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Thursday, September 29, 2011

This week’s herds report

I stole Thorsday again.

So Rock is back looking at relative strength to see where money is currently flowing. The list is sorted best to worst relative strength, and the numbers indicate the percentages of these herds are leading or trailing the S&P index. If you have a favorite herd that’s not here, let me know and I’ll add it. I try to select sector-based herds which are hard to find for some sectors. Some herds are balanced across several sectors, and I don’t follow them. The Dow Jones money report shows money is flowing out of the markets, making low volumes cause big swings (VXX is at almost 52 as of this writing).

Note that Gold and Silver are now in the worst positions. Just a few short weeks ago, they were the only ones making money. How quickly sentiments change, and a clear indicator you can’t turn your back for a minute. I got stopped out of my gold investment positions, but haven’t reinvested in anything. Looks like oils are also getting tanked. And the Solars are still in the cellar.

Notice money is flowing into banks. I find this very surprising, but maybe the banks were so beat up that investors think it’s time to get back in. I think the jury's still out, in case PIIGS write down their debt. I don’t trade financials, for religious reasons. IAK is insurance, and qualifies in the “financials”.

Note also $DJTCNS has turned around in the last 5 days. Again, the housing sector was so beat down, it may be that the housing materials (the first to recover in a real recovery) is seeing some investment. $DJTCNS has LOWE, HD, Owens-corning, etc. It’s not the homebuilders.

On an individual note, AAPL and IBM have both had nice pullbacks, and it may be time to put them on your watchlist. The Nasdaq has been trailing the S&P for the last several days, so I’m looking for a continued downpressure on the markets, Like I said before, I’d like to see a hit or crossover of 1140 before we get a turnaround, to make a meaningful move up. We’re almost there, I’m thinking by Monday, with a Turnaround Tuesday of next week.

The format of this table is ETF, 5 day relative strength, and relative strength trend.
IAK 0.031 Rising
$BKX 0.03 Rising
UCC 0.03 Flat
$DJTCNS 0.027 Rising
KIE 0.026 Rising
XLF 0.023 Rising
ITA 0.022 Rising
KBE 0.022 Rising
ITB 0.019 Flat
KRE 0.016 Flat
$DJTATO 0.014 Rising
$DJT 0.013 Rising
$DJTENG 0.013 Rising
DIG 0.013 Rising
IGV 0.013 Rising
KCE 0.012 Flat
IXJ 0.011 Falling
XHB 0.011 Flat
$DRG.X 0.009 Flat
$DJTFOB 0.008 Falling
USO 0.008 Rising
$OIX.X 0.006 Rising
IHI 0.006 Falling
$HIG.X 0.005 Flat
UTH 0.004 Flat
$DJTCHE 0.003 Rising
IXI 0.001 Rising
SLX 0 Rising
XLU -0.001 Falling
XRT -0.001 Falling
KOL -0.002 Rising
$DJULTC -0.003 Falling
XLK -0.003 Falling
XLV -0.003 Falling
$DJTFVS -0.004 Rising
VHT -0.007 Falling
IYH -0.008 Falling
IHE -0.009 Falling
IYE -0.01 Rising
RTH -0.01 Falling
SMH -0.01 Falling
GEX -0.011 Rising
XLP -0.011 Falling
BBH -0.012 Falling
$DJTTR -0.013 Falling
IYZ -0.013 Flat
ICF -0.015 Flat
IRET -0.02 Falling
DBA -0.021 Flat
$SOX.X -0.027 Falling
IBB -0.029 Falling
XME -0.029 Rising
XBI -0.034 Falling
$DJTBAS -0.035 Rising
XOP -0.039 Flat
XES -0.04 Rising
OIH -0.051 Rising
TAN -0.069 Flat
GLD -0.1 Falling
GDX -0.103 Rising
SLV -0.174 Flat

66 comments:

  1. Money coming out of div stocks? NLY and Trp.to down.

    Another note, DOJ investigating Chinese ADRs? Reuters and G&M reporting.

