's tools.
Suppose you set up a single line matrix and scanned for "ECB", "buy", and "bond". If you find that, you run the single line through your algorithm whose output would be a 1 for positives found, and 0 for negatives found. Your algo would then have the 1 output for "ECB will buy more eurozone bonds" or 0 for "ECB buys no bonds from Portugal".
Feed the "1" result into your algo computer that's looking at price and bid/ask and last which has already started to tick higher, and your algo would purchase 100000 shares of the SPY which gets deployed across the entire market.
Yep yep. Is done today. With lots more sophisticated analysis that my simple example above.
@Mannwich. Watched Margin Call tonite with a friend.
ReplyDeleteIt tied me in knots. My friend, however, is an MD and didn't like it. (as you get older, make MDs, Lots and Lots of MDs, your friends).
I would have liked it better if The Mentalist hadn't played the boss. I was half-expecting some miraculous revelation.......
@Mannwich:
ReplyDeletePollyanna here likes movies where the good guys win.
From DJ Newswire:
ReplyDelete"PARIS (AFP)--The French government will not use state funds to assist banks in their efforts to build up capital after being hit by the eurozone debt crisis, Budget Minister Valerie Pecresse said Sunday. "The state will not put money into French banks," Pecresse, who is also the government's spokeswoman, said in joint interview with Europe 1 radio and i>TELE television. "We think the banks' financing needs are not so great that they cannot face them on their own." "
How 'bout *that*!!! Kind of like
I created this problem by indiscriminate spending, you helped me by buying my debt, and now I won't help you out of this mess.
I mean, it's not like the state would be creating funds (like the Fed did to help our banks) but simply putting the state funds in local banks.
You talk about stench.
@Rock,2:21AM: Thanks. Must be a highly interesting field of computer programming (but highly technical too).
ReplyDeletere12:29PM: While I've heard that the French government asked banks to buy (and keep) sovereign debt, those banks don't need the help of politicians to screw up eventually.
Gotcha Rock. I prefer those as well but a good movie is a good movie. That is one hell of a movie. Old school pace to it but solid all around.
ReplyDeleteDid you enjoy it? Pretty compelling stuff, no?
ReplyDeleteLoved some of the subtle imagery, including the big dog cutting his meat after the day of trading debauchery.
Incidentally, one of my best friends here is an MD. Sports medicine.
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteWatched it again after Christmas shopping this afternoon.
Rather than watching the Raiders game.
Yeah, I liked it.
Did you notice they did exactly what MFGlobal did during the last days: trade like crazy to unload (leveraged) assets? It took a few days for people to get wise on MFGlobal, and it seemed only one morning to get wise to the movie's corporation.
That, in and of itself, is interesting. Almost makes you want to subscribe to the NYSE so you can see the trades.
Exactly Rock! Quite eerie if you ask me. And they fired their risk officer, just like the film. They need to go find that guy.
ReplyDeleteA must read on MFG: http://nyti.ms/tXQ9gh
ReplyDeletewow. I gotta research who wrote that screenplay.
ReplyDeleteWhat a lazy weekend. :-)
ReplyDeleteEvents on my trading radar:
ReplyDelete--Tuesday: First meeting of new Spanish parliament after election. A new prime minister must be elected by Dec. 28. Spanish T-Bill auction. Greek T-bill auction.
--Wednesday, Dec. 14: Italian bond auction. ECB 7-day dollar tender.
--Thursday, Dec. 15: Spanish bond auction.
Macro-Man blog:
ReplyDeleteThe market is reading EU treaty wrong. "Not the end of the world".
ICan
Here we go again. Problem solved, problem not solved, problem solved, problem not solved.....
ReplyDeleteKick the can, kick it again, again, and again.........
Mannwich - Agreed with you on the system being fixed then not, but that plays right into what Rock described in his post.
ReplyDeleteIf the Algos are set up to trade off headlines, it helps explain why there are so many wild swings.
It is just my humble opnion though, that one of these days the headlines or news is going to be in such a way that the Alogs are not going to know what to do.
And we will have to wait and see what happens then.
Mangy Mutt
Our latest swing points to Mannwich's call. Taking a look at the VXX, we are likely heading to 43.90 support/resistance line. See a couple of posts ago.
