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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Wiretapping

Still waiting outside and like I mentioned past week I started to pay more attention at the price action.

Just one day was enough to demolish the s&p bringing it back to the previous week levels. The most probable move would be to consider the upside from a common sense standpoint, that’s why I don’t expect it inmediately.

What I expect is more like a repeat of the Aug 9-Aug 22 cycle. I mean a type of move that starts going up to stop and drop again causing more confusion about what direction is going to take.But this could be at a lower level than it is today.

So falling first, then look like is going to go up screaming but reverse back and then by the end of August a snap rally that in structure can resemble the late June rally, where corrections were rare for entire days.

Astrologically speaking Aug 29-30 looks like make it or break it. I’m still thinking that at that moment a rallly is going to start again instead of disaster.

There’s a lot of negative information and negative mood out there for causing an intense move down taking people by surprise.

The surprise will be that with bad news, let’s say Bernanke saying: no mas help (even though is not true, as a matter of perception will look like the market lost the Bernanke put reassurance) and the market goes up anyway. That will be surprising.

The recession is closer to an end than to start a second one. The recession was only one and continuos and the first hints that things are going to improve is when some banks finally get restructured or collapse in an “orderly way”.

I mentioned it three weeks ago, but still nothing happened about the banks. If it plays out the way I think it should be really soon.

In the past three years nothing substantive was done to improve the economic situation, only time was bought but the economic gauge is in the hands of the middle class, and until the root causes are faced about that group the economy is not going to move. The households are in recession not banks or multinationals.

And to finish just a jewel from Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html

“Wall Street aristocracy got $1.2 trillion in Fed’s secret loans”.

Please read carefully that article because that was supposed to be kept as secret stuff, so it offers a peak at the way they operate, and then consider if +/- 1.2 trillion cannot materially alter the course of a market if 20 banksters decide to do so.

And go back to 1907 and check if it was just the anonymous forces of the market reverting their opinions about market prices only or if J.P. Morgan was one of the hands altering the course of the market.

Now you probably realize why I’m trying to hone my skills applying Astrology.

I’m never going to be in that kind of meetings but no matter how secret they keep their talks I think there’s a way to listen to what their plans are.

Dan

55 comments:

  1. Dan - Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts and views with us.

    From how I perceive things, I am under the same mind set as you are that we are going to get some wild swings both ways, but the pressure of the market movers is going to be on the up side.

    They want the market prices to go up, because in their minds the higher the stock prices go the better the economy is. And as far as they are concerned they have worked too damn hard over the last couple years to let a few bears stop their advance.

    Of course we are in a Bear Market, so no matter how hard they try their efforts will eventually be for nothing, but they will try.

    Yes (Big) banks NEED to be cleared out and the sooner the better, but I personally see a double dip recession or (Depending on the persons view point) a second leg down in the current recession.

    But hopefully during the next election cycle there will be enuff like minded people to make their voices heard so we can go on to a real and honest economic recovery.

    Also you mentioned an article that outlined 1.2 Trillion in secret loans, but there was no link.

    Thanks Mangy Mutt

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  2. Looks like a break through recent resistance levels. Lets see if it can keep it up and close the gap created last week.

    Still a long way to go to 1190

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  3. @ Mutt
    Sorry, I corrrected the post adding the link.

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  4. Hey guys! So sorry I haven't been around much lately, please know it's not from lack of interest! Just insanely busy at work this summer for some reason :-(

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  5. BR has an interesting chart (Fork in the Road) comparing 2008 and 2010 SP at the time of the Jackson hole summit. What makes me think today is closer to 2008 than 2010 is gas prices; $.70/gallon higher today than 2010. I don't think Bernanke can QE 3 with these high prices.

    http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx

    mike

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  6. Mike - that's a good point. Goosing commodity prices might just throw us back into an inflationary spiral instead of the deflationary one it seems we are in right now.

    Prices go up too much again and we're screwed, the economy would tank.

    These guys seem like they're just busy re-arranging deck chairs :-/

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  7. hah, ironic - From The Economist.