    "Chinese dual listed stocks hit hard" - www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  2. 1139.93.

    Well, that's as close as you can get. We popped back up off that level.

    I'm going long again tonight. I mean, I have to. I said so, right?

    But I would rather see a significant push below the 1140. $.07 just doesn't cut it, as far as significance goes.....

    ReplyDelete
  3. @ICan:

    I think we posted and commented about the Chinese stocks, was it last year?

    There is no way to validate their numbers because if they lie to the exchange, and submit false financial reports, it is unlikely they'll be caught, and if they are caught, it's not an extraditable offense, and they're likely to get a pat on the back by the Chinese Government.

    I wish I could tell you a story, but I can't.

    Just don't think companies over here don't submit false financials. who was it who used to say that the bank's financials were all lies? Um.....I forget her name right now. It'll come to me.....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Rock! Been workin' from home today. I always work so much more when I work at home :(

    We leave for our trip tomorrow, I'll try to check in and put up some pics, especially from NYC, I'll get some pics of the Wall Street protests and of course Ground Zero, the Memorial is open and I can't wait to see it!

    Manny, then on to Boston around the 10th I think. Where's the best places to see the leaves! :-) SO excited to go back to Boston, do you think there are haunted houses in Salem? We're both kinda giant kids. . .

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Rock,

    Your 5:29,

    I wonder why all the propaganda now? We(anyone who has lived in Asia) know how things work there. It was Jim O'Neal(GS) who promoted the BRICS, and now everyone is becoming Jim Chanos. There was a several pages article in the G&M on Chanos today. After they have been stung by See-No -Forest.

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  6. And one of these days I'm going to have to do a write-up of San Francisco. I hadn't been up there in almost four years and have been there twice this year and twice more. It's changed so much.

    Rock, have you been up to the city since you came home? It's all so different, I couldn't believe even the skyline was visibly different from the last time I was there. And The Peninsula is unrecognizable to me from when I grew up there.

    ReplyDelete
  7. @Thor

    Yep. We have an office there. Although I'm "retired" I have to go up there 2X per week.

    You're a little early for the leaves. Usually around Oct 10 it's pretty much at it's peak to the north of Boston.

    You may have to drive up to the white mountains which should be spectacular, even though the Granite Guy (the Man in the Mountain)lost his nose and chin. Be sure you don't do that drive on a weekend because you'll have all the other Flatlanded Leaflookers out with you. Or, get a bus tour. They're cheap. Drop by Sunny's Diner pick up a cheesesteak to eat on the bus. The box lunches leave a little to be desired.

    Be sure to eat at a Weathervane restaurant. Skip Legal Seafood. Be sure to eat at the Hilltop Steakhouse on Rt. 1. Be sure to have Durgan Park's prime rib. And there are some north end's Italian restaurants. If you want a truly excellent meal, Mama Francheska's there is great. Joe Tecci's has gone down, in my opinion. And if you want a great great Italian feast, and a beautiful Italian atmosphere, eat at the Price Grotto at the Prince Spaghetti Factory. It's a bit of a drive from the city, but so worth it. And if you drive by UNH on the way up to the mountains, look out the right side for a house that has a 60 degree slope roof and solar panels on it. I designed that. They copied it.

    ReplyDelete
  8. @Thor:

    And, most importantly, have a great time!

    ReplyDelete
  9. @Rock,

    NFLX - Tradermike.net

    @Thor,

    Happy holidays!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Rock - Thank you! You are a wealth of awesome travel tips! I can't wait till I'm that well traveled!

    I'll definitely keep an eye out for the house you designed!

    ReplyDelete
  11. So this is a law that just passed here in CA, Governor just signed it.