ReplyDeleteReasoning? ICan's comment. Fear that the Euro is doomed. Treasuries up. UUP up. All the signs are there.
TRIN is extremely bearish. Tick is trading below 0 (bearish).
But I'm still not going to be in overnight. Let the big boys play.
@Mutt
ReplyDeleteYour 11:21
Called the "flash crash". The algos are all responding faster on a lower trend. Take a look at the SPY 60 minute chart above. You can easily see that most of the time, it's a quick fall followed by a slow but sure rise. So all the algos are trained to follow that, until more retail money comes in and prevents such a rapid fall.
When there's an anomaly, be sure the algos will follow the quick fall.
If you're online when that happens, buy the QLD, and you'll have Surf and Turf that evening.
CT sells 600 million bonds. That doesn't sound so good.
ReplyDeleteI know interest rate is as low as can be, but I think CAT may have some trouble in the US and Europe, so needs the cash for it's US operations.
Another one of those I'd like to be a fly on the wall for.
Turn around Tuesday, anyone? We've already started up for tomorrow, and it's 20 minutes before close.
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteDXY can't go above 80? Can it?
So yeah that's what Cobra's saying.
I am looking at Cdn banks for dividends/income for my parents. We'll see. Havn't made up my mind yet.
ICan
busy day today :-(
ReplyDelete@ICan:
ReplyDeleteDXY can absolutely get stronger. The only thing that can keep it down, IMHO, is constant PM statements to indicate the Eurozone is correcting itself.
I think "Trust us" is no longer effective.
"FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank slowed sharply further its government bond purchases last week. Moreover, new ECB President Mario Draghi disillusioned markets with his dismissal Thursday of calls for massive bond buys that some politicians, market players and analysts regard as inevitable to end the euro zone's debt crisis."
So the ECB's not buying, the IMF is running short of funds, the PM's have to go back to their respective parliaments to get EFSF extra cash (think everyone will give?) in the amount everybody says isn't enough.
Like Mutt's comment above says, use delaying tactics to see if people start to spend and get us outta this mess.
In order to see another drop like 11/30, you need a silver bullet. I don't see one on the horizon, so I do expect the DXY to strengthen.
UUP closed today above where we were on 11/30. DXY is just a tiny bit below. When I draw the regression channel, id doesn't look like there's a break in the near term.
If we go in UUP to 22.45, we'll visit WolfStreet's 120 low. We're very near my 1 fibo retracement, so some PM better do something quick.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteBTW, I'm thinking short term.
For savings, think long term. In the long term, the Euro will strengthen. Nobody's printing press can run like the Fed's so you can be sure the US$ will head down, after a short (into April or so) trip up. By that time, Merkle will be gone and reasonable financial policy will hit the Eurozone.
I got out of my RMB and Sing$ a few months ago, when the Sing$ was 1.21. I forget exactly when that was, like just during my move back to the US. And I got back into US$ for the trip up. I'm thinking the trip up will be over around April because of the election. It'll go back down after April and not turn around again until after the election because that helps our exports.
I bad-mouthed HSBC on this blog. I'm sorry. It's so way better for international accounts than CITI. I went to CITI to see if I could change banks, but they don't have any international views and linked account capability between countries.
I'm sorry, HSBC. You are the better choice of the two.
I could have written this Op-Ed. Been my premise since this fiasco started.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-bankers-are-the-dictators-of-the-west-6275084.html
I know Rock thinks this (the U.S. now being a police state) is no problem, but I beg to differ:
ReplyDeletehttp://myoccupylaarrest.blogspot.com/2011/12/my-occupy-la-arrest-by-patrick-meighan.html?m=1
Italy works 20$ more hours than Germay AND France:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/italy-works-over-20-more-hours-than-germany-and-france/#respond
So much for the "lazy PIIGS" meme.
20%
ReplyDelete@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteNo, no no no no.....I like the police. They are kind of like Terminix
They keep the locusts from my door.
By the way, Mannwich, what country is not a police state?
Just curious.....
@MAnnwich: Did you mean 20 shift 5
ReplyDelete?
@Rock: Did you read the article I just posted about this person's experience? You like their treatment of nonviolent protesters? Sorry, but we differ on that front. We aren't SUPPOSED to be a police state. Or am I being naive.