    Debate

    America needs a new fiscal stimulus

    http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/737

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  8. I'm trying to figure out how exactly an Earthquake in Virginia could be felt in Toronto . . . we don't feel Earthquakes that far away here on the West Coast . . .

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  9. Thor – By no means am I a Seismologist, but I can play one on the internet, but only if you promise to take what I say with a grain of salt.

    I believe you would have to take into place, the depth of the earthquake, the ground terrain and possibly the type of earth quake it is.

    You are on top of two tectonic plates and when they slip it creates a very centralized zone and the depth of the earthquake is also fairly specific (Where the plates meet and slipped) Also what is the ground like in CA vs East Coast? And was it quick 30 seconds or was it for a few minutes?

    I have never felt a Cali Quack up here, but that does not mean we do not get seismic activity, the effects may just be lessened.

    Kind of like filling one balloon up with water and another with air, you might strike them with the same force, but if when you hit the balloon with water you let your hand stay on the balloon longer, will the waves travel a farther or less distance, maybe shock waves from different areas of the world travel differently?

    Or you could go with choice two – I have NO clue what I am actually talking about and should be sent home from work to drink beer and watch Oprah.

    Mangy Mutt

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  10. Or Maybe the people on the East Coast are more intuned to the feelings and emotions of Mother Earth and give a bigger damn about the enviorment then us West Coast folks so can feel it when the earth shakes.


    Hmmmmmm I wonder what Oprah will be giving away today......


    Mutt

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  11. Thank you Todd! Good call Mutt ;-)

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  12. bored tonight.

    Here's a good recipe for the post crash, apocalyptic world.

    recipe

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  13. Todd - Oh I dunno, I was planning on eating my neighbors ;-)

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  14. Random very local news item.

    http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/08/today_in_supermarkets_rip_weho_jons_west_la_vons_deathwatch.php

    I drive by this store every day on my way to work in the morning, it's on a busy corner. You see these sorts of buildings going up a lot in my part of LA and downtown. New Stadium coming at some point (we hope) large towers, entertainment complexes, the resident population of downtown is up 6% since 2008, more gentrification.

    They've really spent a lot of money here in the last decade on mass transit and urban renewal, specifically in Hollywood where I live, as well as the downtown core, where many people now live in new buildings and mixed use lofts. Driving here is a pain in the ass and these two parts of LA have been cleaned up enough for the people to come back, to be near the core, near mass transit. There's actually a trend with these younger kids to not have a car, believe it or not you can get around here pretty good these days on the subways and light rail. Of course I think a lot of that is just not being able to afford a car. It's expensive to rent here and some of these kids make very little money.

    Anyhoo, not sure why I told that story, I guess to highlight the contradictions that exist out there even today. The unemployment rate here is still very high, yet for the past 5 years I've seen quite a bit of urban renewal and growth.

    Don't get me started on the freeways, you all read about Carmageddon, but that's just a small part of what's being done, all the freeways are being upgraded, widened, more car pool lanes put in. I don't know where the money's coming from, but there sure seems to be a lot of it to go around for infrastructure here.

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  15. LOL Todd! Sounds yummy.

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  16. Todd - Thanks for the link on earth quacks - It kind of stood to reason the density would make waves travel farther or less, but the difference in temperature was a little surprising.

    Mutt

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  17. Thor - Just make sure you say your prayers and eat everything on your plate.

    "Dear Lord, thank you for the years of feast that had allowed my nieghbors to plump up so nicely"

    "Dear Lord, thank you for the years easy living that have allowed my nieghbors to become tender and supple."

    "Dear Lord, thank you for giving me the forsight to stay and remain strong and anticpate this time of need, so I could over power my weak , fat, but tasty nieghbors"

    Mutt

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  18. Todd - I am origanlly from the Eastern Washington area a couple years ago we decided to move over to the West Side of the state.

    Where I was from it was nothing to see stray dogs (Hmmm Mangy Mutts) normally they were loners, but sometimes they would form packs and attack other living things, dogs, cats, cattle and ocasionally humans. I always figured in the worst case sinario they would be good...Ok Decent eats.

    Well when we moved over here to the West Side there were squirrels...LOTS of them, unlike the East Side were a squirrel was a rare sighting, over here squirrels run wild and there are no wild dogs (I wonder if the squirrels eat them?)