    When Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill to expedite environmental lawsuits brought against Downtown's proposed Farmers Field NFL stadium this week, he also signed AB900, a complementary bill that fast-tracks environmental lawsuits brought against certain projects costing more than $100 million (many lawsuits meant to stop or slow big projects are brought on environmental grounds, attacking the mandatory environmental impact reports). Reporting on the Tuesday signing ceremony, Daily News writer (and Curbed alum) Dakota Smith notes that AB900 could affect publicly-funded projects, in addition to private ones. Most notably, the subway to the Westside (the Purple Line extension) could potentially escape years of delay. Metro is considering building a subway station in central Century City, which would require tunneling under Beverly Hills High, something the school board is adamantly against and will likely sue to stop. If they did, the case would go right to the court of appeals and be heard within 175 days under this new legislation.
    State senator calls the subway "a natural">>

    At the signing ceremony, State Senator Alex Padilla, who drafted the AEG legislation, told Smith that, "The subway is a natural [for AB900] from a job-creation standpoint, from an investment standpoint, from an emission reduction and air quality standpoint."


    This is great, there are a lot of large projects stalled here in Hollywood because of CEQA lawsuits. All of that goes away. It also massively speeds up all large construction projects. No more years of lawsuits.

    AND - this was signed into law by a Democratic Governor and passed by in a state that is overwhelmingly Democrat. We're not quite as far to the left as some people make us out to be ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  12. This will end well.

    Unleashing the Chinese Investor

    Beijing allows mainland Chinese to buy Hong Kong-listed shares

    ReplyDelete
  13. I missed that guess for my overnight, didn't I?

    I want to see a break below 1120.

    ReplyDelete
  14. No window dressing this quarter?


    @Rock,

    Cobra is calling S&P at 1000. See yesterday evening thread, comment section.

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  15. Testing. Comments being eaten? Has Manny been blacklisted? LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Yet another right-wing libertarian hypocrite. Ho-hum.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/09/friedrich-hayek-joins-ayn-rand-as-a-hypocritical-user-of-medicare.html

    ReplyDelete
  17. Manny - I got your email, I don't know why the Spam filter keeps grabbing you :-( There's no way to change the settings either. . . .

    ReplyDelete
  18. I think I'm good now loggin in, Thor. Think that was the problem.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Manny - hah, I didn't know Ayn Rand collected SS and Medicare- hypocrite indeed. I like this quote form the article:

    To quote Blue Texan at FireDogLake:

    And before any glibertarians come back with “but…but…she paid into it so there’s no hypocrisy” in comments, Rand herself wrote,

    There can be no compromise on basic principles. There can be no compromise on moral issues. There can be no compromise on matters of knowledge, of truth, of rational conviction.

    Adding an extra layer of crow to the deliciousness, the Ayn Rand Center for the Center for F*ck You I Got Mine Individual Rights has an article on its website right now titled, “Social Security is Immoral“.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Pay for failure still proliferating in publicly-traded companies. What a surprise.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/30/business/outsize-severance-continues-for-executives-even-after-failed-tenures.html

    ReplyDelete
  21. Ugliness abounds. Think next week all hell is going to break loose as things finally break downward for real. I'm calling it here first.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Manny - ooooh, tell me how you came to that. . . I'm intrigued :-)

    In Vegas at the in-laws for my better half's 40th. As horrible as housing is you'd never know it driving around. Still looks the same as it always has, just nowhere near the same amount of construction. Heading down to the strip this evening for a show, will report back later on how tourism looks this time around.

    Believe it or not there are still homes under construction here, not a whole lot, but apparently there's a whole subset of buyers who are not interested in "used housing".

    ReplyDelete
  23. Yes, pay for non-performance.

    Apotheker will walk away with 35 mil more or less for being fired.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2011/09/21/h-p-ceo-apotheker-could-walk-away-with-35-million/

    I shoulda been fired. Could have been good.....

    ReplyDelete
  24. "Greece to miss deficit targets". financialpost.com

    Nothing new.

    WallStree protests. American fall(a la Arab Spring). There is one planned in Canada. The biggest province in Canada is set to elect a left wing govt(polls). Elections coming up in Ontario.

    Markets in trouble. In India, intrest rates on savings account are around 8-9%. Negative, but still beat the stock market negatives.