ReplyDeleteYou're cool with it until they come for you and yours, apparently?
@Rock: The ironies of this arguably unconstitutional bill could be quite rich. Another viewpoint:
ReplyDeletehttp://naomiwolf.org/2011/12/how-congress-is-signing-its-own-arrest-warrants-in-the-ndaa-citizen-arrest-bill/
To go after nonviolent protesters with this much vigor while the real criminals in our financial system and society go not only unscathed but continue to fill their pockets even more is just sickening and repulsive on every level.
ReplyDeleteManny - I know, it's horrible. We'll have years of this too. Lost generation indeed. I do think we'll come out of it stronger. Notice that just like during The Depression, immigration has ground to a halt. These times will leave a huge mark on the people here living through it now, imagine what these poor kids coming out of college today are going to be like in 20 years. I'll bet they'll be a sober people. . .
ReplyDelete@Mannwich:
ReplyDeleteYour 10:00
Yes I read it.
I'm not sure because it's not in the article, but I believe the protesters were violating the law. When you violate the law, you have to be prepared for consequences. When you join a protest that violates the law, you must be prepared to put yourself in harm's way, with the knowledge that harm may come to you.
I'm not saying they were violating the law, but if they were, every individual participating should have known harm could come their way by the authorities.
I was at Kent State. We were told by organizers that it was possible we could be hurt. As a result, I and the two other guys kept well away from where the protest was being held, and just watched.
From the police' point of view, when a lawbreaker tells the cop he's a good guy, the cop sees a contradiction. Lawbreaker does not equal good. Remember the cops have to handle really bad people, and when they're called in, they have to be prepared to handle these really bad people. They have no idea what they're facing.
A similar thing happened to me, except I was not a lawbreaker. The police suspected my roommates and I were selling drugs to kids, they broke into our apartment, wrecked it, (there were no drugs) then called the media and said "look at the pig sty these hippies were living in". So that's pretty standard. I was pretty pissed off, because we had to get a new couch, and chairs for the living room, and 2 new mattresses.
It's too bad that police are necessary: Everyone should obey the law. But all in all, I think they do a pretty good job at keeping locusts from my door. I just wish one were around when my Christmas Lites were stolen.
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteUUP is a little higher in the premarket, Wo is the SPY. Interesting.
I've tried to trade the last few days but because there's no trend, I'm losing. Not much, but it seems the market won't take a position.
I'll be pretty much watching today, I think.
@Rock: The justifications for the crack downs in other places is that they're "violating the law". Isn't that the same? Who's law? What about that pesky little document, the Constitution?
ReplyDeleteYeah, that document does get in the way from time to time. :-)>
ReplyDeleteActually, I'll bet if we talked to an attorney who was familiar with Naomi's law, that if it's passed in that form, he would think it will likely be found unconstitutional.
But you don't know whether something is unconstitutional until some federal court somewhere says so. It's likely some people will be hurt while the test goes through the system, but that's our system and how it is defined.
So "who's law" means "our law as it exists on the books at the time and is interpreted by the court system".
Right now, there is a law passed that a US citizen cannot be surveilled on the internet from within the United States without a court order. Regardless of the law and court test that upholds that the internet is an open and public medium, like air, the use of which holds no explicit expectation of privacy.
It's a slippery slope is all I'm saying. People seem fine with these things until it infringes on THEIR lives and livelihood in some way. That's the problem.
ReplyDeleteUUP and SPY are both up. UUP is up .47%, and spy is up .30%.
ReplyDeleteWho knows? Maybe Rock guessed what can happen, that the SPY can go into 130 in the 2nd quarter, and the dollar can be stronger, euro weaker.
That just doesn't sit right with me.
@Mannwich
ReplyDeleteI agree.
Having been around the world and in some underprivileged areas of the US, I frankly haven't seen a better system.
Did you see on the chart that Sing works the most hours? That chart is specific to hourly people (the lowest paid) and Sing is so high because it's so expensive to live there. But I'll tell you this: The salaried there work far less hours than they do here, or in Japan. In Japan, I'd say 1/2 the salaried people work substantial overtime, and the rest work at a minimum the 9 hours/day expectation.
So Italy may be the same. I don't know, I'm just sayin'.