    Anyway, the rat soup reciept you posted earlier will work just as good with squirrels.

    Mutt

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  19. Small Town Living in a Big CityAugust 24, 2011 at 1:03 AM

    Thor (10:58) - interesting stuff, it kind of sounds like small town America has met up with Big City U.S.A.

    I would be hard pressed to think it is just localized in L.A though (Mannwich, Rock - Any others from big cities, it would be nice to get your take)

    Kind of like Barny Fife and Opis meet Sarah Jessica Parker.

    Maybe they will rename the streets Maybarry And Hashish.

    Mutt

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  20. Mutt - There are high end condos built on top of Mayberry. Sold off in the 70's :-P

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  21. Steve Jobs has resigned, AAPL halted.

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  22. Can't be a good sign for his health, poor guy. Well he's a legend, that's for sure. The Edison of our times?

    I don't think he's had all that much involvement in the day to day running of the company the last year has he? I can't imagine this is going to affect Apple too much, at least in the near term.

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  23. love the gold down trend (for now)August 24, 2011 at 11:45 PM

    Emmy, (from the last thread), I'll try not to die on you :)

    I'm pretty sure the third wave in gold is done as of Mon night -- we're likely headed to under $1500 in the next few months (at least under $1600). I think the fifth wave will go above at least $4000.

    On CNBC's Fast Money today, one of the "traders" had a chart showing how gold's recent run "eerily correlated" with the 79/80 top in gold. I'm not quite sure how they did that -- this last run went 30% in 2 months. The 79/80 run was 100% in it's last 2 months. I think they took the last 15 days of gold's run in 79/80 and stretched it out over the last 7 months of this year so the percentage gains would look similar (even though the speed of those changes would be a full order of magnitude different!)

    Steve

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  24. Buffet bails out BAC. Nice. Way to perpetuate a thoroughly corrupt, "bankrupt" system, Warren.

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  25. Well, watching the gap close this morning at the open from last weeks opening gap down. Almost makes you want to become a true believer of tech analysis.

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  26. Manny - yeah, but is 5 billion really going to do much at this point? ;-)

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  27. Probably not, Thor. More can-kicking.

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  28. Nice little slow slide in BAC after the news is wearing off. Looks like Buffet got some pretty sweet terms. I wish I could get 6% somewhere.

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  29. The O man talking about a plan to re-fi all Fraudie-backed mortages at current rates around 4ish? Wow, things are getting desperate now.

    I just re-fi'd last year at 4.875. Wonder if our mortgage is Fraudie-backed? If so, I want in on the free ponies too. Would free up some more dough that I can hoard, I mean, save, I mean spend. LOL.

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  30. @Thor: T has a pretty nice dividend yield.

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  31. Manny - I did not know that!

    I was wondering about that refi, that's a pretty huge number of mortgages potentially refinancing. Will that really do much though? Or just extend and pretend once again? We still aren't getting anywhere near the core of what needs to be done to get us on a better footing economically.

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  32. Hah - looks like the Unions have finally figured out what O is really about.


    AFL-CIO head: Labor to ditch Dems
    By BYRON TAU | 8/25/11 11:43 AM

    Richard Trumka says the labor movement will build up their own political structures and organizations.

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  33. Finally, Thor. Like I've said, I can this evolving into four political parties, which actually makes a lot of sense, when you think about it. Will likely take some time to evolve though.

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  34. Manny, I like that idea. You see the Liberal wing of the Democrats spinning out?

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  35. Yep, and same for Tea Party on the right. It would allow more ideas to be heard. I say let it flow.

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  36. And more people, outside of pure monied interests, to be truly represented.

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  37. Here is my take on the Freddie Mac Refinance.

    A few years back both Freddie and Fannie started buying up home loans, which pretty much guaranteed the loans and this of course allowed banks to become sloppy with the loan process as they gave loans to people who could not and should not have bought homes, which helped bring on inflated home prices and spurred the housing bubble.

    But of course the banks did not stop there they also offered and sold Credit Default Swaps, which helped cloud a lot of titles and obscured the legal owner of the title. And this of course has caused massive headaches to home owners and banks a like.