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  25. Bearfest everywhere from BI to ZH. But as Cobra says Mon could open green. Still looking for S&P 1000. Momo Monday? Earnings season begins too.

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  26. Just looking at DXY, seems like no momo Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Koch Brothers.

    "GOP Mega-Donor Koch Brothers' Company Tied To Global Criminal Misdeeds in a Bombshell Article" - Businessinsider.com

    And

    "Koch brothers flout law getting richer with secret Iran sales" - bloomberg.com

    "Sold equipment to Iran in violation of U.S. trade ban".

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  28. It looks like the games that have been played may finally be catching up to the market.

    Although this has the potential to cause great pain to many people, it also seems like a necessary step that will help bring about a true and honest correction.

    We can only hope so.

    Mangy Mutt

    I

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thor - first congratulations on taking the time and effort to enter your 40's a physically fit and hard working man.

    If memory serves correctly you celebrated your 40th last weekend and this weekend is your SO's 40th.

    That is pretty cool. you can not get much closer in age without being twins.

    My brother and I are separated by one year and one day, although it made celebrating birthdays easier, I don't think my parents planned it that way.

    I hope you guys had a great time in Vegas.

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  30. New Post - But shamelessly StolenOctober 3, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    Dan (Dastro) has a new post on his site, I know many of you including myself enjoyed his perspective, but may not have a link to his site.

    Here it is.

    http://www.dastrostockmarket.com/

    Dan has his "Comment" section turned off so I was unable to let him know I was posting his work here.

    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  31. I wonder if Dastro knows the comment section can be turned off. I forget the default.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Looking for my Dow 10K hat. Again.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Oh, it was good to be short today.

    Since we closed below where I think there's support around 1118, with significant volume, I'm guessing after a Turn-Around-Tuesday open, we continue down until we find some buyers.

    If what Bloomberg said is true, the new money that is coming into the market is from corporate share buyback programs, there's no way a company is going to buyback its shares during a downtrend. So the volume will need to come from buyers, and after the uptrend is established, then the new money will enter.

    Cobra's probably right. We might see 1000.

    ReplyDelete
  34. I say below 1,000 again before all said and done, and maybe sooner than we think.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I have been trying to post since this morning, but blogger kept taking my posts.

    Anyone experience this?

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  36. Yep. Had similar experience recently.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Cotton holding up. India will not have a bumper crop this year. Floods in my state. 10% of output may be affected. Not a suggestion for trade - just an observation!


    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  38. @mannwich

    Hayek would have been an idiot to turn away a free lunch from the State.

    Anyone would be.

    For what it's worth, after I was wrongly terminated back in 2005' I was eligible and approved for unemployment insurance.

    I could have used it and it would have helped me out, bust I didn't take it.

    Guess I'm an idiot.

    Those sorts of articles...."you're a hypocrite....therefore your ideology is bullshit" are lame and miss the point....in fact...those types of assertions are juvenile and devoid of an intelligent counter-argument.

    But, who cares, really. The government will certainly rescue us all from whatever ails us.

    Hope you're all doing ok.

    ReplyDelete
  39. "The Occupied Wall Street Journal" reads one banner at the rally.

    ReplyDelete
  40. @Mannwich

    Blogger is so mean to me that I compose in notepad and cut-and-paste into the post a comment section. I find I often have to restart the browser to get into commenting.

    My symptom is that I can type, not cut and paste from another window, and then Post Comment fails and the comment field is cleared.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Down over 20% since the highs. We're in a "bear market", says Bloomberg.

    ReplyDelete
  42. I don't often comment on political stuff, but IMHO, if Chris Christie runs and becomes president, we'd better have a pretty strong VP because he shure looks like a candidate for a coronary, and the pressure of being President is not small.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Who Lost their DOW 10K HatOctober 4, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    Manniwch - ou were saying something about putting on your DOW 10K hat, well I happen to have an extra couple few - So put it on and we will party like it is 1999......Errrrrrrrr 1931.