I agree, Rock, but we're sliding in the wrong direction, if you ask me. It worries me a bit.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg reported that now that she's back in Germany, Merkle is not supporting the additional funds for the EFSF that was agreed upon at the meeting last week.
ReplyDeleteThey are saying we could see the Euro go to par with the bucky.
That will hurt the market a lot. I guess I got lucky when I got out of Sing$ near the bucky low. As Morrison used to say, "it looks like up to me".
The Gingrich tax plan. In what world would this be deemed fair OR sane? A world whereby the right has moved so far to the right, they're off the spectrum entirely.
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/13/gingrich-helmsley-2012/
@Rock:
ReplyDeleteYour 11:13:
Don't you mean "that will hurt the market a lot" should be rewritten to mean:
"if we don't see eurozone funds spill over to our market, that may hurt the market a lot". Don't you think we might at least stay even, right around 120, in our currently defined trading range?
Mornin' folks!
ReplyDeleteManny, you have to love the current crop of GOP hopefuls though. Not that I'm a huge fan, but we're pretty much guaranteed O will be re-elected now. Keep pandering to your insane base GOP!
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteWe could hope for the big O to say "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President."
That would open some doors to qualified individuals.
Naw, ain't gonna happen. We just sold 16 more F16's to Iraq.
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteBloomberg says it will only increase the defecit by 1.3T$.
So who's gonna win? Give back the Freddie Mac money, or slaughtering all those jobs?
Rock - I know, never going to happen. Dare I say I wish Hilary had been elected? :-P
ReplyDeleteGotta love this NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The dollar turned up against the euro on Tuesday following reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel frowned upon the notion of increasing the size of Europe’s permanent bailout fund.
ReplyDelete“Any toxic euro rhetoric continues to bring a slew of sellers off the sidelines,” said Dean Popplewell, chief currency strategist at Oanda Corp.
All this talk about how Merkel is acting as Europe's savior. I'm with the folks arguing that she'll preside over Germany's third (and final?) destruction of Europe.
So many world leaders past and present who are young and will be around to hear their "legacies" taken out into the streets, tarred, feathered, and drowned, but an angry public. Like Hoover I guess, he not only lived through The Depression, he didn't die until 64!
@Thor: Do you really think things would be substantively different with Hillary there? She may have fought harder for things, but I doubt it. She's as much of a corporatist and banker apologist as Obama is. Maybe worse.
ReplyDeleteThis shit pile is FAR bigger than any one person or small group of people can change or even handle.
Manny - I do actually, I think she'd have had bigger balls ;) Maybe it's naive, but I don't believe that she'd have caved nearly as quickly, or as much, as O, not with Bill talking into her ear every night about what HE would do if HE were in charge again. Also don't think she'd have gone for the health care fiasco. Not after personally having tried it once a decade ago . . .
ReplyDeleteI think you're being naive, Thor. She'd have probably shown more "balls" for the cameras but she's part of the problem, Thor.
ReplyDeleteWe need to wipe the slate clean.
Manny - True, but you and I both know the chances of ever wiping the slate clean in our lifetimes is below zero. We are going to be faced with "less evil" the same way our parents and grandparents were. It's called politics ;-)
ReplyDeleteManny - and keep in mind that by your logic, Romney and Gingrinch will be essentially the same as Obama, will you be voting for either? If so, why not? They're both still part of the problem by your definition right? Why vote at all then?
ReplyDeleteNo, that's not my logic at all. My premise is that the Dems are the lesser of two very big evils when it comes to the parties, although that's not saying much.
ReplyDeleteYou don't think the GOP would have been just as vicious with Ms. Clinton as they have been with O? C'mon, you know better than that. It doesn't matter who the Dems put in there. It's always the same with the other side. And the Dems conveniently use it as an excuse to play their role, meaning the perfectly foil, giving them built-in excuses to get nothing done for the people. The old "those meanies in the GOP wouldn't let us" excuse. Pathetic.
@Thor:
ReplyDeleteYour 12:08
Bill doesn't look good.
He has aged tremendously over the last year. I'd rather he not be involved, and that he take care of his health. Being President is definitely detrimental to one's health.
Your 11:58
Have you discovered any articles which opine why she's doing this? I don't mean vascillating, but what does Germany or the Eurozone gain by not subsidizing the banks/debt?