    One of the only ways to re-establish title ownership is to have the borrower come in and re-sign for the loan, this now puts a clean (er) title in the banks hands.

    Since Freddie and Fanny own A LOT of the debt that has obscured titles, what better way is there to get a clean title then to offer people lower loan rates and make them want to come in.

    In addition each re-finance can be counted as a “sale” and what better way to show the housing market is picking up, then by having “sales”?

    So my take on Freddie offering 4% loans is it is just another way to screw the middle class as extend and pretend continues on.

    Mutt

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  38. Even More Middle Class ScrewingAugust 25, 2011 at 1:48 PM

    Warren Buffet is not going to do a DAMN thing that he does not feel will directly benefit him.

    This is just and only my assumption on him offering to buy $5, 000,000,000. BAC stocks.

    1) He gets a guarantee from the goberment (You and I the tax payer) that he will always be able to collect his money back.

    2) As long as he holds the stocks he gets a ridiculous 6% interst on his 5 Billion and where else is anyone else going to get 6%?

    3) He gets to look and sound all important as the middle class gets screwed again.

    Mutt

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  39. Who do you all think is going to be president two years from now? Take a guess. I'll go first. I have no idea and that's kinda scary :-(

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  40. No you Poopy Face I will be the next President.

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  41. Ladies...Ladies...Please settle down.

    Both of you are so stable in the head and clear thinking woman who no matter how many kids your children have out of wedlock or how hard your husbands try to pretend they are gay, you both still stand by them.

    You show us little people what we can aspire to, what we can achieve (If we were also psychotic)

    I suggest you run on the very firstist EVER Palin/Bachmann - Bachmann/Palin ticket where for the first six month you Palin are the acting President then the next six month you Bachmann are President and you keep switching back and forth and that means you two wonderful ladies can be elected President 4 times (Pssst....That is 16 years)

    And then all Americans will be able to sit on their front porch singing "Cum By Ya" as they Pray away the Day.

    But seriously if either one of you shows me your titties I will vote for you - PROMISE

    Mangy Mutt

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  42. Thor - I think we as a society, country and people are FINALLY getting to the point we are fed up with the so called "Leaders" of both parties.

    I do not believe we have even come close to reaching the tipping point.....But it is in sight (10-15 years) Where people want a true and honest leader. People who are proud of who they are, people who know they can not make everyone happy, people who are willing to make gutsy desitions and to HELL with the "popular choice"

    But people like that tend to like to live out side the lime light, they tend to be people like you, Rock, Dan, Emmanuel, Mannwich, Benn22, AAIP and so many others that it makes it unfair to name any, cuz you see any of the above knows they have special insight in their own right, but are not afraid to take advice from others, because no matter how special they know they are, they also know there is always someone who knows more then them.

    If a truly humble person like that does not arise, then there is a VERY good chance that in 10-15 years we get a leader like Adolf. (Then we are FUCKED)

    But I have very little say over what will happen, so untill that time, I will write in my choice for President as Howard The Duck or maybe even Smokey The Bear or Whinne the Poo.

    Mangy Mutt

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  43. So Banana Ben says no more QE NOW, but likely will be some form of it in '12? Is he merely waiting for commodities to crash and then he can step in? If so, won't speculators, I mean, "markets", simply anticipate this and keep prices high anyway? Or higher than is justified by the current market conditions.

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  44. Todd - Brilliant, and so true!

    Manny, he's afraid that if he starts QE3 he'll be "treated pretty badly" down in Texas.

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  45. That is perfect, Todd! Nobody has a freaking clue (now more than ever, I think) where this thing is headed.

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  46. well if fed day speeches hold true, we'll be back where we were this morning within the week.

    Think there is more down than up over the next couple of months.

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  47. Wonder how long before both bulls AND bears give up on this market?

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  48. This post just boggles my mind. How long are we the sheeple going to take it? Seriously? Bring back the guillotines for these criminal enterprises.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/how-chase-ruined-lives-of-people-who-paid-off-their-mortgages.html

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  49. Is it just me or do all the news casters seem disappointed that there's not more disaster to report?

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