    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  44. Rock - I hear you on the mean'O blogger thingy.

    Often times I will either type in the "Post comment" box and copy it before hitting post or just type it in a text editor, but yesterday, Blogger was in a particularly bad mood and would not let me pust a garsh darn thing.

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  45. What happens when we allow banks or any company to basically lie about their financial health?

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/bankings-self-inflicted-wounds/

    ReplyDelete
  46. @Mannwich:

    And why do you suppose we investigate and pewnish only Chinese shell companies?

    ReplyDelete
  47. @Rock: Because if we investigated our own large banks and companies, we'd find so much fraud that it would bring the system down, and all of the "important" peeps in our country. That's been the crux of not investigating or punishing anyone at the top since the crisis began. If they started peeling that rotten onion, there's no telling where it would stop and what they would find (and who it would implicate). If everyone's in on it, then nobody can be held responsible without the whole house of cards coming down. That's been the heart of "extend & pretend" from the get-go.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Boy, I sure hope American Airlines doesn't go out of business. I have almost 1/2 million miles in their bank. That's about 15 tickets.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Whither green shoots? Brown ones, maybe?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/business/economy/fed-chief-raises-doubts-on-recovery.html?hp

    ReplyDelete
  50. So Cotton is up 3%. as per my (9:36) Oct.3.

    Blogger seem to have issues with Internt Explorer. Try FireFox.

    ICan

    ReplyDelete
  51. Blogger Just Has IssuesOctober 4, 2011 at 7:38 PM

    Ican - Blogger just has issues....It kind of sucks.


    Again today I tried to post from work - NOTHING!!!!


    Grrrrrrrrr

    Mutt

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hey guys! Grettings from NYC! Manny, ick, you can't miss this place? :-P I think I'm getting too old to appreciate NY. It's neat to be here, but the noise, the grime, no sky, and what's with everyone wearing black. I walked around in a bright yellow shirt all day in protest ;-)

    I guess I'm just too used to the sunshine.

    are you guys checking the SPAM logs? they seem to be acting up again. . .

    ReplyDelete
  53. Oh! And went down to Wall Street today. Not surprised this protest isn't getting much bigger much faster. In San Francisco we call these people "professional protesters". Their cause is good, but most of these people look like bike messengers and street people. Didn't see too many "regular looking" people. Random signs claiming all sorts of things as well. Saw one woman with blue hair and a face full of piercings holding up a sign that said the government gave Wall Street Banks 20 trillion dollars. I'm not even sure if I could figure out where that comes from. . .

    Not to put down the protesters, or their cause, which we all know is a good one, was just hoping I'd see more regular people. Most people in SF ignore, and are annoyed by these kinds of protesters, and from the look of the people walking buy, so are the NYers. . .

    ReplyDelete
  54. HEY HEY - From a Bike Messanger :pOctober 5, 2011 at 12:46 AM

    Thor - It is GREAT to "hear" from you I hope you guys are having a great time.

    You have been fortunate to see several parts of the world, so if you are un-impressed with NYC that carries weight.

    I have always made eye contact with people and engaged them in body language this is something I learned early on due to sever hearing loss.

    I am extremely hard of hearing (From birth)and (Even though I have worn condoms on my ears for years it has not prevented me from getting hearing Aids) about 10 years ago I got a pair of hearing aids and Good God I can not tell you how it made me feel.

    I walked into Safeway and heard all the people and noise I never knew existed and walked straight out.

    So from a normal hearing person to say the noise is in NTC, is .....Well noisy it makes the phrase "noise Polushion" mean something.

    Anyway, thank you for showing up and sharing a very small part of your life with us.

    BTW - I always dress nice, present myself with authority (Hard to believe from a Mangy Ass Mutt) and know how to deal with very diverse groups of people - yet I know how the homeless and bike messagners live.

    Yes we have many choices in life, but in the end life is what it is - How do you know John Hancock was not a bike messenger?

    Life is weird...

    Very happy to hear from you.

    Mangy Mutt

    ReplyDelete
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