I saw a vignette on Bloomberg that each person in Germany would have to pay an additional $8000 plus $5000/year should the Euro fail.
I'm just looking for some insight on "why".
@ICan:
ReplyDeleteDXY's at 80 just now.
Scott Walker recall campaign getting ugly. Bringing out all the jack booted crazy thugs on the Right. Just wonderful.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/13/scott-walker-recall-intimidation_n_1145736.html
@Rock(12:57)
ReplyDeleteAnd back below.
Bernanke speaks around 5pm ET today.
Risk is on while DXY is green. U.S. economy is BETTER than the rest.
But U$D holders FEAR BB!
ICan
re all politicians are the same: same here, in France. There's a feeling that no matter who gets elected next year, it's going to be the same circus all over again. I guess all European democracies are getting to the same conclusion: the real power lies with big money, and you don't get to elect that one.
ReplyDeleteProblem is: such popular disgust paves the way towards extremism. And war.
Traders' market this is.
ReplyDeleteRangebound.
SPX MA(200)-- 1260.
Ema(200)-- 1234.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteOops, I meant
ReplyDelete@ICan:
Do you mean
"Fear BB, U$D holders do."
:-)
@Rock,
ReplyDeleteFear of devaluation of currency.
ICan
In Yoda-speak, or in Obi-wan speak.....
ReplyDelete@Rock,
ReplyDeleteYoda.
That thought came to my mind too.
Oh no. We'are thinking alike. Not good.
The first move after the Fed-Speak is often a head-fake.
ReplyDeleteWatch out for a move to the upside.
"Will See."
@MAnnwich:
ReplyDeleteI have been in worse company.
Watch out for the move, here it comes. Tick is high, trin is beginning to trend low.
@Emmy,
ReplyDeleteStill long gold? Looks like 1651 is line in the sand?
Timingthemarket(see links on the side), yesterday were saying if gold breaks $1655 then it could go as low as 1531(Mark Leibovit). Check it out if you like.
So oil didn't even budge at all.
ReplyDelete@ICan:
ReplyDeleteIsn't gold tied to the Euro? As the Euro falls, the dollar gets stronger, and the gold bugs leave for the dollar.
I could be wrong.
Anyway, last I heard, there's not much hope of getting the Euro stronger in the short term. Merkle has screwed it.
Gold.
ReplyDeleteMaybe some bank is selling to raise $.
Indians have been 'mad' about gold throughout centuries. They've got temple walls full of gold(recently found x$Billion worth gold, diamonds and coins). That's why foreigners came to loot. If anyone could ever find out exact amount of privatly held gold by Indians, I am sure most gold ever mined would be found in India. Crazy.
Gold just took off with liberal credit in 2003(so just an inflation hedge) or hedge against fiat collapse.
ICan
Look out below! Boy I missed that guess. The head fake looks more like a Fullback off-tackle.
ReplyDelete"EU banks selling 'crown jewels' for cash" -bloomberg.com/2011-11-13
ReplyDeleteUnder pressure from regulators to bolster capital.
BB ruined my turn-around Tuesday!
ReplyDeleteI'm growing to dislkie that man.
@ICan
ReplyDeleteDXY's going to close over 80 today.
It can!
Itcan
Ican
ICan
EMA(50) 1225. so still range bound.
ReplyDelete@Rock,
re DXY. We'll SEE!
@ICan
ReplyDelete"Will See".
I see 80.33.
Can it go up from here? Sure. Weaker Euro coming. I think.
Manny - sorry, got stuck in a project. No, I don't think the GOP would be any differnt at all, but I don't think that the Clinton Presidency would have 1. ruined their mandate by passing a very unpopular health care law right out of the gate and 2. I don't think a Clinton presidency would have folded or caved as often as Obama did in a sad attempt at "bi-partisanship". Does that make sense? So no, no difference in the GOP, but a far stronger presidency than what we've had with the big O.
ReplyDeleteRock - I think Merkel is doing what she's doing because she knows full well how rotten the banks and governments in Europe and the US have been. I don't think that the banks in the EU are refusing to take haircuts because they are greedy (although they are indeed very greedy). I think that they're refusing to take hair-cuts because even a 10% haircut on their debt would cause the entire house of cards to come down. Banks in the EU are leveraged at 30-50 to 1? And that's just what's on their books, wouldn't be surprised if the actual number is closer to 100/1. . . .
Gotcha Thor.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you about the leverage in the system. Until that's resolved one way or another, we are going to lurch from crisis to crisis, as they scramble to buy time. Meanwhile, Rome (the real economy) flat lines.
Too much leverage = zombie economies.
ReplyDeleteAn epic fail by the so-called "elites".
What I can't figure out, is if these people actually believe that what they're doing is going to make things better for us in the end? Or if they are just trying to bring us down slowly and/or trying to get all their own money out before things collapse. Or maybe they know there's really nowhere anyone is going to be able to safely secure a good deal of wealth. Imagine trying to get your 20 million dollar estate in either gold or cash.
ReplyDelete@Thor
ReplyDeleteOh. Thanks. I didn't know the Euroleverage was so intense.
sheesh - how did I miss this? Ican, is this news to you?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/12/india%E2%80%99s-economy
EXPECTATIONS for India’s economic growth rate have been sliding inexorably. In the early spring there was still heady talk about 9-10% being the new natural rate of expansion, a trajectory which if maintained would make the country an economic superpower in a couple of decades. Now things look very different. The latest GDP growth figure slipped to 6.9% and industrial production numbers just released, on December 12th, showed a decline of 5.1% compared with the previous period, a miserable state of affairs. The slump looks broadly based, from mining to capital goods, and in severity compares with that experienced at the height of the financial crisis, in February 2009, when a drop of 7.2% took place. Bombast is turning to panic.
@Thor(6:570
ReplyDelete"Is this news to me?"
No.
India deblibertaly slowed down growth! Many int.rate hikes and foreign fund withdrawls Too much inflation, too fast is not good where masses are more worried about rising prices than growth.
Politicians FEAR inflation. Many state elections are coming up in Spring 2012.
I am not worried about India slowing.
ICan
ICAN - thank you!, I'll file that away then :-)
ReplyDelete@Thor(7:35)
ReplyDeleteIf you're or intend to invest in Ems - please do your own due diligence. Don't take my word.
Thanks
ICan
The insanity over at the Euro Circus Show continues........no sign of the confidence fairy yet though.
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/mario-and-the-confidence-fairy/#postComment
At this rate, our planned trip to Italy could be VERY cheap. LOL.
Bought some GLD for a short-term swing.
ReplyDeleteThought this was very good.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/from-bad-to-worse-for-the-imf.html
@emmy: I sold all of my GLD that I had been accumulating since last year. Nice little tidy profit, I must say. May get back in again, but not yet.
ReplyDeleteDumped it last week. Along with a few other risk assets. Paring down in anticipation of some gnarly shit next year.
ReplyDeleteGreen shoots? News: 3M offers early retirement to 4,900 employees: (Reuters) - 3M Co is offering early retirement incentives ... reut.rs/uKpsxl
ReplyDeleteICAN - Not to worry, emerging markets are the absolute last place I would ever invest money. I've been of the firm belief for years that both China and India are the largest bubbles in history and that when those bubbles eventually pop a decade or so from now, it'll make The Depression in this country look like a cake walk.
ReplyDeleteManny - you're going to Italy too eh? I'm supposed to go with my best friend in 2013!
ReplyDelete@emmanuel117
ReplyDeletePlat, sil, cop and paladium are all trending down.
Wish you the very very best of luck on Gold.
@mannwich:
ReplyDeleteYour 11:13
I think you might buy some Sistene Chapel while you're there. Probably not get much better price than now...
Was reading an article yesterday about Italy and their mostly cash economy. I'll try to dig it up, but I was surprised to find out that Italians in general have low debt and high savings. Their country may be addicted to debt, but the citizens of the country seem to be doing just fine.
ReplyDeleteI just saw the funniest commercial on Bloomie: the announcer was saying that banking at Citibank was as easy as setting up your voicemail, and in the background this guy is constantly being interrupted as he tries to record his greeting.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, Thor. Planning a September Italy trip. Finally time to do it.
ReplyDeleteLove it, emmy. Perhaps I'll put a bid in?
New post is available. Have a look at the SPY chart.
ReplyDeleteLooking mighty fugly right now. Saw a little mini reversal at the gym, as equities tried to rally, but looks like that failed badly.
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